Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

[Magellan]

How many newspolls now is it that Turnbull has lost?

Must be getting close to the magic number, although have they all been in a row?

[mighty_tiger_79]

How many newspolls now is it that Turnbull has lost?

Must be getting close to the magic number, although have they all been in a row?

Yeah all in a row

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[Psyber]

It is not hard to get caught by overseas law changes we don't hear about here...

It doesn't matter because I'm not in politics, but in 2007 I checked my potential UK citizenship and was entitled only to "right of abode" not citizenship.
However under changes in British law in 2009 it appears I am now a dual citizen.

(I was motivated to check in 2007 because I was thinking of staying in the UK for 12 months or so and touring Europe on a British passport for the convenience of it, and I rechecked recently out of pure curiosity stimulated by our current events.)

[Dogwatcher]

It is not hard to get caught by overseas law changes we don't hear about here...

It doesn't matter because I'm not in politics, but in 2007 I checked my potential UK citizenship and was entitled only to "right of abode" not citizenship.
However under changes in British law in 2009 it appears I am now a dual citizen.

(I was motivated to check in 2007 because I was thinking of staying in the UK for 12 months or so and touring Europe on a British passport for the convenience of it, and I rechecked recently out of pure curiosity stimulated by our current events.)

Which is why you'd think politicians would check every time they nominate/renominate.

[bennymacca]

If you had to sign a stat dec saying you weren’t a dual citizen would you recheck or would you just assume it’s ok because you checked 10 years ago?

[Dogwatcher]

If it meant your job was under threat, I'd reckon it would be something a smart person would check every time.

[Grenville]

If you had to sign a stat dec saying you weren’t a dual citizen would you recheck or would you just assume it’s ok because you checked 10 years ago?

Correct. Ignorance is no excuse in the eyes of the law?

[mighty_tiger_79]

JA wins Bennelong with a reduced margin

[Grenville]

JA wins Bennelong with a reduced margin

Fairly comfortable win in the end, made JA's ringhole twitch for a while but in the end not enough of a swing to can him.

[Jimmy_041]

JA wins Bennelong with a reduced margin

Fairly comfortable win in the end, made JA's ringhole twitch for a while but in the end not enough of a swing to can him.

Shitten’s ring hole is twitching now

[Magellan]

JA wins Bennelong with a reduced margin

Fairly comfortable win in the end, made JA's ringhole twitch for a while but in the end not enough of a swing to can him.

Shitten’s ring hole is twitching now

Why? He's in no worse a position that he was 24 hours ago. Malcolm's thanking his lucky stars, though, that's for sure.

[Q.]

JA wins Bennelong with a reduced margin

Fairly comfortable win in the end, made JA's ringhole twitch for a while but in the end not enough of a swing to can him.

Shitten’s ring hole is twitching now

Really? A five percent swing to Labor is huge.

[Magellan]

JA wins Bennelong with a reduced margin

Fairly comfortable win in the end, made JA's ringhole twitch for a while but in the end not enough of a swing to can him.

Shitten’s ring hole is twitching now

Really? A five percent swing to Labor is huge.

Yes. That said, its roughly the standard swing for byelections as I understand. Not sure one could extrapolate that swing across the rest of the country to make the argument that Labor now has an election winning swing (which Shorten claimed last night).

[Q.]

[quote="mighty_tiger_79"]JA wins Bennelong with a reduced margin

Fairly comfortable win in the end, made JA's ringhole twitch for a while but in the end not enough of a swing to can him.

Shitten’s ring hole is twitching now

Really? A five percent swing to Labor is huge.

Yes. That said, its roughly the standard swing for byelections as I understand. Not sure one could extrapolate that swing across the rest of the country to make the argument that Labor now has an election winning swing (which Shorten claimed last night).[/quote]I read that stat as, when the swing is against the government of the day that average is 4%

Not the average of all swings

[DOC]

I think a swing of 5% across a general election would see a change in Government.

[Magellan]

I think a swing of 5% across a general election would see a change in Government.

It would, most definitely, but whether that’s a probable occurrence based on one electorate viewed in isolation is highly debatable IMHO.

[DOC]

Agreed. This was very different by election for a number of reasons which makes it harder to judge.

Having the incumbent member standing has possibly not happened before and I think this helped his own cause.

Labor had Sam Sam a Disastrous Man which did not help one bit.

[Jimmy_041]

4.something swing in a by-election is the average so 5% is nothing considering the "star" Labor candidate and a government completely on the nose

Now that Shitten has used Mediscare in a general and by-election, and lost both, is that a mandate for the government to sell it off?

[Magellan]

4.something swing in a by-election is the average so 5% is nothing considering the "star" Labor candidate and a government completely on the nose

Now that Shitten has used Mediscare in a general and by-election, and lost both, is that a mandate for the government to sell it off?

Would be very unusual for a government to rely on an opposition's scare campaign tactic as a policy platform. The people have to actively support a proposition in order to claim it as a mandate.

[am Bays]

4.something swing in a by-election is the average so 5% is nothing considering the "star" Labor candidate and a government completely on the nose

Now that Shitten has used Mediscare in a general and by-election, and lost both, is that a mandate for the government to sell it off?

What's most interesting is the polls last week (Galaxy and Newspol) were showing a 50:50 TPP mid week with Friday Newspol (IIRC) having the result 51:49 to the LNP. Currently it's 54.8:45.2 a swing of 4.9%. http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bennelong-by-election-2017/results/. How could they get it so wrong?

Yes polls are only a sample and there is always a margin of error but this it well outside the usual 3%.

I thought it would be much closer than what it was given Kristina was running the fact it was only a 5% swing has to be under the ALPs expectations privately.