Which party has "the right" to govern?

Labor, Liberal, Greens, Democrats? Here's the place to discuss.

Which party has "the right" to govern

Poll ended at Mon Aug 30, 2010 12:05 pm

Greens
1
3%
Labor
9
26%
Liberal
12
35%
None of the above
12
35%
 
Total votes : 34

Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby CK » Wed Aug 25, 2010 4:05 pm

am Bays wrote:
redandblack wrote:If all seats maintain the current situation, ALP/Green will have 73, LNP 73, Ind's 4.

If Labor lose Corangamite, it will be 72/74 and I think Abbott will form a gov't.

If Labor hold C'mite and win one of Hasluck or Brisbane, it would be 74/72.

aB, CK, does this look correct?


I concur R&B, my feeling is that your statement I've bolded will be the most likely outcome.


Concur also, and JohnnyG raises a good point - the AEC site is not giving fully consistent figures in some seats which is a little confusing.
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby JohnnyG » Wed Aug 25, 2010 5:35 pm

This is rather fascinating having the AEC website in the background on my computer and watching the figures fluctuating as the count goes on.
At the start of the day, it looked quite probable/possible that the Coalition would get 74 seats and with the margin in Corangamite gradually decreasing to their favour.

Now, at 4:18pm, ALP has 71 + Greens 1
and LNP 72
Independents 4
Doubtful: Brisbane (Libs 490 ahead) and Corangamite (Lab 580 ahead)

giving the scenario of LNP 73, ALP 72+Greens 1
and 4 independents

Watch for this to change again as more postal/absentee etc votes come in
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby bulldogproud2 » Thu Aug 26, 2010 3:18 pm

We always seem to forget that the WA Nationals are not part of the coalition. We have one more independent and one less member of the coalition. ;)
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby am Bays » Thu Aug 26, 2010 3:24 pm

bulldogproud2 wrote:We always seem to forget that the WA Nationals are not part of the coalition. We have one more independent and one less member of the coalition. ;)
Cheers


You seem to forget that he has got in on the basis of the WA Nationals platform of ensuring mining royalties are returned to regional Western Australia. So whilst the ALP has any remenants of the Mining tax he will not be supporting them.

He will fall into line to support the Coalition if they win the most seats which whilst not certain is looking most likely.
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby bulldogproud2 » Thu Aug 26, 2010 3:59 pm

We also seem to forget that he has stated he will sit on the crossbenches no matter what happens. ;)
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby Sheik Yerbouti » Thu Aug 26, 2010 4:49 pm

The Melbourne papers reported that the 3 Nats seats returned 18, 16 & 9% Labour votes. Would'nt they be banging their constituents sideways if they went that direction.
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby Squawk » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:02 am

bulldogproud2 wrote:
Squawk wrote:I just wish we could do away with party-nominated preferences and require voters to nominate their own preferences. Say, 1-6 in order of personal preference for the Senate, for example. Then there could be a clearer indication of what the majority of the people want. Lets face it, we don't have a preference system for the Brownlow or Magarey Medals ;)


Squawk, we do have a system where voters nominate their own preferences. No one has to follow a 'How-to-vote' card. You make your own preferences. This is also the case in the Senate if you vote below the line. It is foolhardy to vote above the line unless you have studied the way the party would allocate preferences. It would probably be a good idea to do away with above-the-line voting.
Cheers


Exactly what I was getting at - notably your last sentence! Get rid of party preferencing and make it the responsibility of voters.
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby Squawk » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:21 am

This Antony Green piece should be interesting reading to many readers of this forum.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/27/2995560.htm?site=thedrum

Unwritten conventions of government

Last weekend Australians thought they were voting on who would form government. If Labor or the Coalition had won a clear majority, this would have been a reasonable summary of what the election was about.

But with neither side having gained a majority in their own right, the murky world of government formation under our system of unwritten constitutional conventions has been exposed to the light.

The Australian Constitution provides a framework for government in Australia. However, that framework is bare of flesh on how to deal with the current impasse.

The Constitution was deliberately written to be vague on the process of government formation. The intent was for the written constitution to be a simple framework within which Australia could inherit the unwritten constitutional conventions that applied in the United Kingdom Parliament at Westminster.

The conventions of the 'Westminster' system evolved over several centuries. Where the French and the Americans engaged in revolutions and set down written constitutions, the United Kingdom muddled through with an unwritten constitution built on conventions as the society transformed itself from a feudal to a constitutional monarchy.

At its heart, our constitutional framework see voters elect a representative Parliament from which the 'Crown' in the form of the Governor-General appoints advisers. In the real world these advisers are the Prime Minister and Cabinet, but constitutionally these are advisers appointed by the Crown.

Whether governments are elected or appointed by the Crown hardly matters when either side of politics has a majority. But these conventions pre-date party politics, and in situations such as the current election result, these conventions matter.

So let me run through a few questions about what will happen in coming weeks and how the constitutional conventions apply.

Q: Can we go straight to another election
No. The parliament must meet. The only way we can go straight to another election would be for the parliament to meet and be so deadlocked that no full-time government could be formed.

For instance, an election in Newfoundland in 1908 produced a dead heat. No party could form government without appointing one of their own as Speaker, which would have caused the government to lose its majority in Parliament. It seems extremely unlikely this election will produce such confusion.

The convention that the Parliament must meet was confirmed by the 1989 Tasmanian election.

The Gray Liberal government lost its majority, and in the days that followed, the opposition Labor Party signed a political accord with the cross bench Greens that delivered a majority to Labor.

Gray refused to resign from office and campaigned for an early election, engaging high-priced QCs to produce advice suggesting the Parliament did not have to meet and the state should go straight back to the polls. In the end Gray did not offer this advice to the Governor, the new Parliament met and Gray's government fell on the vote to elect the Speaker.

Q: If the Opposition can produce an agreement with the Independents, does the Gillard government have to resign?

No. The convention that a government resigns before the Parliament sits is a modern convention that came about after the development of political parties. In the nineteenth century, changes of government usually took place when the government was defeated on the floor at the first sitting of the new Parliament.

As of now, Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister and therefore chief adviser to the crown. If the Opposition signed an agreement, it is within the power of Ms Gillard to advise that Tony Abbot be called by the Governor-General to form a government. But in the current circumstances, Ms Gillard is within her rights to advise the Governor General that any agreement by the Opposition be tested on the floor of the House of Representatives to determine who should form government.

There have been recent instances of this in Australia.

After the 1968 South Australian election, the Dunstan Labor government finished with 19 seats, the same as the Liberal Country League opposition, the balance of power held by a conservative independent who backed the Opposition in return for being appointed Speaker. Labor had a clear majority of the vote and refused to resign as premier, forcing the vote to the floor of Parliament where his government was defeated.

As mentioned above, the 1989 Tasmanian election saw Robin Gray's Liberal government lose its majority. Gray stayed on as premier, only resigning after forcing Labor and the Greens to back their accord on the floor of the House of Assembly.

At the 2002 South Australia election, the Labor opposition led by Mike Rann fell one seat short of a majority. In the end Rann coaxed conservative independent Peter Lewis to back his government in return for the Speakership. Liberal premier Rob Kerin declined to resign his commission as premier and forced the agreement between Lewis and Labor to be tested on the floor of the House of Assembly before resigning.

Q: What happens if neither side make an agreement with the cross benches?
In these circumstances, Ms Gillard can continue on as Prime Minister. It would be up to the Opposition to defeat the government in Parliament if it wanted a change of government or to force an early election.

If the Gillard government was constantly defeated on the floor of parliament but the Opposition was not in a position to form government, then the House could be viewed as unworkable. Independent Tony Windsor has talked of needing a new election if no agreement for government can be reached. However, to get an early election, Mr Windsor and his cross bench colleagues would have to engage in deliberate tactics to make the House unworkable.

Q: Would we have an early election if the government fell after a few months?

Not necessarily. If the Gillard government continued on for a few months and lost the support of the cross-benchers, or lost a seat at a by-election, the Prime Minister could request an early election. However, if an alternative government could be formed in the existing House of Representatives, the Governor-General may decline a request for an early election and appoint a new prime minister.

This happened in 1941. The Menzies Coalition government was re-elected in September 1940. It lost its majority but continued in government with the support of cross bench independents. Menzies was replaced as prime minister by Country Party leader Artie Fadden in August 1941. In October 1941 Fadden's government was defeated by the classic no-confidence motion of varying the appropriation bill by one pound. The independents backed Labor's motion and John Curtin became the new prime minister.

The most recent example of a mid-term change of government took place in Queensland in 1996 when the Goss Labor government lost its majority at a by-election in the Townsville seat of Mundingburra. Goss resigned and the Coalition was sworn into office under new premier Rob Borbidge.

Q: Would there be another Senate election?

No. The Constitution does not explicitly state that another half-Senate election cannot be held, but it is implicit in the fixed term of the Senate that the Senators elected last weekend must take their seats in July next year. There cannot be another half-Senate election until after July 2013.

I would also think it is implicit in the Constitution that a double dissolution could not be engineered before July next year. Any deadlock between a government and the Senate should be with the new Senate after July next year, not before.

Anyway, the deadlocked chamber is the House, not the Senate. Any early election will be a House only election, with all the normal election procedures including 33 minimum campaign period.

The last separate House election was in December 1972 when the Whitlam government was elected. Senate and House election had been out of step through the 1960s and a Senate election was not due at the end of 1972.

Q: Could any agreement with the independents fix the term of Parliament.

Yes. The current term could be fixed simply by passing legislation fixing the date of the next House election. The dates of future elections could also be fixed. However, none of these dates could be constitutionally entrenched without a referendum. Legislation fixing an election date could be passed, but it could equally be removed by the passage of repealing legislation.
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby dedja » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:07 pm

All good Squawk.

I continually find it amazing that some of the major factors in the election of a government are not prescribed by the Constitution, and are handled by convention of some sort.

Imagine if we behaved like the Yanks and had a High Court challenge like the 'hanging chad' fiasco between Bush and Gore.
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby mick » Sun Aug 29, 2010 10:44 am

On another forum a bloke from Zimbabwe commented on our election saying that their system was superior to ours because they know who's won even before the votes are counted :lol:
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby Squawk » Sun Aug 29, 2010 10:06 pm

mick wrote:On another forum a bloke from Zimbabwe commented on our election saying that their system was superior to ours because they know who's won even before the votes are counted :lol:


LMAO. I bet they have a better budget too because they just dont bother going through the machinations of credit ratings, deficits or super-deficits, interest rates etc. ;)
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby dedja » Sun Aug 29, 2010 10:11 pm

Squawk wrote:
mick wrote:On another forum a bloke from Zimbabwe commented on our election saying that their system was superior to ours because they know who's won even before the votes are counted :lol:


LMAO. I bet they have a better budget too because they just dont bother going through the machinations of credit ratings, deficits or super-deficits, interest rates etc. ;)


I dunno, 1 AUD = 923,512,907,224,597,213,440,532,197,110,434,621,902,222,745,012 ZWD at the moment
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby Squawk » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:41 pm

dedja wrote:
Squawk wrote:
mick wrote:On another forum a bloke from Zimbabwe commented on our election saying that their system was superior to ours because they know who's won even before the votes are counted :lol:


LMAO. I bet they have a better budget too because they just dont bother going through the machinations of credit ratings, deficits or super-deficits, interest rates etc. ;)


I dunno, 1 AUD = 923,512,907,224,597,213,440,532,197,110,434,621,902,222,745,012 ZWD at the moment


That good? ;) (And are you sure that's ZWD or ZWW - Zimb Wheelbarrows).
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby dedja » Mon Aug 30, 2010 12:41 am

mick wrote:On another forum a bloke from Zimbabwe commented on our election saying that their system was superior to ours because they know who's won even before the votes are counted :lol:


He's kind of right ... we consciously elect idiots but they have no choice.
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Re: Which party has "the right" to govern?

Postby Q. » Mon Aug 30, 2010 2:30 pm

The power of Wilkie

Whoever wins Wilkie’s support gets into the driver’s seat by moving to 74 seats, assuming you allocate WA National Tony Crook to the Coalition and Green Adam Bandt to Labor. My money is on Wilkie’s choice determining the government because the successful applicant would then only require two of the three rural independents to form a government.

Whilst Katter is a wild card, Oakeshott and Windsor will probably stick together and pursue an outcome than retains their key balance of power position. Unless all three are emphatically behind one side or the other, the only way to take Katter out of the equation is to follow Wilkie’s decision.
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