Cwlth Budget Summary

[Mythical Creature]

Found Andrew Bolt's summary in today's Tiser pretty much summed up my thoughts.

Not sure if that diminishes any credibility I may have had previously or not.

Ack.

Just read it. Agree with you OnSonga!

About the diminished credibility?

[Gozu]

"Worst budget in the history of the world balanced media discussion open thread":

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/purepoison/2 ... en-thread/

[Q.]

Once again, the economic geniuses of Abbott and Hockey have failed to cost their policies

[Sojourner]

Budget seems to be being received pretty well, - plenty of talk about that Labor have returned to acting like the traditional "Labor" party the ALP punters expect. Would it not be unreasonable to suggest that the next lot of polls should see a reasonable bounce upwards for the ALP?

[mick]

Budget seems to be being received pretty well, - plenty of talk about that Labor have returned to acting like the traditional "Labor" party the ALP punters expect. Would it not be unreasonable to suggest that the next lot of polls should see a reasonable bounce upwards for the ALP?

Galaxy poll suggests the people havn't been fooled by this confidence trick......no bounce for the liars

[southee]

Budget seems to be being received pretty well, - plenty of talk about that Labor have returned to acting like the traditional "Labor" party the ALP punters expect. Would it not be unreasonable to suggest that the next lot of polls should see a reasonable bounce upwards for the ALP?

Galaxy poll suggests the people havn't been fooled by this confidence trick......no bounce for the liars

Primary vote went down after the budget....no one believes liars anymore.

[Strawb]

Budget seems to be being received pretty well, - plenty of talk about that Labor have returned to acting like the traditional "Labor" party the ALP punters expect. Would it not be unreasonable to suggest that the next lot of polls should see a reasonable bounce upwards for the ALP?

Galaxy poll suggests the people havn't been fooled by this confidence trick......no bounce for the liars

Primary vote went down after the budget....no one believes liars anymore.

Yup Galaxy does great work 1200 people were asked and we are told how the country would vote from them. That works for me.

[mighty_tiger_79]

well as a labor voter given i am a low income worker i will not be voting labor either state or federal at the next election

SWAN did **** himself over with the budget in a number of areas, however I do believe Abbott couldve been more specific.

Swans surplus promises for the next four years are 100/1 to even work out

[Grahaml]

well as a labor voter given i am a low income worker i will not be voting labor either state or federal at the next election

SWAN did **** himself over with the budget in a number of areas, however I do believe Abbott couldve been more specific.

Swans surplus promises for the next four years are 100/1 to even work out

I think we all realise that the surplus was just a political ploy and not a real achievement. Simply shifting spending around does SFA to help us. In fact, by bringing spending forward surely we end up paying more in interest by the time we pay it off, albeit marginally. Abbott wouldn't have been able to magically change anything, most of it is determined by external factors. Whoever wins the next election will return genuine surpluses fairly soon, since that looks likely to be the Libs history will, through coincidence, make the Liberals looks like economical genuises and Labor look like dunces.

What might have changed things is had we kept John Howard in power for another term, because that was when things went pear shaped. Not that it was the fault of Rudd and Swan and there's a fair chance Howard and Costello would have implemented similar policies anyway, but does anyone remember who Costello and Howard were trying to keep the economy growing when they lost power, while the first thing Swan and Rudd did was to put on the handbrake? Remember Rudd and Swan in unison claiming in 2008 that Costello had "let the inflation genie out of the bottle"? Immediately they brought in policy to slow economic growth. A short time later the sub prime crisis hit and the advanced economies all slowed, including ours. We then went into a spending spree that some Liberals claimed was unneccesary to speed up the econmy. Had Costello been there (I dare say we'd all have liked a 10 year veteran as Treasurer at that point instead of a first year novice, whether it makes only a small difference or not) we might have hit that crisis with a slightly hotter economy and been better off. And perhaps we don't get the insulation scheme or the school halls grants scheme. That is where we MIGHT have seen a difference. We might have seen exactly the same policies too, but that was where we made bad decisions.

[Q.]

Costello would have sold our gold reserves before the price of gold skyrocketed...

...oh wait up

[Psyber]

Costello would have sold our gold reserves before the price of gold skyrocketed...

...oh wait up

I've made the odd mistake in selling something too soon or too late, too, but overall I've done well and I'm substantially NOT in debt.
I think we could be able to say the same as a nation now had Costello still been Treasurer.
One boo-boo does not counter a record of a lot of good work..

[mick]

Costello would have sold our gold reserves before the price of gold skyrocketed...

...oh wait up

I've made the odd mistake in selling something too soon or too late, too, but overall I've done well and I'm substantially NOT in debt.
I think we could be able to say the same as a nation now had Costello still been Treasurer.
One boo-boo does not counter a record of a lot of good work..

Hear Hear well said

[Gozu]

We'd still be in debt if the Libs were in due to the GFC. And chances are they would've used the GFC to ram home WorkChoices even further, we all remember Nick Minchin apologising to the HR Nicholls Society at the time for WorkChoices not having gone far enough!

[OnSong]

We'd still be in debt if the Libs were in due to the GFC. And chances are they would've used the GFC to ram home WorkChoices even further, we all remember Nick Minchin apologising to the HR Nicholls Society at the time for WorkChoices not having gone far enough!

Can't blame the Glenelg Football Club for the nation's financial woes.

[dedja]

Glenelg no, Geelong maybe ...

[Gozu]

Nah I meant Glenelg dedja.

[OnSong]

Nah I meant Glenelg dedja.

Johno can thank Geelong for his own financial woes

[FlyingHigh]

well as a labor voter given i am a low income worker i will not be voting labor either state or federal at the next election

SWAN did **** himself over with the budget in a number of areas, however I do believe Abbott couldve been more specific.

Swans surplus promises for the next four years are 100/1 to even work out

I think we all realise that the surplus was just a political ploy and not a real achievement. Simply shifting spending around does SFA to help us. In fact, by bringing spending forward surely we end up paying more in interest by the time we pay it off, albeit marginally. Abbott wouldn't have been able to magically change anything, most of it is determined by external factors. Whoever wins the next election will return genuine surpluses fairly soon, since that looks likely to be the Libs history will, through coincidence, make the Liberals looks like economical genuises and Labor look like dunces.
What might have changed things is had we kept John Howard in power for another term, because that was when things went pear shaped. Not that it was the fault of Rudd and Swan and there's a fair chance Howard and Costello would have implemented similar policies anyway, but does anyone remember who Costello and Howard were trying to keep the economy growing when they lost power, while the first thing Swan and Rudd did was to put on the handbrake? Remember Rudd and Swan in unison claiming in 2008 that Costello had "let the inflation genie out of the bottle"? Immediately they brought in policy to slow economic growth. A short time later the sub prime crisis hit and the advanced economies all slowed, including ours. We then went into a spending spree that some Liberals claimed was unneccesary to speed up the econmy. Had Costello been there (I dare say we'd all have liked a 10 year veteran as Treasurer at that point instead of a first year novice, whether it makes only a small difference or not) we might have hit that crisis with a slightly hotter economy and been better off. And perhaps we don't get the insulation scheme or the school halls grants scheme. That is where we MIGHT have seen a difference. We might have seen exactly the same policies too, but that was where we made bad decisions.

Great post Grahaml. Any differences between Labor and Liberal responses to the GFC were only tinkering around the edges given the potential effects of the GFC.

Not necessarily saying this is where you were going with your post - Regarding the part in bold, earlier in the thread I said I couldn't believe the Libs still had Abbott in charge. Further, recall Howard's obstinancy in standing in 2007 rather than giving in to Costello. Don't think it bothers the Libs too much they are in Opposition at the moment, because, as you say, they will look like geniuses if they get in when the world economy turns and combined with 1996-2007 will ensure they can dine on that reputation and be in government for many many years to come.

[Q.]

Budget seems to be being received pretty well, - plenty of talk about that Labor have returned to acting like the traditional "Labor" party the ALP punters expect. Would it not be unreasonable to suggest that the next lot of polls should see a reasonable bounce upwards for the ALP?

A slight bounce:

"GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly."

[Sojourner]

Think that once people start seeing the actual funds being deposited into their accounts and getting a real understanding of what they are getting that the ALP will continue to see an increase in voter polling. As it currently stands I suspect that many people do not know what they are entitled to and what will be happening, once it becomes clear it could be that people may not panic quite so much.

That said however, how the Craig Thomson issue is dealt with is likely the bigger issue than the budget. The revelation that his bills were being paid by the ALP does not seem to be being recieved well, what the ALP Caucus do with this issue is likely to be a lot more critical to their polling.