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Dennis Shanahan,
Political editor From: The Australian February 16, 2010 12:00AM

Kevin Rudd's personal voter appeal is at its lowest since he became Labor leader more than three years ago as support for Labor's emissions trading scheme slumps and the ALP's primary support sits at its lowest since Kim Beazley was opposition leader.

Labor's primary vote has dropped below 40 per cent for the first time since 2006 and the Coalition has managed to hold its primary vote at 40 per cent for a month for the first time since the 2007 election loss.

On the weekend after the Rudd government reintroduced its plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by putting a market price on carbon, public support for the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme dropped to a new low after the fiasco of the UN's Copenhagen climate conference in December and Coalition opposition to an ETS.

In September last year, support for the CPRS was at 67 per cent but last weekend dropped to 57 per cent and those against the CPRS rose from 22 per cent in September 2009 to 34 per cent.

According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted last weekend exclusively for The Australian, Labor's primary vote was 39 per cent -- the first time it has been below 40 per cent since Mr Rudd became ALP leader in 2006 -- and the Coalition's primary vote was 40 per cent.

Based on preference flows at the last election, Labor still holds an election-winning lead on Greens preferences of 53 per cent to the Coalition's 47 per cent -- almost exactly the position of the ALP and Coalition in November 2007 when John Howard lost the election and his seat.

While there was little real change in the relative position of the ALP and Coalition since the beginning of parliament -- with a three-point margin of error -- the breaking of new barriers of support is causing concern among some Labor MPs.

Despite a rise in dissatisfaction with Mr Rudd's performance, he is still clearly preferred as prime minister over Mr Abbott, 55 per cent to 27 per cent, and also outpolled his increasingly popular deputy, Julia Gillard.

When asked who was the better Labor leader, Mr Rudd or Ms Gillard, 57 per cent said Mr Rudd and 32 per cent said the Deputy Prime Minister.

But Ms Gillard, who appears on Friday-morning television with the Leader of the Opposition, outpolled Mr Abbott on the question of who would make the better prime minister by 49 per cent to 38 per cent.

When Mr Beazley was the Labor leader of the opposition in 2006, Mr Rudd and Ms Gillard jockeyed in the polling for top spot with Mr Beazley as the three split the public vote.

The crucial decision in mid-2006 for Mr Rudd and Ms Gillard to team up against Mr Beazley ensured their success as the Labor leadership team by Christmas that year.

In the past two weeks, the Rudd government has suffered blow after blow in parliament over mistakes in the national broadband network and the roofing insulation scheme. Dissatisfaction with Mr Rudd as Prime Minister has now risen 16 percentage points since September last year to 40 per cent and satisfaction has fallen 17 percentage points to 50 per cent.

After a sharp rise in dissatisfaction two weeks ago, Mr Abbott's personal support has improved with a rise in satisfaction from 41 per cent to 44 per cent, a new high for him as leader, and a fall in dissatisfaction from 39 per cent to 37 per cent.

Mr Abbott has been criticised for attacking Environment Minister Peter Garrett in the last week of parliament over the deaths of four workers installing roofing insulation under the Rudd government's program.

Mr Abbott told parliament a lack of regulation and safety supervision in the "rushed program" had contributed to the deaths.

Mr Rudd has continued to campaign for climate change action and accused Mr Abbott of "going too far" in his criticism of Mr Garrett, who faces opposition demands to resign.

The Prime Minister has also pushed the CPRS as central to Labor's re-election strategy and introduced the new ETS bill into parliament.

But the Newspoll survey has shown opposition is growing to the ETS, although Australians overwhelmingly want action on climate change.

The trends begin to run against Labor
Dennis Shanahan
The Australian February 16, 2010 12:00AM

THE latest Newspoll figures, so eagerly awaited around Parliament House and the Twitter world, have some interesting technical thresholds that will disturb some Labor MPs and encourage the new Abbott-led Coalition.

For instance: Labor's drop below the magic 40 per cent in primary vote and Kevin Rudd's worst personal performance since he became Labor leader.

But the real worry for the Labor Party -- remembering at all times that the ALP is hot favourite to win the next election and still in the same position on two-party preferred terms as it was at the last election -- is in the trends.

They are running against the Prime Minister, Labor and the government's emissions trading scheme. What's more, these are not just a consequence of "Abbott's honeymoon" as a new leader; they began a long time ago and were masked by Malcolm Turnbull's leadership and Coalition divisions.

Abbott has helped accelerate the problems for the government but it's not all his work.

The Prime Minister's satisfaction rating is at its lowest since he became Labor leader by a couple of points, and within the margin of error. However, the real problem is that since September his satisfaction rating has fallen from 67 per cent to 50 per cent and dissatisfaction has risen from 24 per cent to 40 per cent. They are real and dangerous trends.

They started independently of Abbott's Liberal leadership, although the small shift in Labor's primary vote is linked to Abbott's lifting of the Liberal Party's primary vote. The disenchantment with Rudd clearly began before Abbott's honeymoon, coinciding with public impatience with the ETS and the fiasco of the UN's climate change management.

Now that there is an opposition providing a contrast and a contest, the trends have set in and Labor needs to hold its nerve in the face of its first real political pressure.

redandblack wrote:Jimmy, I think you should take off the rose-coloured glasses.

Firstly, in the history of opinion polls, a lead of 53-47 is a huge win. It's extremely rare to see results of 58 -42, etc, so I'm very happy with 53-47. That would give Rudd an increased majority at an election.

Secondly, Abbott has been in for 5 minutes. Latham was doing better at the same time.

Wait and see and don't get excited about opinion polls that show you being wiped out.

Any election these days can go any way.

Cambridge Clarrie wrote:Anyone see Rudd on 7:30 Report tonight?

Kerry didn't hold back...

As usual, the robot that is our Prime Minister did his best to avoid answering the questions.

Coalition draws level with Labor: poll
11:52 AEST Sun Feb 28 2010

Kevin Rudd says Labor is taking a whacking in the polls over insulation and that they deserve it.

A new poll shows the Rudd government's bungled home insulation program is costing it crucial support among NSW voters, who are turning to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.

The Sun-Herald/Taverner poll shows Labor is now level-pegging with the Coalition.

On a two-party preferred basis, both sides have 50 per cent of the vote - a drop of almost three percentage points on Labor's election-winning 52.7 per cent in 2007.

The poll of 609 NSW voters, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday nights, shows Mr Abbott has succeeded where his predecessors failed.

Mr Abbott has shored up his own voter base while convincing swinging, and some Labor, voters to listen to his message.

But Prime Minister Kevin Rudd remains the preferred choice for prime minister - 53 per cent say he is the better man for the top job while 40 per cent favour Mr Abbott.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has welcomed the poll.

"My understanding is we've got a long way to go and I'm not making too much of this poll," Mr Abbott told Network Ten on Sunday.

"I think that what it does indicate ... is that people are starting to figure out that the prime minister is all talk and no action and I think people are very disappointed with all the broken promises."

The poll comes after a disastrous run for the government, which has been under pressure over the bungled home insulation scheme.

But the opposition leader has also been forced to defend his own record in government.

Mr Abbott was a senior member of the coalition when Work Choices was introduced and health minister before the 2004 election when voters were told the Medicare safety net would not be changed but then was.

"I was overruled by my cabinet colleagues on the Medicare safety net. Sometimes ministers are overruled and that was my fate," he said.

Mr Abbott said he believed there were occasions when it was justifiable to "adjust" policy.

"I'm not saying that you can never, if circumstances change radically, adjust your policy.

"Of course we have to be realistic about this and I think that voters are intelligent enough to work out those sorts of circumstances."

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd concedes the government needs to improve on a number of policy fronts after a poll showed the coalition making up ground on Labor.

"We are taking a whacking in the polls now," Mr Rudd told ABC Television on Sunday.

"I'm sure we'll take an even bigger whacking in the period ahead and the bottom line is, I think we deserve it, both not just in terms of recent events but more broadly."

Mr Rudd said the government must get on with delivering on critical policy fronts such as health, education and action on climate change.

"We're proud of what we've done on the economy. We've stepped up to the plate, we've kept the wheels of the economy going.

"Where we have to improve and lift our game, where I need to lift my game, is in delivering in the key outstanding areas of reform in health and hospitals, in education and in getting on with the business of action on climate change as well," Mr Rudd said.

cripple wrote:As soon as abbott says something really stupid, which he ultimately will, then watch the Coalition implode. Might not have to be Abbott making the dumb comments, sure Barnaby will feel free to join in.

redandblack wrote:The title of the thread says it all, southee.

"Rudd hits a new low"

His new low is still much higher than Abbott's new high.

Polls at this stage of the cycle mean nothing much.

redandblack wrote:Jimmy, where do I start?

A poll proves nothing, especially one showing you level in NSW only, where the State Government is hopeless and on the nose, for goodness sake.

Rudd lost you when he joined the Labor Party, not when he was with Prince William, so don't pretend otherwise.