Saturday - Who will win and by how much?

[CK]

Not a "sweep" as such, but for a bit of fun, which party will govern the Lower House at the end of the election?

I'm tipping something like ALP 24
Liberal 18
National 1
Independent 4 (assuming Mt Gambier stays Independent - Don Pegler, with Frome, Mitchell and Fisher also staying Independent. Having said that, Mitchell may sit on a knife edge for some time. Mount Gambier, though, is by no means a drawn conclusion either. Ordinarily would lean to Liberal, but Greens and ALP directing preferences to Pegler there.)

The makeup of the Legislative Council will take weeks to decide. That final seat will be very interesting, with preferences/tickets extremely important here. Quite conceivable that a party that has not previously won a seat in SA, takes that one (D4D looks the possibility)

[fish]

Nice topic CK.

Labor 25
Liberal 17
National 1
Independant 4

Greens to gain the last seat in the Legislative Council.

[Brucetiki]

Nice topic CK.

Labor 25
Liberal 17
National 1
Independant 4

Greens to gain the last seat in the Legislative Council.

That's my prediction for the LA, but swap Greens for Family First taking the last seat in the LC.

[Squawk]

Antony Green profiles selected electorates and candidates and then provides a vote calculator at the bottom of his precis .

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/

calculator
The calculator for the South Australian Legislative Council has now been published at

http://www2b.abc.net.au/elections/view/senatecalculator.aspx?e=3&ca=lc

[smac]

I came up with the same numbers as you CK, perhaps a seat or two could head to the Libs from Labor.

You would get more responses if you offered buns for the closest result though.

[Sojourner]

I think there will be a swing against Labor but not enough for them to lose Government. Liberal might be polling at slightly higher results, yet Labor tend to have more preference votes directed their way which will likely get them over the line.

That said though it will be interesting to see what difference if any the Save the RAH party make both in the lower house and in the Legaslative council. The seat of Florey where the Modbury Hospital is needs a swing of 12% to get it away from Labor, yet the Save the RAH party are campaigning heavilly in the local area to "Save the Modbury Hospital". Which is a local issue important to a number of people, assuming there was a 6% swing in general to Liberal, it would be interesting to see if Save the RAH can tap into further votes over that issue or not.

The other thing is that Save the RAH and Family First have a preference deal for the Legislative Council which suggests that its fairly likely one of them will win a seat if between them they get over 20 000 votes which could be a distinct possibility.

[Brucetiki]

I think there will be a swing against Labor but not enough for them to lose Government. Liberal might be polling at slightly higher results, yet Labor tend to have more preference votes directed their way which will likely get them over the line.

That said though it will be interesting to see what difference if any the Save the RAH party make both in the lower house and in the Legaslative council. The seat of Florey where the Modbury Hospital is needs a swing of 12% to get it away from Labor, yet the Save the RAH party are campaigning heavilly in the local area to "Save the Modbury Hospital". Which is a local issue important to a number of people, assuming there was a 6% swing in general to Liberal, it would be interesting to see if Save the RAH can tap into further votes over that issue or not.

The other thing is that Save the RAH and Family First have a preference deal for the Legislative Council which suggests that its fairly likely one of them will win a seat if between them they get over 20 000 votes which could be a distinct possibility.

Save the RAH may make a small dent in Florey but Frances Bedford is a very strong candidate (turning the seat from a marginal to safe Labor seat since she won the seat from the Libs in 1997), and I'd still expect her to be returned with a 10+% margin.

[CK]

I came up with the same numbers as you CK, perhaps a seat or two could head to the Libs from Labor.

You would get more responses if you offered buns for the closest result though.

I'll offer virtual pretzels as a healthier alternative

[dedja]

If the Libs did manage to win somehow, the thing that really troubles me is how is Izzy going to split up all the portfolios between herself and Rob Lucas?

[dedja]

The most in-depth analysis of the election campaign so far ... http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/entertain ... 5843035960

A LILAC aura shows Mike Rann is not a womaniser and a red aura tells us Isobel Redmond is a fiery woman.
Aura reader Rosemary Waller gauged the light surrounding some of South Australia's most prominent politicians for The Advertiser and these are her predictions.

"I think Mike Rann will be feeling like he's not going to win," she says.

"With Isobel Redmond I do believe she thinks she is going to win."

In fact, Ms Waller says that today the arrangement of the planets favours the Liberal Party.

"This election day is the 20th so it is ruled by judgement day and the planets on that day favours Isobel," she says.

Ms Waller describes Rann's aura as "buzzy" and says he has a very earthy soul, which means he is on the ball.

"His aura colour is a very pale lilac but what he's got is a lot of gaps in his aura, that means he's had a lot of emotional shocks in his life," she says.

"I believe this crucifixion he's gone through with all this emotional stuff, I would take that with a grain of salt because he doesn't register to me as a womaniser."

Redmond's aura reveals she is determined but has a tendency to procrastinate.

"I'd put the colour of her aura down to red, which means she's a very fiery soul," Ms Waller says.

"I feel this Isobel Redmond will let the state down because I don't like the look of her aura, it feels to me like she's not really going to severe what she's going to do.

"Look Redmond might have a great deal of intentions but I just feel she'll be doing a lot of procrastinating this year."

Ms Waller also read Kevin Foley's aura, which she says is white but had difficulty seeing Vicki Chapman's aura.

"Her aura is almost non-existent, she's weighed down in life," she says.

"When we look at Foley here he's got a very sparkling aura - he's trading on a white light energy so he's a gifted soul, a cleaver man and he will go far in life," she says.

[redandblack]

At least it's deeper than most of David Penbethy's offerings

[dedja]

Not a "sweep" as such, but for a bit of fun, which party will govern the Lower House at the end of the election?

I'm tipping something like ALP 24
Liberal 18
National 1
Independent 4 (assuming Mt Gambier stays Independent - Don Pegler, with Frome, Mitchell and Fisher also staying Independent. Having said that, Mitchell may sit on a knife edge for some time. Mount Gambier, though, is by no means a drawn conclusion either. Ordinarily would lean to Liberal, but Greens and ALP directing preferences to Pegler there.)

The makeup of the Legislative Council will take weeks to decide. That final seat will be very interesting, with preferences/tickets extremely important here. Quite conceivable that a party that has not previously won a seat in SA, takes that one (D4D looks the possibility)

OK, back on track ... what he said will be close to the mark.

[dedja]

CK's prediction looking pretty solid at this stage.

[Wedgie]

CK's prediction looking pretty solid at this stage.

He certainly is, looking like 24 possibly 25 for Labor.

[fish]

Greens to gain the last seat in the Legislative Council.

I'm prepared to declare victory on this prediction

[fish]

And this...

Labor 25

[GWW]

At least it's deeper than most of David Penbethy's offerings

No one takes any notice of Sturt supporters anyway though mate

[fish]

And this...

Independant 4

[fish]

But probably wrong about this...

Liberal 17
National 1

I should have said:
Liberal 18
National 0