Dogwatcher wrote:Yes, it's disgraceful.
But is Oakden the smoking gun everyone thinks it will be?
I think an interesting question is, do people have enough anger to vote for Marshall?
I tend to suspect rusted ons will stay to their rusted ons.
Swing voters will head towards X.
Don't underestimate how much the re-distribution will assist the Libs.
My rough guess we'll end up with:
Libs: 22
ALP: 16
X: 4
Ind: 4
In the circumstances where the ALP would need all 8 of the above Independents and X Team to form government I suspect that they will form a similar deal to the 2010 Federal Election whereby all will guarantee the Libs confidence and supply but have to negotiate on everything else.
Possibly Bedford will not guarantee confidence or supply.
Re will voters head to Marshall is a very interesting and relevant question. Hard to overlook that statewide polling has the ALP at a historically low primary vote. Could get very ugly for them in the LC.
For those who like a wager the $1.33 you can get for a hung parliament offers far better returns than the bank.
In terms of putting my money where my mouth is I've wagered:
40 u - hung parliament @ $1.33
1 u - gary johanson in Port Adelaide @ $8
2 u - Corey Wingard in Gibson @ $2
2 u - Frances Bedford in Florey @ $1.7
1 u - Vincent Tarzia in Hartley @ $8
2 u - Steven Marshall in Dunstan @ $1.6
2 u - Matt Cowdrey in Colton @ $2.20