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This is how the Coalition can win

Alexander Downer
Columnist
Apr 12, 2019 — 10.19am

All the casual observers of the election want to know is who is going to win. I get asked that question almost hourly. Well, you don’t have to wait long to find out. But there are a few things to think about based on election history and worldwide experience.
Let’s start with the obvious. As everyone knows, Labor goes into the election as hot favourites. All the polls favour Labor, they have an army of trade unionist and GetUp activists out on the streets and a solid bastion of support from within most of Australia’s cultural institutions. And they have money and plenty of it.
But let’s think about this a bit more carefully. Polls are not a prediction. They tell you what voters think at any given moment. Outside of an election campaign, polls can exaggerate the unpopularity of a government because the public direct whatever gripes they may have towards the incumbent. Maybe the local hospital is performing poorly, perhaps nothing has been done about potholes in a road or a school needs new buildings, Some minister or other is personally unpopular, more needs to be done to stop a drought, there’s too much Chinese investment ... whatever. We all have something we dislike about the way the country is going.
Once an election campaign gets under way, the public turn to a separate question: Could the Opposition do any better? After all, the incumbent government is not running against Jesus Christ and the Twelve Apostles. It’s running against an alternative bunch of politicians.
In the 1993 election campaign, no claim was too exaggerated for Labor. Great rivers of boiling lava would sweep across the country, swarms of locusts would carry off young children ...
This is what happened in 1993. Before the election campaign got under way, the public had had enough of the Keating government: they hated Keating’s Trump-like personal slagging of his opponents, unemployment was sky high, the economy had been until recently in recession and so on. What’s more, the government had been consumed with internal rivalry leading to Bob Hawke being pole-axed by Paul Keating.

But when it came to the election the public were offered a whole new proposition by the Opposition – Fightback! Paul Keating and his government attacked it from every imaginable angle. No claim was too exaggerated. Great rivers of boiling lava would sweep across the country, swarms of locusts would carry off young children, survivors would be plunged into eternal poverty. Well, that sort of thing, anyway.
It scared the public. So whatever their objections to Keating and his team, at least they were a known quantity. Who knew what the consequences would be of the Opposition policies?

Small target strategy
After the 1993 election, the advice given to the then Opposition was to pursue what was known as a small target strategy. The idea was to make sure the public only focused on the government and blamed every imaginable ill in society on them. Opposition policies should be friendly and uncontroversial insofar as the Opposition had any policies at all. It did but when the election came they were hardly an issue. The rest is history.

Sustained personal attacks on Shorten won’t win the election for the Coalition.
Kevin Rudd ran the same small target strategy in 2007. Remember all that stuff about being a fiscal conservative. He would be Howard-lite. The only changes he would make would be popular and symbolic, like the apology and the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Memories, memories!
Abbott did the same thing in 2013. He was hammered for his three-point slogans. Good ideas, perhaps but they didn’t have a lot of substance for the then government to attack. I was overseas during the last federal election so I won’t comment on that. From afar it looked, well, sui generis. The Opposition ran the usual attacks and the government just took the blows.

With that history, let’s think about election 2019. The greatest handicap for the Liberals is the legacy of the two prime ministerial changes they’ve made. Labor will exploit this for all it’s worth and the challenge will be for the dispossessed – Turnbull, Bishop, Abbott and Joyce – to hold their tongues. Every act of ill-discipline will be a vote for Labor.
The current crop of Coalition MPs just need to follow the script word for word. The media may not like it but it’s their best chance of survival. If for five solid weeks the coalition MPs, federal and state, the senior party office-holders and staff can remember to leave the talking and background briefing to the professionals, that will help. But Bill Shorten and Labor will pounce on even the slightest outbreak of Coalition ill-discipline. And why not? It’s the Coalition’s weakest card.
The Coalition is the government so they have their known budgetary, tax and boats policies that they need to defend as needed. They also have a very credible record. The economy is stronger than most, unemployment is low and people smuggling has been thwarted.

Labor weaknesses
Labor has two weaknesses. One is their leader, Bill Shorten. He’s neither trusted nor liked but frankly I don’t think that will matter much. He’s a good campaigner and can get his well polled messages out clearly and effectively. Sustained personal attacks on Shorten won’t win the election for the Coalition.
Their best chance is the Labor Party’s big target strategy. If, and it is a big if, the Coalition can concentrate on Labor’s policies, they might just do a Keating 1993. The public are already worried about the $387 billion of new taxes. Scrapping negative gearing in a falling property market, attacking retirement incomes, forcing people into expensive electric cars and pushing up energy prices is a potent message if the Coalition can stick with it.
Don’t under-estimate Josh Freydenberg. He worked for me for years. I never beat him at tennis but more to the point, I never saw the guy flag. When we were feeling down he’d rally us all, telling us to fight. No matter how dire the situation, his sunny and determined optimism, his sheer courage in the face of political adversity, led to many a victory.
So here’s my point. Labor may win on the back of Coalition disunity. But don’t take it as a given. Labor has a big target strategy and the Liberals have a savvy leader and an Abrams tank called Josh who will throw everything at Labor.

Alexander Downer was Australia's foreign minister for 11 years, and high commissioner to the UK.

Q. wrote:Yeah, Downer isn't biased at all. Still clinging to the myth of Libs being good economic managers and repeating the lie that Labor are introducing 387 bil of new taxes. Pathetic.

Jimmy_041 wrote:

Q. wrote:Yeah, Downer isn't biased at all. Still clinging to the myth of Libs being good economic managers and repeating the lie that Labor are introducing 387 bil of new taxes. Pathetic.

The base of the op ed was to review election history but thank you for proving my point anyway.
BTW, the AFR keep clinging to that “lie” as well. Probably because Bowen confirmed it in an interview with them. But, hey, the AFR and Coorey are so right wing. Maybe if you expanded your reading from The Big Issue and Labor press releases you might learn something.

Q. wrote:

Jimmy_041 wrote:

Q. wrote:Yeah, Downer isn't biased at all. Still clinging to the myth of Libs being good economic managers and repeating the lie that Labor are introducing 387 bil of new taxes. Pathetic.

The base of the op ed was to review election history but thank you for proving my point anyway.
BTW, the AFR keep clinging to that “lie” as well. Probably because Bowen confirmed it in an interview with them. But, hey, the AFR and Coorey are so right wing. Maybe if you expanded your reading from The Big Issue and Labor press releases you might learn something.

I've read Coorey's article and he backs up my point that these are not new taxes.

$150 bil is Labor scrapping tax breaks in the 24/25 budget that goes to the wealthiest 5% (ie. $11k tax relief for those earning over $250k).

It's laughable that you ask me to read alternative sources when you're a walking Coalition press release yourself.

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Both leaders had a poor day, but Bill trumped ScoMo at his press conference.

shoe boy wrote:

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Both leaders had a poor day, but Bill trumped ScoMo at his press conference.

Lets be honest it wouldn't be difficult .

Liberals give Bill Shorten worst day yet but more are needed

TROY BRAMSTON

9:59AM APRIL 17, 2019

The combination of Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg has done what Malcolm Turnbull never could: lay a glove on Bill Shorten.

The Labor leader makes no apology for taking a suite of major policy changes to the election, flagging them well in advance and hopeful that he receives mandate for change. He hopes that being bold will pay a political dividend.

But Shorten’s big-target strategy was always high risk. Until this week, he had largely got away with it. The Coalition has struggled to punch any holes in Labor’s policies. Even Morrison as Treasurer was not the campaigner he is now.

Coalition and Labor figures say privately that yesterday was the opposition’s worst day in years as the attacks on a raft of policies, aided by questioning by journalists, saw the usually confident Shorten on the back foot.

Shorten said he had “no plans to increase taxes on superannuation”, yet Labor’s changes to retirement incomes are set to raise $34 billion over the next ten years according to the Coalition.

Labor’s negative gearing and capital gains tax policy details mysteriously disappeared from its website and were replaced with just ten paragraphs. This policy, which was taken to the last election, is resonating as voters see their home values fall.

It comes after Chris Bowen came under sustained attack last week for apparently overstating the impact of the policy by as much as $8 billion.

Labor’s changes to franking credits has been branded a “retirees tax” and this too is having an impact in some seats, particularly in NSW, where there is a significant cohort of older voters in seats like Reid and Gilmore.

Labor’s climate change policies have been under sustained attack and yesterday Shorten dodged a question about the impact of his 45 per cent emissions reduction target on the economy. Labor MPs say climate and opposition spokesman Mark Butler has not done the work needed to mitigate the Coalition’s attacks.

The big question is: Are voters listening? For a government that has been behind in 50-plus Newspolls, and still trails 48-52 per cent on the two-party vote, winning one day during the election campaign is not enough. Voters will not ignore the past three years.

Strategists in the Coalition and Labor say that if an election were held today, Labor would win. But there is nervousness in Labor ranks and increasing optimism in Coalition ranks. Labor wants to get back to talking about health; the Coalition wants the campaign to focus on taxation and the economy.

The problem for the Coalition is that the campaign will hit a lull later this week with Easter and next week with Anzac Day. The Coalition needs a run of days like yesterday. Labor will be looking forward to the reprieve and the opportunity to recalibrate its campaign.

Q. wrote:The Libs love giving the wealthy a handout. 'Trickle up' policy at work:

According to Treasury documents, flattening tax brackets will result in a total tax cut of $1,205 a year for a person earning $50,000, $1,955 for someone earning $80,000, $3,040 for a person earning $100,000 increasing to $11,640 for those earning $200,000 or more.

Based on the government’s figures that the Coalition’s plan will cost $230bn more than Labor’s, the Australia Institute analysis finds those earning more than $180,000 will get at least $77bn in tax cuts over the next 10 years. Most of that benefit ($64bn) will flow to those earning more than $200,000, it says.

The majority of the income tax cuts (54%) goes to those in the top 20% of taxpayers, according to the Australia Institute.

The analysis also reveals that under the flat tax plan high-income earners – defined as the top 20%, estimated to be those earning $203,000 by 2024 – will be paying 4% less of the overall income tax take than in 2018-19.

Low-income earners, the bottom 30%, will pay 1.7% more of the overall tax take and middle-income earners, the middle 50%, will pay 2.2% more.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/18/high-income-earners-would-receive-77bn-in-tax-cuts-under-liberal-plan?CMP=soc_567&fbclid=IwAR0gV7nVoNSXbZKUqPkXCvo1KW8QLkm4i4ZReORA6fNKwbFaGW2FN9znLKs

Armchair expert wrote:

Q. wrote:The Libs love giving the wealthy a handout. 'Trickle up' policy at work:

According to Treasury documents, flattening tax brackets will result in a total tax cut of $1,205 a year for a person earning $50,000, $1,955 for someone earning $80,000, $3,040 for a person earning $100,000 increasing to $11,640 for those earning $200,000 or more.

Based on the government’s figures that the Coalition’s plan will cost $230bn more than Labor’s, the Australia Institute analysis finds those earning more than $180,000 will get at least $77bn in tax cuts over the next 10 years. Most of that benefit ($64bn) will flow to those earning more than $200,000, it says.

The majority of the income tax cuts (54%) goes to those in the top 20% of taxpayers, according to the Australia Institute.

The analysis also reveals that under the flat tax plan high-income earners – defined as the top 20%, estimated to be those earning $203,000 by 2024 – will be paying 4% less of the overall income tax take than in 2018-19.

Low-income earners, the bottom 30%, will pay 1.7% more of the overall tax take and middle-income earners, the middle 50%, will pay 2.2% more.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/18/high-income-earners-would-receive-77bn-in-tax-cuts-under-liberal-plan?CMP=soc_567&fbclid=IwAR0gV7nVoNSXbZKUqPkXCvo1KW8QLkm4i4ZReORA6fNKwbFaGW2FN9znLKs

Those that pay the most tax get the most benefit from tax cuts, what an outrage.......

Q. wrote:Not at all surprised that the Coalition cheer squad at News Corpse is quiet on the Taylor and Price corruption.