Where to from here?

[redandblack]

Interesting times ahead.

There is no doubt that until now, the Labor Government was out on its ear at the next election, with the only question being the size of the rout. The PM was (and still is) at record lows and the only glimmer of hope was that the Leader of the Opposition wasn’t much more popular.

Positive publicity for the Government was almost non-existent and the situation looked set in concrete, the only factor being to wait for the next election, whether that was two years or two months away.

If there was an election now, the result would still be clear-cut, but a neutral observer would say that some small doubts were creeping in. Laurie Oakes today has a extraordinary strong attack on Tony Abbott


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/min ... 1a3b155bae

Most of the inspection so far has been on the Government and they have struggled to pass, but will Tony Abbott do any better under close examination? This week’s statements attacking IMF contributions seemed to indicate a worrying approach to international finance and Mr Abbott seems to have backed himself into a tight corner with his promises to repeal various items of legislation and promising another election if and when he wins.

So the endless possibilities are there: Will the PM survive, will Mr Abbott survive? Who would take over if they don’t? For Labor, the only realistic candidates ATM are Stephen Smith, Kevin Rudd and Greg Combet. IMO, Kevin Rudd isn’t a chance unless the polls are dire in another year.

For the Opposition, the obvious candidate is Malcolm Turnbull, who would attract the middle ground, but doesn’t fit the prevailing ideology of the Liberal Party. Joe Hockey? Scott Morrison?

Newspoll was 59/41, it’s now 54/46, so there’s been a major narrowing, especially with perhaps two years to an election.

How about we take off our partisan hats and make some predictions about who the leaders will be at the next election and who will win and by how far?

[dedja]

The coalition will win in a landslide and Tony Abbott will be one of the worst PMs ever.

[cripple]

The coalition will win in a landslide and Tony Abbott will be one of the worst PMs ever.

Not sure about landside becuase i think (maybe hope) Abbott will do something monumentally stupid in the next year but Tony Abbott will definitely by the worst PM ever. Just saying no all the time doesn't work in government.

[Q.]

I'm looking forward to seeing some actual policy ideas from Abbott as we lead up to the election, because so far, it's been as barren as Julia's fruit bowl.

[Gozu]

Rudd vs Turnbull.

Labor will get nervous about six months out from the next election and put Rudd back in to try and save the furniture, Labor's polls will almost immediately turn around and the Libs will realise they can't go to another election with Abbott so in turn will slot Turnbull in and the Libs will win it.

Given how crap PM Gillard has been I'd be surprised if PM Turnbull wasn't some sort of improvement.

[dedja]

There is absolutely no chance of both sides changing leaders before the election ... that just doesn't make any sense.

[Gozu]

There is absolutely no chance of both sides changing leaders before the election ... that just doesn't make any sense.

In your opinion. The public don't rate either Gillard or Abbott. If one goes I think both will.

[overloaded]

Oppositions done win elections, governments lose them. Pauline Hanson could be the leader of the opposition at the moment and Labor would still lose.

[Sky Pilot]

I believe if Labor installed Stephen Smith into the job he would resurrect its fortunes by a fair margin and make the election a cliff-hanger rather than a crash and burn. The Liberal's are also facing a dilemma with public disapproval of Abbott causing the policy advisors considerable angst. Labor also has a problem with its image over all its failures since seizing power and going troppo on a power trip that has cost us billions.

[Sojourner]

Not sure how much I would take out of NewsPoll, it serves a purpose to create headlines just like this one - yet the Gambling Polls on elections are usually smack on the button - predictions there is a sledging for the ALP.

One issue that isn't spoken a great deal about Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey is that both of them are Republicans, I cant see the leadership of the Liberal Party going to anyone other than someone in favour of the Monarchy.

If Labor go to the election with GIllard, all the Libs will do is replay her promising there would not be a Carbon Tax under any government she leads with the caption - what else are they lying about, its a gift for the Lib/Nats.

What i think is more likely is Crean or a similar candidate going for a leadership challenge and getting a boost in the ratings and going for a snap election, I don't think they will win but they wont lose the number of seats that they will lose if GIllard is still in the chair. Its about what is the best thing for the Party in the long term and losing but staying within striking distance for the next election is a far better outcome than being cleaned out as they were in NSW and needing to go through potentially three election cycles to get within striking distance. Hard to pin stuff on Abbott when his new mantra will be "The Previous Government did x and x hence we cant" and so on.

The other issue for the ALP may be where the Liberals direct their preferences and who gets them first, the Greens or the ALP. If the Libs select the Greens and there is a landslide against the ALP its feasible that a seat or seats could go to the Greens and be stripped away from the ALP. Think the full measure of that problem is yet to be seen!

Still on the other hand Tony Abbott will need to put plenty of runs on the board very quickly if he does happen to win or he may well be a one termer like I suspect Obama is going to be!

[Gozu]

The Libs hate the Greens even more than they do Labor.

[DOC]

I believe if Labor installed Stephen Smith into the job he would resurrect its fortunes by a fair margin and make the election a cliff-hanger rather than a crash and burn. The Liberal's are also facing a dilemma with public disapproval of Abbott causing the policy advisors considerable angst. Labor also has a problem with its image over all its failures since seizing power and going troppo on a power trip that has cost us billions.

Pretty sure we voted.

[The Sleeping Giant]

Such a sad state of affairs when supporters of political parties take heart that the opposition may be worse, instead of demanding their supported party improve.

[CK]

Such a sad state of affairs when supporters of political parties take heart that the opposition may be worse, instead of demanding their supported party improve.

One of the most astute and correct things said in this forum for some time.

[Gozu]

Such a sad state of affairs when supporters of political parties take heart that the opposition may be worse, instead of demanding their supported party improve.

Labor ain't going to get better anytime soon with their right-ward shift into oblivion hence the record high Greens vote.

[dedja]

Such a sad state of affairs when supporters of political parties take heart that the opposition may be worse, instead of demanding their supported party improve.

One of the most astute and correct things said in this forum for some time.

might be true but don't encourage him ...

[Sky Pilot]

I think it is awesome that no one here rates Gillard a chance of either staying in power or leading the Labor party into the next election. I believe the union power-brokers will shaft her before Christmas and go to an election in the first half of next year.

[redandblack]

Mr Abbott's comments on the IMF contribution have been slammed by even The Australian.

I think he's in a bit of trouble if the polls continue to narrow.

On the Labor side, I don't think Mr Crean is a likely candidate.

[Sky Pilot]

Mr Abbott's comments on the IMF contribution have been slammed by even The Australian.

I think he's in a bit of trouble if the polls continue to narrow.

On the Labor side, I don't think Mr Crean is a likely candidate.

Stephen Smith and Bill Shorten would be in the gf of credible leaders for your party - ahead of Crean surely?

[redandblack]

Yes, I agree with that, SP.