The Voice Referendum - Oct 2023

[Jimmy_041]

I've voted 15 times already, how about you guys?

Really quite concerning that the AEC have come out today and published what their measures are to stop multiple votes and the penalties.

I have also read how you can vote multiple times.............

[Jimmy_041]

Tracking the Voice decline starts with Albanese

Having made a hot mess of the referendum, the Prime Minister is now offering to work with the Opposition in the unlikely event the Yes case wins. It’s all a year too late.

John Black
Election analyst
Oct 5, 2023 – 1.01pm

As referendum day approaches, the only nice thing the polls reveal about the chance of success for the Voice is that its rate of decline is no longer accelerating.

We’re still looking at a national Yes vote in about the low-40s, and Yes losing every mainland state. Victoria is the closest to call and the Tasmanian sample is too small to use, but showing some signs of being the only state which could vote Yes.

As former Wallaby five-eighth Bernard Foley remarked on coach Eddie Jones’ disastrous performance at the World Cup: it didn’t have to be like this.

Since the Uluru Statement from the Heart on May 26, 2017, a wide range of legal and political experts have argued in favour of a legislated Voice for Indigenous Australians to advise the parliament, followed by a people’s convention and broad community consultation to establish a consensus of words for a referendum including recognition of First Nation people in the Constitution.

The list of experts includes Father Frank Brennan, a former member of the senior advisory group; Murray Gleeson, a former High Court chief justice; Bill Shorten, a former ALP opposition leader; and Noel Pearson as recently as March 17, 2021,

This legislative and consultative process could have proceeded with varying levels of active support from Labor, the Liberals, the teals and Greens. If there was support for a more minimalist approach promised repeatedly by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, then opposition from the Queensland Nationals would have been marginalised.

A closer examination of the timeline from the Guardian poll tracker confirms this view and shows 65 per cent in favour of Yes in late October last year.

Concerned at the drift away from an inclusive approach, on November 9 last year, Father Brennan wrote to Albanese and Dutton pleading for the prime minister and the opposition leader to return to formal bipartisan co-operation, to maximise the prospect of Coalition support for the referendum.

Albanese, however, had selfies to collect and heights to scale. On November 11, he attended the East Asian Summit, the ASEAN Summit and the second Annual ASEAN-Australia Summit, followed by the G20 Summit and the 29th APEC Summit, ending on November 19.

Singularly unimpressed, on November 28, the National Party lined up for the No case and unleashed National Party senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. She has since proved to be a devastatingly effective campaigner for the No case, prosecuting arguments similar to those now being used against New Zealand Labour in the October 14 election across the Tasman – an election Labour is tipped to lose.

By late December, the Resolve and Essential polls had both picked up the first signs of a small decline in the Yes case which began to accelerate in the new year, as the prime minister dug in behind a small group of advisers wanting an all-or-nothing approach and minimal consultation.

On March 5, Brennan again wrote to Albanese and Dutton urging more time for consultation and support for a referendum recognising Indigenous people in the Constitution. But this time he was against the proposed Voice’s access to the executive government and the public service, limiting it instead to consultation regarding special laws impacting Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

Brennan wrote: “The tragedy I am wanting to avoid is a No vote carried because of flaws in the process resulting in a lack of time for real community engagement and for proper legal analysis.”

No impact there. Instead, Albanese dug in, criticising Dutton for not engaging, as if it was somehow down to Dutton to help Albanese get out of the hole he was digging for himself.

On April Fools’ Day, the Aston byelection recorded an historic 6.4 per cent swing towards the successful ALP candidate Mary Doyle, against a professional female Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell. Albanese was triumphant and again lashed out at Dutton for “failing to be part of the solution”.

Then the gloves came off.

Three days later, on April 4, Dutton committed the parliamentary Liberal Party to the No vote and at this point, the support for the Yes vote began falling at a faster rate, and it began to rub off on Labor.

By the Fadden b-election on July 15, the 6.4 per cent swing to Labor in Aston had become a 2.5 per cent swing to the Coalition. The biggest swings against Labor were recorded in booths dominated by the big outer suburban demographics who won the 2022 election for Labor – aspirational left Asian voters and classic Australian swinging voters, along with younger, idealistic Green voters.

By the end of July, the Yes vote in the Guardian poll tracker had dropped below 50 per cent it was all over for Albanese’s referendum campaign, before it had really even started.

Support for Yes has fallen steadily ever since, nudging 40 per cent in the latest polls. If you put down a dollar to back the No case, you could win just 16 cents. The same dollar put down for New Zealand Labour could win you 15 cents. October 14 is not looking good on either side of the Tasman.

Labor candidates have begun to pay the price for the prime minister’s hubris. Since May, net satisfaction scores for Albanese have been steadily dropping, from plus 20 points to minus 3 points, pulling back Labor’s primary and two-party preferred vote close to its 2022 levels and threatening Labor’s narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

And While Peter Dutton’s net satisfaction scores are still flat-lining at about minus 10 points on Poll Bludger, the Greens are making no headway, meaning some 2022 Labor voters in recent months have been moving directly from Labor to Liberal.

Having made what he would call a hot mess of his own referendum campaign, the prime minister this week publicly suggested that, in the unlikely event the Yes case succeeds, he would like to work with the opposition to oversee the development of the Voice legislation.

Without a hint of irony, Albanese suggested he wanted to “move forward together to put in place the legislation with as broad support as possible …”

Admirable sentiment perhaps, albeit a year too late.

[am Bays]

The line share of the blame w for why the no vote is going to win sits with Albo

Tanya, Bill and Jim are conspicuous in their absence on this

Numbers are being counted.

[Jimmy_041]

The line share of the blame w for why the no vote is going to win sits with Albo

Tanya, Bill and Jim are conspicuous in their absence on this

Numbers are being counted.

Tanya is fairly active. Bill doesn't know what Albo is saying but he backs it 100%

The perception is they have gone in, balls and all, on it to the detriment of all of the other emerging problems faced by the populace.

I dont see Albo being challenged.
History shows its a slippery slope
That would be dumb but no-one said politicians are smart

If the No gets up, its what they do next will determine what happens
But I cant see the Coalition getting back in with their people so they are going to have to **** up big time (including changing leaders)

[am Bays]

The line share of the blame w for why the no vote is going to win sits with Albo

Tanya, Bill and Jim are conspicuous in their absence on this

Numbers are being counted.

Tanya is fairly active. Bill doesn't know what Albo is saying but he backs it 100%

The perception is they have gone in, balls and all, on it to the detriment of all of the other emerging problems faced by the populace.

I dont see Albo being challenged.
History shows its a slippery slope
That would be dumb but no-one said politicians are smart

If the No gets up, its what they do next will determine what happens
But I cant see the Coalition getting back in with their people so they are going to have to **** up big time (including changing leaders)

Not saying he is going to be challenged as the counting of numbers will be demonstrate that that will be futile

But there will be nervous backbenchers and yes Albo greatest strength is who sits opposite him at the dispatch box...

[Pseudo]

The most important question regarding this referendum has yet to be posed:

Why do so few of the polling places have democracy sausages available?

https://democracysausage.org/

[Armchair expert]

The most important question regarding this referendum has yet to be posed:

Why do so few of the polling places have democracy sausages available?

https://democracysausage.org/

Lines shouldn't be too long only have to write 2 or 3 letters unlike ticking 100 boxes if you vote below the line

should be an in and out job

[jackpot jim]

Just 1 more day before this waste of time, waste of space, waste of money referendum will be done with


Be interesting then to see what Albo next comes up with to deflect attention away from his complete inability to run a country

[Armchair expert]

When are we going to grow up and have electronic voting or at the least an electronic register that is faster than the dinosaur paper pen ruler we are currently using????????????

Me avoiding the people handing pamphlets out

[The Dark Knight]

When are we going to grow up and have electronic voting or at the least an electronic register that is faster than the dinosaur paper pen ruler we are currently using????????????

Me avoiding the people handing pamphlets out

Very happy I did a postal vote!

[amber_fluid]

When are we going to grow up and have electronic voting or at the least an electronic register that is faster than the dinosaur paper pen ruler we are currently using????????????

Me avoiding the people handing pamphlets out

How you gonna get a snag x 2 if we do electronic voting?

[gadj1976]

When are we going to grow up and have electronic voting or at the least an electronic register that is faster than the dinosaur paper pen ruler we are currently using????????????

I don't think it will happen in our lifetimes. There are too many security issues with it.

[Vamos]

The most important question regarding this referendum has yet to be posed:

Why do so few of the polling places have democracy sausages available?

https://democracysausage.org/

Lines shouldn't be too long only have to write 2 or 3 letters unlike ticking 100 boxes if you vote below the line

should be an in and out job

Correct, get in tick your name off, get out, start the weber with the ballot paper provided.

[amber_fluid]

The most important question regarding this referendum has yet to be posed:

Why do so few of the polling places have democracy sausages available?

https://democracysausage.org/

Lines shouldn't be too long only have to write 2 or 3 letters unlike ticking 100 boxes if you vote below the line

should be an in and out job

Correct, get in tick your name off, get out, start the weber with the ballot paper provided.

Yeah I was in and out in 2 minutes.
That included a snag for me and the lad as well.

[RB]

5 minutes for me. I went at lunchtime when it's busy and for the last couple of elections it's probably taken me half an hour. So pretty quick.

When I was giving my name, an elderly lady at one of the adjacent desks told the official that she wasn't sure if she'd voted in this referendum. The poor thing did look quite puzzled. I'm not sure how that one ended.

[Jim05]

Did mine the first day the pre polls opened. Was done in about 2 minutes. No way was I lining up today.
I always vote early

[Vamos]

My point being, if I don’t feel the need to vote I simply get in, tick my name off, turnaround and walk out.

[locky801]

How much did they spend on the pencils

[mighty_tiger_79]

Been reported that NO has been successful across NSW, Tasmania and SA

[Wedgie]

Been reported that NO has been successful across NSW, Tasmania and SA

Big time, thank christ for Queensland so SA is only the 2nd most redeneck state. Embarassing.