Biggest Finals Upsets

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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby morell » Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:21 pm

Now kiss!

All good, I originally just poked a bit of a fun but I can see I have offended some sensibilities.

My overall point has always been that CLG have an oddly poor finals record considering the home and away successes. I dont know why, I have put up some possibilities - differences in motivation between OS clubs, game day tactics, player management, coaching issues et al and been howled down.

Those that know me well enough understand I like looking at patterns, data and statistics, if that constitutes "obsession" then so be it. Seemingly CLG's involvement in some of the "Biggest Finals Upsets" is just a coincidence and an anomaly explained best by Simpson's paradox perhaps.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby WOS Dragons » Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:29 pm

morell wrote:Oh they were deserving premiers, no doubt. Very good side.

IMO CLG were a 10 goal better side and really should've won, but GF's are strange beasts.


I think that just shows how worthwhile your opinions are. CLG were nowhere near a 10 goal better side than us or Rosewater.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby morell » Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:49 pm

Gee, thanks WOS Dragons. Good to know you hold me in high esteem.

CLG finished on top with 4% more percentage. Significant when you consider they were on 62% and the next best was 58%, followed by WOS on 53% - thats 10% between the two sides. They also beat you by 6 goals in the second semi - kicking inaccurately 26 scoring shots to 14. They beat Rosewater 30 goals to 7 in the final round!!!

Anecdotally, MP beat WOS at home in the leadup to the finals, we got pummeled by CLG both times.

They were a significantly better side throughout the year - looking at form and data. But as we know, the best sides dont always win GF's.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby Lance's brother » Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:57 pm

morell wrote:Gee, thanks WOS Dragons. Good to know you hold me high esteem.

CLG finished on top with 4% more percentage. Significant when you consider they were on 62% and the next best was 58%, followed by WOS on 53% - thats 10% between the two sides. They also beat you by 6 goals in the second semi. They beat Rosewater 30 goals to 7 in the final round!!!

Anecdotally, MP beat WOS at home in the leadup to the finals, we got pummeled by CLG both times.

They were significantly a better side - looking at form and data. But as we know, the best sides dont always win GF's.



The thing about stats is that without context they are just data, not information.

Your logic above doesn't at all acknowledge when we had our best team on the park or how missing players contribute in specific games or the course of a season.

And if you just wanted to quote those stats, I'm not sure why you believe CLG are at least 10 goals better and not just the 6 goals better that they beat us by in the second semi.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby morell » Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:01 pm

Absolutely agree. Stats are an indicator and tell half the story, they show patterns and trends. What applies to the group does not apply to the individual. All that jazz.

Hence why I included the anecdotal stuff...

We can talk pleasantries all we like, we can blow smoke up each other, we can say how good we all are how wonderful everything is. Facts are, CLG were raging red hot favourites and rightly so ... but they didn't win.

This has occurred not infrequently with CLG over the years.

anddddddddddd...

We're back to square one.

They kicked inaccurately, on a normal day those 6 goals should've been 10. :D
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby Dogwatcher » Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:37 pm

If nothing else, Morell has bumped up his CLG-related posts percentage.
A milestone.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby morell » Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:38 pm

Hahahaha.

Hurray! A poster with a sense of humour.

EDIT:

and you're right, I had better shut up, they've gone from 5th to 2nd!

TTG - 130
CLG - 109
Angle Vale - 109
Henley - 96
SHOC - 90

#obsession #iloveclg #fauxlions

From here on in I will refer to them as the faux-lions.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby Footy Chick » Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:02 pm

*sigh*
Don't play games with a girl who can play 'em better...

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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby morell » Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:04 pm

Oh I'm joking FC cmon! Trying to lighten the mood a bit.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby HH3 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:07 pm

morell wrote:Absolutely agree. Stats are an indicator and tell half the story, they show patterns and trends. What applies to the group does not apply to the individual. All that jazz.

Hence why I included the anecdotal stuff...

We can talk pleasantries all we like, we can blow smoke up each other, we can say how good we all are how wonderful everything is. Facts are, CLG were raging red hot favourites and rightly so ... but they didn't win.

This has occurred not infrequently with CLG over the years.

anddddddddddd...

We're back to square one.

They kicked inaccurately, on a normal day those 6 goals should've been 10. :D


Who had CLG as hot favourites?

Everybody knew WOS were gonna be hard to beat. If you go back into the Div 5 forum this season, you'll see people saying they're the most likely to rain on CLG and North Havens parade.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby morell » Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:15 pm

Sorry, HH, that was more in reference to 2013.

Wasnt really sure how the faux-lions went this year tbh other than they looked the goods again during the year.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby Yank Man » Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:05 am

As much as I love you morell enough is enough. I have many friends at CLG and zed is one of them. If we could boast half of his success in recent years we would be knocking on the door of Div 4. Now shut the f...k up and get back on topic.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby morell » Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:31 am

:roll: :roll: :roll:

For **** sake Wayne pull your head in. I really couldn't care less who you are friends with nor do I appreciate being spoken to like that. You severely overestimate yourself and the influence you think you have on me.

The thread is about "Biggest Finals Upsets". I have discussed some of the biggest finals upsets I am aware of, the reasons for them, and about specifics related to them. I have replied to posters looking to engage and generally, despite many personal attacks, responded with candour and politeness. That is being on topic.

Sure, a lot of my posts happen to be about one club, but I've also raised ourselves and others. I can't help that CLG have been involved in a lot of finals upsets. It's history and football fact. I really haven't said anything untoward that others haven't said, or worse. It's ok to label Harvey a sooky-la-la, an underminer, a primdaonna, but I cant say I think a coach has underachieved or has the perception of being over controlling? Because he happens to have a gaggle of friends on sa footy? Puuhleaasee!

The fact that one individual who happens to be involved and is also prominent on sa footy doesn't and shouldn't change how one posts about it. You can all circle jerk eachother as much as you like, doesn't mean I have to eat the biscuit.

The truth hurts, perhaps. ;)

But I give up. Clearly this forum is more interested in waxing lyrical about how good everyone is rather than actually analysing the game of football.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby Q. » Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:19 am

I don't think anyone has labelled Harvey any of those things.

And most of us just disagree with your assessment of CLG under achieving.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby scottroo » Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:40 am

More to do with your obsession with colonel light, why not have a crack at north haven? Who have a pretty bad finals record too!
In the div 6 thread you have congratulated ingle farm for coming up a division and finishing third...Clg do the same and we are chokers?
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby woodublieve12 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:00 am

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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby Yank Man » Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:07 am

morell wrote::roll: :roll: :roll:

For **** sake Wayne pull your head in. I really couldn't care less who you are friends with nor do I appreciate being spoken to like that. You severely overestimate yourself and the influence you think you have on me.

The thread is about "Biggest Finals Upsets". I have discussed some of the biggest finals upsets I am aware of, the reasons for them, and about specifics related to them. I have replied to posters looking to engage and generally, despite many personal attacks, responded with candour and politeness. That is being on topic.

Sure, a lot of my posts happen to be about one club, but I've also raised ourselves and others. I can't help that CLG have been involved in a lot of finals upsets. It's history and football fact. I really haven't said anything untoward that others haven't said, or worse. It's ok to label Harvey a sooky-la-la, an underminer, a primdaonna, but I cant say I think a coach has underachieved or has the perception of being over controlling? Because he happens to have a gaggle of friends on sa footy? Puuhleaasee!

The fact that one individual who happens to be involved and is also prominent on sa footy doesn't and shouldn't change how one posts about it. You can all circle jerk eachother as much as you like, doesn't mean I have to eat the biscuit.

The truth hurts, perhaps. ;)

But I give up. Clearly this forum is more interested in waxing lyrical about how good everyone is rather than actually analysing the game of football.


I have no influence over you at all and my comments were tongue in cheek, so you can understand how things read can be taken out of context. I love reading your stuff but in this instance you just appear to have been going a bit hard at one particular club. Sorry if I offended. :)
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby Dogwatcher » Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:08 am

Morell just dispelled a myth - that Yankman has influence over him.
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby morell » Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:16 am

Q. wrote:I don't think anyone has labelled Harvey any of those things.
They've been mysteriously deleted and or edited. But the evidence is still there. ;)

Q. wrote:And most of us just disagree with your assessment of CLG under achieving.
Yeah no dramas at all, or at least there shouldn't be. For the most part it was a really good footy chat. Until a certain section of people got all butt hurt. I am fascinated with their pattern of results - people confused that with obsession.

I love amateur footy and the characters and stories therein. This could have been a great thread about some of the ins and outs of finals gone by, we could have heard inside stories and reasons why certain things happened, we could have discussed in depth football theory. All with a bit of banter. Which I tried to do.

scottroo wrote:More to do with your obsession with colonel light, why not have a crack at north haven? Who have a pretty bad finals record too!
I was once fascinated with Central United discipline record - people confused that with obsession. I was once fascinated with Angle Vale and their operations - people confused that with obsession. I am fascinated with Ingle Farm and Mitchell Parks history - people confused that with obsession. I was once fascinated with Smithfield and their discipline - people confused that with obsession. I was once fascinated with Henley and their ideas - people confused that with obsession.

Get. Over. Yourselves. I like talking about football. CLG are a football club. This is a thread about finals. CLG have played lots of finals. I play for a club around the corner and know a few funny stories.

All of that doesn’t equate to obsession. Other than maybe being obsessed about local footy - then guilty as charged!

Happy to discuss North Haven! Lets do it! Go for it! Unfortunately I know nothing about them as I think Mitchell Park has played them only once (stand to be corrected). But honestly, it would be great to hear about some of those upsets…

Lets talk about 2011 and Mitchell Park if you like?

scottroo wrote:In the div 6 thread you have congratulated ingle farm for coming up a division and finishing third...Clg do the same and we are chokers?
No, as I said to HH3 and Q above, I don’t know enough about 2014 CLG in D5, I apologise if I have inferred that you choked this year, I don’t know if that’s reality. I would say WOS beating you was an upset though?
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Re: Biggest Finals Upsets

Postby morell » Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:20 am

Dogwatcher wrote:Morell just dispelled a myth - that Yankman has influence over him.
hahahaha. This was never a myth.

But you're a very funny man.
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