by Grahaml » Fri Jul 22, 2011 3:04 am
Brialliantly fun stage. Cadel looks to me the strongest man in the tour now.
Andy was brilliant over the long break, but what his team gives him is incredible. Monfort was out on the break, driving it away (clearly to contact with Andy at the summit of the second climb and not earlier) then nearly singlehandedly beat 5 helpers from Euskatel, Saxo and BMC along that false flat and valley road. Andy put in some turns, but what amaxed me was the Quick Step rider helping. WTF? He's not a teammate, he's not a countryman, you're only hope of beating a climber on a big HC mountaintop is to sit back and let them weaken by doing all the work. Bizzarre decision that I can't explain. But Monfort's presence is the only thing that made that move work and his brialliant judgement of how far up the road he needed to be. If Andy comes to him on the upward slope he'll not be able to wait for Monfort and might have blown up 5km earlier on the stage and ended up losing time.
Interesting that on that final climb, Cadel beat Andy by 2 minutes in more or less a straight fight. No doubt Cadel has some serious strength which bodes well for him in the next 2 days.
Overall, a mixed day for Cadel. Not great having Andy climb back into contention and getting a decent break, but he showed that he was the only one in the field capable (apart from Frank of course) of producing a strong tempo. Cadel on the front solo was going faster than what others could do swapping turns. But riding Sanchez, Contador, Basso, Cunego all off his wheel up that last climb was stunning. He now only needs to worry about the Schlecks. Voeckler is clinging on, but losing ground and will lose too much time in the ITT now, I've no doubt. The Schlecks will want 2 minutes minimum on Cadel in the ITT. Andy is half a sniff with a minute, but Frank is no chance with only a few seconds. But not needing to worry about Contador or Sanchez (in particular those acting in tandem) too much helps. Voeckler won't attack either, so it's a double team effort from the Schlecks to watch for (almost) exlusively. Cadel might not be able to follow both, but he might get some help from Voeckler, Rolland, Basso, Cunego, Contador and Sanchez keen to move up the order or keep their spots in the top 10. He might get into a position where he's expected to contain Andy, while others might mark Frank. If he can't mark both, he might ride hard tempo again to limit losses and keep them in striking distance.
My gut tells me that Cadel is still the effective leader if they hit that ITT with these time gaps. He has more in the tank than Andy and Voeckler at the moment, I'm sure. While he didn't come 5th in the olympic time trial with a bad knee for nothing. But I worry about Andy jumping away again (but how much did today hurt him?) and also Frank looks mightily fresh. But I don't think he's the class of the others and doesn't have that kick Andy has to get separation. He'll more or less have to ride Cadel off his wheel, something I don't see happening.
Insane effort!
