Arctic Cap Gone within 15 years?

[therisingblues]

Anyone who says GW isn't happening is kidding themselves,whether it is caused by human activity or a natural cycle is the question? In anycase anyone who is under 30 now, may have an unpleasant future for themselves and their children. I have an 18 year old daughter, this issue worries me a lot, beacause if human activity caused GW, it's probably too late. If we had zero emmissions now, it would probably take centuries to reverse the effect

Well said Mick. I agree with everything except maybe the question about if this is a natural cycle or not. I think it has been very well established what has been causing GW. But the idea of what will happen to the younger generation and the generations to follow worries me a lot also.

[Punk Rooster]

Anyone who says GW isn't happening is kidding themselves,whether it is caused by human activity or a natural cycle is the question? In anycase anyone who is under 30 now, may have an unpleasant future for themselves and their children. I have an 18 year old daughter, this issue worries me a lot, beacause if human activity caused GW, it's probably too late. If we had zero emmissions now, it would probably take centuries to reverse the effect

now we are getting somewhere...

I have always seen it as arrogance/ego, that man thinks that the actions of man can change the weather patterns- some things are just out of our control, & we need to adapt (ie become smarter)

Arrogance/ego?
Many years ago scientists said this was going to happen. They built models, performed simulations, tried to explain things as simply as they could/ or as detailed as was required.
They warned that human activity will cause this.
All along there have been the "naysayers". For every freak weather occurrence or irregular hot summer somebody has put up some model to show how unalarmed we should all be. All along I have listened to everybody's theories, and it was always more comforting to listen to the "naysayers", but the evidence is now too large to ignore.
Now it is happening.
This is not arrogance, this is something that was predicted by scientists decades ago.
Very little of what I am writing is my opinion, most of it is fact uncovered by some of the greatest minds on the planet.
We can launch an unmanned space shuttle from Earth, to enter the gravity of Mars at exactly the right angle, at a point in space where Mars hasn't even reached yet. The finite calculations to perform this are astronomical, the people putting this information together have considered every possible influence or factor that could possibly change their calculations even a centimeter. These same people are informing us of GW, along with others who are just as capable, and believe me they would be getting paid a hell of a lot more to be saying that anything but fossil fuels are causing this because the pay roll for fossil fuels is enormous. The reason that all these incredibly clever people are saying the same thing is because even the most radical/greedy scientist on Earth cannot deny the results we are seeing and what the causes are.
They have spelt it out for us. If we are too stupid to listen then our children will be the ones that will suffer.

this is the arrogance I'm referring to theri. Yes, the phenomenon may be real, but it's the cause of this that I'm sceptical of.
Please understand the difference.

[therisingblues]

I understand what you are saying Punky. But why is it that you take the climatologists at their word when they say there's a phenomena but you are sceptical when they tell you the cause? I want you to understand that these people know their shit, and there are thousands of reasons ($$$$$) for them to say otherwise, but they almost unanimously agree that the cause is human activity.
The big difference is we have the power to prevent a global catastrophe, but everyone needs to understand the cause. If we choose to say that it is out of our hands then we are not doomed, I believe you are over thirty same as me, but our children will pay the price, a very slow, miserable price.
Please believe these people when they tell you we are to blame, it isn't arrogance if it is fact. As I said scientists called this shot a long time ago, how can you not trust them when everything they said is coming true?

[Squawk]

The disappearance of the Arctic Cap will not affect sea levels because the frozen ice is already displacing the sea by the equal of its volume.

The real concern is with land based ice melting - eg glaciers. It is projected that if Greenland Glaciers were to melt completely (and they have already retreated significantly) then sea levels globally will rise 7 metres.

Changes in our climate will most likely be noticed from generation to generation - ie you are not likely to see significant impacts in the your own lifetime. However, this is not to suggest that the issue should be ignored. Regreattably, Australia's contribution to global warming is so small that even if we were nil contributors, we would still reap the consequences of others who are great contributors - the USA, Europe and the new entrant to the industrial world - China.

We are not a signatory to the Kyoto protocol on the grounds that the economy would be too greatly affected by the changes we would need to make. Yet, Kyoto's protocol is recognised as not requiring any near enough from its signatories to make the difference that needs to be made to address the issue.

The current catchphrase relates to adaptation. This is because our effects as a race on the climate of the world up to today as so great that even drastic overnight change will not achieve benefits for decades to come. Therefore, we need to adapt now but at the same time, address the contributing factors and do so at a global level.

devil's advocate - I appreciate your angle about scientists producing reports that are favourable to those who pay for them. However, you may be interested to read further information produced by the Bureau of Meteorolgy and the CSIRO - and even their material is not enough to sway their own political masters. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/ . http://www.dar.csiro.au/information/climatechange.html .With religion, you are either a believer or not and debate rages about the 'second coming'. With climate change, the best evidence is recorded in retreating ice flows and packs, rising average temperatures and more extreme weather events. Hence, climate change is not coming in the future, it's here now.


Other info which may interest readers here:

http://www.marine.csiro.au/LeafletsFold ... el/45.html
http://www.dar.csiro.au/impacts/docs/SA_CMARreport2006.pdf (South Australian Report of 2006)

[therisingblues]

Some great (or should I say depressing) information there Squawk. I 've been away a couple of days but had a read through some of the CSIRO stuff just now. Just about everything there agrees with what I have read elsewhere. I think one of the big challenges at the moment is how to make this information accessible to the regular public. The info' is there, but I don't think enough people can be bothered flipping through those massive reports to find the information that is relevant to what they want to know. Especially if those people have already made up their minds that the human race isn't causing any of this.
I think the simplest way to put it is like this:

GW is caused by nature and nature alone.........we do nothing= we are screwed.
GW is caused by human activity.......................we do nothing=we are screwed.
GW is caused by nature and nature alone.........we do all we can to counter it= we have a chance.
GW is caused by human activity.......................we do all we can to counter it=we shall succeed.

[Snaggletooth Tiger]

Has anyone seen that Al Gore documentary 'An Inconvenient Truth'?

[Squawk]

Yes, I have and it was very impressive. The movie is essentially a filmed lecture but Gore is compelling and his presentation is extraordinary. I would highly recommend seeing it even if you are a 'non-believer' so to speak, just to hear and consider the debate that is going on at the moment.