Coronavirus (Covid19)

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Lightning McQueen » Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:44 am

Wedgie wrote:Someone being stuck because they've got no toilet paper conjures up some dreadful thoughts! :lol:

It's bad enough when you're stuck on the throne and have to do the call out of shame.

Being paid monthly I was always stocked up on staple items, the wife used to pay me out when we got together about my ways, I sat there pretty smug when she had to get her daughter to drive to the supermarket to get some dunny rolls while her son sat in there awaiting her return.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby FlyingHigh » Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:46 am

daysofourlives wrote:
Trader wrote:
Do you realise that with a failing economy you get more deaths right?
To say you're putting people first is false. You're voting to prevent covid deaths in the hope that we don't get unemployment deaths later on.

Not sure if you saw 60 minutes last night but they had a guy on there that explained it fairly well.

He gave the example of road deaths. You could set the death toll to zero if you changed the speed limit to 5km/hr, but we don't, we choose to allow some people to die for the benefit of reduction in transport times. The same goes for covid, we need to find an acceptable level of covid deaths and get on with it.

Some people don't like speaking about death, it's too confronting for them. Other people are able to compartmentalise it and make a rational decision.

100,000 people have died from covid world wide. In that same period, over 20million people have died.
100,000 sounds like a massive number, but in the context of 20 million, it's not that significant.

Finally someone else that gets it
And that 100,000 is very likely exaggerated and incorrect. Its a figure of people who died with Covid19 not because of covid19


Or:
It is estimated 200 people a day are dying in New York at home that haven't been included in the figures.
Similarly up to last week, England's death figures didn't include those who had been dying away from medical facilities. Not sure if that has changed now.
Indonesia only having 4500 cases and 400 deaths when 7 doctors died in their first numbers of deaths
India only having 10,000 cases and 350 deaths so far?
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:05 am

The US now has over 560,000 people confirmed with COVID-19. ( Spain 166,000, Italy 156,000 )

The US now has had 22,105 deaths. ( Spain 17,200, Italy 20,000 )

The US is predicting the peak is yet to hit and modelling predicts some 70,000 deaths before the end of June.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby woodublieve12 » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:12 am

Booney wrote:The US now has over 560,000 people confirmed with COVID-19. ( Spain 166,000, Italy 156,000 )

The US now has had 22,105 deaths. ( Spain 17,200, Italy 20,000 )

The US is predicting the peak is yet to hit and modelling predicts some 70,000 deaths before the end of June.

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby DOC » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:16 am

My brother lives in New York and to say that is a worry is an understatement.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:18 am

DOC wrote:My brother lives in New York and to say that is a worry is an understatement.


Thoughts with you and him mate.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby reppoh_eht » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:55 am

football tragic wrote:A lot of clubs will start ramping up their training during may for a June start.
there will be a 2020 season probably consisting of 12 rounds plus finals.
Economy and life will go on and yes that will mean the virus will infect more people over time.


You living under a rock mate? Until current restrictions are lifted there will be no training let alone games.

Can't see anything changing for at least another couple of months - even here in SA where we are doing quite well.

Just don't understand how people don't see the bigger picture in all of this :? :shock:
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:11 am

July 1st before we see any changes to public gathering numbers.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby tigerpie » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:26 am

reppoh_eht wrote:
football tragic wrote:A lot of clubs will start ramping up their training during may for a June start.
there will be a 2020 season probably consisting of 12 rounds plus finals.
Economy and life will go on and yes that will mean the virus will infect more people over time.


You living under a rock mate? Until current restrictions are lifted there will be no training let alone games.

Can't see anything changing for at least another couple of months - even here in SA where we are doing quite well.

Just don't understand how people don't see the bigger picture in all of this :? :shock:

Its the ##ck you jack I'm alright mentality that makes me sad and angry at the same time!
Maybe they are dyslexic and just don't get numbers?
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Trader » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:26 am

Q. wrote:
Trader wrote:Do you realise that with a failing economy you get more deaths right?


There's no evidence being presented anywhere to substantiate this claim.


To be fair I haven't been looking for evidence as it's a fairly logical conclusion to draw.

That said, here's the first article that popped up when i asked google.

https://news.yale.edu/2002/05/23/rising-unemployment-causes-higher-death-rates-new-study-yale-researcher-shows

Rising unemployment causes higher death rates, Yale researcher shows

In the largest study of its kind on mortality patterns in Europe and the United States, a Yale researcher has found a direct correlation between unemployment and mortality.

The study showed that high unemployment rates increase mortality and low unemployment decreases mortality and increases the sense of well being in a community. Findings from the three-year study, commissioned by the European Union, will be presented to select members of the European Parliament and senior officials at a European Commission press conference on May 23 in Brussels.

“Economic growth is the single most important factor relating to length of life,” said principal investigator M. Harvey Brenner, visiting professor in the Global Health Division of the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health at Yale School of Medicine. Brenner is also professor of health policy and management at Johns Hopkins University and senior professor of epidemiology at Berlin University of Technology.

“Employment is the essential element of social status and it establishes a person as a contributing member of society and also has very important implications for self-esteem,” said Brenner. “When that is taken away, people become susceptible to depression, cardiovascular disease, AIDS and many other illnesses that increase mortality.”

Prior studies on the impact of income on survival have focused on very poor countries with high poverty and infant mortality rates. This study shows that the same principles apply to highly industrialized and wealthy societies in which occupational differences based on skill level, wages and working conditions vary considerably. Brenner said this is compounded by ethnicity, and it is this distinction which still makes for the central differences in illness, mortality rates and life expectancy in industrialized countries.

“This study raises the issue to a national level-a government policy setting level,” said Brenner. “The main findings illustrate trends in mortality in Europe and North America based on economic growth and employment rates. The lower the employment rate, the more damaging, and full employment equals lower mortality rates.”

Brenner used a quantitative historical analytical method to test the theories and to study the historical processes concerning mortality and unemployment since World War II. The results of this study will be used to determine national policies relating to inflation, health services and education.

Brenner said this is the first time generalized fiscal economic policy is being made contingent upon assessment of public health implications. The European Commission funded this research with the objective of giving human meaning to unemployment rates over the last 10 to 55 years in 16 countries. The study also sheds light on and raises sensitivity to the mental and physical health implications on cardiovascular disease and suicide rates.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Brodlach » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:30 am

Would have thought they’d be smarter

“ #BREAKING: Australia's Chief Medical Officer says most of the Tasmanian health workers caught in a coronavirus cluster "went to an illegal dinner party".”
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Q. » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:31 am

Trader wrote:
Q. wrote:
Trader wrote:Do you realise that with a failing economy you get more deaths right?


There's no evidence being presented anywhere to substantiate this claim.


To be fair I haven't been looking for evidence as it's a fairly logical conclusion to draw.

That said, here's the first article that popped up when i asked google.

https://news.yale.edu/2002/05/23/rising-unemployment-causes-higher-death-rates-new-study-yale-researcher-shows

Rising unemployment causes higher death rates, Yale researcher shows

In the largest study of its kind on mortality patterns in Europe and the United States, a Yale researcher has found a direct correlation between unemployment and mortality.

The study showed that high unemployment rates increase mortality and low unemployment decreases mortality and increases the sense of well being in a community. Findings from the three-year study, commissioned by the European Union, will be presented to select members of the European Parliament and senior officials at a European Commission press conference on May 23 in Brussels.

“Economic growth is the single most important factor relating to length of life,” said principal investigator M. Harvey Brenner, visiting professor in the Global Health Division of the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health at Yale School of Medicine. Brenner is also professor of health policy and management at Johns Hopkins University and senior professor of epidemiology at Berlin University of Technology.

“Employment is the essential element of social status and it establishes a person as a contributing member of society and also has very important implications for self-esteem,” said Brenner. “When that is taken away, people become susceptible to depression, cardiovascular disease, AIDS and many other illnesses that increase mortality.”

Prior studies on the impact of income on survival have focused on very poor countries with high poverty and infant mortality rates. This study shows that the same principles apply to highly industrialized and wealthy societies in which occupational differences based on skill level, wages and working conditions vary considerably. Brenner said this is compounded by ethnicity, and it is this distinction which still makes for the central differences in illness, mortality rates and life expectancy in industrialized countries.

“This study raises the issue to a national level-a government policy setting level,” said Brenner. “The main findings illustrate trends in mortality in Europe and North America based on economic growth and employment rates. The lower the employment rate, the more damaging, and full employment equals lower mortality rates.”

Brenner used a quantitative historical analytical method to test the theories and to study the historical processes concerning mortality and unemployment since World War II. The results of this study will be used to determine national policies relating to inflation, health services and education.

Brenner said this is the first time generalized fiscal economic policy is being made contingent upon assessment of public health implications. The European Commission funded this research with the objective of giving human meaning to unemployment rates over the last 10 to 55 years in 16 countries. The study also sheds light on and raises sensitivity to the mental and physical health implications on cardiovascular disease and suicide rates.


You suggested that there would be more deaths from unemployment compared to COVID-19. This study does not show that and I have not seen any evidence anywhere to suggest that.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Trader » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:38 am

Q. wrote:You suggested that there would be more deaths from unemployment compared to COVID-19. This study does not show that and I have not seen any evidence anywhere to suggest that.


I said its a possibility yes. I've also said all along its a trade off.

IF we go too hard, the unemplyoment deaths will be higher.
IF we go too soft, the covid deaths will be higher.

No one knows where the correct position to be is, and no one will ever know, as you can't run parallel tests on this. It's all a guessing game.

Right now we are using 1.5% of our additional ICU beds. To me, that suggests we might have dialled up the restrictions a little too far.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:51 am

Trader wrote:“This study raises the issue to a national level-a government policy setting level,” said Brenner. “The main findings illustrate trends in mortality in Europe and North America based on economic growth and employment rates. The lower the employment rate, the more damaging, and full employment equals lower mortality rates.”


This then needs to have the unemployment benefits of each country demonstrated against those that were in place in Australia before the pandemic as well as the medical care offered to those who were unemployed. Let alone the increased access to financial support the stimulus packages recently released will have.

ie - Do all those countries have unemployment benefits and free medical? If not, that report tells us nothing about Australia.
Last edited by Booney on Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Dutchy » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:52 am

Brodlach wrote:Would have thought they’d be smarter

“ #BREAKING: Australia's Chief Medical Officer says most of the Tasmanian health workers caught in a coronavirus cluster "went to an illegal dinner party".”


Tassie Premier has said this is only a rumour, sounds like North West Tassie is the countries hot spot at the moment.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Brodlach » Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:56 am

Dutchy wrote:
Brodlach wrote:Would have thought they’d be smarter

“ #BREAKING: Australia's Chief Medical Officer says most of the Tasmanian health workers caught in a coronavirus cluster "went to an illegal dinner party".”


Tassie Premier has said this is only a rumour, sounds like North West Tassie is the countries hot spot at the moment.

Wouldn’t think the CMO would’ve mentioned it if it was only a rumour
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Lightning McQueen » Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:09 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Brodlach wrote:Would have thought they’d be smarter

“ #BREAKING: Australia's Chief Medical Officer says most of the Tasmanian health workers caught in a coronavirus cluster "went to an illegal dinner party".”


Tassie Premier has said this is only a rumour, sounds like North West Tassie is the countries hot spot at the moment.

Hmmmm, I thought that region was the least populated in Tasmania.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Dutchy » Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:12 pm

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby daysofourlives » Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:49 pm

football tragic wrote:A lot of clubs will start ramping up their training during may for a June start.
there will be a 2020 season probably consisting of 12 rounds plus finals.
Economy and life will go on and yes that will mean the virus will infect more people over time.


With or without crowds? And if no crowds how will country clubs pay their players? Just scrap all country footy this year
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Jim05 » Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:04 pm

Royal Adelaide show cancelled
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