SA Footy

MW wrote:how many cases and deaths if we did nothing?

The Bedge wrote:

MW wrote:how many cases and deaths if we did nothing?

I'm not a scientist, but right now I'd be more worried getting behind the wheel of a car than running into someone with COVID.

Sick of hearing that "one death is too many" - doesn't seem too many when we want to send soliders to war, or the number of deaths directly associated to smoking/drinking etc.

The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Wedgie wrote:

The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.

Wedgie wrote:

The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.

The Bedge wrote:

Wedgie wrote:

The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.

Gotcha, that makes sense then.

MW wrote:

The Bedge wrote:2021
11, 860 deaths from cancer
3, 541 deaths from dementia
3, 074 deaths from heart disease
2, 782 deaths from respiratory disease (pneumonia, influenzea) inc 1,569 Chronic lower respiratory disease (see below)
2, 072 deaths from cerebrovascular disease inc strokes.
1, 569 deaths from chronic lower respiratory disease (bronchitis, emphysema, asthma)
1, 187 deaths from road fatalities in Australia
1, 051 deaths from diabetes
60 deaths from road fatalities in South Australia

Total coronavirus cases in SA since beginning: 857
Total coronavirus deaths in SA since beginning: 4

Then for some fun (thanks google):
Texting while driving kills 6,000 Amercians annually.
Hippos kill 2,900 people annually in Africa
600 people annually die from autoerotic asphyxiation
450 people die each year from falling out of bed.
100 people in Russia are killed from icicles
Vending machines claim 13 people a year falling over.
Evil ants kill 30 people annually.
Dogs slightly more dangerous at 34 victims.

how many cases and deaths if we did nothing?

Booney wrote:NSW has around 800 ICU beds, currently 56 of them have COVID patients in them. 22 of them on respirators.

Wedgie wrote:

The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.

The Bedge wrote:

Booney wrote:NSW has around 800 ICU beds, currently 56 of them have COVID patients in them. 22 of them on respirators.

Would it not be more / equally beneficial then to announce bed utilisation % on the updates as well to put things in perspective?

"Today we have xx new cases, currently hospitals are operating at xx% capacity"

People are surely more likely to be cautious if they realise that support network is almost exhausted

Booney wrote:

Wedgie wrote:

The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.

One of the best in the world, consider yourself lucky to have access to it.

Wedgie wrote:

Booney wrote:

Wedgie wrote:

The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.

One of the best in the world, consider yourself lucky to have access to it.

Maybe I should have said hospitals and not health system.
Poor bastards getting ramped, it's poorly run.
I was in Emergency once for 8 hours. Place was overflowing with people, bloody and screaming, on floors, in hallways, etc.
Got held there so long as they said they were waiting for a bed in the heart ward to open up.
At 4am I finally get transferred to the heart ward who tell me they don't know what the hold up was as 90% of the ward was empty. Was told this is the norm.

Trader wrote:

MW wrote:

The Bedge wrote:2021
11, 860 deaths from cancer
3, 541 deaths from dementia
3, 074 deaths from heart disease
2, 782 deaths from respiratory disease (pneumonia, influenzea) inc 1,569 Chronic lower respiratory disease (see below)
2, 072 deaths from cerebrovascular disease inc strokes.
1, 569 deaths from chronic lower respiratory disease (bronchitis, emphysema, asthma)
1, 187 deaths from road fatalities in Australia
1, 051 deaths from diabetes
60 deaths from road fatalities in South Australia

Total coronavirus cases in SA since beginning: 857
Total coronavirus deaths in SA since beginning: 4

Then for some fun (thanks google):
Texting while driving kills 6,000 Amercians annually.
Hippos kill 2,900 people annually in Africa
600 people annually die from autoerotic asphyxiation
450 people die each year from falling out of bed.
100 people in Russia are killed from icicles
Vending machines claim 13 people a year falling over.
Evil ants kill 30 people annually.
Dogs slightly more dangerous at 34 victims.

how many cases and deaths if we did nothing?

An interesting debate that no one knows the answer to, not the anti-lockdown types, and neither medical experts.

However, if we wanted to estimate things, it might be reasonable to work on the following:

1,771,000 South Aussies.

Now there were 213 'really close' contacts identified between The Greek and The Winery who spent several hours in poorly ventilated rooms with highly infected individuals at the peak of their infectious period.
Of this 213, 16 caught Covid, or 7.51%.

Now, the delta death rate world wide is 0.2%

Of those who die with covid, 2.53% are dying without other comorbidity.

So, if we just let it run wild, it would not be unreasonable to suggest:

1,771,000 south aussies.
133,002 would catch Covid.
266 would die with covid.
6.73 would die from covid alone.

Is 7 people too many?
Are 7 people worth billions of dollars?

We'll never know.

What the above doesn't take into account is the other deaths that will occur as hospitals overflow, etc.

Booney wrote:As am notes, it's not perfect, but it's bloody good. You waiting just 8 hours ( in reality a mere speck in time ), you were treated, I trust you came out with a clean bill of health or a program to get you better and it cost you nothing.

Mr Beefy wrote:You haven't factored in that the transmission rate is exponential.

Mr Beefy wrote:You haven't factored in that the transmission rate is exponential.

Dutchy wrote:Australia still seems going down the elimination route, why???