Port 2014 - Pre-Season/General Discussion

[bennymacca]

also shows we have to put up with a shit load more carlton games

[bennymacca]

to get nerdy for a second, there is an inherent bias in those results though, because you cant play yourself. so Hawthorn cant play an 18 point game etc etc. So what follows is that by using that ranking system, teams that were right down the bottom will be biased towards having harder draws, and teams up the top will be biased towards easier draws slightly.

also follows that the teams at the bottom of the middle pack (crows, gold coast, north melb) will also look like they have easier draws than they actually do.

I think if you changed the ranking system so that it was something like +1 for a team in the top 6, 0 for a team in the middle 6, and -1 for a team in the bottom 6 you might get a better weighting in terms of the draw difficulty

[Booney]

to get nerdy for a second,

Port supporting beer swiller. I can't come along for that ride.

[Phantom Gossiper]

to get nerdy for a second, there is an inherent bias in those results though, because you cant play yourself. so Hawthorn cant play an 18 point game etc etc. So what follows is that by using that ranking system, teams that were right down the bottom will be biased towards having harder draws, and teams up the top will be biased towards easier draws slightly.

also follows that the teams at the bottom of the middle pack (crows, gold coast, north melb) will also look like they have easier draws than they actually do.

I think if you changed the ranking system so that it was something like +1 for a team in the top 6, 0 for a team in the middle 6, and -1 for a team in the bottom 6 you might get a better weighting in terms of the draw difficulty

Disagree, don't think it shows bias at all given every side receives a points ranking based on sides position from the season before.

Obviously someone who finished near the bottom would appear to have a tougher draw, because you wouldn't consider them to have the ability to win those games anyway.

[Phantom Gossiper]

I'll have a crack to quickly use your formula to work it out lol

[Phantom Gossiper]

Port = +1
Crows = -1

What did stand out to me using your formula, is by giving each side in the grouping the same weight, you are effectively saying playing West Coast in WA is the same (-1) as playing GWS at Adelaide Oval or playing Hawthorn is the same as playing Richmond.

Still did show again the Crows have a softer draw

[bennymacca]

to get nerdy for a second, there is an inherent bias in those results though, because you cant play yourself. so Hawthorn cant play an 18 point game etc etc. So what follows is that by using that ranking system, teams that were right down the bottom will be biased towards having harder draws, and teams up the top will be biased towards easier draws slightly.

also follows that the teams at the bottom of the middle pack (crows, gold coast, north melb) will also look like they have easier draws than they actually do.

I think if you changed the ranking system so that it was something like +1 for a team in the top 6, 0 for a team in the middle 6, and -1 for a team in the bottom 6 you might get a better weighting in terms of the draw difficulty

Disagree, don't think it shows bias at all given every side receives a points ranking based on sides position from the season before.

Obviously someone who finished near the bottom would appear to have a tougher draw, because you wouldn't consider them to have the ability to win those games anyway.

The reason you get a bias is that hawthorn gws can't play themselves so the potential for those easy or hard games can't happen

Actually a way to remove those biases is just to remove the team in question and then give rankings points from 17 down to 1. That way gws playing Melbourne would be 1 point to them instead of 2 etc.


You are also right, it's not the best measure of draw toughness because travelling to wear coast much harder than to etihad against the bulldogs etc

[Phantom Gossiper]

For the sake of one point i dont think it's neither here nor there, you still get a fairly accurate scope of their "difficulty of draw".

As for GWS not playing any easy 1pt games, well they dont deserve it, they finished bottom, therefore every side above them in theory should be a more difficult match up, just as everyone below Hawthorn should be a winable game.

[bennymacca]

i did say slightly biased. dont forget, i did preface it with saying it is nerdy

anyway, back to port adelaide.

Top of both comps!

first time that has happened before? how were the maggies doing back in the early 2000s?

[Rik E Boy]

to get nerdy for a second,

Port supporting beer swiller. I can't come along for that ride.

You don't smoke and have a job. By Port standards you ARE a nerd.

regards,

REB

[Booney]

to get nerdy for a second,

Port supporting beer swiller. I can't come along for that ride.

You don't smoke and have a job. By Port standards you ARE a nerd.

regards,

REB

[Spargo]

Should be too strong for Box Hill on Saturday night.....

[Rik E Boy]

Should be too strong for Box Hill on Saturday night.....

**** the Hawks.

regards,

REB

[Hazbeen]

Lobbe back in for Renouf

Hodge and Sewell in for hawks

Can we continue our good run against top sides at the Portress?

[Dr Phil]

prefer a full strength hawks...keen to see just how good we are. Port by 4-5 goals.

[Ruben Carter]

Port's rucking depth will be tested now with Renouf going down and now Campbell Heath out for the season.
We need Jonas back so Trengove & Westhoff can be released as a back up for Lobbe. If Lobbe gets injured, things will get tough for us.

[woodublieve12]

Serious question to port supporters

Do you think port can maintain this for the rest of the season??? I personally think they can and if they do will go very deep into september... especially if you can secure a home final.

[Booney]

Serious question to port supporters

Do you think port can maintain this for the rest of the season??? I personally think they can and if they do will go very deep into september... especially if you can secure a home final.

Obviously many factors, but a few spring to mind :

Rucks - Lobbe has played an almost lone ruck role since early 2013 and has done an amazing job. This could be problematic or it could be a plus, I think it is a plus as he is fitter than ever, match hardened and is getting good support from Trengove and Westhoff during games in the last month. With the week off and him missing the Fremantle game he's just had a nice little break before the second half kicks off.

However, if he goes down at any point we are in big strife. Butcher or Harvey would have to come in to allow Westhoff to ruck with Trengove, leaving us vulnerable at both ends. A hell of a lot rests on Lobbe's shoulders.

We play you blokes (Sydney) twice in 8 weeks ( rounds 13 and 20 we also play Melbourne twice yet too 11 and 18 ). We've got Melbourne this week in Alice Springs, St.Kilda in Adelaide then Sydney in Sydney. That will be a real test for us and we finish with 5 pretty tough weeks. Collingwood (A), Sydney (H) Gold Coast (A) Carlton (H) Fremantle (A).

I think what our biggest plus is at the moment is the spread of goal kickers. Schulz and Westhoff have had a couple of quiet weeks but Monfries, Gray and Wingard ( who can make my man parts move with some of the stuff he does ) are chipping in. Add in that Boak, White, Ebert, Wines and Hartlett have all had games this year where they've kicked 2 or more then we have, I think, just about the best balanced forward half in the competition with Sydney and Hawthorn.

Can we keep it going? Injury free, I see no reason why not. Obviously the group is fit, strong and they played out 2013 'til the very end and didn't drop off. We've had another preseason to build on that base.

Injury free is the key.

[carey]

Booney as usual a very good and accurate summary.

Couldn't agree more on Lobbe hence thinking resting him against Freo effectively giving him a 3 week rest was a fantastic idea.

Another huge plus for us as well as the even spread of goal kickers is its never them same blokes who get as across the line one week its Gray, Ebert Hartlett and Westhoff the next week its Boak, Wingard, Wines and Schultz Ok maybe not to that exact player group but my point is we are a very even side and it shows week in week out. And I haven't even mentioned Polac in the above group who has been outstanding.

The surprise packet for me has been the work of Cassisi, White and Hombsch. Cassisi I think is playing career best footy (Ok he wasn't great against the Hawks) Hombsch every game he plays I get more and more impressed and White I had worries about when we got him but he too has been fantastic.

My concerns are still Pittard when he has the ball in hand I'm nervous he just looks like he doesn't know what to do with it and his foot skills are not great either. Also Kane Cornes I like him but he must hurt the opposition more with his disposal he needs to find more targets by foot of give the ball off.

[nuggety goodness]

I really like the look of port. Just seem that little bit more polished then their opposition. If they finish top 2 then they WILL make the grand final! cannot see them beaten at home, especially in a final.

Wingard is a dead set ripper. How was the double candy he sold. Stepped Burgoyne like he was standing still. Close to, if not the most exciting player in the comp.

Port's got me almost converted... but I've got all my own teeth and dont own flannos... oh well, there's always time for that..

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