How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

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How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:35 pm

There is a perception of sorts out there that says you CANT win at Gambling
At times in my Gambling I've thought the same
Why is it that 'about' 90% of all gamblers, I know , lose heavily in the long run?

Rather than explain to the best of my ability why 'about' 90% of punters I know lose heavily , I will allow discussion on the topic

There is one basic fundamental I will bring up at a later stage
I will call it * PTP*

Anyone is welcome to post on why you CAN or CANT win at Gambling
Anyone is welcome to reply with advice
I will at times[and others] be the 3rd Umpire on any moot , good , misleading, poor posts
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby Ecky » Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:38 pm

You can't win in the long run on games where no skill is involved like pokies, lotteries, most casino games etc.
You can win in the long run on sports and horse punting:

- if your skill is superior to the bookmakers by a big enough margin to overcome the percentages they offer
- by arbing
- by taking advantage of bookmaker promotions that effectively give less than 100% markets
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:24 pm

POKIES

I am not an expert on Pokies, nor will I give a pretence that I am
I was once told Pokie Machines return back about 85% to the users [true/false ?]
Funnily enough I have NEVER EVER won playing the pokies in the dozen or so times I played
So much for an 85 % return , if correct
I guess the 85% factor applies to the occasional big payout . you know when you hear the coins jingling to the bottom tray
That being the case the minority may well win , whilst the big majority end up losers


The greatest put off for me playing Pokies are :
Boring
No skill level involved
No basic formula to outwit thems machines

I'm not a member of the Nick Xenephon mob
And my advice is
Stay away
Play for fun
Or sneak in for free coffee and biscuits
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby heater31 » Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:47 pm

mal wrote:POKIES

I am not an expert on Pokies, nor will I give a pretence that I am
I was once told Pokie Machines return back about 85% to the users [true/false ?]
Funnily enough I have NEVER EVER won playing the pokies in the dozen or so times I played
So much for an 85 % return , if correct
I guess the 85% factor applies to the occasional big payout . you know when you hear the coins jingling to the bottom tray
That being the case the minority may well win , whilst the big majority end up losers


The greatest put off for me playing Pokies are :
Boring
No skill level involved
No basic formula to outwit thems machines

I'm not a member of the Nick Xenephon mob
And my advice is
Stay away
Play for fun
Or sneak in for free coffee and biscuits



The key to winning on the pokies is to observe which machines do not have a massive payout. Which means they are due this might take all day but the legislation states they must return the a % as winnings. Venues do not allow this to happen as obviously it does not increase their revenue one bit.


I'm like you mal if I'm nearby with a couple of loose gold coins I may chuck them in. Also noticed that certain establishments will hand out $1 coins over $2 to entice you...
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:52 pm

Dear Mal (the punting doctor),

Can you please enlighten the readers about the virtues of Betfair?

Thank you

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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:09 pm

Great thread mal

I feel like i have a little bit to contribute to this thread given i have a pretty solid mathematical background, and am also a keen "gambler." Mostly poker (which is a skill game but certainly has elements of gambling), but also have played blackjack a fair bit and also dabbled in sports betting and pokies a tiny bit.


Firstly

minimum legislated return for poker machines is 87.5% in australia. That means, on average for every $1 invested the player will recieve 0.875 back.

heater31 wrote:The key to winning on the pokies is to observe which machines do not have a massive payout. Which means they are due this might take all day but the legislation states they must return the a % as winnings. Venues do not allow this to happen as obviously it does not increase their revenue one bit.


this is the first fallacy to do with poker machines, and probably the most dangerous out there.

poker machines do NOT adjust the payouts according to how much they have paid out previously. Each trial (spin) is independent of the previous ones, and any subsequent ones.

where the edge to the house comes in is the odds you are paid on each payout.

The easiest way to think about it is rolling a dice. its self evident that when you roll a single die each number comes up 1/6. In a pokie though, this might pay out only $5 for your $1 investment. hence the house keeps $1 every time this happens, so their edge is 1/6 or 16.7%.

they have absolutely no control over the result of every individual spin, which is purely random. If the jackpot pays out multiple times in a day, the pokies venue just cops it on the chin, and vice versa. But when you are talking about thousands of spins a day across multiple machines, you would get extremely close to the long term average for pokie machines.

ill start another post to comment more broadly on mal's original assertion
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:19 pm

Pokie machine are a programmed computer game
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:40 pm

Ok so more broadly mal i think there are a few different types of gambling.

(some people will know a lot of this, probably better than me, so chime in if i am wrong)

Pure Chance Games
Pokies, Roulette, Craps, etc. I dont think we really need to discuss these, as i think most people on here would realise you can never win in the long run playing these games. People like to think about systems in roulette where they try to bet on numbers that havent come up, or similarly on poker machines that havent paid out, but the fact is they are purely random and they pay back less than the odds. So in the long run there is absolutely no way you can win. (we wont talk about thinks like unbalanced roulette wheels which are just sidebars)

The key thing here is to remember that each trial (be that a spin, a roll of the dice, etc etc) is INDEPENDENT of the previous ones. This is called the gamblers fallacy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy


Sports Betting

Sports betting is interesting as it is probably the one most of us think we have a good shot at.

To keep it simple we will think of a footy game with only two results but it follows for other events with multiple outcomes. Simply, the house is trying to set the odds so that an equal amount of money is wagered on both sides, and they will set the odds slightly lower than what they believe to be the actual likelihood. this creates a house fee, juice, whatever. typically 5-10% for a head to head game.

This means that if the odds are set correctly, theoretically there should be an equal amount of money on both sides, and the house cannot lose - they take their 10% and be on their way. Of course if one side is bet more heavily than the other they stand to win or lose much more than 10%, but they will usually adjust the odds accordingly so this does not happen (think of horse racing where they do this on the fly)

So...

in a two horse race, for a punter to win they would have to be right more than 10% above average. so they would have to correctly deduce the winner more than 55% of the time to make money, if the juice is 10%.

The debate comes in as to whether any person can do this in the long term.
I think the answer, for the average punter, is highly likely to be no. The most knowledgable people who bet huge money influence the odds that much that it for the average punter betting $10 it would almost always be a in a situation where they fall into that 10% margin of error.

Even if there is an edge to the above average bloke (the best punters on here) it is likely to be fairly small, in the order of a few percent.

Betfair
Betfair operates on a similar principle as above, but where the players are on both sides of the market and the house just takes the fee. This is even better for the bookie as he has absolutely no risk whatsoever if the odds are set incorrectly, that risk is borne by the player. the downside is it there needs to be a big player pool to lay bets, which doesnt happen easily. surprised there arent more bookies out there that operate in this maner.


Poker

Poker is different to the rest (maybe it could be argued it is similar to betfair) in that you are playing against other people, and the house just takes a fee for hosting the game.

This is the area that i know the most on, but i wont bore people here unless they want to know more. But basically every hand vs any other hand has an expectation value, which for the best hand vs the worst hand is about 80%, but varies a ton obviously. This is the first form of luck.

the second form of luck comes from the fact that the game is an game of incomplete information, because the opponents cards are hidden. Each hand gets played out where players have to infer information about the other players hand. This leads a player to typically put another player on a range of cards, and how skilful a player is at this inference greatly affects the long term results.

said player has to be skilful enough to overcome the house fee (rake). Some players are good enough to do this, some arent. The rake also varies which further complicates it, as do general skill levels of opponents.

But in principle, players can win provided they can beat both the other players and the rake. this relies on the other players making enough mistakes. if everyone was of the same skill level it would be impossible to make money in a raked game.
Last edited by bennymacca on Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:44 pm

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Pokie machine are a programmed computer game


not sure what you mean by this, but in principle they are no different to a roulette wheel, which has a similar setup - there are multiple outcomes, and they pay less than the required odds.

many other factors make pokie machines particularly dangerous.

Accessibility - they are ******* everywhere
Speed - trials are repeated extremely quickly. This means that the long run is achieved quicker, and also increases the addictiveness (dopamine hits more frequently). compare with lotto or keno which have much higher house edges but because you cant repeat the trials as often they are much less addictive.
Game aspects - as you mentioned there are other game aspects designed to increase the addictiveness of pokies, but i think these are secondary to the other factors.
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:10 pm

Benny
Where do I start ?
Firstly excellent postings
I will randomly tackle 'bits and pieces' of the postings


ROULETTE
Yes is a game of chance
But
In my opinion a nicey game of chance
When betting on a number being 0-36 the casino odds return are $36
In real terms of actual probability the real odds of striking a number is $37 , which would include the ZERO number

If you back the same number 108 times and invest $108 =
The probability would be losing $3 for every 108 spins
If my maths is correct that probability equates to about a $2-70 loss per 100 spins


Betting on red or black at $2 seems OK
but the Green wipes you out
once again if my maths is correct you would lose $2-70 per 100 spins at $1 per bet

The other attraction with Roulette comes with a winning streak
This happens to increase your odds of having attracted activating attractive active women

Would I play Roulette
Yes
Randomly for a few bets, its fun, and not much damage to the pocket expenditure account
But never ever to expect a profit in a long run
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:19 pm

yep spot on mal, they pay out exact odds based on 36 numbers, but there are 37, so the house edge is 1/36, which is 2.78%. i think it is one of the lowest of all the casino games, along with baccarat.

i personally dont like roulette because i feel like i dont have control of the outcome. i like blackjack far more, which is probably around 6-10% with the current crappy low stakes rules and the basic chart type strategy that i have, but i feel it is more fun. each to their own.
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:27 pm

also if you really want to nerd out

ever wondered how much of your sports betting bankroll you should bet in any one go to minimise your risk of going broke in the long run?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby RustyCage » Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:34 pm

Something I've always been interested in but never fully gotten my head around is laying on betfair while betting on another site for that result happening. Any explanations, tips, things to avoid for that?
I'm gonna break my rusty cage and run
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:41 pm

RustyCage wrote:Something I've always been interested in but never fully gotten my head around is laying on betfair while betting on another site for that result happening. Any explanations, tips, things to avoid for that?


edit: i have described betting and laying in general, but i havent talked specifically about arbing. stupid me for not reading your post correctly. see mal's below...

i think i can explain it, but i dont actually have an account that i use on betfair so i cant give any tips.

lets take the richmond port game, where port are roughly $1.50 to win and richmond are roughly $2.50

if you are taking the win on port, you would bet $10 to win $5.

if you are laying port, i.e backing them to lose, you act as the bookie in the same scenario

in a head to head afl scenario the only difference between laying port and betting on richmond to win is what happens on a draw, as laying port gives you both the richmond win and richmond draw options.

this matters much more in soccer where a draw is a highly likely outcome but is almost ignored in footy. obviously matters more in multi option bets, like premiership, who will make the finals etc etc.

im not 100% sure i have that all right, so someone who uses betfair more often could correct me, but im pretty sure thats how it goes.
Last edited by bennymacca on Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:55 pm

RustyCage wrote:Something I've always been interested in but never fully gotten my head around is laying on betfair while betting on another site for that result happening. Any explanations, tips, things to avoid for that?



BETFAIR
This is called Betfair Arbing
The Corporate Bookmakers don't like or relish punters doing this
Quite simply its called backing and laying to secure a profit
It takes a skilled punter to execute this plan of attack

EXAMPLE
Any dog or horse race
A bookmaker might be betting $5 for a runner
There is a rally of money for the same runner on Betfair and the odds tumble into $4-50
The Bookie might still have the $5 dangling
You back the runner at $5-00
You lay the runner back at $4-50 on BF

RUNNER WINS
So you might end up with this scenario
$20 Bookie @ $5 = $100 return = $80 profit
Lay $22 Betfair @ $4-50 = payout of $99.00 = $77 loss
That would be a profit of $3

RUNNER LOSES
Lose $20 with the Bookie
Win $22 lay Betfair
That would be a profit of $2
The snag with the $2 win is you have to pay a commission [tax] of about 5.86 % to Betfair on the winnings
On $22 that =$1-28
That makes the profit $0.72

You win either way
But the skill level. anticipation, concentration , speed on the keyboard , and speculating on a tumbler is a focus
Too hard for me
I tried for a while
Not worth the effort
Some punters who expertise in this do make profits from being prophets
BUT
The Bookies will also loathe this and if you back too many winners , SOME will ban or restrict your account
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How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:02 pm

Edit: didn't read clearly the original question, edited above
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:12 pm

bennymacca wrote:also if you really want to nerd out

ever wondered how much of your sports betting bankroll you should bet in any one go to minimise your risk of going broke in the long run?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion


There was a n Australian Kelly of the 19th century
He gambled and won lots of money by robbing banks
But lost his life as a result

I've not heard of this Kelly of 1956
His theories are too complex for me to understand
I cant offer an opinion on the Kelly doctrines

Perhaps Eckystein is the poster to give an opinion on Kelly of 56
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:18 pm

PROBLEM GAMBLING
Helpline
1800-101010

oneeighthundredwonnothingwonnothingwonnothing
or
oneeighthundredIoweIoweIowe
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Wed Jul 09, 2014 7:13 pm

some examples of house edges for casino games. note that most of the blackjack style games played in australia (pontoon, sports blackjack, blackjack plus etc) are much higher than what is listed there. also that edge is for perfect "chart" strategy so it is likely much higher on average because people dont play that way

http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby Ecky » Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:57 pm

mal wrote:
bennymacca wrote:also if you really want to nerd out

ever wondered how much of your sports betting bankroll you should bet in any one go to minimise your risk of going broke in the long run?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion



Perhaps Eckystein is the poster to give an opinion on Kelly of 56


The Kelly criterion doesn't minimise your risk of going broke, to minimise this risk you should never bet!
What it does do though is maximise your profits in the long run assuming you have a good estimate of what the true odds are.

But most casual punters aren't able to accurately estimate what the true odds are. eg You might believe that Essendon +27.5 vs Port is a good bet but you have no clear idea what the true line should be.

So unless you do your own 100% markets and have strong confidence in these, or you are using some system that gives you estimated true odds for each event, the Kelly criterion isn't any use to you. It also uses the obvious criteria of only placing bets when the odds are in your favour - if you don't have the skill to identify when the odds are in your favour you obviously can't win either!

This bloke has applied the Kelly Criterion on Nate Silver's World Cup predictions and has turned a fictitious $100K into over $500K http://www.statsbomb.com/2014/07/a-villainous-ref-emerges-nate-silver-day-21/(he updates it each day)
But you don't need to use Kelly to make money from Nate's predictions, anyone betting any amount on them would be well in front.
Last edited by Ecky on Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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