Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[LPH]

Got polaxed by Moonovermanhatan, not happy

Good Oaks trial by Jameka

[mighty_tiger_79]

Catch the cat....4th

Not fcking happy

[OnSong]

So this weekend, I Love It in Race 2 is one I've been following since last spring carnival. Will be at big odds to beat Lankan Rupee but I'll have a little EW nibble.
Little Indian in race three is constantly improving but needs to travel in the pack before pouncing in the straight. Doesn't lead well but hits the line hard and having seen the last three starts, is probably suited to more distance. Still, will have another EW crack in a classier field.
Race 6 has Criterion, Happy Trails and Fawkner in the same race, along with Kermadec. Boxing em up and going Criterion FTW.

Didn't see race 2 but I Love It didn't run top 4, will still follow closely as it has plenty of ability.
Little Indian scratched. Will find out why but disappointing not to see it go around. A number of sites had it best value for the day.
Stoked with Criterion's effort, shattered neither Kermadec or Fawkner snuck in for the tri. That would have made for a decent arvo.

Loved the run of Tarzino in Race 9. I backed it and while it settled mid field, it was motoring down the straight. Extra distance maybe? Really promising.

[LPH]

Yeah, I had a Place Trixie: Happy Trials ($3.90), Jameka ($2.70), Tarzino ($4.20)
He had NO Luck whatsoever in the straight from the back of the field & still ran the fastest final 400m Sectional Time.
Top 4 in Derby IMHO but price is too short now - looking elsewhere due to the s**t price.
The Freedman Horse might be worth a punt @ $10

[LPH]

Shocking Gate for my Caulfield Cup Horse Who Shot Thebarman - 2nd from the outside.
Probably have to go back & ride for luck

[mighty_tiger_79]

Shocking Gate for my Caulfield Cup Horse Who Shot Thebarman - 2nd from the outside.
Probably have to go back & ride for luck

No no no

Push forward

Sit 3 wide.....possibly will get cover

Ride it like its the best horse and watch it win

[Spargo]

A little midweek all up for those playing at home or work.
Gold Coast R7 #5 win, into R8 #9 win. Jimmy Orman with both rides.
Currently $7 fixed price on Sportsbet.

[OnSong]

Anyone having a crack at the Caulfield quaddie this arvo?

The great D&W has Holy Cow as overs at $30 in the Vase. Showing $26 on Ubet

[LPH]

Doing Form for Caulfield Cup ... OMG, tough ask!
Reckon this is the BEST Rated Field for a long time - what do you guys reckon?
I would say best Caulfield Cup in decades - certainly since Might & Power's win.

Early Warning: The Preview will be long!

[OnSong]

Doing Form for Caulfield Cup ... OMG, tough ask!
Reckon this is the BEST Rated Field for a long time - what do you guys reckon?
I would say best Caulfield Cup in decades - certainly since Might & Power's win.

Early Warning: The Preview will be long!

Absolutely. I think the best part is there will be some value in the field with so many chances. Will be interesting to see who is following what.

[LPH]

Agree - am surprised the AJC Derby winner is so short @ $4.60 ... good run last week but that's a bit 'skinny' to my way of thinking

[Alaska]

I agree, usually there are a couple that jump out to me, but a lot more work required this year.

[OnSong]

Agree - am surprised the AJC Derby winner is so short @ $4.60 ... good run last week but that's a bit 'skinny' to my way of thinking

Are we backing off The Barman?

I've been a fan of Royal Descent as a good each way shot in these features.

I Love It in race 10 at good each way odds too. So a few of my favourite horses will get my money.

[LPH]

Short Answer: No... I can't as I've backed him consistently over the past fortnight
But the barrier is a concern - still think he can Top 4.

Wait for the preview... but I think Mongolian Khan is a 'false' favorite & the price is way too short IMHO

[JK]

Doing Form for Caulfield Cup ... OMG, tough ask!
Reckon this is the BEST Rated Field for a long time - what do you guys reckon?
I would say best Caulfield Cup in decades - certainly since Might & Power's win.

Early Warning: The Preview will be long!

Seems to be mixed opinion among the experts, with many referring to the local horses almost as the "best of a bad lot" and claiming the imports have us well and truly covered.

I had a nibble a few days ago at Snow Sky, but will be filthy if Rising Romance gets up - Was super stiff not to win it last year, and has been a great $$ spinner for moi.

Must be a fair field though, because across various forums I reckon I've seen every single runner tipped at least once.

[Booney]

I agree JK. If either Hauraki or Hokko Brave have a run they'll be hard to beat.

Any of you lads look at this site?

https://www.racenet.com.au/form/formgui ... eno=9&rn=0

I love the predictors and speed maps.

[JK]

I agree JK. If either Hauraki or Hokko Brave have a run they'll be hard to beat.

Any of you lads look at this site?

https://www.racenet.com.au/form/formgui ... eno=9&rn=0

I love the predictors and speed maps.

If one of them gets crunched late I wouldn't be surprised if it were Hokko or Fame Game.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Sportsbet do speed maps and predictors but their site is slow I never use them

[LPH]

OK, the 2015 Caulfield Cup – as most know, I’ve already backed Who Shot Thebarman.
Before the barrier draw, I liked the 4 Place Dividends & the $26 was Juicy. That said, after the Barrier Draw, I am less confident of him winning. That’s the gamble when you take the ‘early price’. This is a high rating Caulfield Cup Field – the best for a long time IMHO. A bit of rain about to take the ‘jar’ out of the track will suit most horses, one would think. I thought I would approach the Race like the Epsom, & give reasons for ‘removal’ – here goes:

(1) Protectionist – out of form badly, not target race, be surprised if he made Top 5 (REMOVE)
(2) Snow Sky – 1st run in Oz, Good Jockey, Distance Record Good, Good Gate, can run Top 5 (IN)
(3) Fame Game – 1st Run in Oz, 1st Up record poor, Target Race Melbourne Cup, Good Jockey, Difficult Gate @ Caulfield, can run Top 5 (IN)
(4) Our IvanHowe – excellent run in Bart Cummings (suited by Flemington?), Great Distance Record, Bad Gate, will enjoy the weight drop on last 2 runs, can run Top 5 (IN) Will have a Place Ticket in him.
(5) Hokko Brave – better suited by trip than Fame Game, Great Jockey, 1st Run in Oz, 1st Up record good, can run Top 5 but the 2nd stringer of the Japanese Runners so prepared to risk (REMOVE)
(6) Mongolian Khan – Great Gate, Kiwi Jockey (that’s a minus IMHO), good ‘traditional’ lead up runs (7 days since last run?), very short price, will appreciate the weight drop on last few runs, has the ideal profile for this race (winner AJC Derby), obviously Top 5 runner but I will risk due to 7 day back up, Price & Jockey (REMOVE)
(7) Trip to Paris – Not target Race, he’s a better chance in the Melbourne Cup on the bigger track but distance record is good & he’s very well weighted in this race Saturday, good Gate, good Jockey, can run in Top 5 (in fact I think he will race like a typical English Stayer from the front & happy to be 2 or 3 wide with galloping room (IN) Will have a Place Ticket on this runner.
(8) Who Shot Thebarman – I believe he’s been set for this race 4th Up, bad gate will make tactics interesting (I expect he’ll go back from the jump & Shinn to try & get mid-field with cover going out of the straight the 1st time), I’m saying ‘Yes’ but obviously I am less confident from that gate (IN – maybe the wallet talking now though)
(9) Grand Marshall – I’m saying no, despite the good Gate & good Jockey, think his target race is the Melbourne Cup (he was 5th Up into the Sydney Cup in the Autumn), that said, I don’t rate this horse as highly as the other 2 Waller runners (REMOVE)
(10) Royal Decent – the only negative I can see with this Mare is the barrier & where does she end up going out the straight the 1st time? She’s well weighted & I think they will go forward & try & lead of be in the 1/1, I think there is a risk that if that happens she might struggle to finish off the trip, but she can Top 5 & it wouldn’t surprise me if she won it with the right run, she’s very good & might be best @ the 2000m of the McKinnon @ WFA on Derby Day (IN)
(11) Volky – 4 weeks ago I thought he could win, not going well enough IMHO (REMOVE)
(12) Hauraki – Godolphin means always a chance in these races, McDonald is arguably the best (I think Bowman is but) Jockey in the land, well weighted, Gate OK, should be mid-field past the post the 1st time, distance isn’t a concern as he ran 2nd to Mongolian Khan in the AJC Derby, personally I think his price reflects that fact rather than being a genuine 2nd favourite, but McDonald & Godolphin mean (IN)
(13) Lucia Valentina – not the same Mare this season to last, badly out of form, poor Gate, does drop a lot of weight from the Epsom but I fancy she likes the ‘sting’ out of the ground & for that reason she’s out for me (REMOVE)
(14) Rising Romance – 2nd last year means she has to be a chance to win the race, gate OK to get a good spot going past the post the 1st time, Trainers are ‘braining’ them @ the moment, Jockey is a concern, as is her run in the Turnbull, concede she can finish Top 5 but 4 different riders this preparation suggests ‘unlocking’ the secret from 2014 appears elusive & her reasonably short price must be based on last year’s result more than current form (REMOVE)
(15) Magicool – not the same horse that ran so well in the Winter, concede he’s a Trifecta hope on the QLD Derby run but not for me, genuine outsider in this field (REMOVE)
(16) Gust of Wind – been some tips around for her & based on the AJC Oaks win (beating Winx) she should be right in this race, no weight is a huge plus, good Gate, Jockey is not afraid to do anything to win (he’s copped plenty of suspensions in Melbourne, probably why Hayes Camp got rid of him?) if she can reproduce the Oaks form of the Autumn, she can win the race IMHO – the weight drop to 51 kgs is significant & for that reason alone she has to be a Top 5 Prospect (IN)
(17) Set Square – VRC Oaks winner last year, good Jockey, OK Gate, no weight, good form. The run in the Turnbull was very good & the Trainer is under-rated IMHO, if I give Gust of Wing a chance, then I have to give this Mare a chance as well (IN)
(18) Magnapal – Gate is poor, Jockey OK (best provincial Jock in Oz IMHO), form is good – if The United States was in this race it would be much shorter than $41, so that alone suggests this runner is over the odds, that said I think it can’t win so prepared to risk (REMOVE)

So that leaves us with Numbers: 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10, 12, 16, 17 – too many to Box up… so we need to reduce them; Based on Jockeys: 2, 3, 8, 10, 12, 17 … Based on Barriers: 2, 3, 7, 12, 16 … Based on Distance: 2, 3, 4, 7, 16, 17
Boxing 6 runners because 8 is my runner: 2, 3, 7, 8, 12, 17 … God that was difficult!
Good Luck Lads, reckon despite above I could still miss the winner!

Other Races:

Like Ragnaar in the Caulfield Classic – David Hayes was a ‘wrap’ for this horse in light of the Derby. So if he’s to be a genuine Derby chance, you’d expect he runs well here. That said, I’m prepared to bet the Value on Etymology – forgive the run @ Flemington. If you were impressed by Tarzino last week (although he cost me a collect on my Trixie, I was) you have to take the $15 for this runner. McDonald taking the ride ahead of Shards is a lead, I reckon.

Jesse Belle in the Tristarc Stakes – she’s a good each way Bet IMHO. I will be hanging out for the best double figures I can get - reckon she’s going to be overlooked on the TOTEs somewhat. Best TOTE for the Place, might get you $4 the Place @ race time. The money will come for Catkins (as one would expect) & also Sabatini – her last run was very good & has a great 2nd Up Record … Catkins is the one to beat, clearly, at the weights she’s the one but I like Jesse Belle due to the Price but also her record @ Caulfield – from the wide barrier, I expect she’ll be near the back, hopefully not on the fence, about 4th last on the outside. If they go hard up front (& I expect they will, with Solicit, Tycoon Tara, La Passe & Catkins taking up the running), she might be the one finishing hard down the centre of the track – which has been the place to be over the Caulfield Carnival.

Miss Promiscuity might be a value runner in the last race, the Alinghe – great record Track, Distance. I’ll be using her in a Place Trixie or Yankee but happy to wait for the day for a better price – missed the $19 at the start of the week.

As I said earlier, I reckon this is one of the best Cup fields assembled in a long time.
Enjoy another great day’s racing – let’s hope we can get some in the ‘kick’ for Mooney Valley next week.
The Cox Plate next week is 'mouth watering' - What a potential Field!

[mighty_tiger_79]

I love the quick back up with the stayers

Traditionally stayers only really sprint for the last half mile so they don't need the recovery time