OAKSY Doggies Tips

[Oaksnaf]

HORSHAM 16/2 *Will amend if any late scratchings*

RACE 3

3 VELOBELL $4.05
8 ZULU AEGIS $5.00
5 AROLOK OLLIE $6.86
1 WISE ARCHER $8.47
6 RED HOT BELLA $9.42
7 ABALONEY $11.63
4 GOLD BRO $17.72
2 MAXIMUM KICK $24.31

RACE 4

8 DYNA JEEVES $3.96
2 POKER DATE $4.40
5 JOLLY BALE $6.71
4 TIGRA TRON $8.29
1 FULL BLOWN TURBO $11.37
7 LITTLE BIT MORE $14.03
3 AROLOK HOBO $17.33
6 EAGLEHAWK BEFFA $29.34

RACE 5

1 JAXON RULZ $3.40
2 HARRY AZTEC $4.67
8 LEAD INTO DEMISE $5.19
4 BRONCO DE JURER $8.79
6 GO GO SPAGHETTIO $9.77
7 PARANOIA $18.38
3 BEFORE DAWN $34.58

RACE 6

1 OVER THE RADAR $3.71
8 DYNAMIC SPIN $5.66
4 COSMIC SPUR $6.28
7 GREYSYND HAWK $7.76
2 BRAZEN BOMBER $8.62
6 GOLD CUP $9.58
3 LEMON CHICKEN $41.87
5 LEKTRA GOOSE $46.53

RACE 7

1 SILVERDUST $3.96
3 PARSNIP $4.89
7 BIGBAD FIJI $6.70
6 REBEL LADY $7.45
9 STARBRIGHT TARA $11.35
4 VELO GALORE $14.02
5 EUMERALLA DONNY $17.30
2 BLUE BOY $23.74

RACE 8

4 CRACKERJACK DAK $2.81
6 COOL BOOTS $3.12
1 ZOE $5.87
2 ORIENTAL TSUNAMI $6.52

RACE 9

1 MYSTIC MARLOW $2.77
2 MIRACLE WHIP $5.21
6 GOLDEN SWAN $6.44
8 SUNNY BREAKS $7.15
3 BROTHER MOSES $10.90
4 UNSUB ANDY $16.61

[mighty_tiger_79]

GAWLER

RACE 1

completely no idea

8 - $4.71
6 - $5.23
2 - $5.82
1 - $6.46
5 - $7.18
6 - $7.98
7 - $188.19

GAWLER RACE 2

I CAN ONLY FIND 3 genuine winning hopes here

4 - $3.12
5 - $3.47
3 - $3.85
1 - $20.80
7 - $23.11
6 - $25.68
8 - $605.75

gawler race 7

4 - $1.38
7 - $11.36
2 - $12.63
6 - $17.32
3 - $32.59
8 - $115.40
1 - $128.22
5 - $241.27

the 4 should blitz these, the 2 looks like it could be the one to rove for placings behind the 4, or even the place bet.

gawler race 8

2 - $1.29
7 - $10.64
1 - $16.21
5 - $37.66
3 - $70.86
8 - $78.73
6 - $87.48
4 - $164.60

[mighty_tiger_79]

quick glance through Horsham

race 3 - 2 I can see this running into a place at juicy odds, will begin moderately and should be able to utilise the long straights here to pick up ground. Cant win.

[Oaksnaf]

You can get $21 Fixed odds on #6 for Gawler Race 1.

In these open market races, wagering can be difficult as you believe there are many combinations to bet on. But ultimately you need to trust your handicapping. If your handicapping is in the right order of S/R etc, long term you should be able to find a success.

Hope we nab a few today !

[Oaksnaf]

Top Rating wins Gawler R1 - nicely done. And #6 comes in third. If that is your idea of 'no idea'..... then we need to hit hard the races you have a good idea on!

[mighty_tiger_79]

my markets can change too easily, from finishing order, to how I rate them as winning chances...

almost need to do 2 markets, some dogs, just cant win, but will always fill the exotics

[mighty_tiger_79]

couldn't find the red in race 2, they went awfully slow time!!!!

[Oaksnaf]

quick glance through Horsham

race 3 - 2 I can see this running into a place at juicy odds, will begin moderately and should be able to utilise the long straights here to pick up ground. Cant win.

The two winners at Gawler and then a $5.30 placegetter. Nice work !

[mighty_tiger_79]

That's where the adjustment needs to come in. That Horsham placing had no winning hope, as your market suggested but to me i thought it was a sound place bet.
Need to find that nirvana

[mal]

An example of why the win market should not relate to a place market
Horsham Race 7-5 Eumerilla Donny
Oaksy has this dog at $17-30 , and the 7th rated dog in a win 0nly assessment
Dog has not the speed to win this and would need interference to the others to win, but the dog is as strong as an ox, given some luck can run a place
It simply cant be the 7th rated place chance , but could be close to the top pick for a place

[Oaksnaf]

I've never pursued the place market and I don't keep results of tab place payouts for my win markets. I just keep track of the S/R.
In a win market, if my 1st selection has a 30% S/R of winning and if my 2nd selection finishes 2nd 30% of the time and my 3rd selection finishes 3rd 30% of the time what benefit would I get from doing a place market.
Also if you were exotic punting, would you incorporate both your WIN market and PLACE market? Or would your 1st selection only involve the WIN market and your 2nd and 3rd only involve the PLACE market?
I get confused.

[mal]

An example of why the win market should not relate to a place market
Horsham Race 7-5 Eumerilla Donny
Oaksy has this dog at $17-30 , and the 7th rated dog in a win 0nly assessment
Dog has not the speed to win this and would need interference to the others to win, but the dog is as strong as an ox, given some luck can run a place
It simply cant be the 7th rated place chance , but could be close to the top pick for a place

The Oaksy top rater won the race Silverdust [1]
Well done the top rating pick got up
My place tip Eumerilla Donny [5] ran 2nd
Lovely place div
Lovely trifecta div

[mal]

I've never pursued the place market and I don't keep results of tab place payouts for my win markets. I just keep track of the S/R.
In a win market, if my 1st selection has a 30% S/R of winning and if my 2nd selection finishes 2nd 30% of the time and my 3rd selection finishes 3rd 30% of the time what benefit would I get from doing a place market.
Also if you were exotic punting, would you incorporate both your WIN market and PLACE market? Or would your 1st selection only involve the WIN market and your 2nd and 3rd only involve the PLACE market?
I get confused.

The John Laws law of dog punting
When your onna good thing stick to it

In your post
You have answered your own question
If your ratings successfully find good strikes rates for top raters running 1st /2nd/3rd, then anything I post pales into insignificance

The only mooteristic point I make is that some dogs that are BIG odds to win , are not necessarily BIG odds to place

[Oaksnaf]

Bit of a struggle.

Horsham

R3: $25 win: unplaced
Exotics: -$10

R4: $25 win: 3rd
Exotics: -$10

R5: $29 win: 3rd
Exotics: -$10

R6: $27 win: unplaced
Exotics: -$10

R7: $25 win: 1st @ $1.90
Exotics: -$10

R8: There was an error, I misread a report thinking #8 was scratched when doing the form.

R9: $36 win: 2nd
Exotics: - $10

WARRAGUL
R2: $27 win: unplaced
Exotics: -$10

R3: $25 win: unplaced
Exotics: -$10

R7: $27 win: unplaced
Exotics: -$1

R8: $31 win: unplaced
Exotics: -$10

R9: $28 win: unplaced
Exotics: -$10

OUTLAY: $415
RETURN: $47.50
P/L: -$367.50

TOTAL
OUTLAY: $2094
P/L: -$3
POT: -0%

A horrible day for TOP RATING.

[Oaksnaf]

Bendigo Battlers 17/2

RACE 1

5 BARON CHARLIE $2.96
3 KRAKEN ZURI $6.19
4 SEABROOK OSCAR $6.88
8 WHIPSTICK FLYER $9.44
7 PANDERS BOX $11.65
6 LOTS OF TROUBLE $12.94
2 CARLANNA TEGAN $17.75
1 ITS BURGER TIME $33.41

RACE 2 **UPDATED AFTER SCRATHCHINGS**

7 RENES MEMORY $2.94
2 FANCY BOUNCE $4.03
8 ARTIC WINTER $9.35
1 CORVUS $10.39
10 KATIE ALOUETTE $12.83
6 WHIPSTICK SID $17.60
9 NORMS WISH $21.73
4 BORIS WINSLOW $36.80

RACE 3

6 LITTLE HOREYS $3.21
7 ETOILE DE MER $3.97
4 NEV TIME $6.72
1 DAINTREE TEACAKE $8.29
8 MONTERRA MISS $11.37
2 IROQUOIS SOULJAH $26.42
3 MIRACLE MAGGIE $40.27
5 JOE HANDSON $61.37

RACE 4 **updated after scratching**

1 MILITANT MAN $2.20
8 FRENCH FIZ $5.11
5 ALL INN TOGETHER $7.00
4 BENNYS PROMISE $10.68
3 TANTRUM TOMMY $24.80
2 HOTLIPS MATILDA $34.02
7 FLYN LES FERGI $42.00
10 STETSON LANE $51.85


RACE 5 **UPDATED AFTER SCRATCHING**

6 HARVEST GOLD $2.97
2 ADVICE APLENTY $4.53
5 ITS AN ILLUSION $5.59
7 BLACK VELCRO $9.47
4 ALL INN BLACK $14.44
8 SILVER ROCKSTAR $27.17
3 CHANTILLY MAGIC $30.19
9 SUBWAY $51.13


RACE 6

1 ALL INN AFRICA $3.93
6 WISE HARRY $5.40
2 ELITE SPRITE $6.00
5 ALL BOLTS $8.23
4 CULLQUIN SAM $10.16
3 DANNY BROOK $11.29
7 UNTHER BALE $21.24
8 MOVEFASE REG $26.22

[mighty_tiger_79]

Angle Park

race 1

3 - $1.54
6 - $8.33
2 - $12.69
1 - $19.34
5 - $23.88
4 - $36.39
8 - $44.93
7 - $104.38

race 5

3 - $4.16
6 - $4.62
7 - $5.14
8 - $5.71
4 - $8.70
2 - $30.81
1 - $38.04

race 6

7 - $2.24
1 - $4.22
5 - $4.68
2 - $10.88
8 - $89.51

race 7

3 - $3.31
1 - $6.24
7 - $6.93
8 - $8.55
9 - $9.50
10 - $10.56
6 - $13.04

race 8

4 - $3.11
1 - $3.84
7 - $8.92
2 - $11.01
3 - $12.23
5 - $13.59
6 - $16.78

[mighty_tiger_79]

Bendigo

race 1

5 - $3.10
8 - $3.45
2 - $8.00
4 - $9.88
7 - $18.60
3 - $22.96
6 - $28.34
1 - $34.99

race 2

7 - $2.71
2 - $6.30
9 - $7.01
10 - $8.65
8 - $9.61
6 -- $22.32
4 - $27.56
1 - $34.02

race 3

7 - $4.21
6 - $4.68
4 - $5.20
2 - $7.13
5 - $7.92
1 - $13.42
8 - $72.42
3 - $595.64

race 4

1 - $4.32
8 - $4.80
5 - $5.34
4 - $7.32
2 - $11.16
3 - $12.39
7 - $17.00
10 - $139.85

[Oaksnaf]

Looks like we are finding the same top raters at Bendigo. Hoping for a better S/R than yesterdays attempts.

[mighty_tiger_79]

there is money to be made today!

[Oaksnaf]

BENDIGO
RACE 7

5 FURIOUS JACK $3.40
7 SOUTHWOOD LLOYD $5.76
4 WILLOWVALE HAWK $6.40
3 BEN WIGAN $7.90
1 GO LAKERS GO $8.78
6 WOOMERA $13.38
9 LYNLAW DAVE $25.18
2 UNCONTROLLABLE $47.37

RACE 8

3 OSCAR DE SNOWMAN $3.60
8 UNDER TAKER $6.10
1 MY NAMES DEBBIE $6.78
2 MINT BURST $8.37
4 GIRTHY $9.30
5 FIERY FOX $12.75
6 HES NOT JET $15.74
9 ZIPPING NOEL $23.99

RACE 9

8 BIG SHOW MULLOW $3.62
3 PAPER CUTS $5.51
2 DUTCH SHCULTZ $6.81
5 LITTLE HEMI $7.56
4 KIWI INVASION $8.40
1 PRUE JAY $12.81
6 AXEL BOY $24.10
7 ATLAS TINKABELL $40.82