by Oaksnaf » Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:58 pm
We are up to 89 races.
Let's have a quick check to see where things are. I normally do this every 100 races, to make sure I am on the right path or whether I have strayed and have struck some bad habits.
We know that in order to measure our handicapping, our TOP rating must win more than our 2nd and so on.
Handicapping:
So are we?
TOP Rating 27 wins from 89 races @ 30% with level stakes WIN return of $80 and POT -10% with 54 places (inc wins)
2nd 14/89 @ 16% $80.70 POT - 10% 45/89
3rd 14/89 @ 16% $72.60 POT -18% 36/89
4th 12/89 @ 13% $107.10 POT +20% 38/89
5th 8/89 @ 9% $64.90 POT -27% 29/89
6th 8/87 @ 9.1% $69.80 POT -20% 26/87
7th 3/82 @ 3.6% $26.70 POT -64% 16/82
8th 2/75 @ 2.6% $40.20 POT -46% 9/75
75% of the time, the winner comes from our TOP 4. But we only have 64% of all placings come from our TOP 4 selection. So we are better at the finding the winners than we are the places.
So this tells us that we have our handicapping nearly in order for the WIN. Just need to work on 2nd/3rd and 5th/6th.
We are also in pretty good order for out places. Except 3/4.
What we need to look at now, is the wagering. We are not travelling that well on level stakes for the Top 2 ratings, in fact only Rating #4 is showing some profit. But we need to take into account the OVERS. Now these OVERS are the closing TAB results. So they can vary when betting live. But for this example they will do.
OVERS (when we only bet if they are over our market assessed odds) Betting $100/our odds P/L
Top Rating: 9/45 return $43.20 P/L -$75
2nd 7/50 return $62.60 P/L +$233
3rd 2/44 return $26.40 P/L -$280
4th 5/45 return $71.50 P/L +$348
5th 2/42 return $32.80 P/L -$67
6th 0/30 return $0 P/L -$201
7th 0/23 return $0 P/L -$97
8th 1/18 return $20.80 P/L +$23
TOTAL -$117 from $4320 outlay
I am rating my top 5 runners pretty close together, it seems I am more confident in finding those who will LOSE rather than win.
This is also shown that my 8th Rating has finished 8th 22/75 times @ 29.3% nearly the same S/R as TOP RATING winning......
We can look at our numbers all day and find positives in the way that we should WAGER. Hindsight Harry yes?
Well realistically how does this help you handicap? If my handicapping starts to slide, then my once wonderful set of numbers starts to fall.
It would be like changing my bets to only bet on the 4th rating for the WIN VALUE.
We can look at exotics, but the sample really is too small.
Let us just keep ticking along. And maybe I'll concentrate a bit harder on how I am finding 3/4/5/6 rated animals. I am happy with the S/R of 1 and 8.