OAKSY Doggies Tips

[Oaksnaf]

I just keep it simple for the thread.
As you know I punt on top 2 ratings, and increase wager when there are overs etc.
It is just a bit of fun for the forum. And we have a long way to go. Happy to keep as is.

[stampy]

well well well, look who the cat dragged in! oaksy maaaaaaaatttte, how long you been back?

[Oaksnaf]

Hey Stampy, yes back to it. We are up to 77 races, and you'll be happy to know. BOX TOP 3 Tri - 9 winners for a return of $914. So hopefully can nab a few more.

HEALESVILLE

RACE 1

8 JOHNNYS RETURN $3.77
7 MANX KNIGHT $4.66
2 MISS BLACK HAWKE $7.10
1 CAPTAIN FRECKLES $7.88
3 TEXAS PILEDRIVER $9.73
5 CASINO $16.49
4 PENINSULA LADY $20.35
6 CHADS BIG BOY $25.13

Gone with the local here. Always like it when a runner continues to chase after being knocked around heavily .

RACE 2

2 PRINCEMARK FLYER $3.12
1 PREMIER MACS $5.87
8 BOURBON AN KAHN $6.52
7 HOP ON BLACK $8.94
5 LUONGO $11.04
3 BELLA VITALI $12.27
6 MAX ROXY $23.09
4 FRUIT SPICE $35.19

RACE 3

2 BENSON $2.86
7 RIVER CROSSING $4.84
6 THAT’S THE PLAN $5.98
8 SHIFTY JOSHUA $7.38
1 FAST BOLONEY $15.43
5 THUNDER FLAME $32.27
3 WADELOCK JULIET $39.84
4 HELL BLAZIN $49.18

RACE 4

6 ATTRACT $3.37
4 SINDYS GIRL $5.72
1 BOOFA JACK $6.35
8 ABOUT TO CRY $7.06
7 MR COOPS $8.71
5 EL TORO LOCO $16.39
2 AVAS ANGEL $30.84
3 ELFIE $47.01

RACE 5

2 DESTROY $2.60
1 REVELLING $6.05
5 BIGSHOW JETHRO $6.72
6 LIDOS BOY $8.30
8 UNEXCUSEABLE $11.39
7 RAVEL $21.43
9 BABY BLITZEN $40.32
4 BUREKUP JACK $44.79

RACE 6

7 SOLDIER SPY $3.19
1 IM PUMPED $6.01
4 SAAHD $6.67
2 HELLO SUNSHINE $8.24
6 BLACK BEARD $9.15
8 BLACK FOO $11.30
5 DENZEL $32.41
9 PERRY WHITE $49.39

RACE 7

3 SHES FULLBOAR $3.61
5 ENCEE EYE GIBBS $4.02
1 HOGGANAUGHT $6.80
8 TZAR NORMA $7.56
6 YOU SAY SO $12.80
2 CAPE ABILITY $15.80
4 SILENT FLETCH $26.75
7 ONE FOR LIAM $62.15

RACE 8

7 MISS BELLADONNA $3.76
3 ROCKON AUDACIOUS $4.17
8 BEJAY THE DEJAY $4.64
4 CUT LOOSE MAX $6.36
2 BLACK AND PRETTY $18.24
1 RED LIGHT RUNNER $27.80
6 PAPPA GALLO $52.31
5 TONTOS MATE $88.60

This is a pretty tough race. #8 is preferred inside, #7 will shoot to the rails. #3 likes to hold middle of track, while #4 is likely to want wide. It cause a real issue here. But these 4 are legs above the rest. Trouble will see the insides find exotics.

RACE 9

6 SIR PENDLEBURY $3.74
2 LADY TRON $4.62
1 PREMIER SONG $6.33
4 VEETEE HAVOC $7.04
5 MALADY AUBREY $10.73
7 WINDSOR PRIZE $14.72
8 CLARETOWN TEX $18.17

RACE 10

8 NOISE MAN $3.79
1 SHOWGIRL MISS $5.20
10 OLIVIA SNOW $7.13
7 HOT RIGHT NOW $8.81
4 WICKED EXPLOSION $9.78
5 JUMBO JACK $10.87
3 LETS GO BLACY $16.57
2 LAUREN KASEY $28.06

If we can beat JOE in this race, the exotics should be very handy. I cannot see a particular betting pattern. So all exotics should prove an OK collect against WIN odds.

RACE 11

2 ANNUNAKI $3.55
8 STATELY KAY $4.38
1 BEGIN AGAIN $5.41
3 CONTEMPLATE $8.24
10 SELECT SANZ $13.96
6 JUKEBOX HERO $21.27
7 ARIES JEWEL $23.63
5 GLAMOUR GAS $44.47

RACE 12

1 HOT AND LONESOME $2.55
7 LUNCHLESS $4.79
4 BLACK SENOR $7.30
3 PLEA FOR BEER $8.11
5 DEADLY CLEAR $13.74
2 MINER RUSH $15.27

Happy Punting !

[Oaksnaf]

Results

R1: $27 win - 1st @ $2.50
Exotics -$10

R2: $32 win - 4th
Exotics -$10

R3: $35 win - 2nd
Exotics -$10

R4: $30 win - 2nd
Exotics: -$10

R5: $38 win - unplaced
Exotics -$10

R6: $31 win - 1st @ $2.00
Exotics: -$10

R7: $28 win - unplaced
Exotics: -$10

R8: $27 win - 1st @ $5.30
Exotics: -$10

R9: $27 win - unplaced
Exotics: -$10

R10: $26 win - 1st @ $2.10
Exotics: -$10

R11: $28 win - 3rd
Exotics: -$10

R12: $39 win - unplaced
Exotics: -$10

OUTLAY: $488
RETURN: $327.20
P/L: -$160.80

TOTAL
OUTLAY: $3320
P/L: -$555
POT: -17%

[Oaksnaf]

We are up to 89 races.
Let's have a quick check to see where things are. I normally do this every 100 races, to make sure I am on the right path or whether I have strayed and have struck some bad habits.
We know that in order to measure our handicapping, our TOP rating must win more than our 2nd and so on.
Handicapping:

So are we?

TOP Rating 27 wins from 89 races @ 30% with level stakes WIN return of $80 and POT -10% with 54 places (inc wins)
2nd 14/89 @ 16% $80.70 POT - 10% 45/89
3rd 14/89 @ 16% $72.60 POT -18% 36/89
4th 12/89 @ 13% $107.10 POT +20% 38/89
5th 8/89 @ 9% $64.90 POT -27% 29/89
6th 8/87 @ 9.1% $69.80 POT -20% 26/87
7th 3/82 @ 3.6% $26.70 POT -64% 16/82
8th 2/75 @ 2.6% $40.20 POT -46% 9/75

75% of the time, the winner comes from our TOP 4. But we only have 64% of all placings come from our TOP 4 selection. So we are better at the finding the winners than we are the places.

So this tells us that we have our handicapping nearly in order for the WIN. Just need to work on 2nd/3rd and 5th/6th.
We are also in pretty good order for out places. Except 3/4.

What we need to look at now, is the wagering. We are not travelling that well on level stakes for the Top 2 ratings, in fact only Rating #4 is showing some profit. But we need to take into account the OVERS. Now these OVERS are the closing TAB results. So they can vary when betting live. But for this example they will do.

OVERS (when we only bet if they are over our market assessed odds) Betting $100/our odds P/L
Top Rating: 9/45 return $43.20 P/L -$75
2nd 7/50 return $62.60 P/L +$233
3rd 2/44 return $26.40 P/L -$280
4th 5/45 return $71.50 P/L +$348
5th 2/42 return $32.80 P/L -$67
6th 0/30 return $0 P/L -$201
7th 0/23 return $0 P/L -$97
8th 1/18 return $20.80 P/L +$23

TOTAL -$117 from $4320 outlay

I am rating my top 5 runners pretty close together, it seems I am more confident in finding those who will LOSE rather than win.
This is also shown that my 8th Rating has finished 8th 22/75 times @ 29.3% nearly the same S/R as TOP RATING winning......

We can look at our numbers all day and find positives in the way that we should WAGER. Hindsight Harry yes?
Well realistically how does this help you handicap? If my handicapping starts to slide, then my once wonderful set of numbers starts to fall.
It would be like changing my bets to only bet on the 4th rating for the WIN VALUE.

We can look at exotics, but the sample really is too small.
Let us just keep ticking along. And maybe I'll concentrate a bit harder on how I am finding 3/4/5/6 rated animals. I am happy with the S/R of 1 and 8.

[mighty_tiger_79]

ANGLE PARK WED

R1 - 1,4

R7 - 7-4-9-2

R8 - 6-2-1-4

[mighty_tiger_79]

Angle Park

top pick is my Golden Bone selection

r1 - 8 wormburner - I am forced to pick this tonight, an easier race here tonight.

r2 - 4-8-1-7

r3 - 1-3-7-8

r4 - 6-7-1-9

r5 - 1-2-7-8

r6 - 1-5-6-7

r7 - 1-8-6-4

r8 - 5-7-8-3

r9 - 2-4-5-7

r10 - 1-2-7-3

r11 - 6-5-2-8

[Oaksnaf]

After a few hot days we are back.

WGL

RACE 1

1 MAGNIFICENT PETE $3.33
5 SCANEZ JEWEL $3.70
4 DARMODY $5.07
2 MILLY OMUFFIN $11.78
3 ADMIRE BLACK $14.54
6 MARLOW NIKITA $33.78
7 MONKEY BANANA $37.53
8 LUCKY ANDY $46.33

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 2

7 JAZZY NEW YEAR $4.00
1 EAT MY SHORTS $4.45
2 THERES STEAMY $4.94
8 SPRING VELOX $6.78
4 PARROT IS LOOSE $12.76
3 POPPY JAY $24.01
6 AMAROO MULISHA $29.65
5 FOXY FERN $45.19

RACE 3

3 REALLY MAGIC $3.65
7 MAGIC DANCE $5.01
6 IMA REALITY $7.63
4 CHEEKY ELLYSE $8.48
5 BODHI SAGE $10.47
1 GAELIC FLIGHT $11.63
2 MIDOR MISS $15.96
8 DONNA OMUFFIN $30.03

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 4

8 PLATINUM HEPPLE $4.08
1 TAYLA NICOLE $5.04
5 ONTO JATT $5.60
2 BUD THE BUILDER $8.53
4 TIGER JAMS $10.53
3 TRIGGER TRIM $11.70
6 ITS DEBATABLE $19.82
7 VEETEE MIST $33.57

RACE 5

5 SCARY SISTER $3.14
3 WHITE DIAMOND $5.32
1 BARROOM EXPRESS $5.91
10 DAINTREE RHUMBA $10.01
7 MAGIC BIT $12.36
6 NODS ONE $13.74
4 BUBBLE HEAD $23.26
8 SAGE JAY $35.46

[mighty_tiger_79]

I get to hit the TAB between jobs and now have a great guide

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 6

7 MCTHUMPA $3.76
1 DROMORES OPAL $5.74
6 ME THE CHIEF $6.37
2 MISS MATHIESON $7.87
8 DARK AVENGER $8.74
4 RILEYS CHARM $11.99
5 ASTERIX ROSE $20.31
3 BEFORE DAWN $34.40

RACE 7

8 DUSTY SKY $4.02
7 ACHAI $4.47
2 JAX MIKADO $6.81
1 SIMPLY MYSTIC $7.57
5 CASH OWNLEY $9.34
4 BLASTING BEAR $17.58
6 COSMIC COAD $19.54
3 BLACK FLORENCE $29.77

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 8

3 BLACK SELANDRA $3.83
8 BOOMA MIKADO $5.26
2 QUEEN OF PATONG $5.84
6 SPEEDIE RIOLI $8.90
10 TONTOS MATE $9.89
7 BAR NO BLUE $12.21
1 KEY LARGO PRINCE $18.61
4 LOOSE AFFAIR $35.02

RACE 9

8 BELLA VITALI $2.84
4 HELD HOSTAGE $5.33
3 ROCKIN RHONDA $6.59
6 GEE WHIZ GRAN $9.03
1 AMBER DIANE $10.04
7 ZEVA DIVA $18.89
5 RAGTIME JAYMEE $35.54
2 RUN PLEBBIE RUN $60.19

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 10

1 BAROQUE INN $3.16
4 MISS UTAMURRA $3.51
7 ANOTEROS $8.15
6 HOME ALONE $12.42
9 KIYOSHI $13.80
5 SNOWY HUNT $15.34
8 FALLEN STAR $28.86
10 MARVEY $43.98

[mighty_tiger_79]

Mixed results thus far

Just walked in to a nice over in race 8 #3.

That will be my first investment of the day

[Oaksnaf]

Mixed results thus far

Just walked in to a nice over in race 8 #3.

That will be my first investment of the day

Yeah I had #3 to lead and thought would be pretty close to LAW. Was unsure on #8 even through trial at Cranbourne is solid form for Warragul.

Always next race.

[mighty_tiger_79]

I made a profit.
I hit it mainly place at $2.20 fixed

[mighty_tiger_79]

Race 9

8 has pace to lead
I like the 4,6 to fill the main exotics and the 1 to run 4th

[mighty_tiger_79]

Thinking bets on 4,6 Warragul....

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 11

7 MASTER PHELPS $3.28
2 KOBES HAND $3.64
1 SONIC FEAR $6.85
4 BUCKLE UP BRETT $7.61
6 ASSERTIVE SEER $14.32
3 BROOKLYN CRUISER $21.83
8 OXYGEN BANDIT $36.97