OAKSY Doggies Tips

[Phil]

OK

[Phil]

Ap race 8 8 unless it breaks leg $100 place on the blue $50 on the 6

[Phil]

sorry only 2 place forget bets

[Phil]

keeping the bet on the 4 myself can afford it

[Phil]

blooody fckn beauty wish id bet eaw

[Phil]

nighty night tiger time to pull stumps for me early start tomorrow

[mighty_tiger_79]

Sweet dreams

Hope you made a profit

[Oaksnaf]

WGL AND BALLARAT

17 RACES
OUTLAY: $728
RETURN: $639
P/L: -$89

TOTAL
OUTLAY: $4048
RETURN: -$644
POT: -16%

Yet to really get a run on with the TOP ratings. In fact we have fallen behind JOE on returns.

We will add another bet to the calculations. Box Quinella 1,2 ratings X 10.
This will make the wagering nearly 50/50 for WIN bet and Exotics.
Is this somewhere where you really want to be?

We will make other adjustments after another 100 races for the WIN bets. This will prove vital to the P/L figures posted here.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Early look at Wednesday meeting which has been brought forward a little bit.

race 1

3-2-1-4
query on the first starter 6, only has to be half reasonable to win here.

these wont run any quicker than 30-70

the 3 is the best of the raced bunch.
2 - a non winner, just likes to run 2nd
1,4 are the next best picks.
I have the 4 behind the red, just due to the draw.

race 2 - horrible

race 3
another ordinary event
the 8 looks the top pick here tentatively, I think the 3 at good ew odds looks the place bet here, slowish out and runs on nicely.

race 4
not much to see here with the 8 winning and the 6 placing

race 7

the 1 due to the box and lack of pace in this race will find itself sitting in prime position on the first turn
6,7,8 all have pace to get across, but they could all cause issues for themselves.
1-6-7-8 are my numbers, they will be the first four in running all the way

race 8

a two dog war here between the 2,4. I have the 4 leading, but the 2 will be pushing it hard early on

race 10

1 is the pick here, down in grade, drawn to be right in the finish. the main danger would be the 4, a former vic runner, in a very good kennel

race 11
7 should lead this lot and get another win
3,5,2 are next in line and not much separates these here
the 1 is very capable of punching through and leading the inside division if it improves on its recent efforts
the 8 will get a soft run if it can just jump with the 7

[mighty_tiger_79]

Early squiz at Thursday nights meeting at Angle Park

race 1 - 7-1-4

the 7 leads and it just wins, can run good times on the bunny.
1 - goes ok from the inside and should lead the inner division
4 - will be steady out and will hold its spot

race 2

6 - just stands out, an ex vic, had 3 starts here which have all been solid and it has the times to win here. given the lack of depth in this it may start very short odds on

race 3
1 - average beginner and just likes to run 2nd
3 - yet to win this t/d after 17 tries, over the sprint trip will find these a little slick early but will be running on and if at big odds is worth throwing into the 3rd/4th spots
4 - down in grade here, however it doesn't appear overly genuine......if only....
5 - solid hope here, but it likes to hold a middle/wide racing line early
6 - has a 29-59 win not too long ago, but has been racing over the 600m last few. this race appeals for it to be a chance here, especially if anywhere near 29-59...

race 4
1 - walks out and charges home
2 - pings and leads
3 - 3rd run back from a break, should be ready to show something here, but will watch.
4 - mediocre early and storms home, vacant box 5 helps it early
6 - no hope
7 - has the ability to go forward early
8 - not against these.

so going into T1 -
2 leads from the 7 coming across out wide
4 probably settles 3rd with the 1,3
and if the 4 lobs 2nd on the first turn it wins.

race 5

I been waiting for the 3 to find a suitable race and here it is, should go close to LAW, unfortunately everyone has seen its efforts since arriving from WA and it wont be any flash odds...
7 is the main danger, it will push forward early also
6 - probably the class runner with the runs on the board, but it needs luck.

race 6

1,7,8 have the early pace and who leads wins
2 - non winner will settle just off the pace and should be certain place for the exotics

race 8
2-1-8

2 is the class runner
1 down in grade and suited from the inside
8 handles the pink and will get the clear run out wide

race 9

either the 2,6 win here

race 10
a couple that should be good odds here the 6,7.

[Oaksnaf]

WGL has been a real struggle of late. At least TIER 3 Geelong is here to save us.

RACE 1

4 LUNCHMONEY LEWIS $3.63
8 RUSTY PATCHES $4.49
6 VON SCHNITZEL $4.98
3 HEINEKEN GIRL $8.44
1 ABBEWIGE GOLD $12.87
7 WHIPSTICK SID $21.79
2 CATHYS TIGER $26.90
5 ITS BURGER TIME $45.55

RACE 2

8 BARON CHARLIE $3.75
6 LIMBURG PRINCESS $4.62
1 SNOW BOMBER $7.05
2 IVE GOT SPIRIT $7.83
3 MIGHTY DUCK $10.74
4 BLITZEN BELL $13.26
5 BUFFYS BEAR $20.21
7 LOTS OF TROUBLE $34.23

RACE 3

7 OK JAKE $2.26
1 JARLETH $5.25
6 ALLEN OTHELLO $9.88
5 DYNA LEONA $10.98
3 SERMON ALLEN $13.55
8 YOU CAN $20.66
2 OLIVES CHOICE $31.48
9 IZA COMIN $47.99

RACE 4

1 CAMELOT ROSE $4.27
2 DYNA PARLANCE $5.27
3 LIMBURG AVA $7.22
8 MISSIONS PRIDE $8.03
6 SISCO MAMA $8.92
5 DANGER BALE $11.01
4 STORM TROOPER $15.10
7 TIPPY ALLEN $23.02

RACE 5

6 FIORELLI ROSE $3.73
2 PEARCE $6.32
10 ASHTASTIC $7.02
1 LADY LURCHER $7.80
4 BARCIAS FATE $9.63
3 GUNBARREL TWIST $10.70
8 JOLLY BALE $16.31
9 MILWALCAR $22.38

RACE 6

3 COOLAN GIRL $2.66
6 FAITHFUL DYNASTY $5.01
4 TRIXIE DIAMOND $9.43
1 BABY BLITZEN $11.64
5 BELOCETTE $12.94
8 MY DOLLY MOLLY $14.37
2 SRING DRIFTER $17.75
7 ROADRUNNER THIEF $33.39

RACE 7

2 ALL OVER $3.37
6 AMLINS MAGIC $4.16
3 BARONESS MOLLY $6.35
1 JACKS PRINCE $8.71
4 LEKTRA LUTHER $13.27
8 HOT AND LONESOME $20.23
5 FAWN PURSUIT $24.97
7 REIKO BALE $38.06

RACE 8

6 SANZMAN $4.35
5 MOONLIGHT CRUISE $5.37
4 MAXIMUM MELVA $5.96
3 NINJA BALE $8.18
2 BABS BALE $9.09
8 UNO SPARTI $12.47
1 ROLL EM MISSY $15.39
7 INITIAL FACTOR $26.06

[mal]

HORSHAM DOGS 1/3/2016
PLACE PROBABILITY
I have a formula I use to ascertain which dogs have the highest and lowest probability of running 1-2-3
It has reasonable success
Must be used as a guide only

Numbers grouped together are equal rated

PLEASE DO NOT USE RATINGS IF THERE ARE ANY SCRATCHINGS IN THESE RACES


RACE 3
8
3
4
5
1
2
10
7

RACE 4
8
7
10
2
1
4
6
5

RACE 5
6
2
3-4-8
5
1
9

RACE 6
2
8
4
7
3

RACE 9
2
3
1-5
8
6
4-7

RACE 10
2
6
3
8
1
4-7
5

RACE 11
2-4
3
6
7-8
1
7

RACE 12
1
2
10
6
4
3-7
8

[Oaksnaf]

Gawler just about to win, wouldn't mind some extra cash for Geelong MT !
Will just back the best of your top 2 picks.

HORSHAM

RACE 3

8 WATTA RUSH $3.73
1 ZULU AEGIS $5.68
3 PAY THE BOO $7.02
2 ZULU HERCULES $8.66
5 JUST TOOIE $10.70
4 STARS BIG BOY $11.89
10 SOUTHY $13.21
7 CYCLONE DOTTIE $22.36

RACE 4

8 VELOBELL $3.42
7 CYRMELON FETTLE $5.80
2 RED HOT BELLA $6.44
6 LEKTRA DAME $7.96
4 MAXIMUM KICK $12.12
9 EAGLEHAWK BEFFA $13.47
1 FRUIT SPICE $18.48
5 ULTRA BRIGHT $22.82

[mighty_tiger_79]

Haven't looked at Gawler thus far.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Great work Oaksy
Geelong
Got on r1 #4 on betfair

[mal]

Please note
MAL place raters
R4-10 should be R4-9

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 5

2 ALLEN DYNAMO $3.95
4 ALL INN BOSTON $4.39
6 MYSTIC MARLOW $6.70
1 BROTHER MOSES $8.27
3 JUST BE PATIENT $12.60
5 POKER DATE $14.00
10 TALLY HO LEN $15.56
9 CRYMELON ORBIT $29.27

RACE 7

4 SUNDAY SIPPER $2.62
7 SAINT ELITE $6.09
6 BOUNTY $7.52
9 LITTLE MAKRIL $8.36
8 ASTON ASTEROID $10.32
2 CRYMELON PINK $15.73
10 TALLY HO BILLY $23.98

RACE 8

6 MARVELOUS MARVIN $1.89 52.89%
3 COOL BOOTS $7.44 13.44%
1 PICTURES PEARCE $11.34 8.82%
8 CRACKERJACK DAK $12.60 7.94%
5 MIGHTY SAM $15.55 6.43%
4 MENDES $17.28 5.79%
2 STARBRIGHT TARA $21.33 4.69%

[Oaksnaf]

Great work Oaksy
Geelong
Got on r1 #4 on betfair

Timing is everything ,weren't too many more winners for top rating for the day !

How did you go at Gawler, I missed all the races today as was busy.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Managed to lay r10 #1 at Gawler for a small profit

[Oaksnaf]

HORSHAM

RACE 9

2 HO CHOI $3.63
8 GOLDEN WARRIOR $4.03
3 PODIUM BOUND $6.14
1 FROZEN NITRO $8.43
4 SWIFT LACEY $11.56
5 TALLY HO TINK $17.62
7 LITTLE BIT MORE $29.83
6 TINY PROFIT $56.13

RACE 10

6 NO JOCKEY NEEDED $4.09
2 RENNICANE $5.61
3 COSMIC LILY $6.24
7 JACKIE BAXTER $8.55
8 RED HOT MILLIE $9.50
1 AGILITY $11.73
5 SENOR LAURIE $13.04
4 MECHATRONIC $30.29

RACE 11

4 PACIFIC ANGEL $3.06
6 HANDSOME COSMO $5.18
2 SMOKESTER $8.77
1 ORIENTAL LORD $9.74
3 SPARKLETINI $12.02
5 EXIT ZERO $13.36
8 GOOD ODDS JET $16.49
7 MISS MURDEROUS $22.63