OAKSY Doggies Tips

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 11

4 ENCEE EYE GIBBS $3.61
5 UNBOUND $4.46
7 MOTANGI $6.79
8 LEKTRA LUTHER $7.55
6 BLACK SENOR $9.32
1 INVENTOR $15.78
2 SUKI SUKI $32.99
3 MINER RUSH $55.87

RACE 12

7 DA MISHKA $3.75
2 RUBYS FAITH $4.17
4 SILVER WOOD $6.35
5 STROKE OF GENUIS $7.84
6 MAKE ME CLASSY $11.95
3 JONI SUNSET $13.28
8 FIREBALL JACK $20.24

[Phil]

couldn't let Master Phelps in race 5 go without backing it eaw, monster overs got 48/6.1 on the tote

[Oaksnaf]

HVL TODAY

OUT: $576
IN: $457.50
P/L: -$118.50

TOTAL
OUT: $7542
P/L: -$387.40
POT: -5%

As mentioned once we hit the 200 race mark, we will change the way we WAGER the WIN bet. This will slowly turn our figure around. Will explain later today.

Well done Phil getting on Master Phelps, the only real runner with track experience, drawn near the inside, and was well over the odds.

[Oaksnaf]

VALUE is key in this caper. For those who can win on level stakes WIN wagering I salute you. I have never been able to be in front on level stakes for my top rating selection in the past 10 years using the closing price from S-TAB. In fact I finish the years off around -4% for top rating. At least I am a consistent loser. But what I can do, is win backing the OVERLAY.

I do trust my markets as my S/R are nearly in perfect order. So at least I know I am on the right path there. If my handicapping wasn't in order, IE: my 2nd rating or 3rd rating wins more than my top rating, then it wouldn't be easy going.

For the sake of the FORUM, we will be calculating the profit on the closing FIXED odds TAB price (as we know totes fluctuate very quickly, but the fixed odds move slowly).

We will be wagering on ANY OVERLAY. So Rating 1 to Rating 8.
The size of the bet will be $200/odds = bet size.

As you can see we are -5% POT after 200 races.

OUR new Wagering is as follows:

WIN BET; $200/odds = bet amount. Accepted bets will be based on closing FIXED ODDS on S-TAB

Quinella: Box 1,2 X $16
Exacta: 1-2 X $9
Exacta: 2-1 X $6
Trifecta: 1-2-3 X $3.50
Trifecta: 2-1-3 X $1.50
F4: 1-2-3-4 X $1

EXOTICS: $37 per race
WIN BET: Expected average $95 per race.

So our wagering is now 70% Win 30% Exotic - about where I like it to be.

So let us see how we progress for the next 200 races.

Be interested to here how others are structuring their wagering.

Also while I might be -5% on level stakes for top rating. JOE is -15%. JOE is -24% for 2nd rating in this 200 races I've analysed.

Happy Punting.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Great analysis Oaksy

[mighty_tiger_79]

I will provide my haphazard staking in the near future

[Oaksnaf]

BALLARAT TIER 3 ACTION

RACE 1

1 BLONDE YAPPA $4.19
7 FEARING PEGGY $4.66
6 SWEET SHIRAZ $6.39
2 KRISBAR FLY HALF $7.10
5 IMA LARA LASS $8.77
4 RIVERDALE STORM $16.50
3 CORGI SWAB $20.37
8 COSMIC EARNER $38.33

RACE 2

2 BEDLUM $3.49
4 LETTUCE HOLD ON $5.32
7 BOOMER $5.91
8 LIMITER BURST $10.01
6 CALLAWAY $11.12
5 SENNI BONES $13.73
1 CARLANNA TEGAN $15.26
3 NO REPLY $35.44

RACE 3

5 BURNSIDE CHARLIE $3.92
2 MONALEEN DEEJAY $4.36
1 JARLETH $5.38
7 RENEGADE REBEL $7.39
3 CRACKERJACK SAM $10.13
6 RISING ASSETS $23.53
4 IMA TERROR $32.28
8 MA MA MARTY $44.28

RACE 4

4 ONYA JATT $4.27
8 TIZZA TREASURE $5.27
6 ALPHA DAVID $5.86
7 BEKLANA $6.51
1 CHADS BIG BOY $8.03
3 REGAL SPICE $12.24
2 PARROT IS LOOSE $35.11
5 GYPSY GAZZA $59.46

RACE 5

2 BORIS LEE $2.64
8 DONTRON $4.02
1 GOLDEN FANG $8.40
3 LADY LURCHER $11.53
4 BARTEMIUS CROUCH $14.23
6 RUNNING HOME $17.57
5 OK OLLIE $40.81
7 PRUE JAY $69.11

RACE 6

6 ASTERIX ROSE $4.35
3 PASON SANDER $4.84
1 MCTHUMPA $6.63
8 DYNAMITE DIXIE $7.37
7 VELOCITY ALICE $9.10
2 STETSON QUAMBY $12.48
4 ALL BOOTS $19.03
5 ABBIES ROSE $29.00

RACE 7

2 NEV TIME $3.12
4 VANE BLUE $5.88
5 JELLYBEAN JESS $6.53
1 NEW CLUB CRAWF $8.06
6 SPLISH SPLASHIN $11.06
7 LETS GO BLACKY $13.65
3 KARAOKE KEN $20.81
9 MR ALOUETTE $48.34

RACE 8 **UPDATED**

4 ITS AN ILLUSION $4.66
9 CLARETOWN LOUISE $5.18
2 MAHOGANY SAPHIRE $5.76
6 SMOOTH REBEL $7.11
3 CLASS AIRE $9.75
1 BOJACK KAHN $10.83
8 REX ON $12.03


RACE 9

1 COSMIC GEORGE $3.94
5 SUGAR MCGUNDY $4.86
4 SCOTS DUNKER $6.67
2 ANNALEY NAE NAE $7.41
3 SEABROOK OSCAR $9.15
7 PEDALLIKNG PETE $13.95
8 NO NEGOTIATION $19.13
6 WEST SIDE JET $44.45

RACE 10

8 CALL ME DEITA $2.53
6 STRESSFUL $5.88
4 WINTER BLUES $6.53
2 KILTYS TIGER $11.06
1 STRESS STAR $12.28
5 ROSIE BAY $15.17
3 CARLANNA JOBE $35.23
7 RED BOMBER $66.29

RACE 11

2 EXIT ZERO $2.85
5 HARVEST GOLD $5.96
7 CARLY JAY $8.18
1 ACQUITTED $10.10
6 DIANES LASS $11.22
8 HELERAY JARDA $12.47
4 DON FIRE $19.00
9 FLYING CASEY $26.06

RACE 12

5 BALI ALLEN $3.30
2 TREDGAR $6.21
3 DARK TANTRA $7.67
1 RICH AZZ YEEW $8.52
7 ARGYLE DIAMOND $10.52
6 VEETEE GLAMOUR $11.69
4 NINJA ZORRO $16.04
8 HYPER VELOCITY $22.00

Happy Punting !

[mighty_tiger_79]

Good job Oaksy

Got some household chores tobget through today but will be trying to invest into these suggestions

[Oaksnaf]

Hope you were able to invest into R6. Would have been some nice collects to make you feel better about doing the chores.

[Oaksnaf]

HUGE DAY

OUTLAY: $1600
RETURN :$4736
P/L: +$3,136

TOTAL:
OUTLAY: $9,142
P/L; +$2,748.60
POT: +30%

As per the recent post outlining our new wagering structure, our average 12 race meeting spend has increased by X 3 from $500 to around $1500.

So you can expect the swings to be larger than before. Maybe we got a bit lucky with DAY 1 of the new FORUM wagering being a real success, but we would be much further in front if website hadn't crashed during Traralgon Tier 3 action. So we take the good with the bad.

We picked a $27 winner from the top rating, 4/12 races our top 2 quinella the race. 4 FIXED odds overlays won from the day too. So these days don't happen too often. Enjoy them.

Plenty in the kitty for MT SA action tonight.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Unfortunately a few distractions got in the way of wagering and form for tonight.

Great work today Oaksy. No matter how anyone wagers your selections, they should profit.

[Oaksnaf]

Unfortunately a few distractions got in the way of wagering and form for tonight.

Great work today Oaksy. No matter how anyone wagers your selections, they should profit.

Don't worry I could find plenty of ways to lose wagering against my ratings. But they mostly involve level stakes.

Dyna Lachlan from Box 1 at Meadows back in the day ruined my head as a punter. A $3,000 collect won through an emotive bet, not a structured bet. From there I was trusting my emotion more than my structure, which ultimately led the year to a loss. Cold Alcatraz at Cranbourne, massive winner one night. Thinking "big odds" = "no chance" did take a long time to reverse.

Confidence in structure is what works for me. Emotion is my worst enemy.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Emotion is most punters worst enemy when you have a lack of confidence in your market

[Phil]

Many thanks Oaksy wd!

[Oaksnaf]

GEELONG TIER 3

RACE 1

1 ALLEN ZECHS $2.07
4 DREAM WAVE $7.34
5 BARON CHARLIE $8.15
8 WITTY BALE $12.42
7 SUSPICIOUS LEE $15.34
6 CATHYS TIGER $17.04
2 EMILIA CASH $32.07
3 ITS BURGER TIME $43.99

RACE 2

4 LIMBURG AVA $3.38
2 TIPPY ALLEN $5.72
6 MISSIONS PRIDE $6.36
7 LIL TAY $8.72
3 DELAVIOUS $9.69
8 DYNA LEONA $13.29
5 POPPY PETE $20.25
1 BUGATTI LARGER $34.30

RACE 3

2 BLOWN TURBO $3.85
7 PRINCESS JASMINE $4.75
1 MISTEL ALLEN $7.24
6 BAZZ KEBAB $8.05
8 JUST SMILE $9.93
5 TEXAS BLAZE $12.26
4 MAGIC BIT $18.69
3 LEKTRA KIRKY $31.65

RACE 4

8 TIGRA TRON $3.07
6 WOBBLER $4.68
7 MISS UTOPIA $5.77
3 RIBACOLA $7.92
4 BARONESS TIFFIE $12.07
2 SPEED CHILL $20.44
1 COUNTRY BALLAD $34.61

RACE 5

8 ELITE CIRCLE $3.36
3 TWO SNAPS $5.69
5 DONS LICKER $6.32
1 STRAIGHT AWAY $7.80
2 ELITE FAZE $10.70
6 BARONESS MOLLY $13.21
7 BARN A SHAKIN $20.14
4 HARDYS ME MUM $46.79

RACE 6

1 GINGER SPEED $2.27
2 SIMPLY VIVACIOUS $4.27
3 ROAD TO VEGAS $7.23
5 BARONESS JILL $15.11
8 SPRING DRIFTER $16.79
6 TANTRUM TOMMY $28.44
7 KOKO CABANA $39.01

RACE 7

2 MAKIKOS $3.43
6 BOB ON $4.71
8 SOUTHWOOD MAX $5.81
1 PICTURES OF ME $8.86
3 BLITZEN BELL $10.94
4 JAX MARMION $16.68
5 MAGIC BUNNY $25.42
7 GUNBARREL TWIST $47.83

RACE 8

7 MORNING CRUISE $3.37
3 PARAGON DIAMOND $5.71
4 CADENCE BALE $6.34
2 TINA TWO $7.83
5 REIKO BALE $13.26
1 DAWN CRUISE $14.73
8 LEMON PATCHWORK $18.19
6 SILLYBILLY BLING $22.46

RACE 9

1 FURIOSA $3.34
4 HENRYS FAULT $4.12
3 ALL NOISE $6.29
7 AXEL BOY $6.99
5 MISS SIM $13.14
9 SILVERMERE $24.73
8 BARON BOB $41.89
2 NIKON BALE $63.84

[Oaksnaf]

HORSHAM

RACE 3

6 ALLEN KEMPO $3.59
7 HY GUARD $4.43
2 ARROW ALLEN $5.47
1 SHES GOT GRACE $8.34
4 LEMON CHICKEN $11.44
8 GOLD MAGIC $19.37
5 LITTLE BIT MORE $29.52
3 AREJAY BELLE $49.99


RACE 5

7 GREYSYND CHIEF $3.53
6 COOL BOOTS $5.38
5 CRACKERJACK PEST $5.98
4 GO GO ROSCO $8.21
1 TWO TEAMS UMPIRE $10.13
3 GEORGE MIST $11.26
8 DIREWOLF GHOST $26.15
2 MECHATRONIC $60.75

[mighty_tiger_79]

Horsham

1 - 6,2,7,3
2 - 5,1,3,6
3- 1,6,2,3
4-8,7,3,6
5- 6,7,3,5
6 - 8,6,2,1
7 - 3,5,2,1
8 - 7,5,1,6
9 - 9,2,1,8,6
10 - 6,8,7,4
11 - 1,4,7,2
12 - 1,4,6,5

[Oaksnaf]

HORSHAM RACE 7

2 WHATS UP TRUMPS $3.66
5 MYSTIC MARLOW $4.52
6 DRAPER BALE $5.02
7 IMMORTAL POWER $7.65
1 HOME RUNNER $10.50
3 BECOME THE FUSE $17.78
8 GALLOPING ASHLEY $41.30

Nicely done R5 MT - great overs on COOL BOOTS.

[Oaksnaf]

Horsham

1 - 6,2,7,3
2 - 5,1,3,6
3- 1,6,2,3
4-8,7,3,6
5- 6,7,3,5
6 - 8,6,2,1
7 - 3,5,2,1
8 - 7,5,1,6
9 - 9,2,1,8,6
10 - 6,8,7,4
11 - 1,4,7,2
12 - 1,4,6,5

RACE 8

6 FAB HARRIET $3.76
7 ALLEN MARKY $4.64
5 MAXIMUM CHEZ $5.16
4 OLD JOCK $6.37
2 FEAR HELVETIA $10.79
1 JAXON RULZ $13.32

[Oaksnaf]

HORSHAM RACE 9

8 RED HOT BELLA $3.57
6 THOMELI ROAR $5.44
2 MOOLOOLABA MAGIC $6.04
7 STORM CHIEF $9.21
3 JUST TOOIE $10.24
1 FLASH DEEDS $12.64
10 ALCHEMY $17.34
4 ONE MISSISSIPPI $36.25