by LPH » Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:37 pm
3/9/2016
So here we are again, Spring time. Can Winx do a Sunline & win a 2nd Cox Plate? Will an Australian Horse win the Melbourne Cup like the 100/1 outsider last year? Can Simon O’Donnell finally buy his way to a winning ‘OTI Racing’ Cup winner? Will Waller or O’Shea be able to combat Weir’s dominance of Victorian Racing? Or will the ‘Hayes Camp’ shine after such a long ‘lay-off’ during the formation of his new ‘Lindsey Park’?
It will no doubt be exciting to observe over the next 15 or so weeks ☺
So to this week;
Mooney Valley:
It is always important when doing form @ ‘The Valley” to keep in mind those runners who have won or placed @ the track – preferably won & more than once. I also think that Barriers & position in running, particularly between the 4 furlongs & around the turn – so the ‘camber’ in the track is considered a bit like a ‘sling-shot’ down the short straight. I assume you guys would know this anyway, but these factors always influence my thoughts when ‘doing the form’.
Race 8 – Dato Tan Chin Nam
Speed Map suggests that The Cleaner, Entirely Platinum, Miss Rose De Lago & Mahuta push forward. I expect Jacquinot Bay & the Top Weight to push up from inside draws. The United States & Set Square go back.
The Cleaner will set a good tempo – has a great record Track & Trip & should take running down. 9 Starts for 5 wins at the track reads well, so does 4 from 4 Track & distance. These facts alone mean he gets at least a PLACE ticket & $4.60 the Place is over the odds IMHO. Against is his age – as a general rule I don’t like backing 9 yr olds. If he gets to ‘settle’ up front & between the 7 & 5 furlong pegs then he’s a BIG show of winning.
If the pace is on up front – let’s say that Entirely Platinum takes him on over the first 400 to 500m of the race, then it is set up for the ‘swoopers’. A horse like Suavito looks well placed to use the ‘camber’ to her advantage. Again, great record track & trip, maps well in terms of being able to ‘get out’ around the turn. If this happens, then I can see 2 other runners latching on to her back & swooping down the outside. Both I think are potential Caulfield Cup horses – The United States ($15) & Set Square ($26).
TBH, I already backed Set Square for tomorrow’s race on Ladbrokes Odds Boost earlier in the week. I actually don’t think she’ll win the race – Place is best. I do think she can win the Caulfield Cup. I am actually going to my first Caulfield Cup this year, so I have been looking at the possibilities for a while now. As for The United States, I think he can WIN this race tomorrow. Is 5/1 too short? For me it is, but if he were to get out to 7’s ($8) then I’d back him.
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 10, 11, 13
Race 6 – The Atlantic Jewel
I am stunned that the Hayes runner Zamzam is 16/1 … Those odds are too good to refuse & the 21/1 with odds boost could not be ignored. $5 Place is very nice too. Only concern for me is the 2nd up record but that’s only one start & as a 2 yr old. Get On Eachway – 1 x 3 units
Randwick:
How many bloody wet tracks in Sydney over the past 2 months???
Heavy tomorrow at this stage & with more rain tonight its unlikely that will change by the time racing begins in the morning.
The Chelmsford used to be run at Warwick Farm before the merger of Race Clubs. It has traditionally been a bit of a ‘weak’ Group 1 race but the inclusion of the mare Winx & the Godolphin runner Hartnel make this year’s race a good quality affair.
Race 7 The Chelmsford Stakes:
Waller dominates the race again – same as last year.
No doubt the smaller field is directly related to the Champion Mare Winx being nominated for the race.
Can Hartnel beat her? Not on this Weight Scale IMHO.
Apart from those who can afford to risk ‘6 figures’ on her, will anyone seriously consider backing her @ $1.15? “Not this little Black Duck”.
Hartnel @ $1.70 the Place is better value but I am happy to watch the race, personally. Winx will win.
Race 8 The Tramway:
Track will be cut up by this race for sure. Looking for wet form & form up to the Mile.
Top Weight Le Romain is the one for me. A little concerned by the gate, think he’ll be 5th or 6th after they jump. McEvoy will need to get him out coming around the turn, perhaps pushing Hauraki or Dibayani into the race, coming over the rise in the straight. He’s 2 wins & 2 placings from 4 starts @ the track & 2nd up form is good too. He ‘ticks all the boxes’ for me & I am very happy with the 6/1 & if you can get $2.50 the Place, I think he’s an excellent Bet, Eachway.
There we go Lads. Enjoy the start of the Spring Racing tomorrow. Hopefully we can get a few winners up.
Stephen Trigg & Rob Chapman are SA Football Patriots
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