Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[mighty_tiger_79]

Jesus fookin Mohammed

All around the mark, for 4th-5th close up

[LPH]

Reasonable Day - couple of Trifectas & Denmagic was a massive collect!

So Si Bon is still trying to get out - bad ride by Bowman IMHO.
'Hutchy' was on fire today MT - he tipped Almandin for the Cup, so that's worth a ticket.

At least we have some cash for Tuesday

[mighty_tiger_79]

The Cup looks ordinary for mine.
I was gonna try and get the arvo off, but I'm not so fussed now

[LPH]

The Cup looks ordinary for mine.
I was gonna try and get the arvo off, but I'm not so fussed now

I don't disagree with the sentiments, but...
I think that gives Us (the Punters) an 'in'.
Firmly believe Godolphin hold the key to the race - they want to win it, badly.

I've had a quick look, after the Barrier Draw. Early bet on No. 21 Secret Number - $51 Boosted on Ladbrokes & $11 Place UBET.
I think its weighted to win the race - ran 2nd as Favorite in the Queen Elizabeth 12 months ago, carrying 58kgs, & drops to 52kgs here.

Big ask for Oceanographer to win (even run in top 5) having his 3rd run in 13 days, having already run over 2400m & 2500m, then back up on Tuesday with another 3200m - very worthy winner if he can win!

More to come over the next couple of days, Boys.

P.S. Where's MY Coronas, Corona?

[Corona Man]

The Cup looks ordinary for mine.
I was gonna try and get the arvo off, but I'm not so fussed now

I don't disagree with the sentiments, but...
I think that gives Us (the Punters) an 'in'.
Firmly believe Godolphin hold the key to the race - they want to win it, badly.

I've had a quick look, after the Barrier Draw. Early bet on No. 21 Secret Number - $51 Boosted on Ladbrokes & $11 Place UBET.
I think its weighted to win the race - ran 2nd as Favorite in the Queen Elizabeth 12 months ago, carrying 58kgs, & drops to 52kgs here.

Big ask for Oceanographer to win (even run in top 5) having his 3rd run in 13 days, having already run over 2400m & 2500m, then back up on Tuesday with another 3200m - very worthy winner if he can win!

More to come over the next couple of days, Boys.

P.S. Where's MY Coronas, Corona?

Mate I didn't get on... kicking myself. The sportsbet account is looking a bit sick.... so I have held off til Tuesday to have a decent crack... spewin!

[LPH]

Did not have a collect last week... Need some good oil for this Sat... Carn lads!

Was this NOT you???
Mate, what more can a man do than tip you a $11 Fixed Odds PLACE Bet???
(Sorry you missed it )

[Corona Man]

Did not have a collect last week... Need some good oil for this Sat... Carn lads!

Was this NOT you???
Mate, what more can a man do than tip you a $11 Fixed Odds PLACE Bet???
(Sorry you missed it )

Guilty as charged!

[mighty_tiger_79]

That's just quite simply poor form Corona, I mean I guess it's true, you can lead a horse to water.....

[gadj1976]

Did not have a collect last week... Need some good oil for this Sat... Carn lads!

Get yourself off to a good start.

Mr 1 1 Hey Doc currently 4.60 on Ubet.

Summed up my day really.

But I did like the look of Oceanographer prior to yesterday so I put a speculator on.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Melbourne cup preview

*Have been drinking homebrew and now on the Amarula

1 - I think is well weighted from last year. Was close up. Big chance
2 - I can see this being an exotic 3-4th at best.
3 - the Japanese runner, they have been and conquered previously, I'm prepared to risk
4 - no
5 - Caulfield cup run was sound, think it can be thereabouts
6 - the fav, I can't touch it, it may win with a leg in the air, but not with me on.
7 - distance is no issue but poorly weighted against the 11 who defeated it last time
8 - the barrier concerns me, if you can get $40 it's worth including in exotics, otherwise no.
9- solid run in the Caulfield Cup, but won't figure here, probably 4th at the very best.
10 - Sydney cup winner, so distance no issue, poorly weighted against the 11
11 - will stay all day, reasonable barrier, settles in the front half. Not sure it has the class to win, but a definite 3rd-4th hope
12 - ticks all my boxes
13- big question mark, so no
14- no, not upto this lot
15 - again the 11 and the 1 are better weighted so no
16 - no hope
17- hitting good form, but a poor barrier, may have too much work to do early. No
18 - no
19 - at the odds vs 20 and a weight advantage I'd prefer this.
20- yes a solid win on Saturday but I do think there is an over reaction, so at the price I'd risk
21 - No,
22 - if it didn't run on Saturday I may have considered this a rough place hope, Saturdays run turned me off.
23 - a superb LAW at Geelong, yes a weaker race this year than previous, but every horse had its chance that day to go past and didn't. Again the odd difference between him and 20 is just stupid.
24- well drawn, well weighted but she is no Empire Rose...

[LPH]

1/ 11/ 2016 – Melbourne Cup Day

Can you believe its Cup Day again? Seems to come around faster every year. Another Melbourne Cup Field dominated by overseas runners – some of which, yet again, haven’t had a run here before the Cup run. I know I ‘bang on’ about it a bit, but when will Racing Victoria change the rules to make them run at least once before a big race here? Its so unfair on the Punter! Rant over.
Now to the preview; I will leave the Cup Preview to last because that has so many ‘variables’ to consider.

Flemington Race 9 – Security Sprint 1200m

It was interesting that the ‘fast lane’ on Saturday was the outside. Will this continue on Tuesday? Not so sure about that – I’m thinking by the time this race is run, they may well be coming down the centre & the inside. Big field means big prices, generally, & early markets suggest 4/1 the Field.

Can entertain a number of these as winning chances, but I’ve settled on No. 16 Flippant.
The Snowdens have the favourite in the race, Ravi, but I think Flippant will get a better run, just off the speed, sitting in behind Faatinah & Tried & Tired. At the $20 Boosted, I took it Sunday, 1 x 4 Units. She was well backed 1st Up & didn’t have much luck. She’s run well against Mahuta, too. So at the price I’m happy to gamble on her. I concede winning chances to 2 back-markers in No 4 Illustrious Lad (Trainer/Jockey combination going well) & if the outside is still the place to be, then No 14 Well Sprung can run well too.

Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 6, 9, 14, 16

Flemington Race 2 – TAB Trophy 1700m

Could manage to start the day off well here with a nice Eachway chance in No 6 Amarela.
Like Blackiston as a trainer of middle distance horses, particularly Mares. She likes to go back in her races, so she’s likely to be giving the leaders a start here, but from the nice gate, she’ll get a nice cozy run. I can see Walker getting her out about the 350m mark, & if she can sustain a long run, I think she can run over the top of these. I think the weight is against the 2 Hayes runners, & apart from No 7 Eqypt, the depth is thin in this race IMHO - she’s been racing against better quality horses than what’s in this field, & Amarela at the Double figure quote, she’ll do me: 2 x 5 Units.

Box Trifecta: 3, 6, 7, 8, 12

And so, to the Cup… Flemington Race 7 – The Melbourne Cup

I’ve given this year’s Cup consideration for a couple of weeks now. Once again, it’s a VERY difficult task to try & find the winner. With the ‘exotics’ available on the race, this might be the way to go – although finding value in these types of bets can be a difficult task.

I have decided to approach the race a little differently this year. For a number of years, I’ve been applying a ‘formula’ based System to the Trifecta – Winning 20% of the Dividend in 2009, when Shocking beat Crime Scene (I also backed Crime Scene @ $15 the Place that year), but that hasn’t worked since & I think its because of the huge increase in Overseas Runners, now. So, I'm changing it up slightly.

Interestingly, the 2016 Version of the race has no less than 8 runners that ran in the race last year (No. 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 15) – that’s a 1/3 of the Field!!!
No. 1, 8, 11, 12, 13, 17, 18, 20, 21, 23 are all last start Winners.
No. 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 have ALL Won at 2400m+,
with 1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 22, 23 all having won at 3200m +

The Cup is more often than not, won by 4, 5, 6 or 7 year olds – Of this year’s field, only No 3 & No 14 are not in this category – No 12 Jameka is the only 4 yr old, of which 42 winners of the Cup have been 4 yr olds.
Only 2 x 8 yr olds, have won the Cup, 5 yr olds (44) & 6 yr olds (30).
Only 10 x 7 yr olds have won (the last 3 being Makybe Diva ’05, Rogan Josh ’99, Vintage Crop ’93). 4 of the last 6 winners have been 6 yr olds.

5 yr olds: No. 4, 5, 19, 20, 22
6 yr olds: No. 1, 6, 10, 18
There are 9 x 7 yr olds in this year’s field!

Barriers don’t really come into it – but that said, Barrier 18 has NEVER won.
If number of starts count for anything, then those with less than 20 career starts are: No 1, 4, 5, 10, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21.
The only horses to win at the Track are: No. 6, 7, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17, 20.
No. 3, 5, 8, 13, 16, 19, 23 having never run at ‘Headquarters’.

Only 5 x 4 yr old Mares have won the Cup, with Light Fingers carrying the most weight (52.5 kgs) – 2 kgs LESS than Jameka has to ‘lug’ on Tuesday. History says she will find it hard to win the race!

In the end, does any of the information mentioned mean anything to the 2016 running of ‘The Great Race’???
Perhaps…
Here are some things that I have considered important in isolating a possible winner:
Must be $21 or less in the Market – non-negotiable

1. Must draw a barrier no worse than 16 (Award 3 pts)
2. Must’ve run in Top 5 in last 3 x starts (Award 5 pts)
3. Must be 4, 5 or 6 yr old (Award 4 points)
4. Must carry NO MORE than 55.5kgs (Award 3 points)
5. Must’ve won over at least 2400m (Award 5 points)
6. Must’ve run at track at least once (Award 3 points)

So, what does that mean?

1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, 13, 17, 20, 23 are all $21 or less on Sunday

1. 1, 4, 5, 6, 12, 20, 23
2. 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 13, 17, 23
3. 1, 4, 5, 6, 12, 20
4. 12, 13, 17, 20, 23
5. 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, 13, 17, 20, 23
6. 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 12, 17, 20

No 1: (20); No. 4: (20); No 5 (17); No. 6 (20); No. 12 (23); No. 13(11); No. 17 (16);
No. 20 (18); No. 23 (16). Order: 12, 1-4-6, 20, 23, 5, 17, 13 - due to the questions over Jameka (weight & distance) – I’m risking her to win.

Trifecta for 20%: 1, 4, 6 / 1, 4, 5, 6, 12, 13, 17, 20, 23 / Field = $105.60

Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 5, 8, 13, 21

Win/Place: No. 17 Almandin
Roughie: No 21. Secret Number

There you go Lads – sorry about the length of the Preview, but as always there’s a lot to consider. Fingers Crossed.

[mighty_tiger_79]

A system I read about a while ago for Melbourne Cup revolves around the lead up races here in Oz, so there are the International horses that haven't raced here so they are already out of contention.

It came up with
5,20,22 however I am a little bit lenient and happy to add the 1,11,12 with those in a some exotic tickets.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Gotta love the comments from the trainer of Grey Lion on Jameka saying that she will be looking for mummy and daddy with 400m to run....cos she's bred to be a sprinter.....

He will be in for a shock.

[LPH]

Yeah, saw that... interesting.
I tend to agree, to a point - as I think the weight will begin to tell but not until the last furlong.
A fast paced race might also find her out.
We shall see...

[mighty_tiger_79]

I see Jameka easily getting the 2 miles.
I see her sitting in the top 8 on settling.
I can see her tracking nicely into the straight and pulling out with 300m to go and going whoosh.
The weight doesn't concern me greatly.
On weights, I do think the tippy is well suited.


I watched the racing.com preview yesterday, and my god does 'Gator' have an issue with last year's cup and interference.....what Melbourne Cup doesn't have interference???
I love Maher as a trainer and his work with Jameka but I did enjoy Lee Freedman more open and honest assessment of the runners

[LPH]

Yep, top weight is well suited.
Thought Maher didn't want to be there & wasn't prepared to say anything about other runners - pointless panelist IMHO.
Gator must've lost plenty - 'Get On' should be on tonight, I think.
Hutchy has the better 'strike rate' - he tipped Almandin on Thursday. Glad I took the $17 yesterday, has shortened significantly today, Fixed Odds.

Am wondering how much rain will fall - heard differing reports.
Track drains well but anything Soft 7 or Heavy 8 (unlikely, I know) brings Our Ivanhow into calculations.
Still happy with my Roughie - the more I look at it.

I am a Jameka fan, but I am concerned about the weight. That said, if she gets out to double figures - I'm backing her Each way.

[Booney]

Doing my form now that the boss has gone home for the afternoon.

Race 1 - #1 with #10 the value.
Race 2 - #8 with #14 the value.
Race 3 - #3 with #2 the value.
Race 4 - #3 with #10 the value.
Race 5 - #10 with #15 the value.

Will get the rest done and posted this afternoon.

[Spargo]

I always take a rough trifecta & F4 in the cup
I've boxed no's 1, 5, 9, 11, 15, 17, 21, 23.

[JK]

Will study further tomorrow, but at this stage basing my exotics around:

Hartnell
Big Orange
Wicklow Brave
Almandin

Will add a few more in different combos, probably Bondi Beach and Secret City.

I'm sure leaving Jameka or Oceanographer out will come back to bite, but can't pick them all and like to get a bit of value in there.

[gadj1976]

Yep, top weight is well suited.
Thought Maher didn't want to be there & wasn't prepared to say anything about other runners - pointless panelist IMHO.
Gator must've lost plenty - 'Get On' should be on tonight, I think.
Hutchy has the better 'strike rate' - he tipped Almandin on Thursday. Glad I took the $17 yesterday, has shortened significantly today, Fixed Odds.

Am wondering how much rain will fall - heard differing reports.
Track drains well but anything Soft 7 or Heavy 8 (unlikely, I know) brings Our Ivanhow into calculations.
Still happy with my Roughie - the more I look at it.

I am a Jameka fan, but I am concerned about the weight. That said, if she gets out to double figures - I'm backing her Each way.

Rain? Hardly any.

I usually go to bom.gov.au and they are reporting a 60% chance of 3mm. Good 3 at best. Good 4 at worst. Unless Makybe Diva is running and they douse the track.

Jameka is a good horse but no Makybe and I wonder about the strength of the Caulfield Cup. In saying that the group 3 that Oceanographer ran in wasn't deep but the sectionals it ran rate more highly than Jameka and Almandin.

Gallante and Our Ivanhowe I've put a line through because they are wet trackers.

The 13 is a mystery to me. Can't really rate it but it could easily show up.

Others...1 3 4 6. Tri is around 3 4 20 to win... 1 3 4 12 20 to run 2nd and those plus 13 and 21 to run third.