11/11/2017 – Stakes Day Preview (Posted: 9:41pm Thursday 09/11/2017)
So, we come to the end of another Spring Carnival. I have to admit, I have had one hell-a-va ride this Spring & I am sceptical that it will continue for one more meeting, but I am happy to give a bit back in the pursuit of greater riches.
3 x Major Race Pick 4s is a fair effort, admittedly for small percentages but I’m not Kerry Packer! I will say this though - based on this Spring, I will not be focussing my Exotic Bets on Trifectas from now on. I will be going for the Pick 4s. Not based on my ‘lucky streak’ but more on the relatively poor dividends that Trifectas appear to be paying these days, even when the Pools seem large.
I had a thought about the reason why this appears to be the case, particularly with the Cup. I have drawn the conclusion that because of the amount of ‘mystery’ bets & Box 4, 5 or 6 bets that people have on the Race, it appears the amount of collects have increased significantly across the country. Look at the difference in dividends: Trifecta paid $2800+, with a $15 winner, the Pick 4 paid $55K+ with what I considered the best ‘locally trained’ runner running 4th!
As you know, I like looking at statistics, & stats tell us that the Trifecta Dividends on the Melbourne Cup have diminished considerably over the past 2 decades. Worth changing One’s strategy when considering the Exotic Bets, I think.
Anyway, to this Saturday, & despite the success so far – I don’t intend to get carried away increasing the Unit values or number. Perhaps that can be considered ‘weak’, but like I said earlier in the week, I think discipline is prudent when outlaying One’s ‘hard earned’.
Flemington –
MR 8 The Emirates (McKinnon) StakesStill annoyed that this race was moved from Derby Day, but I get the reasoning. That said, it appears to be the ‘consolation prize’ in terms of WFA Glory. One might argue that is next week at Sandown, but this is a more prestigious race than that one.
Some interesting form lines to wade through here. Obviously, the Cox Plate runners: 1, 3, 7; the Vase 3 yr old runner up & winner of the Norman Robinson, Cliff’s Edge, 4 that ran in the Cantala over a Mile, on Derby Day: 4, 5, 6, 12; Odeon won over 1800m on Tuesday, Harlem ran OK in the Lexus, It’s Somewhat started favourite & ran 3rd in the Crystal Mile on Cox Plate day & O’Brien’s runner ran poorly in a good form race, The Caulfield Stakes, which Gallo Chop won.
I think
The Taj Mahal will run well, but I think he is being set to peek for the race NEXT week. That said, I want to back him, currently $51 Boosted on Ladbrokes, but the
$8.20 the place is way overs IMHO. Happy to back him. Gallo Chop has done nothing wrong this campaign, but has he had enough? Tom Melbourne just doesn’t win, although I see they’ve changed the jockey & Walker might make a difference but as a WIN proposition you have to say no, don’t you?
I think the best horse is
Folkswood, but 4/1 is too skinny for me. The one I am afraid of is Gingernuts (the NZer). The Kiwi trainers haven’t done a lot so far this Spring (I consider Waller an Aussie trainer because he’s based here). Is this because the horses aren’t much chop? Perhaps, but I am wary of it, & the 3 yr old has to be given a chance with the weight advantage & the distance. Backing
The Taj Mahal 1 x 3 Units, with 6 Units win on
Gingernuts & 5 Units win on
Cliff’s Edge.
Pick 4: 7, 10 / 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 15 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, 15 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15 (for 5%) $28
(Is it a bit greedy to want another one?)
Flemington –
MR 7 The Darley ClassicThis is a terrific race & I think barriers will play an important part in the outcome. They will split & some will come down the outside. Based on today’s evidence, the inside was no disadvantage with the winner of the last (Hugh Bowman’s 1st winner of the Carnival) running on the inside rail. That said, I suspect the outside to be the ‘place to be’ by Race 7 on Saturday. The Hawkes camp will be desperate to win this race, having had the Grey scratched at the barrier, albeit somewhat controversially, before The Everest.
Malaguerra loves it here & has the outside gate. He’s 3rd up & the price is overs IMHO. I rate him a $10 chance & currently he’s $18 boosted & $4.20 the Place! So, I have to back him. I give big ‘shows’ to 1, 2, 3, 6 & 7. But at the price, I’ll take
Malaguerra 2 x 5 units.
Trifectas: 1, 6/ 1, 6/ Field; 1, 5/ 1, 5/ Field; 5, 6/ 5, 6/ Field
Flemington –
MR 6 The Matriarch StakesMares races are always difficult to access toward the end of Carnivals. I’ve found one here at a price, that might be an ‘up & comer’ for the Autumn.
Cedar Grande is in an astute stable & gets the services of a top jockey here in Dunn. I think she ‘maps’ well here just off the speed about 5th or 6th. I feel she’ll enjoy the Open spaces of the Flemington straight & provided she can get out & run on, I like her to cause a bit of a boil over at good odds.
She finished off her race at The Valley last start well & given time to ‘wind up’, she could be right in the finish. Happy to back her
1 x 4 Units, in a wide-open race.
Well, there it is Lads, previews for another year.
Thanks so much for ‘humouring me’ & allowing me to share my thoughts.
I am very thankful to have this forum to share & discuss my love of the Horses (& compulsive gambling
).
I hope I have provided you with some coin over the journey – I certainly have some.
Until Autumn… Cheers.