2018 AFL Ladder predictions

[Trader]

I probably missed the point given I belong to the group you labeled:

you daft bunch of ****

and

morons pissing into each other's pockets

but nevertheless, I have tried to understand your below post.

I would have said the last couple of years has little to do with this year because we've turned over 11 players in our squad, but that would be too simplistic. I think.

That's pretty much exactly the point.
Hey I said as much, originally, it was Benny that wanted to get into a statistical dick measuring contest, not me.
I could go on, maybe even run some numbers through a model to prove it, but no one cares and I know I'm right, so it doesn't really matter.

Are you saying that last seasons wins won't provide a reasonable indication of this season's wins?

I must have missed the point, cause I would suggest those two variables have a reasonably strong correlation, and I'd love to see your analysis on that.

[valleys07]

So where do you realistically have Carlton this year and how many wins?

Bottom 4
4-6 wins.

Lost arguably our best player to your mob(**** again) and haven’t gained much.

You're correct in saying that you have lost your best player, but it isn't to Adelaide.

[valleys07]

Sorry- I should have added, in my opinion

[mots02]

So where do you realistically have Carlton this year and how many wins?

Bottom 4
4-6 wins.

Lost arguably our best player to your mob(**** again) and haven’t gained much.

You're correct in saying that you have lost your best player, but it isn't to Adelaide.

You rate Denis Armfield higher than most then

[amber_fluid]

So where do you realistically have Carlton this year and how many wins?

Bottom 4
4-6 wins.

Lost arguably our best player to your mob(**** again) and haven’t gained much.

You're correct in saying that you have lost your best player, but it isn't to Adelaide.

Doherty?
You could be right but I rated Gibbs highly.
I think Crows supporters will see just how good he is.
A bit like Eddie and Sauce when they went to the Crows.

[amber_fluid]

So where do you realistically have Carlton this year and how many wins?

Bottom 4
4-6 wins.

Lost arguably our best player to your mob(**** again) and haven’t gained much.

You're correct in saying that you have lost your best player, but it isn't to Adelaide.

You rate Denis Armfield higher than most then

He had a good mo.........

[valleys07]

So where do you realistically have Carlton this year and how many wins?

Bottom 4
4-6 wins.

Lost arguably our best player to your mob(**** again) and haven’t gained much.

You're correct in saying that you have lost your best player, but it isn't to Adelaide.

Doherty?
You could be right but I rated Gibbs highly.
I think Crows supporters will see just how good he is.
A bit like Eddie and Sauce when they went to the Crows.

I rate Docherty higher than Gibbs, and reckon he would have flourished in the midfield this year, had he not done his ACL.

Gibbs will look good at the AFC, in part because of where their list is at.

Docherty wouldbe just as good, if not better than Gibbs at the AFC.

[amber_fluid]

That’s the problem at Carlton though.
Our good draft picks don’t develop as they should or would have if they were at a good club.
We just don’t have the quality senior players required to help develop them unfortunately.

[FlyingHigh]

Whilst I haven't put it in my ladder I've got a funny gut feel about the Bulldogs and Richmond and I've got nothing to back it up other than the feeling in my waters.

Dogs to rise up, Richmond to fall over....I don't think it will happen but it's a thought I keep having when looking at the year ahead.

The Demons are my smokey.

Melbourne are a joke, they play the big tough guys on field with Lewis, Viney and Vince all throwing their weight around and then they get the players association to tell the coaches as SAS course is too tough for their preseason. They're still the rabble they've been for decades.

Absolutely no excuses for them not to make the finals this year. I think they will, but if they don't show something they may become the new Richmond, ie always 9th

[carey]

GWS
Adelaide
Geelong
Port
Sydney
Dogs
Richmond
Essendon

Melbourne
Saints
Hawks
West Coast
Freo
Collingwood
Brisbane
North
Carlton
Gold Coast

[morell]

I probably missed the point given I belong to the group you labeled:

you daft bunch of ****

and

morons pissing into each other's pockets

but nevertheless, I have tried to understand your below post.

I would have said the last couple of years has little to do with this year because we've turned over 11 players in our squad, but that would be too simplistic. I think.

That's pretty much exactly the point.
Hey I said as much, originally, it was Benny that wanted to get into a statistical dick measuring contest, not me.
I could go on, maybe even run some numbers through a model to prove it, but no one cares and I know I'm right, so it doesn't really matter.

Are you saying that last seasons wins won't provide a reasonable indication of this season's wins?

I must have missed the point, cause I would suggest those two variables have a reasonably strong correlation, and I'd love to see your analysis on that.

Dude. C'mon man.

For the fourth time.

Yes, previous finals wins is a fair variable to use to predict future final win probability.

No, plucking out 2014 as the demarcation point when determining the dataset to use in that analysis is not reasonable.

If you're going to do it, do it for all teams, get the distribution, work out the appropriate amount of data required to make the results statistically significant.

[Bombers4EVA]

**** the data. Just get the ball and kick it between the two big sticks. The team that kicks more goals than the other team wins. End of story. Show me the data analysis for that.

[bennymacca]

**** the data. Just get the ball and kick it between the two big sticks. The team that kicks more goals than the other team wins. End of story. Show me the data analysis for that.

It’s actually kind of amazing how many people think this is how the game is still played.

[morell]

You always know someone has NFI when you hear

"Just kick it!!!"

Or

"Bloody sideways chippy rubbish"

[bennymacca]

You always know someone has NFI when you hear

"Just kick it!!!"

Or

"Bloody sideways chippy rubbish"

And most of them are crows supporters unfortunately!

To the same extent they pay their money the same as I do so I don’t really mind.

[The Bedge]

"Stop buggerising around with it with this handball crap, bloody boot it long"

Aww reminds me of my pop all over again

[mots02]

**** the data. Just get the ball and kick it between the two big sticks. The team that kicks more goals than the other team wins. End of story. Show me the data analysis for that.

It’s actually kind of amazing how many people think this is how the game is still played.

Its simplistic, but it kinda still is and always has been how the game is played.

Plenty of tactics, theory's , methods to get it done and i'm sure a whole bunch of funky stats to validate which method is most likely to get it done but at the end of the day its about who can "Just get the ball and kick it between the two big sticks".

[The Bedge]

at the end of the day its about who can "Just get the ball and kick it between the two big sticks".

but if it was as simple as that, everyone would do it

[mots02]

at the end of the day its about who can "Just get the ball and kick it between the two big sticks".

but if it was as simple as that, everyone would do it

Everyone is trying to do it... and as i said there's a whole bunch of methods and ways in which they can get it (or try to get it) done.

in the end, the team that does that the most efficiently is the only stat that really matters.

The main objective in the game has never changed. The methods have and certainly the analysis has.

Some people clearly get off as much on the analysis of the method and the stats to justify their opinion as much or more than they do the end result.

[Booney]

You always know someone has NFI when you hear
"Just kick it!!!"
Or
"Bloody sideways chippy rubbish"

In reality you have NFI either.