The South Australian Political Landscape

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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby bulldogproud » Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:51 pm

The big reason the Liberal Party lost the 2014 election was that they were totally outworked by the Labor Party in the marginal electorates. The Electoral Commission had already conducted a redistribution of electorates after the 2010 election that was supposed to even things up. Unfortunately, the Liberal Party concentrated too little on marginal seats for the 2014 election whilst Labor worked very hard in them.

A 'gerimander' can always be claimed to exist. It will always be possible for a party to gain over 50% of seats with as little as 26% of the 2PP vote (i.e. if they gain 50.1% in half the seats but zero in all others). This is where I much prefer a proportional representational system, and I believe Tasmania is a good example of how to do this for the Lower House.

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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Grenville » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:19 pm

It's like the South Park episode, Giant Douche or Turd Sandwich.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby jo172 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:37 pm

blueandwhite wrote:
jo172 wrote:
blueandwhite wrote:53% of the TPP and losing is not unusual in SA electoral history.
Playford engineered it so the city was represented by 11 seats and the rural areas were represented by 26 seats even though less than a third of the population lived in the country areas.......sounds fair. :roll:


And a Liberal Premier ended that system in the greatest example of political self-sacrifice since, well, ever.

The Constitution was amended to try and ensure that the Party which won 2PP would form government.

Just because it has happened in the past does not mean it's a good thing.


its not . But Playford got away with it for 38 years not 4.


In 16 years the SA ALP has won a majority of the 2PP vote once.

It's hard to make a case it's not systemic.

Other prediction, win or lose Weatherill will not make it to the 2022 election as leader. The right will knife him.

Win and 85% chance Marshall survives. Lose and he resigns
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby bennymacca » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:55 pm

You realise there is an independent commission tasked with drawing the boundaries right? And that they redrew them so that libs would win if it was exactly the same result as last time.

Like they have done the last few times, and libs still lost

The systemic thing is the state libs taking their constituency for granted
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby jo172 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:00 pm

bennymacca wrote:You realise there is an independent commission tasked with drawing the boundaries right? And that they redrew them so that libs would win if it was exactly the same result as last time.

Like they have done the last few times, and libs still lost

The systemic thing is the state libs taking their constituency for granted


The Electoral Boundaries Commission report into the 2014 election specifically acknowledged their failure in previous elections to fulfil their function.

This is why the 2016 re-draw we have now was so substantial relative to previous iterations.

The Labor Party sought judicial review before a 5 judge Full Court and got smashed.

It is a fact that the method the electoral boundaries commission had used prior to 2016 was incorrect. Read the Full Court judgment on point
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby blueandwhite » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:01 pm

If either of them lose they are history.
If Marshall loses he will have presided over 2 election losses- both he should have won ....beware of the wicked witch of the east...or the flying scotsman from the seaside..
If Weatherill loses you are correct - he could wake up with a dead horse in his bed; placed there by a Lithuanian maybe...it will be payback time for the way he speared Rann...

either way... There will be blood.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby jo172 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:07 pm

blueandwhite wrote:If either of them lose they are history.
If Marshall loses he will have presided over 2 election losses- both he should have won ....beware of the wicked witch of the east...or the flying scotsman from the seaside..
If Weatherill loses you are correct - he could wake up with a dead horse in his bed; placed there by a Lithuanian maybe...it will be payback time for the way he speared Rann...

either way... There will be blood.


Watching Mulligan, Malinauskas and Koutsiantonis fight will prove very interesting.

All of the same generation, all nominated by the right faction as future leaders.

Unfortunately the right faction's turn system doesn't extend to the leadership.

Re Libs not a hope in hell will Chapman lead. Next leader will be Knoll or van Polk Holst
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Grenville » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:29 pm

jo172 wrote:
blueandwhite wrote:If either of them lose they are history.
If Marshall loses he will have presided over 2 election losses- both he should have won ....beware of the wicked witch of the east...or the flying scotsman from the seaside..
If Weatherill loses you are correct - he could wake up with a dead horse in his bed; placed there by a Lithuanian maybe...it will be payback time for the way he speared Rann...

either way... There will be blood.


Watching Mulligan, Malinauskas and Koutsiantonis fight will prove very interesting.

All of the same generation, all nominated by the right faction as future leaders.

Unfortunately the right faction's turn system doesn't extend to the leadership.

Re Libs not a hope in hell will Chapman lead. Next leader will be Knoll or van Polk Holst


Malinauskas is a soda for next ALP leader.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby jo172 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:33 pm

Grenville wrote:
jo172 wrote:
blueandwhite wrote:If either of them lose they are history.
If Marshall loses he will have presided over 2 election losses- both he should have won ....beware of the wicked witch of the east...or the flying scotsman from the seaside..
If Weatherill loses you are correct - he could wake up with a dead horse in his bed; placed there by a Lithuanian maybe...it will be payback time for the way he speared Rann...

either way... There will be blood.


Watching Mulligan, Malinauskas and Koutsiantonis fight will prove very interesting.

All of the same generation, all nominated by the right faction as future leaders.

Unfortunately the right faction's turn system doesn't extend to the leadership.

Re Libs not a hope in hell will Chapman lead. Next leader will be Knoll or van Polk Holst


Malinauskas is a soda for next ALP leader.


Definite favourite.

The SA ALP Right has been a model of stability since state bank.

They however haven't had the power vacuum that would result if the ALP lose the election.

Mulligan did not enter parliament without designs on the leadership (albeit he's far from a sure thing tomorrow)
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Grenville » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:48 pm

Jimmy_041 wrote:I’ll be at Norwood Primary School handing out HTV cards if anyone wants to say hello (or spit at me)
Looking at you Gozu! 8)


Handing out ALP cards Jimmy?
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby morell » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:50 pm

Happy voting tomorrow everyone! Embrace the gift and privilege of democracy.

And remember....

#VoteGreens
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby jo172 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:52 pm

morell wrote:Happy voting tomorrow everyone! Embrace the gift and privilege of democracy.

And remember....

#VoteGreens


Indeed, the only thing worse than elections and voting is no elections and no voting
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Grenville » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:02 pm

jo172 wrote:
morell wrote:Happy voting tomorrow everyone! Embrace the gift and privilege of democracy.

And remember....

#VoteGreens


Indeed, the only thing worse than elections and voting is no elections and no voting


As I said to my eldest, if you choose not to vote or vote informal you have no right to complain about anything that happens afterwards.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby blueandwhite » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:04 pm

correct.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby DOC » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:09 pm

jo172 wrote:
blueandwhite wrote:53% of the TPP and losing is not unusual in SA electoral history.
Playford engineered it so the city was represented by 11 seats and the rural areas were represented by 26 seats even though less than a third of the population lived in the country areas.......sounds fair. :roll:


And a Liberal Premier ended that system in the greatest example of political self-sacrifice since, well, ever.

The Constitution was amended to try and ensure that the Party which won 2PP would form government.

Just because it has happened in the past does not mean it's a good thing.


What constitution would that be?
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby jo172 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:13 pm

DOC wrote:
jo172 wrote:
blueandwhite wrote:53% of the TPP and losing is not unusual in SA electoral history.
Playford engineered it so the city was represented by 11 seats and the rural areas were represented by 26 seats even though less than a third of the population lived in the country areas.......sounds fair. :roll:


And a Liberal Premier ended that system in the greatest example of political self-sacrifice since, well, ever.

The Constitution was amended to try and ensure that the Party which won 2PP would form government.

Just because it has happened in the past does not mean it's a good thing.


What constitution would that be?


The South Australian one: http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/sa/consol_act/ca1934188/

An ALP/Green/Advance SA coalition removed the provision as the final act of the parliament prior to the election.

I suspect the matter will come before the Full Court over the next 12 months and the repeal of the electoral fairness provision to be found ultra vires
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Jimmy_041 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:58 pm

am Bays wrote:
Jimmy_041 wrote:
Grenville wrote:Seems like a few political commentators have Libs winning with a majority. I can't see it but Marshall early on said he wouldn't deal with Xenophon to form government. Palaszczuk did similar in Qld with One Nation because she was confident enough of getting over the line with a majority. Maybe Marshall is in the same boat. At a punt, and this election truly is a punt, Labor 20, Liberal 19, Xenophon 5, Independents 3.


Labor 20, Liberal 23, Xenophon 2, Independents 2 (Bedford & Bell)
All the confidence of a Collingwood supporter going into a GF


You've got Brock losing Jimmy?

I'll say 19 Labor, Liberal 23 (Elder Colton and Possibly Mawson), SA best 2 (2 hills from the LIbs (Morialta and Heysen) or possibly I x Hills I x Mawson (Lee & Giles a possibility too)) Independants 3 (Bedford, Bell and Brock)

Newland will be interesting.

Results in the key seats will be dependent on the Margin between the primary vote winner and who comes 2nd especially if they are SA Best)

Still sticking with a hung parliament result.


Hoping more than anything. Not because he gave Weatherill the government (because I think he did the only thing he could) but because he should have used his position to stop them doing some of the $hite they did. Quite frankly, I have NFI how they will vote up there
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Jimmy_041 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:03 pm

blueandwhite wrote:53% of the TPP and losing is not unusual in SA electoral history.
Playford engineered it so the city was represented by 11 seats and the rural areas were represented by 26 seats even though less than a third of the population lived in the country areas.......sounds fair. :roll:


**** me, I didn’t realise there were 90 year olds on here
I wasn’t even old enough to vote in the Playford era
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Jimmy_041 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:07 pm

Grenville wrote:
Jimmy_041 wrote:
Grenville wrote:Seems like a few political commentators have Libs winning with a majority. I can't see it but Marshall early on said he wouldn't deal with Xenophon to form government. Palaszczuk did similar in Qld with One Nation because she was confident enough of getting over the line with a majority. Maybe Marshall is in the same boat. At a punt, and this election truly is a punt, Labor 20, Liberal 19, Xenophon 5, Independents 3.


Labor 20, Liberal 23, Xenophon 2, Independents 2 (Bedford & Bell)
All the confidence of a Collingwood supporter going into a GF


It's a lottery Jimmy, no-one really knows. Either way I have serious doubts either the current Liberal or Labor leader will see us through to the next election. A Wingard v Malinauskas war looms. All any of us want is a better outcome for the state, I don't know if either party are really offering that unfortunately.


Totally agree other than Wingard - #### me: Rann light!
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby jo172 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:07 pm

Jimmy_041 wrote:
blueandwhite wrote:53% of the TPP and losing is not unusual in SA electoral history.
Playford engineered it so the city was represented by 11 seats and the rural areas were represented by 26 seats even though less than a third of the population lived in the country areas.......sounds fair. :roll:


**** me, I didn’t realise there were 90 year olds on here
I wasn’t even old enough to vote in the Playford era

[url]
https://youtu.be/TwKgt3lbsG4[/url

JWH had a good line in there regarding those who use long ago historical unfairness as a justification for some kind of retribution style fairness
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