Preview Posted 9:45am Saturday 31/03/2018
Saturday 31/03/2018Good Morning fellow Punters… I am writing this week’s preview sitting in the glorious sunshine, under a dome shade, next to the 600m pole @ Oakbank Racecourse. It would be fair to say that I have had a ‘slow’ start to the Punt this Autumn & I could do with a ‘big’ day, here @ The Races!
As we all know by now, Winx is staying here in Australia, rather than going to Royal Ascot to take on the best in Europe. Personally, as a race fan, I am a little disappointed by this – but I understand the decision made by connections to try for an unprecedented 4th Cox Plate. That should be fun to watch in the Spring.
To more pressing matters. It’s fair to say that the Public Holiday yesterday allowed me greater time to do the Form this week & watch some replays & recorded TV shows from Sky & Racing.com.
Sydney Race 6 – The Tancred Stakes (former BMW)
I read a ‘tweet’ with interest during the week written by renowned Form Analyst & Professional Punter Dominic Berne. He stated that since this race has followed the Ranvet, 1 week later, no horse has run in the Ranvet & backed up & won this race. With such a small field, I am happy to listen to this advice & bet around it. As such, Almandin must be given a big show of winning the race but $2.90 is very short. As always, I’m looking for some better value & have settled on the Japanese runner, Ambitious. Not sure he’ll get the fast pace up front he needs to show his best, but his 4th in the Teno Show, carrying 1 kgs less, reads well for this. His run in the Australian Cup wasn’t too bad considering & @ the $3.60 the Place, I’m happy to have a small wager on him, 1 x 5 Units.
Backing: Ambitious 1 x 5 Units.
Sydney Race 7 – The Vinery Stud StakesThis race is a cracker! Best race on the card & the 5/1 the field is a reflection of the quality of the race. Personally, I think the favourite Unforgotten is a ‘false favourite’. The forgotten runner is the Top-weight, Aloisia – she’s quality & don’t be surprised if she goes well here, despite the wide gate. I have been a Hiyaam fan for 6 months now & her effort to ‘come again’ at the end of the race last week & run 2nd was a good effort. Can she back up? Most of the favoured runners are drawn out in the race. I think it’s important to look for proven distance types. Luvaluva has been scratched & I actually thought she could win the race. I’ve settled on No. 12 All Too Soon. Good Jockey, good Trainer. From the Gate, I expect her to go back. She’s a nice ‘run on’ type Filly & I think she’ll go well in the Australian Oaks in 2 weeks. She’s $15 for the Oaks & $16 today. With that in mind, I’m backing her to run well today – 1 x 4 Units, in a very open race.
Backing: All Too Soon 1 x 4 Units
Sydney Race 2 - The Neville Selwood StakesI’m a fan of the Godolphin runner Tally & I’m just backing him @ the price. He’s had 2 runs back & 3rd up, I think he can fire with Angland in the seat. I like this race as a Trifecta Race too.
Backing Tally: 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 6, 9, 11
Melbourne Race 8 – Victoria HandicapThis race ‘maps’ like it will be a fast run affair up front. As such I’m looking for a ‘run on’ horse to hit the line hard. I have listened to ‘Hutchy’ on Get On & he mentioned 2 x horses; So Si Bon & Violate. With the scratching, Violate gets a run & I’m backing him. He’ll be doing his best work in the last 150m & if he can get out, might just get up. Happy to back him 1 x 5 Units.
Backing: Violate 1 x 5 Units.
Oakbank Comment …
As always, Oakbank is a difficult proposition – it’s always prudent to look for runners that have run here, won here or are trained here.
Oakbank Race 8 – Oakbank StakesI will be backing 2 horses here; No. 1 Heart of a Lion & No. 9 Nipperkin.
Lloyd Kennewell is a great local trainer & Heart of a Lion has reasonable formlines, while Nipperkin is trained on track.
Backing: Heart of a Lion 2 x 4 Units & Nipperkin 1 x 3 Units
Oakbank Race 5 – The Great Eastern SteeplechaseDisappointing that only 5 runners will contest the race. Zed Em won the Von Dousa 2 weeks ago reasonably comfortably but he’s Odds On. I’ll be backing the Paddy Payne runner, Top-weight No Song No Supper @ 6/1.
Backing: No Song No Supper 5 Units Win
Oakbank Race 7 – Country CupI looked at this race for some time yesterday & settled on No. 4 Unrealistic @ the price. I think we’ll get better on the Tote, so prepared to wait but the Powered $9 with Sportsbet is OK. I like the $2.70 on Ubet the Place, so happy to load up here, 3 x 7 Units.
Backing: Unrealistic 3 x 7 Units.
Oakbank Quaddie: 1,2,6,9 / 1,3,4,7,11 / 1,5,9,10 / 2,6,11 (20%)
So, there it is Lads – another attempt at a small fortune
Until next week, Enjoy a great day on the punt.
If you are up here @ Oakbank, come & say Hi – I’m at the 600m Pole
Happy Punting…