Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby JK » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:08 pm

Had many of those shocking days (weeks, months), good on ya for backing up mate, it’ll turn. Always enjoy reading your insights
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby gadj1976 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:42 am

Hooray, Chataqua jumped successfully this morning!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby helicopterking » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:14 am

LPH wrote:22/09/2018 (Posted 7:45pm Thursday)

OMG… an absolute ‘Barry Crocker’ last week, proving once again, that as a Tipster I can get it horribly wrong at times. Seriously considered a ‘Roman Bath’ last Saturday night! :oops:

It is days like that, that seriously dent a Punter’s confidence & make him question whether or not it is wise to continue to pursue this past time! But, as always, there are more races this Saturday to peruse… And so it is to Caulfield & Rosehill that I venture this week – somewhat ‘gun shy’ it has to be said!

I’m thinking it could be a very successful day for Godolphin, particularly in Melbourne, but at both venues. The big fields have me concerned at Caulfield & the small fields in Sydney have ruined any decent win/place value priced runners – for these reasons I’ve only focussed on the 3 main races of the Day.

Caulfield Race 8 – Sir Rupert Clarke

Huge field to contest this very interesting race. Godolphin hold the keys to the race IMHO.

Osbourne Bulls ran really well fresh & his 2nd up record is superb. I think he’s likely to get a good ‘cart’ into the race & if Williams can get him in clear running, he’ll go very close to winning the race. $2.40 (Ubet) the Place is pretty good odds but we might get better on the day - $2.60 perhaps? The stable mate Home of the Brave is the likely leader in the race & should set a steady tempo up front.

I do like the Hawkes runner Showtime, at the value. Forgive his last run & go on the previous win here in the PJ Lawence Stakes, beating Hartnell. Gate 1 is a concern, in terms of being able to get clear passage around the turn, but recent history at Caulfield suggests the inside IS an advantage, so he’s worth a small gamble at $17 (Powered) & $4.40 the Place (Ubet)

Jungle Cat is a very interesting runner. Trainer has sent a number of horses out here early this year & we can take a lead from that, over the Spring. Godolphin are clearly VERY serious about winning our ‘Majors’ & dominating the Carnivals. 3 x Trainers (Cummings, Appleby & the ‘Shiek) will have an all-out assault over the next few months, & you can throw in Michael Freedman too!

Backing: Osbourne Bulls 16 Units the Place & Showtime 1 x 3 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 13 for (35%)

Caulfield Race 7 – The Bendigo Bank Cup (The Naturalism Stakes)

I’m pretty sure the winner of this race gets an exemption from the ballot for the Caulfield Cup. That suggests that a number of contenders for that race would be keen to win this. As a result, I would say the winner will come from Nos 1, 3, 5, 10 & 13.

Folkswood is 1st up but don’t be put off by that – he won the Cranbourne Cup over 2000m last time in. He has to go into all multiples. As you know, I am a big fan of the Mare, Hiyaam. She’s been good to me, winning at nice prices, & she owes me nothing. That said, her last run was poor but she was wide & The Valley is not a place you want to be caught wide at.

I have a sneaky suspicion that the Weir runner, Yogi, is going to win a good quality race this Spring. This may not be it, but I certainly concede it a place chance, at least. His form is good, he’s 3rd up & he drops weight here. The gate is the concern on Saturday, but watch out for him in something like an Underwood in 2 weeks or even a Lexus @ Flemington on Derby Day, at a price.

I have settled on Our Venice Beach at $8.50 (Powered) & $2.90 (Ubet). Love backing Lloyd Williams’ runners in anything above 1800m because you just know they will be fit & they generally like to run in the front 5 or 6 runners, so they make their own luck. He’ll do me at the price, would love 2/1 the place on the day!

Backing: Our Venice Beach 2 x 5 Units
Pick 4: 1, 5, 10 / 1, 5, 10 / 1, 3, 5, 10, 11, 13, 18 / Field (6%) – 3 Units

Rosehill Race 7 – The Golden Rose

Danawi is the obvious leader in the race. If he goes ‘gang-busters’ up front, it will set up the finish for those back in the field, in; Graf, Seabrook, The Autumn Sun & Lean Mean Machine.

Seabrook won the Champagne in the Autumn (1600m), after running a creditable 5th in the Golden Slipper, here at Rosehill. There are only 3 horses (Danawi, Seabrook & The Autumn Sun) that have won over 1350m. Is that a significant statistic? I think it is.

Can the Filly beat the Colts? If this was in Melbourne, I would say no question, as the Melbourne crop of fillies are better than the colts. In Sydney? At the price, I’m going to back her to do it.

I can see Santos hitting the front with a Furlong to go in the race, & Seabrook coming hard with The Autumn Sun down the outside. Seabrook at $11 Powered & $3 the Place is the value in the race.

Backing: Seabrook 2 x 7 Units
Quinella: 2, 6, 11 for 3 Units (cost 9 Units)
Exacta: 2 / 11 for 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11 for (50%)

There you go Lads – hoping that I get a couple of collects THIS week, if for no other reason than to rebuild a bit of confidence for the weeks to come. Not to mention the Bank!
Enjoy the Day.
I’m attending the SANFL Grand Final on Sunday – 1st one for 5 years. 8)
Looking forward to a big day on the piss with the Boy!
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Solid review.
The Sir Rupert Clark
By Race 8 you should know how the track is playing. If the track is playing fair or prone to backmarkers, I'm finding hard to go past Mr Sneaky. There is a lot of speed in this race, hopefully they ride him cold, I think he has the best turn of foot in the race. He came 2nd in this race last year(Santa Ana Lane won) drops 4.5kg from his last Moonee Valley run,(sat to close) and over this distance is 6: 1,2,1. The two times unplaced at this distance was in the Futurity against Brave Smash(3.8L) and 1.2L off Hartnell in the Orr Stakes.
At $20/1(Boosted to $26) , $6 place, its massively over the odds.
I'll be doing something with these 2,4,7,12,8,15.

Race 7-
Should be ran at a genuine speed, wi a few leaders drawn out wide. Once again, if track is fair, I think Yogi is over the odds. It will need a few scratchings but will be storming home late. Caulfield Cup will be its GF, but this horse is flying.
If it doesn't gain a start, I'll have a little nibble at Odeon @11s. Will get a cosy sit behind these leaders, drops 5kg from its last run in a Group 2(this is a group 3). Should be peaking at its 4th run in.
Nights Watch could be anything.
1,3,10, 16,18,

Sydney
I do like Seabrook, mainly because most of the genuine opposition had runs on a heavy track last start. It may have taken the edge off them just slightly.
Oliver sticks, good enough for me.

Good Luck boys.
Go West Coast
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:16 pm

Jason Whiting at regional meetings, gee he's won me some coin, was on fire yesterday again.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:19 pm

Lightning McQueen wrote:Jason Whiting at regional meetings, gee he's won me some coin, was on fire yesterday again.

I love the Fish
Matty Wade is a star and deserves more respect from the forum family!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:45 pm

Lost another 59 Units this week ... :oops:

To quote The Simpsons... "Aughhhhhh, I don't know what I'm doing"

That's 119 Units down in 2 weeks!

Oh Dear... :roll:
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:46 pm

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:
Lightning McQueen wrote:Jason Whiting at regional meetings, gee he's won me some coin, was on fire yesterday again.

I love the Fish

Yep, legend.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:46 pm

LPH wrote:Lost another 59 Units this week ... :oops:

To quote The Simpsons... "Aughhhhhh, I don't know what I'm doing"

That's 119 Units down in 2 weeks!

Oh Dear... :roll:


Time to get back on the horse.

Third time lucky.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:20 pm

28, 29 & 30/09/2018 (Posted 8:10pm Thursday 27/09/2018)

This is becoming rather embarrassing. I am not sure you would actually want to read (or worse, heed) anything I have to say about Horse Racing at this point! Not only has my pride & self-confidence been severely dented, but my wallet has copped a ‘pasting’ in the past 2 weeks. :oops:

Desperate times, call for desperate measures. So, I think it only fair that I preview all 3 Major Venues, this week. As I don’t really give a toss about the AFL Grand Final, there will be a good chance that I will be one of only a handful of people in the Unley UBET Agency this Saturday. I might even decide not to go & just punt from home, this week, certainly on Sunday at Caulfield.

Interestingly, I heard this morning on Radio TAB that we can get ‘better odds’ with them if we bet between certain hours. I believe that Friday (12 noon to 4pm) & both Saturday & Sunday (8am to 12pm) they offer ‘enhanced prices’ on win bets. With the ‘money back’ option still applicable on the 1st 6 races at the venues, might be worth holding off on outlays until then?

Anyway, FWIW, here is this week’s Preview…

Friday: The Valley – MR 7 – The Moir Stakes 1000m

This is a very interesting sprint race. I wonder if some of the ‘slot holders’ for The Everest may be ruing getting in too early for their chosen runners? There’s a couple of very good sprinters in this race that perhaps should be in the Sydney race. This is a hot field & a very open race if you look beyond the favourite, Nature Strip - the ‘spruk’ horse. TBF, it’s really hard to put a ‘knock’ on him with his record, particularly running a Track Record here last start. Is $2.20 the right price, though, considering the opposition in the race?

It’s pretty hard to ignore Ball Of Muscle’s current form & he absolutely loves the 5 furlongs, although he hasn’t won on this track – 2 starts for a 2nd. The fact that he likely leads the race from Gate 4, means he’s a genuine contender in the race & personally I think a top 5 Place is a given. $3.40 the Place at present is possibly just that, a ‘gift’.

Houtzen has a perfect 2nd up record (3 starts for 3 wins) & a good record here at The Valley (3:1-1-1). Add to that an excellent distance record as well & she might be the Win Bet in the race at $6.50.

Brave Smash had no luck in Sydney last start (I backed him, sadly) where he just couldn’t get out until very late. He’s still on the path to The Everest, so I think he’s a winning hope if they go crazy up front. The other Weir runner, Voodoo Lad, is another who could get up at a decent price & I give Faatinah a hope of a ‘boilover’ result, too. But you can’t back them all, can you?

I’ve settled on Ball Of Muscle at the price. I’m hoping he gets a ‘breather’ up front at some stage & can hold off the fast finishing Nature Strip & the backmarkers. $15 Powered is too juicy & as I said, the 7/2 the Place is almost a gift.

Backing: Ball Of Muscle 1 x 6 Units
Exacta: 3 / 6 for 3 Units
Trifecta: 2, 3, 8 / 2, 3, 6, 8 / Field for 30% (3 Units)

Saturday: Randwick – SR 7 – The Epsom Handicap 1600m

Over time, the Classic Randwick Mile races have been the domain of One, Gai Waterhouse. But I think it’s fair to suggest that the ‘baton’ has been well & truly passed on to Chris Waller in recent times. Gai has two runners in this race & Waller has 8 of the current 20, including the 1st & 2nd favourites!

This race is a Handicap. Only 3 runners have over 53kgs & top weight Hartnell is the only runner over 54kgs, with 57. How interesting that Hugh Bowman is engaged to ride him! He’s 3rd up, so should be ‘cherry ripe’ for this race. I am staggered at the price he opened at ($27) & unsurprisingly that was taken early – he’s now $17. Is he the same horse he was? Probably not, but that’s the best price he’s been in long time & is worth a small wager, particularly Powered at $22 & $5.

Looking beyond Hartnell, I am always loathed to back a Waller horse when he has so many in the field. Invariably I pick the wrong one!

Who leads the race? With such a big field, it’s always difficult to predict where horses will be in running. Tom Melbourne is drawn the ‘carpark’, I’d suggest he goes forward. Religify probably gets to the fence but might need to do some work as Pierata & D’Argento push up underneath. I can see ‘Tommy’ having to do a heap of work early to get outside the leader – pretty sure that’s why he’s the price he is. Hartnell should be forward of mid-field in a nice spot 1 or 2 off the fence. 2 or 3 back.

No. 19 Muraaqeb is a very interesting runner & I think a genuine ‘knock out’ chance. He drops a whopping 10 kgs from his last start win, has a good gate & is 2 from 3 at the Mile. He also has a good record at the track – I really like him to run well for the Hayes stable. It’s a big Class rise from a BM88 to an Epsom but he did run in the All Aged here against quality horses like Trapeze Artist & Le Romain as well as winning here over 1600m, both in the Autumn. He’s a genuine light weight chance in the race, IMHO (not that my opinion has meant much lately! :roll: )

I think D’Argento is a false favourite in this race, personally. If I was going to back one of the ‘shorties’ then it would be Unforgiven or Pierata, for mine. That said, I can’t take those sorts of prices, although $2.10 (UBET) Pierata the place, is a good sound bet – he’s a good horse in good form. I think we’ll get better than that on the day.

Backing: Pierata 7 Units the Place; Hartnell 1 x 3 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 7, 16, 17, 19 (35%) for 4 Units

Saturday: Randwick – SR 8 – The Metropolitan 2400m

Sin To Win is the leader in the race. I expect the Lloyd Williams horse Midterm to be up there as well, if last start was anything to go by, besides, these UK runners of Lloyd’s like to ‘bowl along’ in free running room, so I expect him to be on the fence sitting 2nd by the time they go around the turn, out of the straight, at Randwick.

I expect Big Duke to be running on solidly at the end of the race & there appears as though there might be some rain about in Sydney – so that will be to his advantage. I can see him coming down the outside at a rate of knots over the last furlong & a half. Currently at $13 Powered & $3.70 (UBET), I think he’s a great chance in the race. You know he’ll get the trip, a cut-up track won’t hurt him & he’s 4th Up. This isn’t his ‘Grand Final’ (like what I did there?) but I think Weir is happy to take the Group 1 status of the race & the good prize money, on his way to ‘bigger things’. I can see him running well in the Caulfield Cup (doing what Tawqeet did over a decade ago) after winning this race.

Backing: Big Duke 3 x 10 Units

Saturday: Randwick – SR 6 – The Flight Stakes 1600m

Is this group of 3 yr old Fillies better than those running in the Thousand Guineas Prelude at Caulfield on Sunday? I would have to say on previous years, Yes. So, this race gives us a look at the probable favoured runners for the Thousand Guineas in a couple of weeks. Miss Fabulass has taken all before her this time in & she’s a genuine star filly, but Even Money? Leave me out.

I’m going to gamble on the Maiden, Oohood, at the price. Her 4th in the Tea Rose wasn’t that bad. I know she’s been costly, having not won a race, but I’m happy to gamble on the $12 Powered & I’d prefer to take the $2.80 the place on her than take the Evens, on the fav.

Backing: Oohood 1 x 6 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9 (50%) for 3 Units

Sunday: Caulfield – MR 7 – The Underwood Stakes 1800m

I am a fan of Homesman as you know, having got him at $26 & $7.25 for the Caulfield Cup. As such, I am hopeful he’ll run really well in this race as a lead up. His run in the Feehan at The Valley over the Mile was great, just missing out on the win, beating a good one in Night’s Watch. This race might still be a bit short for him at 1800m, but don’t dismiss him whatever you do.

As I stated last week, Charlie Appleby & Godolphin are deadly serious about taking out our feature races this Spring – Jungle Cat’s win 1st up proved that last week. So, you have to think Blair House should be competitive in this race on Sunday – the price would suggest that Punters feel the same.

Humidor is the Class horse here IMHO. He’s 2nd only to the Greatest Mare (possibly Horse) we’ve ever seen, in terms of WFA quality. He beat Kings Will Dream here 2 starts ago, over the unsuitable 7 furlongs, & that horse is widely tipped as the Caulfield Cup likely winner. That alone has to suggest a bet in him is almost a given, with the extra 2 furlongs being suitable. He’ll get a great sight from the gate & with the rail expected to be back in the true (isn’t it?) he’ll need the same sort of luck he got in that race to get through along the fence & win. I love him as a horse but he’s again way too short for me.

Last year’s winner Bonneval is a silly price at $21 if you ask me. She’ll run well here again, particularly if the track is a bit soft after the expected rain in Melbourne over the weekend. She’s worth an early gamble at that price because I think she’ll be shorter on the day. $4.60 the place is nice little gamble ‘early doors’ too. I don’t think Comin’ Through will run a good 9 furlongs & I’m not sure Caulfield suits this horse either – more a Flemington type IMHO.

Backing: Bonneval (early) 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 (35%) for 4 Units

There you go Lads, perhaps avoid all those & you might do well over the weekend!
Enjoy the racing & the AFL Grand Final this weekend.
Let’s hope I can get something in the kitty!
Back on the Horse?
Just like the Cat in the Warner Bros Cartoon 'Gambling Bug'; "Deal the Cards, Deal the Cards, Deal the Cards!" 8)
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:49 pm

Love it!
Matty Wade is a star and deserves more respect from the forum family!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby heater31 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:05 pm

Chatuaqua is done.....failed to leave the gates again.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Brodlach » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:18 pm

Retired now
July 11th 2012....
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby JK » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:24 pm

Chatauqua :(
Viddora :D
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:09 pm

Lol Viddora.
The gear is back.
Matty Wade is a star and deserves more respect from the forum family!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:28 pm

Hartnell and Oohood surely made for a better day LPH :)
Right in front of me. RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby DOC » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:47 pm

Hope so. Great write ups.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Sun Sep 30, 2018 11:37 am

OnSong wrote:Hartnell and Oohood surely made for a better day LPH :)


Went to Morphettville for the Day...

Also backed Santa Anna Lane!
3 straight in Sydney plus $4.60 Place bet on a Weir runner @ Mornington - 4 bets 4 collects!!

Had a great day, but won't be claiming Santa Anna in the tipping collects - still down over the 3 weeks but at least I'm getting SOME back.

Got $13 & $3.10 Oohood
Got $22 & $6 Hartnel
Highlight: collecting the $6 with Livi-something, then going to the next 'stall' & collecting the win dividend off Barrington :lol:
Love taking Bookie's Money 8)
So happy for Oohood's owners & McEvoy
Reckon I got Hartnel's position in the race spot on too 8)
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:58 pm

Glad to hear. You were under the pump lol.

But due for some luck all the same.
Right in front of me. RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:48 pm

Wrapped that Belflyer has a start in the Kosciuszko. I reckon it goes ok and @ $34 it will give you a good sight.

Quaddie no’s at Caulfield today:
1,2,12,14
1,4,6,7,13
1,5,7,9
1,4,10,16

(Hoping Eawase runs a race at odds in the second leg)
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Sheik Yerbouti » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:10 pm

LPH wrote:Sunday: Caulfield – MR 7 – The Underwood Stakes 1800m

I am a fan of Homesman as you know, having got him at $26 & $7.25 for the Caulfield Cup. As such, I am hopeful he’ll run really well in this race as a lead up. His run in the Feehan at The Valley over the Mile was great, just missing out on the win, beating a good one in Night’s Watch. This race might still be a bit short for him at 1800m, but don’t dismiss him whatever you do.

As I stated last week, Charlie Appleby & Godolphin are deadly serious about taking out our feature races this Spring – Jungle Cat’s win 1st up proved that last week. So, you have to think Blair House should be competitive in this race on Sunday – the price would suggest that Punters feel the same.

Humidor is the Class horse here IMHO. He’s 2nd only to the Greatest Mare (possibly Horse) we’ve ever seen, in terms of WFA quality. He beat Kings Will Dream here 2 starts ago, over the unsuitable 7 furlongs, & that horse is widely tipped as the Caulfield Cup likely winner. That alone has to suggest a bet in him is almost a given, with the extra 2 furlongs being suitable. He’ll get a great sight from the gate & with the rail expected to be back in the true (isn’t it?) he’ll need the same sort of luck he got in that race to get through along the fence & win. I love him as a horse but he’s again way too short for me.

Last year’s winner Bonneval is a silly price at $21 if you ask me. She’ll run well here again, particularly if the track is a bit soft after the expected rain in Melbourne over the weekend. She’s worth an early gamble at that price because I think she’ll be shorter on the day. $4.60 the place is nice little gamble ‘early doors’ too. I don’t think Comin’ Through will run a good 9 furlongs & I’m not sure Caulfield suits this horse either – more a Flemington type IMHO.

Backing: Bonneval (early) 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 (35%) for 4 Units

)


$1347 Tri, pick 4??? 8.5k
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