Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:02 pm

Wtf!!!

Nice hit
Matty Wade is a star and deserves more respect from the forum family!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:38 pm

Phew... What a roller coaster this Punting Game is, eh?
The Underwood Trifecta paid $1786.40 on UBET - we get 35% of that, less the 4 Unit outlay.

As I said, I also got Santa Anna Lane yesterday, but he doesn't count in these calculations.
(But he has contributed in no small fashion to my improved well-being & 'bank') 8)

Managed a good weekend, despite a disappointing result on Friday night.
Outlay 60 Units, Return 133.5 Units = 73.5 profit 8)

In 3 weeks, still down 46.5 Units :(
Running Percentage: - 25.8% of outlay :(

So not exactly wallowing in my 'Happy Place' yet, but feeling a fair bit better than this time last week!
Hope you managed to get on at least one of these collects over the week end.
What Odds Homesman now for the Caulfield Cup?
Basically got a 'free' bet on him now with the $26 & $7.25 long gone 8)

Until Thursday Lads...
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:40 pm

Onwards & upwards @LPH
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:03 pm

06/10/2018 (Posted 12:05pm Thursday 04/10/2018)

Welcome to October. The racing is about to get serious – 3yr old classics in 2 States, Caulfield & Mooney Valley Carnivals & plenty of Country Cups. All leading into the 1st 2 weeks in November. Can Winx win her 4th Cox Plate? Will Goldophin dominate the ‘big Spring classics’? Can I claw my way back from the brink of ‘bankruptcy’? All these questions & more will be answered over the next 6 to 7 weeks.

On the later, last week was a good start. I worked out that had I taken a $5 All-Up on the 3 straight winners in Sydney (Santa Anna Lane into Oohood into Hartnell), I would’ve got over $7K back! :evil: This realisation put somewhat of a dampener on my enjoyment of backing those 3 winners, even an All-Up Place ticket would’ve returned 55/1!!! :oops: That said, I am really happy to have got Homesman in the Caulfield Cup at a better price the place than the current $7 the Win! 8) Anyway, enough of the ‘post-mortems’, there’s money to be won this week (fingers crossed). Being down 26% of Turnover is still a fair way behind, but we soldier on.

The better races are in Sydney again this week, as their Spring Carnival enters its culmination next week – as The Everest next Saturday. That race has taken on a whole new ‘complexion’ with scratching & form changes – but we’ll focus a bit more on that in 7 days, as we have plenty to think about for this coming Saturday’s meetings at Randwick & Flemington, respectively. Looks likely to be wet in Sydney.

Randwick – SR 7 The Spring Champion Stakes 2000m

I don’t know about you blokes, but I find these 3 yr old staying races pretty difficult to assess. This race is a set weights race, with the fillies getting 2 kgs relief from their male counterparts. I assume a number of these will continue onward toward the VRC Derby or Oaks in 4 weeks. That would suggest that they either have 1 more run (in Melbourne) or this race is their last before then.

The runners in this race, listed in the Derby are: Thinkin’ Big $7, Aramayo $13, Tarka $13, Mickey Blue Eyes $13, Deal Maker $13, Purple Sector $17, Visao $26, Cloak $51, Irukanji $51, Home Ground $101, with only the 3 horses not quoted; Maid of Heaven, Panzerfaust, Frankly Awesome. Of those 3, Frankly Awesome is well in the market of Saturday ($8.50) & she’s $17 in the VRC Oaks. Panzerfaust is $26 for the Oaks & Maid of Heaven not listed.

The Waterhouse runner, favourite Thinkin’ Big, is the leader in the race. He won 1st Up in the Gloaming, fighting on to hold off his rivals. Taraka ran home hard in that race to fail by 2 ½ lengths – he can turn the tables here & he has won in the wet. That said, racing pattern suggests he goes back & that makes it difficult to make up the ground in wet conditions. But disregard him at your peril.

With a view to who goes on to run well in the VRC Derby, I contend that Visao is the ‘value runner’ here. Maher knows how to train a stayer. The question is if he can handle the wet. I guess that’s why they call it gambling! A small bet on him as a ‘speculator’ at $26 Powered & $5.50. That said, it is probably also prudent to take the Derby price (perhaps for 30% of outlay for that race), 8) as he’s likely to significantly shorten from the $26. I expect him to run well on Saturday – will he deal with the wet?

They will find it hard to get past the leader here, but the price is too short for me.

Backing: Visao 1 x 3 Units
Exacta: 2 / 1 for 3 Units
Pick 4: 1, 2, 8 / 1, 2, 5, 8, 12 / Field / Field (3%) 4 Units

Randwick – SR 6 – The Roman Consul Stakes 1200m

Not much ‘Heavy’ Form to look at here – no winners & only Jonker has been placed (3rd).
Soft? 1, 2 & 4 have all won – with No. 4 Performer also with a 3rd.

So, these stats suggest not much help. Therefore I go looking for another ‘angle’. That angle is winning distance range. This race is over the 6 furlongs, so if we can find a runner that’s won over 7 furlongs, then we have a ‘contender’, in my view – but there are none!
As a result, no bet here for me.

Backing: Throw a dart at the field if you want!

Flemington – MR 5 – The Turnbull Stakes

She just wins, doesn’t she?
Just another benefit race for Winx.
Sit back & watch the awesome Mare tune up for The Cox Plate.

You have to hand it to the VRC – making this race not part of the Quaddie – Sydney would do well to follow suit in future, when a Champion, short priced runner is engaged. Interested to see how Youngstar runs left handed.

Flemington – MR 7 – The Bart Cummings 2500m

This race is the most interesting of the day. The winner is exempt from ballot for the Melbourne Cup. That suggests that this race is fast becoming the ‘locals’ best chance of getting a run in big race. Once again, Lloyd Williams plays a big hand in the likely outcome here, with 3 runners – all of which have a realistic chance of winning. Of the 3, I expect that both Harrison & Our Venice Beach push forward from the barrier & Midterm settles mid-field, 1 off the fence. Our Venice Beach let me down last start, but he gets the better of the 3 Jockeys IMHO, in Ben Melham, for this race. He can win.

Avilius is a serious Cups chance. His 3 runs here in Australia have been really good. He’s disposed of some handy rivals in I am Serious & Brimham Rocks, twice each & giving them weight. I think he’s more likely to win the Caulfield Cup, than the Melbourne Cup – there’s a question mark over his 2 Mile credentials IMHO. He can definitely win this race on Saturday, but at $2.20? I’m prepared to bet against him here.

Yogi was scratched from The Underwood 2 weeks ago, after I suggested he could well win a race like this one on Saturday. Is it too early? Probably, as I think the field here is too good for him. I think he’s more likely to run well in the Geelong Cup or Lexus (on Derby Day), or even the Sandown Cup. He’s too short for this particular race IMHO – should be double figures & $7.50 is not good enough. He does have the minimum weight here, so expect him to be running on from the tail of the field.

The Flemington ‘lover’ is Jaameh, having won his last 2 starts here & at this distance. He should also be running on at the end.

Rising Red is an interesting runner, having run really well in The Naturalism (traditional lead up to Caulfield Cup), the winner Night’s Watch would be challenging Avilius for favourite status here, wouldn’t he? At the price ($15 Powered & $3.50), this fellow might give a sight. He’s only ‘punished’ 0.5 of a kgs for the Naturalism run & he will likely sit in behind the leaders here, getting some protection from the ‘breeze’ along the back straight. The question mark is the extra 100m of this race, but I think he may well run a big race 3rd up.

The Brisbane Winter Carnival has become a good ‘pointer’ to the Spring, in recent years. His win over 2200m there, suggests he is an above average horse. If he runs in the 1st 3 here, then we can expect him to be a Cups runner 8) . Is he good enough to win one of the big Cups? Doubtful, but form plays a big part & he’s the right age (5 yr old) to go well, particularly with a light weight. As we know, the best horse rarely wins these Cups – it’s the best weighted horse that invariably does so. He’s currently $51 for both those races.

Vengeur Masque could be an improver but the gate is a worry – could get stuck out 3 wide out of the straight, so happy to risk but he could be a ‘knock out’ hope.

Backing: Rising Red 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 10 (35%) 4 Units

Flemington – R8 – The Edward Manifold 1600m

Another difficult 3 yr old race, this time for the fillies. One would think that most of these fillies are being aimed at The Crystal Mile or The Fillies Classic (both over 1600m) or the Vase (2040m) on Cox Plate day – then a number onto The Oaks (2500m) in Cup Week. With this in mind, we need to look at which Jockeys are ‘engaged’ & what distances they’ve been racing over.

As always, I’m looking for value. Hugh Bowman’s mount Oregon Dreamer ran over 1800m last start – sharply up in distance from her previous 2 starts this prep of 7 furlongs. To run 5th of 12 here suggests she’ll take good improvement from that run. She should get a nice run in behind the speed in this race & the drop back in distance might just suit her. Bowman engaged is a BIG plus.

Another one who looks like she’s on a trial to more ‘riches’ over the next few weeks is the Ciaron Maher trained Yulong Meteor. She’ll get back from that poor gate & I expect her to be ‘rattling’ home down the centre of the track over the last 300m. I can see her being a good chance in The Oaks, provided she ‘comes on’ over the next few weeks. $21 Powered & $4.80 is acceptable, but might get better on the day. Anything $5 or greater the place is good. I expect her to run top 6 here.

Interestingly the short priced favourite, Darren Weir’s Amphitrite, has only won a Maiden & a BM64 in her past 2 starts.
Is that good enough form to be less than 3/1? I think not!
I am happy to back something else to beat her. Weir also has the next 2 in the market – so DANGER backing her. I reckon Veery Eleegant is a better betting proposition than the fav, simply because she gets a ‘gun run’ on the inside, 2 or 3 back along the rail. Difficult betting race.

Backing: Yulong Meteor 1 x 5 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 6, 10, 11, 13 (35%) 4 Units

There you go Lads, not a great deal of outlay this week, just the 30 Units – reflected by the difficulty of the fields & the weather/track conditions in Sydney.Still should be a great day’s racing but happy to be more ‘daring’ next week for the ‘bumper day’ at Caulfield (as their Carnival begins) & The Everest in Sydney.
Enjoy!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:01 pm

I’ve been following Vengeur Masque for 3 Spring carnivals now. The last 2 years he’s been heartbreakingly 25th in the order of entry for the Melbourne Cup, missing out by 1 spot both times. I had him at $301 in 2016 & $751 last year... “sigh”
This year he’s 21st in order so no problems - snapped up the $121, he’s in to $61 now.
Mike Moroney who generally is very understated seems very “upbeat” about the 7 year old. They’d like to go via the Caulfield Cup but he’s 31st in order with only 18 getting a start (I took the $121 here also). They may have to go to the Mooney Valley Cup. It was his Caulfield Cup run 2 years ago when he came from last on the turn and flashed home for 7th that won me over.
As I posted last year, I got $31 when he won the Geelong Cup, agonisingly ran second by a breath in the Lexus (costing him a spot in the Melbourne Cup) then won like a good thing in the Queen Elizabeth. The horse owes me nothing.
He ran 4th when first up over 1700 then made up ground in the 2000m Naturalism, running 10th but only beaten 3 lengths. Very pleasing.
He goes up to the 2500 on Saturday in the Bart Cummings but as LPH said, he may get caught wide from that draw. I’ll only have a few shekels e/w on him but will be more interested in his run rather than the result.
(I also took the $1400 Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double ;) )
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:36 pm

Edward Manifold - 3 is out.
Replace with 15 for Box Trifecta.

Box Trifecta: 2, 6, 10, 11, 13, 15 (35%) 4 Units 8)
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mal » Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:51 pm

Port Mcquarie
Race1
Saturday 6/10/2018
Heres an interesting quinella
1 Jumper Leads
4 Charging Clear
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:56 pm

:( Yulong Meteor is out.

No Bet.
Remove Trifecta.

Change to Oregon Dreamer 1 x 5 Units
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mal » Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:08 pm

mal wrote:Port Mcquarie
Race1
Saturday 6/10/2018
Heres an interesting quinella
1 Jumper Leads
4 Charging Clear


Jumper leads wins
Charging Clear didnt start , was scratched :rolleyes:
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mal » Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:22 pm

Results Morphetville race 2
SP prices and finishing order
2...$1-45
5...$3-10
3...$12
6...$31

Trifecta and P4 dividends
UNI
TRI 2-80
P4 2-20

VIC
TRI 2-80
P4 2-00

NSW
TRI 2-70
P4 2-50

I got one of those combinations today
You guessed it ?
The Pick 4 on the Victorian TAB :butthead: :roll:

The trifectas all 3 TABS paid more than the P4s :rolleyes:
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:52 am

Ravaged by Scratching yesterday - still lost 20.5 Units :(

4 weeks - down 67 Units :(

Certainly not the start to the Spring One might want - but a long way to go
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Computer Crashed » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:21 pm

mal wrote:Port Mcquarie
Race1
Saturday 6/10/2018
Heres an interesting quinella
1 Jumper Leads
4 Charging Clear


My son called me from Bunnings, dad i left my lights on, can you come down and jump start me.
No son CBF, ask someone in the car park for help first.
Next race on SKY was this race, unbelievable.
Jumper Leads wins, true story.
He got help by the way.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:40 pm

13/10/2018 (Posted 21:40pm Thursday 11/10/2018)

At the outset I apologise for the length of the Preview, but there’s so many good races to assess.

Having only managed 1 winning week out of 5 so far this Spring, it is becoming increasingly obvious that I am somewhat flawed in my assessment of race horses! The losing percentage is significant, at this stage, but there are good week is still to come with some interesting racing ahead. Like most Gamblers, I keep coming back for more. This week is no different.

Before I go into the Previews of a terrific (if not difficult) Day’s Racing, it would be remiss not to make some comment about the ‘furore’ over the barrier draw for The Everest & the strange happenings in Sydney this week. At the risk of making a ‘political statement’, the Leftist, Tree Huggers complaining about the ‘Light Projections’ on the Opera House was amusing, if not weird.

Apart from the fact that the venue has had these types of projections on its ‘sails’ before (the Olympic Rings & Mardi Gras to name but two), the irony of the whole ‘saga’ is that the complex was built on the proceeds of gambling – ‘Tatts Lotto’ to be precise. How hilarious then, that the ‘Outrage Police’ would try to sabotage the event! But I digress…

What a ‘bumper day’ at Caulfield with Group & Listed races everywhere!

Caulfield – MR 10 – The Herbert Power 2400m

This is traditionally a very interesting race with many of these expecting to go on to bigger things in the coming weeks. Traditionally, we should not use this race a guide to the Caulfield Cup (next week), as there are few who repeat their form in THAT race. What we can look at is the Melbourne Cup.

With this in mind, Big Duke comes under notice. He was disappointing in Sydney, but there were excuses – bad ride (3 wide the trip) & he never got out to have a crack at them in the straight. I am prepared to go again on him. Rising Red was scratched from the Bart Cummings last week when I thought he could win, so I am wary of him here.

I ALWAYS respect any Godolphin runner & Prize Money will no doubt be ‘warming up’ late. One would expect him to go back from the draw & he hasn’t carried a weight this light since he was a 3yr old. I think he’ll be better suited to Flemington than Caulfield, but look for him running on at the end.

Backing: Big Duke 2 x 8 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 13 (35%) for 4 Units

Caulfield – MR 7 – Caulfield Guineas 1600m

This race is nicknamed ‘The Stallion Making Race’. How interesting then that No. 7 & 13 are Geldings (might need their names changed to Jesus Christ if they end up Stallions!) & Oohood, who is the lone Mare in the race. How short would she have been in the Thousand Guineas?

3 of the past 4 winners of this race have ‘backed up’ from The Golden Rose in Sydney, only last year’s winner did not. As a result of his run in that race, The Autumn Sun is the rightful favourite here & Waller says he’s one of the best he’s trained.

Pace & luck in running might play a part in the final ‘wash up’. The fav will be running on no doubt, but not sure the shorter straight of Caulfield will be to his advantage. No doubt he’s very good & will most likely go very close to winning the race but I can never take the Odds on, so looking elsewhere.

Of the leaders, Mick Price’s runner Tavisan might be a chance in the race at $21 Powered & $4.20 the Place. There is doubt over whether he’ll run the Mile, but he’ll be in it for a long way. Another of the ‘go forward’ horses, that will most likely run the trip, is the Weir runner Leonardo De Hinchi. He’s yet to miss a ‘place cheque’ from his 5 starts, including winning The Stutt Stakes at Mooney Valley, over the Mile last start. Before that run, he was just ‘nabbed’ at the post by Brutal – a horse with big wraps. The same outcome might happen here, with the fav charging home late. Therefore an Exacta bet might be prudent here.

I’ve settled on another here in Gem Song. He ran a good 2nd in The Dulcify 2 weeks ago over the Mile, beating Purple Sector. That horse ran really well last week & Gem Song drops 3.5 kgs from that run. Running left-handed here might cause him an issue (particularly around the turn upon straightening) so he’s a risk, but at the price of $16 Powered & $3.40 he’s the best value in the race IMHO.

Backing: Gem Song 1 x 4 Units
Exacta: 4 / 1 for 3 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 8, 15 (83%) for 2 Units

Caulfield – MR 6 – Thousand Guineas – 1600m

Having just beaten Fiesta in The Flight Stakes to break her ‘duck’, if Oohood was running here she’d be well in the market, if not favourite, wouldn’t she? As a result, hard to go past the Chris Waller runner. Good gate, good form, good jock – good enough for me!
$16 Powered & the $3.50 the Place is a ‘gift’.

Backing: Fiesta 1 x 5 Units

Caulfield – MR 7 – The Toorak Handicap – 1600m

Another Group 1 Mile race – this time for the older horses. Hartnell was great for me last start but he’s too short in price for this race & I actually think he’s better suited over further now he’s 8 yrs old – despite the win last start over a Mile in The Epsom.

Jungle Cat was fantastic last start here over the 7 furlongs but he’s never raced further than that distance & the betting drift suggests the ‘good judges’ are sceptical of his ability to win here – I’ll risk him too. Difficult race to assess speed wise as most of the leaders come from out wide. What is the result of that? Perhaps that means the speed will be on from the start, if so, the back markers will be suited – as will Hartnell because he will run the race out.

Of the leaders, I can see the best advantaged will be the Waterhouse runner Siege of Quebec. His 7th in The Epsom was pretty good considering the work he had to do early from gate 14. He gets a much easier time of it on Saturday, from gate 8, & provided he jumps well, I can see him 2 or 3 back, 1 out. That’s the perfect spot to attack from & at the $15 Powered & $3.80 is very acceptable.

I feel pretty confident (not that I have ANY right to be confident about any of my tipping recently), that he’ll run well & finish top 5. He might even get a nice trail behind Weir’s Cliff’s Edge or McEvoy’s Dollar for Dollar. Happy to back him at the price.

Backing: Siege of Quebec 1 x 5 Units

Caulfield – MR 8 – Caulfield Stakes – 2000m

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Lloyd Williams scratch Homesman from this race before the Cup, next week – I hope so anyway! That said, this is an ideal WFA warm-up for that race & also leading into The Cox Plate in 2 weeks. One would think a number of these are having a final ‘tune up’ ready to run 2nd to Winx at The Valley.

The Charlie Appleby runner, Godolphin’s, Blair House ran a great last 300m in The Underwood to run 4th. The gate might again cause him some issues here, but at the $15 Powered & $3.80, he’s very much a betting option here

Again, Darren Weir holds the key to the race with 3 high quality runners. Humidor is a really good chance of winning this race IMO. $9 Powered is very tempting but the $2.60 the Place is a real gift. He runs top 5 for sure here, doesn’t he?

WFA is his go & this distance too is perfect for him. Must go in all Exotics. He almost beat the Mare in last year’s ‘Plate’ & although I think she’s got a mortgage on the race again this year, he can beat her with the right run & a bit of luck – but we’ll discuss that in 2 weeks!

What does Benbati do from the gate? Do the Godolphin pair work together from the back?

Tosen Basil showed his true worth last start, narrowly beaten in The Underwood – what would’ve the Trifecta paid if he’d got up? Just like Humidor, WFA is his go too. This former Japanese runner is highly capable of winning a race like this. He’ll give a big show from the first 5 in the field & at the $15 Powered & $3.60, he might just have enough in hand to beat this lot.

This should be a fantastic contest & I think it’s the BEST race of the day :D – highly worthy of Group 1 status, with a very strong field of high quality gallopers engaged. Very open!

Backing: Tosen Basil 1 x 5 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 (if not scratched – add 8 if he is), 12 (35%) for 4 Units

Randwick – SR 7 – The Everest 1200m

I must state from the outset that I am not a fan of this particular event. $13 million in prizemoney is far too steep & doesn’t actually reflect the ‘quality’ of the field IMHO – at this point in its history, at least. :roll:

Whilst I understand the intent, I wonder about the ‘sense’ in scheduling such a race in direct competition to the Classics in Melbourne, on the same day. Anyway, enough politics – it’s another race to bet on. The openness of the field in trying to determine a winner is accurately reflected in the odds quoted for the race. 6/1 the field suggests its wide open & probably also reflects the fact that the track conditions could play a role in the likely outcome.

Last year’s winner Redzel is favourite & rightly so, despite a disappointing effort last start. At the time of writing (Thursday evening), the track is already a Heavy 8 & with more rain expected, both Thursday night & on the day, we can expect that the track condition is unlikely to improve – in fact, more likely to get worse! With this in mind, I’m focussing on proven ‘mudlarks’ & inside gates might actually be a disadvantage.

Jungle Edge loves the wet, having won 7 of 14 with 4 placings on a Heavy Track. For this reason alone, a small wager on him is not silly. He has shortened in price but still $61 Powered & the $11 the Place is very inviting – 1 x 3 Units is a decent bet 8) . He definitely goes in all Exotics too. Redzel also has a very good wet track record – having been placed 5 of 6, with 2 wins, Le Romain the same.

The Hayes Camp is very ‘bullish’ about Vega Magic. He will definitely go forward this year, unlike 2017. He’s a query in the Heavy, but has won 2 of 3 on Soft ground & I think the race will be run to suit the front runners.

Where does US Army Flag lob? He’s failed in his only start on Heavy ground but remember ‘UK Heavy’ is VERY Heavy ground (one could call it ‘slop’ rather than Heavy). He has placed 4 of 4 on ‘Soft’, winning 3. Discount this bloke at your peril, I say.

Aiden O’Brien doesn’t bring them out here for fun. He’s a genuine Northern Hemisphere Star this horse & I expect him to be handy in the run. Probably about midfield, with cover. $3 the Place is a little short (having not raced in Australia), but might just get better on the day. To back him the win I’d want minimum $12 (currently $10 Powered), but he should go well.

The mare Shoals has good wet track form (2 from 2 on Soft & 1 from 1 Heavy) & she’s quality - having won 3 x Group 1 races throughout her career. Is she up to this lot? I would suggest Yes, & she’ll be forward in the run too. She’s a bit short for me to back her at $8 Powered, but concede she’s well in the race with a Place chance. Others to have won on Heavy ground are; No. 2, 13 & 14.

I am a big fan of both Santa Anna Lane & Brave Smash but their racing patterns might play against them in the Heavy going. As One would expect, a very open race. Exotics might be the go here.

Backing: Jungle Edge 1 x 3 Units & Le Romain 2 x 6 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 15 (35%) 4 Units
Pick 4: 3, 5, 8 / 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 15 / 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 15 / Field (5%) for 4 Units

There you go Lads, sorry for the length of the Previews.
Really looking forward to the fantastic racing in Melbourne – the Carnival begins!
Let’s hope we can get a couple up.
Caulfield Cup Day next week…
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:37 am

Nice rundown LPH.

I don't follow much in Melbourne but I get on board the SA runners who head over there.

Being my home track, I study the form out of the Balaklava Cup meet and follow the horses from there.

Given the leader's bias that day, there has been some great form coming out of horses which didn't win on the day.

Tonight @ Cranbourne
R2) Mutheera started short at Balaklava from the McEvoy stable and was knocked off before going real close at Bendigo last start. Will jump around even money and rightly so, highly rated.

R7) Pretty Punk was finishing with a flourish in the Balaklava Cup (7th), and backed it up with second over 1800m in the Tokyo City Cup at Morphettville. Ben Allen gets the ride, don't think the 2000m will be an issue and is around the $4 mark.

Saturday @ Caulfield
R6) James McDonald and Smart Melody. They're flying.

Saturday @ Morphettville
R6) Live Fast, what a great name. Sadly, yet to perform for Gary Searle after arriving from Qld, but after a disappointing Coopers Sprint (1050m) on Balaklava Cup day, showed reasonable improvement in a 1200m BM86 at Morphettville going down by 2L. Kayla Crowther gets the ride, bit more weight - thus the $61 price - but if it can keep improving, it's in the race. Small speculative bet for me.

R7) I don't think you can go past Petrelle at $3, with Holy Blade, Carlingford and Lope De Capio as some value runners in exotics.

Saturday @ Royal Randwick
R7 Everest) I've been following Jungle Edge and Viddora for some 18 months now. That's where my money will be, along with Shoals (SA), Santa Ana Lane (love my lawn) and Redzel (tipped it here in this event last year).

Sunday @ Cranbourne
R10) Vinland was short on Balaklava Cup day for McEvoy stable, another beaten favourite, before crossing to win a midweek race at Flemington, while I've been an admirer of Wassergeist, which comes in as bottom weight and really can make up late ground over 1400m. Looks a good EW chance.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:13 am

OnSong wrote:
OnSong wrote:
helicopterking wrote:
OnSong wrote:Tony McEvoy targeting a winner in every race tomorrow at Balaklava. My god the runners he has brought up and his recent form at the track and it's not completely insane to think it could happen...


Huge chance.
Anyone going?

Yeah, I'll be out there with work. Grand final this weekend so can't really enjoy the day for the first time in eight years.

Will try to post my numbers later this morning.

R1
4,9,10
Backing 4 EW

R2
3,7,8,9
Backing 9 EW

R3
5,6,9,13,14
Short fave so liking 5 or 6 at EW odds, taking the 6

R4
2,3,4,5,9
Bit of buzz about the 8, don't know much about it so left it out. Backing 9 EW

R5
2,3,4,5,8,10
Put 5 in there as an omen bet, 4 is a place only chance IMO, backing 8 EW after impressive win at Gawler a few weeks back. It knocked off Waikato Express after coming from last, so watch R1, if WE gets up, Ambishop is a decent show.

R6
1,3,5,7,9
Could make a case for 2 but small field, can't have too many numbers in there. Vinland looks the quality but keep an eye on Datura (7), beaten fave here last start and was held up for a run in the straight, while including Aspalis (9) which knocked off Datura at $36 (had $20EW on it) coming from last, ridden for luck but hit the line with momentum.

R7 SPRINT
1,4,5,6,7
Gee, found the Sprint and the Cup the hardest to read. Love Manuel but will it have time to wind up? Backing Shopero (5), while thinking Usain Dane (7) can run a place at odds for some value.

R8 CUP
2,3,7,9,11,12
Had to include Miss Siska and Silvera from the McEvoy stable, the Cup rarely throws up a curveball so expect the winner to be under double figure odds. Modulate is firming, while Pretty Punk and Tatoosh are the main dangers. Can't decide between 7 or 9. Urrrghh 7 for the Kah factor.

R9
2,4,8,9,14
Backing 14 EW, horse is owned by some mates, hit the line well here when second a few weeks back, will appreciate some extra distance. Maybe. Ha!

They could be garbage numbers but hey, I've had a crack.
Will be working multiples around them. Good luck!


Just further from the track bias discussion, I've followed my selections since the Cup and where they've gone since.

R1) I tipped McAuliffe (4th), went on to run first and fourth in its next two starts.
R2) Tipped Horeyat Dubai (5th), went on to win its next start.
R3) Tipped Troublesome Lad and Ultimate Reality, finished 8th and 11th respectively. TL ran 4th in its next start at Flemington, UR has two seconds from its next two starts.
R4) Tipped Prickles (5th). Won its next two starts.
R5) Tipped Ambishop (10th). Ran fourth and first its next two starts.
R6) Tipped Datura (6th) & Aspalis (9th). D ran 5th next start, A has been spelled.
R7) Tipped Showpero (1st) and Usain Dane (4th). S was spelled since, UD ran third its next start.
R8) Tipped Silvera (4th). Ran second next start, while other numbers have gone Pretty Punk (second), Tatoosh (sixth), Miss Siska (sp), Chapel City (sixth) and Modulate (first) in their next efforts.
R9) Tipped Zazoe (8th). Spelled since. Other selected numbers 2 and 4 have been spelled since too, Sweet Mischief (5th) won its next start, Unscopeable (4th) has ran second and first since.

Interestingly, Balaklava lost its next meet due to trainers kicking up a stink about the track bias. Was meant to have one Wednesday just gone but Balaklava won't be used until November now.

So many runners I backed which performed poorly on Cup Day have gone on to run well.

Add on to that Ad Finem (7th in R9), which has gone second and first its next two starts, Real Easy (10th in R3) has gone 5th and first, you've got to wonder if there's genuine merit to the track bias claims, as opposed to just bad beat jockeys and trainers.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Computer Crashed » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:04 am

Heard someone from the stable of Dal Harraild on the radio yesterday.
Was very confident the horse is ready to run a big race in the Herbert Power and stated the horse is way over at 21s.
Time will tell.
I'm a getting on purely for the odds and the unknown ability.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Corona Man » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:32 am

All MR today.

Race 3, no 3 Meryl.

Race 7, no 5 Land of Plenty

Race 8, no 2 Humidor

Race 10, no 9 Rising Red
1961, 1971, 1976, 1978, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2015.... And don't you forget it!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Brodlach » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:37 am

Corona Man wrote:All MR today.

Race 3, no 3 Meryl.

Race 7, no 5 Land of Plenty

Race 8, no 2 Humidor

Race 10, no 9 Rising Red

Where you been misery guts?
July 11th 2012....
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Brodlach » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:39 am

Three of my favourites running today

Seabrook
Trapeze Artist
Snowbrook


Praying for a miracle all up
July 11th 2012....
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Booney » Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:14 pm

Victorem in the Kosciuszko.
PAFC. Forever.

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