Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Sheik Yerbouti » Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:50 pm

Courtza King it is, be a nice end to a pretty good day.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby daysofourlives » Sat Nov 03, 2018 11:23 pm

daysofourlives wrote:My Bets for the day, so stay away from these and your chances are increased
Batting today so should see most of the races.


R1-Zargos
R3-Bons Away
R4-Gaelic Chieftain
R5-Quin-Sunlight/Encryption
R6-Bring me Roses and Bella Martini Box Tri 1,5,8,11
R7-Visao
R8-Life Less Ordinary, Tri 4,9,11,16,17/1,4,9,11,15,16,17,18/1,2,3,4,9,12,13,16,17,18
R9-Divine Quality and Booker *Edit Tri, 1,4,7,11 boxed*
All up
Verry Elegant/Osborne Bulls/Sunlight/I Am Excited


Well we got bowled out after the 8th race today had to go back in the field didnt even think to check how i went in the last given id had bugger all all day, imagine my surprise at seeing such a healthy acc balance. Winner, 2nd and tri in the last, Didfnt think to put a quinella on with the two i backed, payed 217
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:56 am

I traditionally watch the Melbourne Cup preview that goes for an hour, but I cant see it in the tv guide??

Cant see it on any of the channels :oops:
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby daysofourlives » Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:07 am

anyone know why Morpetville isnt listed on sportsbet for Tuesday?
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:11 pm

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:I traditionally watch the Melbourne Cup preview that goes for an hour, but I cant see it in the tv guide??

Cant see it on any of the channels :oops:


Replay tonight:
Racing.com @ 8:30pm

Tomorrow Night:
Racing.com Get On 6pm
SkyRacing Central 7pm

Oh, & my Preview follows: :roll:
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:20 pm

Melbourne Cup Preview (Posted Sunday 16:40pm)

OK, last chance to get a big dividend & escape the Spring with SOME of my dignity still intact – I think my credibility has been destroyed somewhat. To do so in the most difficult of races, & with the biggest field in Racing, suggests that I am nothing, if not an optimist – either that or an idiot. Let’s go with the former, shall we?

I figure that mightytiger79 set the tone with is ‘Trip down Memory Lane’, so I implore a little indulgence here.
I’ve been doing this a long time & have only managed to ‘crack’ the Trifecta in 2009 & 2017 – both with Corey Brown on the winner.

I have backed some winners & place getters over the years though – my best was 1988 when I backed Na Botto $50 each way & got back over $1k, running 3rd! The 1st Cup I actually took any interest in was Gold n Black winning in ‘slop’ in 1977. Used to take my Blue K-Mart Transistor Radio to school to listen with an ‘ear-plug’ throughout the 80’s. The only Cup I’ve witnessed live was Let’s Elope’s dominant win in 1991 – my 21st Birthday present was The Melbourne Cup Cruise (on the Fairstar) – 16 hours sleep in 9 nights! They used to call it “Fairstar the Fun Ship”, it was certainly that! What was so funny about that particular Day was I only backed a single winner for the day (I backed Super Impose in the Cup, he ran 4th!!! – I’m good at 4ths), in Heavenly Saint in Brisbane. We always remember the winners, don’t we? Got polaxed that day, let me tell ya!

I think it’s a real shame we no longer have the ‘Cup Day Hurdle’ as the 1st race of the day, thanks to the ‘Outrage Brigade’. I love Jumps Racing & that used to be a real highlight IMHO & a great way to begin the fun.

OK enough reminiscing.

At this stage I am only focussing on the Cup, as its getting a little tiresome trawling through form & coming up with 4th placed runners all the time (Bella Martini hurt on Saturday @ $12 the place!). I will probably come up with a couple of others by Tuesday morning to keep interest in the ‘Support Card’.

So to the 2018 Melbourne Cup

I am applying the same ‘formula’ of elimination to come up with the 3 Horses I want in the 1st Leg of the Trifecta - that is; finding the Winner of the race. I have an adaptation of the ‘Practical Punting’ (The Optimist) method. I have adapted it because the race is an ‘International Race’ now & needs a slightly different approach. Still we (the Punters) have to deal with horses 1st Up in Australia, in the race. I maintain the VRC should change this & make these overseas horses run at least once before running in this race. It’s unfair on the Punter, & after all, it is the Punters who keep Racing viable with turnover. Rant over, for now.

Elimination Stage 1: Age
Rule out all runners 8 yrs old or over – remove 7, 12, 18
Statistically since 1955, only 5 winners have been 7 yr olds (Almandin (2016); Makybe Diva (2005); Rogan Josh (1999); Vintage Crop (1993); What a Nuisance (1985) – that’s 5 Winners from 62 ‘episodes’ of the race, 2 since Vintage Crop. Interestingly, the Overseas Trainers & Owners have obviously recognised these statistics – look at the number of 4, 5 & 6 yr olds in the race this year.
Rule out the 7 yr olds – remove 3, 14, 15
After Elimination Stage 1, down to 18 possible Winners.

Elimination Stage 2: Weight
This consideration is difficult this year because all bar 3 runners have 55.5 kgs or less, with the Caulfield Cup Winner only penalised 1 kg for that win, with 57.5 kgs here. Personally, I am not considering weight as a factor here because there is only 6.5 kgs between the 24 runners.

Elimination Stage 3: Distance
This is the MOST important consideration, I think. Remember we are looking for the Winner... 1. Won at 2400m+; 2. Placed 2400m+ in ANY of past 5 starts. The ONLY runner to have not meet criteria 1 is Youngstar (22), so I will need to go to criteria 2 to reduce the possibilities: Remove 8, 15

We are now down to 16 runners – 2/3rds of the Field!
1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24
How hard is this race to pick the winner?

Elimination Stage 4: Pre-Post Price (Sunday – Sportsbet)
The last 21 years have the following results:
7/2; 6/1; 5/1; 14/1; 9/1; 11/2; 7/1; 5/2; 45/10; 18/1; 17/1; 40/1; 9/1; 12/1; 8/1; 18/1; 7/1; 7/1; 100/1; 10/1; 15/1…
Less than 15% of Winners priced above $16 – 62% of Winners priced UNDER $11.
That leaves 11 Yucatan (4/1); 23 Cross Counter (8/1) - below $11, with 1, 2, 5, 9, 10 - $16 or less.

Now down to 7 Runners, still a long way from the desired 3 – last year this was enough Elimination Stages, but we will need more for this year’s Event.

Elimination Stage 5: Australian Jockey
Rule out any non-Australian Jockey – remove 1, 2, & 5
Corey Brown won his 2nd Cup last year, I’m going to remove him because Harry White was the last to Jockey to win the Cup back-to-back on DIFFERENT horses (Arwon 1978 & Hyperno 1979), the most recent back-to-back winner is Glen Boss when he rode 3 in row on Makybe Diva. Interestingly, there have only been 5 Jockeys do it – White did it twice, winning on Think Big in 1974 & 75.

Now down to 4 runners: Marmelo (9), Avilius (10), Yucatan (11), Cross Counter (23)
Technically, McDonald is a Kiwi & Scofield a Saffer, but they have been riding here for a long time, so I consider them Aussie Riders.

I have to take one out, so I remove Cross Counter due to the injury doubt.

So there’s the 3 for this year’s 1st Leg: 9, 10, 11 – 2 x 5 yr olds & a 6 yr old; Yucatan (5/1), Marmelo (15/1), Arvilius (12/1), the Fav, the 2017 Fav & a Godolphin Stayer trained here. Marmelo & Avilius are drawn together in the middle of the field & Yucatan the ‘Carpark’.

The more I look at it, the more I think Marmelo is a good chance of upsetting Yucatan. He was equal favourite for this race last year & ran 9th, after a 1st up 6th in the Caulfield Cup. The price is right for me & who among us wouldn’t love to see the Owner follow through on his

Looking at the probable ‘speedmap’, I see Rostopovich & Yucatan working across. Best Solution pushing up inside them, with Runaway, Chestnut Coat & Ace High all going forward as well. I think it will be a good, solid pace up front – I would be shocked if they repeated the ‘walking race’ of 2 years ago because I reckon the International Trainers felt that’s why they got all beat by Michelle Payne’s mount.

I expect McDonald will be happy to sit 2 or 3 wide on Yucatan, in ‘free galloping room’. I think Bowman gets a great spot 1 or 2 out & 4 or 5 back. Best Solution does what he does best & hugs the rail, ‘bowling along’ in front - he can win it, if he runs the 2 Mile.

It could wind up a true staying test, so I’m happy to have both Marmelo & Avilius as my ‘run on’ chances. That said, I am always respectful of Aiden O’Brien so I have had a small bet on CliffsofMoher & I am wary of the well weighted Youngstar & Cross Counter - although the injury it sustained recently is a worry.

Godolphin are here to win it. The Internationals have now worked out the ‘profile’ required to give themselves the best chance of winning; a 4,5 or 6 yr old weighted around 54.5 kgs that is NOT dower, but a stayer who can quicken from the 2 furlong mark. While Lloyd Williams must always be respected in the big Cups – having won 4 of the past 11 Cups, including the last 2!

I don’t expect to win on the race, having only cracked the Trifecta twice in 30 odd years, but FWIW:

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 6, 9, 10, 11, 22 (20%) $42 (4 Units)
Stand Out Trifecta: 9, 10, 11 / 1, 2, 6, 9, 10, 11, 17, 22, 23 / Field (25%) $132 (13 Units)

Box Pick 4: 1, 2, 3, 9, 10, 11, 22, 23 (3%) $50 (5 Units)
Stand Out Pick 4: 9, 10, 11 / 1, 2, 6, 9, 10, 11, 17, 22, 23 / Same as 2nd / Same as 2nd & 3rd (5%) $50 (5 Units)

There you go Lads, once again I’ve expelled way too much energy & effort on the hardest race in the Country to tip a winner – by no means do I believe I’ll come out in front, but hey, that’s not the point is it? :roll: Bullshit! It’s all about One’s wallet! Of which mine has taken a battering this Spring! :oops:

I hope that helps you a little in an even more difficult version of ‘The Great Race’ to analyse. If there are any Scratchings or late changes, I’ll update before the race. But that’s how I see it at this stage. As always enjoy the build-up & the Day. I have to work, but I do have access to the ONLY Television on Campus with an external Ariel… Hehehe
Last edited by LPH on Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:25 pm

LPH wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:I traditionally watch the Melbourne Cup preview that goes for an hour, but I cant see it in the tv guide??

Cant see it on any of the channels :oops:


Replay tonight:
Racing.com @ 8:30pm

Tomorrow Night:
Racing.com Get On 6pm
SkyRacing Central 7pm

Oh, & my Preview follows: :roll:
Thanks,

I don't have a great following of the Cup these days, but I always found myself tuning in

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:07 pm

The Spring doesnt finish on Tuesday, still Oaks and Emirates or whatever the last Saturday is called now.

As for credibility, LPH, you have more than enough to carry you through!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby gadj1976 » Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:40 pm

Boxed Tri and Pick 4 on the Melb Cup - 3 Magic Circle, 5 Muntahaa, 9 Marmelo, 10 Avilius, 11 Yucatan, 17 A Prince of Arran
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:18 pm

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:The Spring doesnt finish on Tuesday, still Oaks and Emirates or whatever the last Saturday is called now.

As for credibility, LPH, you have more than enough to carry you through!


Spot on.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:31 am

daysofourlives wrote:anyone know why Morpetville isnt listed on sportsbet for Tuesday?

No, but I'm getting f****** antsy!!!!!!!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:36 am

LPH wrote:Maybe we could organise a SAFooty 'show' out there next year?
Meet n Greet & all that?


Could all catch the train LOL.

I'm moving next month to about a kilometre away from the track.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:44 am

Lightning McQueen wrote:
Lightning McQueen wrote:
Spargo wrote:Best Raceday of the year IMO.
Good to see them going around in Brissy this week too, the last leg of the quaddie up there has 22 runners!


And I bet something as rough as guts gets up too, or #20.

Just had a look, I'll probably box up 14, 16, 17, 20 & 24

After all the scratchings I ended up boxing 9, 11, 14, 16 & 20.

I didn't place many bets for the day and ended up about square, I'll take that for a taster for Tuesday, got bloody close to a couple of decent tri's but no cigar.

I accidentally placed a bet for MR yesterday when it was meant to be VR, I didn't realise that it was for the Melbourne Cup as I got to watch the arse end of the race I thought I was barracking for.

I thought I'd better keep it for omen-sake.

1, 2, 5, 6, 9/4/ 1, 2, 5, 6, 9
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Corona Man » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:47 am

Cup day plans.

Sleep in.
Go for a 5 k run, followed by a swim.
Spot of shopping.
Lamb Rack on the Ziggy.
Arvo on the lounge watching the races and punting.
Beers, bottle of red.
Asleep by 7pm.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:55 am

The wife goes to work til around 11am then they all go to the races for free piss and food for the day. :(

I've taken the day off, will head to the track around 1ish, hopefully our horse runs and wins then f*** knows where I'll end up, I'll no doubt be in a ton of shit Wednesday morning if our boy gets up!
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby PatowalongaPirate » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:46 am

I was reading about a formula that has predicted 18 of the past 20 Melbourne Cup winners.

Here are the boxes a horse needs to tick to qualify for this wildly successful formula:

- It must have had a run in Australia prior to the race

- It must be the horse's first Melbourne Cup run OR it must have placed within three lengths of the winner at its last Cup appearance

- The last handicap race the horse run, it must have either won or got within two lengths of the winner

- If carrying more than 55 kilograms the horse must be proven at 3000 metres-plus

Of the last 20 Melbourne Cups, the only winners that did not achieve this criteria were: Viewed in 2008 and Rekindling last year. In both of those cases the horses that ran a close second (Bauer in 2008 and Johannes Vermeer in 2017) ticked all of the above boxes.

So the formula very nearly came up trumps in every one of the last 20 races.

For this year's race, six of the 24 horses will arrive at Flemington on Tuesday with a chance to win according to the formula. They are: Yucatan, Prince of Arran, Avilius, Finche, Rostropovich and Runaway.

Leave those half dozen out of calculations at your peril.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:37 pm

Prince of Arran, Avilius, Finche are the names I keep seeing under these formulas.

I liked Marmelo before reading them all, but happy to shift over to Avilius.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:53 pm

OnSong wrote:Prince of Arran, Avilius, Finche are the names I keep seeing under these formulas.

I liked Marmelo before reading them all, but happy to shift over to Avilius.

Avilius keeps flicking me on the pecker, I've been watching it all carnival, so I went Best Solution.

My old man used to back numbers 1 to 10 in a trifecta every Melbourne Cup, I can't recall him ever winning anything from it though.

As a token of keeping the spirit alive, I do the same each year since he has passed, I've never one won a cracker yet.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Sheik Yerbouti » Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:09 pm

Working so just have a stab.
Cliffsofmoher - Backed it both times in Oz, bludged in the Caulfield.
Magic Circle - Won past 2 1st up, like the freshies.

Quins Tris & a pick 4 around those 2 &
Yukatan - Night before Paper favorite, one of my Dad's & Pops systems (2nd anniversary of Dads passing tomorrow so...)
A Prince of Arran - Won within 7 days (another system) & did me a favour Saturday.

Please note - Haven't had a collect on the cup since Hyperno & Salamanda got me the quinella around 1902, strike a line through those 4 & it goes a long way to help you collect.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Brodlach » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:10 pm

Lightning McQueen wrote:
daysofourlives wrote:anyone know why Morpetville isnt listed on sportsbet for Tuesday?

No, but I'm getting f****** antsy!!!!!!!

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Prices up, I won’t spoil your excitement by posting it’s price
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