Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Corona Man » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:05 pm

Work show tomorrow night at Moonee Valley... wet over here, so looking for the mud larks. Any late mail lads?
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:07 pm

OnSong wrote:
OnSong wrote:Balaklava Wednesday - Good 4

R1) 2200m BM64 - Small field, so I'll comment on all runners.

3) Aali Mia - Made up excellent ground late when second up from a spell over the 2100m last week. A repeat performance in a smaller field will go close. 1st
2) Connemara Rose - Going back previous preps, seems to put in a beauty 4th up, which it is here, so think it will reverse the recent form. 2nd
1) Barshonti - Can see it pressing forward and should run top 3 in this field. Scr
4) Conquer The Moment - Think it has probably peaked looking at the way it faded last run after getting a box seat run. 4th
5) Casiraghi - Harking back to April, it ran a close up 0.4L 3rd behind Connemara Rose over this track and trip. Has not looked like winning since and back in the Grant Young stable in recent weeks. Would be a huge turnaround to run top 3. 3rd

R2) 1000m Maiden - Another small field

4) Factual - First up after 26 weeks, wasn't far away when last first up in a metro maiden. Won a trial going into this. Barrier 5 maybe the only knock. 4th
1) A Thousand Degrees - 900m not far enough, 1200m too far. This is its distance. Hoping it lobs third on the rail, on the speed. 2nd
5) Our Benevento - Another trial winner first up, with good previous maiden form, but at regional meets. Also does its best work late. 1st
1) Regina Margherita - Probably gets shuffled three back on the rail, outside place hope from there. 3rd

Wary of 2) Almandram, 14 starts with no placings but first up after 49 weeks from the respected Balfour stable. Will watch it go around.

R3) 1200m Maiden

7) Far Afield - First starter for McEvoy stable but coasted in a recent trial win. Think this trip suits. 3rd
2) Cover Girl - Has been there or thereabouts this prep, honest from wide barriers but gets 1 this week. Each way hope. 4th
6) Equichoi - Speed maps have it lobbing in the front few and has the best closing speed of the field. Only considering it because of J Maund. 1st
9) Lomachenko - 1200m seems to be its go, expect it to lead but may be labouring late to keep a few of these out. If bias is present, will be hard to catch. Died in the arse

Not keen but interested to see how 5) Zucchini goes, showing good improvement to finish third in a trial behind Factual and Black Hat. Still 2L away but on the improve.

R4) 1200m BM56

2) Fortify - Been consistent this prep for the Balfour stable, Logan goes on board to claim 3kg off the big weight. Looking for $5 for it. 3rd
3) Ogunde - Drawn to find the front and down in grade, if the on-speed runners are winning, the 10-year-old may well be fighting out the finish. Scr
4) Let's Tango - 50/50 for placing here at this distance. Don't rate the win at Clare last start but respect overall record. 2nd
1) Bwuva - Recent win was impressive but huge weight swing of 5.5kg probably makes things tough. 4th

Giving 6) Hinchin Miss a sneaky chance first up with the 3kg weight claim of Lo. 1st

R5) 1400m Maiden

1) Ethical Dilemma - Maps well here and longer straight, good barrier draw, should be in the finish. 4th
2) Hidden Agenda - Putting faith in the McEvoy stable. Not sure it showed much in trials but Pannell takes the ride. Expecting improvement. 3rd
3) Smart Alick - Got within 3L of Left Hand Man and Kenyan Wonder a few starts back before drawing the car park. Draws better in an easier grade. 2nd
5) Super - Honest fourth last start, if we're getting $20+ it's worth a small EW ticket. 1st

Watching 9) Kiss Me Charli, first starter from Stokes stable after two very average trials.

R6) 1400m Maiden - Yes, another one, and not completely sure how this will unfold.

2) Black Hat - First up after a spell, its two trials have been more than solid. Watch for form around Factual in R2. No good
5) Gourmelin - Change of jockey with Tourneur taking the ride. 3rd up now, fitter. Still not confident. No good
1) Brybek - Maybe it had more to give after turning last in recent 1200m run. 2nd
7) Indian Mo - Loves to lead and then fades more often than not. Got it here pending how the track plays. If leaders are winning, it's in with a show. 4th

I really want to like 8 Out Of Kilter for the Lloyd Kennewell stable. Probably needs this run but one to watch. 1st

R7) 1400m BM60

5) Light The Waves - Broke its maiden here earlier this year, two recent trials have been good against winning horses. Scr
1) Polar Vortex - Loved its run last start with Toeroek doing his best from tough gate. Will be closer in a small field. More weight the query. 2nd
4) Triple Spec - Good overall record but first up run leaves some question marks. 4th
7) Staghorn - Did ok to jag fourth from barrier 10 last start against some decent company. 3rd


Another almost day. Just one on top selection won, on top picks missed the kick in R3 & R4.
Nice work by Carey and MW with their insider tips, all of them landed.
Perhaps that's the ingredient I'm missing. Shocking under estimation of Super and Out of Kilter, and as it turned out, the form around Factual in R2 was really average.

Huge effort by Fortify, will be on it next start, while the run of Cobber's Mate was eye-catching without much luck to run 3rd.

Thanks for participating. See what we can find in the upcoming SA meets, with Morphy Friday, Gawler Saturday and Bordertown Cup on Sunday.

I believe a fair few of these runners will be worth following through summer!


Would've had a few pick 4's there mate.

I picked up a couple of sneaky late tri's yesterday, race 3 in Inceston killed me, Col's Hero, I used it as a rover when I should've had it to win, was never in doubt.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:37 pm

Corona Man wrote:Work show tomorrow night at Moonee Valley... wet over here, so looking for the mud larks. Any late mail lads?

Do with these what you will!

R1) 9 Tahlayla EW
R2) 8 Bold Arial
R3) 6 Double You Tee
R4) 4 Kissee Mee

R6) Pierrocity
R7) 7 Freehearted
R8) 7 Vitani
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Corona Man » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:41 pm

OnSong wrote:
Corona Man wrote:Work show tomorrow night at Moonee Valley... wet over here, so looking for the mud larks. Any late mail lads?

Do with these what you will!

R1) 9 Tahlayla EW
R2) 8 Bold Arial
R3) 6 Double You Tee
R4) 4 Kissee Mee

R6) Pierrocity
R7) 7 Freehearted
R8) 7 Vitani

Cheers, will do.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Bum Crack » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:45 pm

Corona Man wrote:
OnSong wrote:
Corona Man wrote:Work show tomorrow night at Moonee Valley... wet over here, so looking for the mud larks. Any late mail lads?

Do with these what you will!

R1) 9 Tahlayla EW
R2) 8 Bold Arial
R3) 6 Double You Tee
R4) 4 Kissee Mee

R6) Pierrocity
R7) 7 Freehearted
R8) 7 Vitani

Cheers, will do.

Hope you get a good bonus because you'll need it if you're going on his bets as of late. I picked a good day to get on him at Strath but he has been shite since then. :lol:
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Have you ever seen a man eat his own head?
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:45 pm

Corona Man wrote:
OnSong wrote:
Corona Man wrote:Work show tomorrow night at Moonee Valley... wet over here, so looking for the mud larks. Any late mail lads?

Do with these what you will!

R1) 9 Tahlayla EW
R2) 8 Bold Arial
R3) 6 Double You Tee
R4) 4 Kissee Mee

R6) Pierrocity
R7) 7 Freehearted
R8) 7 Vitani

Cheers, will do.


Go the high number on the heavy night track.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:47 pm

OutofWhack wrote:
Corona Man wrote:Work show tomorrow night at Moonee Valley... wet over here, so looking for the mud larks. Any late mail lads?

Do with these what you will!

R1) 9 Tahlayla EW
R2) 8 Bold Arial
R3) 6 Double You Tee
R4) 4 Kissee Mee

R6) Pierrocity
R7) 7 Freehearted
R8) 7 Vitani


Pressure is on.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:50 pm

Thursday quaddies:

Warnambool:
8,9,10
9,10,11,12,13
5,3,8,14
7,8,12,13

Coffs Harbour:
6,7,11
4,7,10,16
8,11,12
7,11,14
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:58 pm

Lightning McQueen wrote:
OutofWhack wrote:
Corona Man wrote:Work show tomorrow night at Moonee Valley... wet over here, so looking for the mud larks. Any late mail lads?

Do with these what you will!

R1) 9 Tahlayla EW
R2) 8 Bold Arial
R3) 6 Double You Tee
R4) 4 Kissee Mee

R6) Pierrocity
R7) 7 Freehearted
R8) 7 Vitani


Pressure is on.

Blind leading the blind. [-o<
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:08 pm

Lightning McQueen wrote:Would've had a few pick 4's there mate.

Yeah, still not good enough. Finding form and speed maps are about 30 per cent of the equation. Luck and insider knowledge the other major elements.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:34 pm

OnSong wrote:
Lightning McQueen wrote:Would've had a few pick 4's there mate.

Yeah, still not good enough. Finding form and speed maps are about 30 per cent of the equation. Luck and insider knowledge the other major elements.

Mate, you don't know how the horse woke up, how he was travelling to the track, so many elements, look at how many roughies get up, especially in late races at regional mid week meetings.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby S Demon » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:36 pm

Dutchy wrote:
S Demon wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
S Demon wrote:Not sure if you guys allow posting stuff after the fact, but it's too good not to share. A young lad at the footy club put a futures multi on which came in on the weekend:

WA Guineas - Arcadia Queen $3.40
Railway stakes - Galaxy star $3.40
Kingston Town steaks - Arcadia Queen $10
Winterbottom stakes - Voodoo Lad $12
Hong Kong Sprint - Mr Stunning $3.60

$10 bet, boosted odds to $5,670. He took home a lazy $56,700

He's not a big punter either, he got the tip from a FB page his brother follows. 2nd year apprentice. Pretty happy with himself - as you would be!


Have you seen the ticket?

Yes


What bookie?

Sportsbet
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:56 pm

Lightning McQueen wrote:
OnSong wrote:
Lightning McQueen wrote:Would've had a few pick 4's there mate.

Yeah, still not good enough. Finding form and speed maps are about 30 per cent of the equation. Luck and insider knowledge the other major elements.

Mate, you don't know how the horse woke up, how he was travelling to the track, so many elements, look at how many roughies get up, especially in late races at regional mid week meetings.

Well, I've got to find this shit out hahaha
I've been seeking advice through Ben Scadden and Adam McGrath on how to improve form analysis.
A third party at the track yesterday, told me through McGrath, that it's not easy, otherwise every man and his dog would do it.
I accept it's not easy, but you've got to start somewhere.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:19 pm

OnSong wrote:Well, I've got to find this shit out hahaha
I've been seeking advice through Ben Scadden and Adam McGrath on how to improve form analysis.
A third party at the track yesterday, told me through McGrath, that it's not easy, otherwise every man and his dog would do it.
I accept it's not easy, but you've got to start somewhere.

Tony Brassell is about the only one I listen to with any great interest.

There are too many variables otherwise and I like a punt for a bit of fun, my brother bets bigger and more serious than I do and he loses his shit when his bets fall through, I bet because I enjoy it, I like sneaky little tri's as I've cleaned up on them many times, at worst, I'll go to the pub, down ten pints and still walk out with $50 out of a ton, I only need to jag one in every four or five races to recoup my money and if one of my rough picks come in well I'm way out in front.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:34 pm

Lightning McQueen wrote:
OnSong wrote:Well, I've got to find this shit out hahaha
I've been seeking advice through Ben Scadden and Adam McGrath on how to improve form analysis.
A third party at the track yesterday, told me through McGrath, that it's not easy, otherwise every man and his dog would do it.
I accept it's not easy, but you've got to start somewhere.

Tony Brassell is about the only one I listen to with any great interest.

There are too many variables otherwise and I like a punt for a bit of fun, my brother bets bigger and more serious than I do and he loses his shit when his bets fall through, I bet because I enjoy it, I like sneaky little tri's as I've cleaned up on them many times, at worst, I'll go to the pub, down ten pints and still walk out with $50 out of a ton, I only need to jag one in every four or five races to recoup my money and if one of my rough picks come in well I'm way out in front.

10 pints? I wouldn't be able to walk out.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:54 pm

OnSong wrote:10 pints? I wouldn't be able to walk out.

LOL,over a 3 hour period, then a litre bottle of CC's from the drive thru for home along with a roadie can.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:03 pm

I wonder if Adam McGrath will get another invite to a xmas party this year following his efforts last year and his black eye..
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:05 pm

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:I wonder if Adam McGrath will get another invite to a xmas party this year following his efforts last year and his black eye..

Did you dot him?
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:06 pm

OnSong wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:I wonder if Adam McGrath will get another invite to a xmas party this year following his efforts last year and his black eye..

Did you dot him?
Nah not me.

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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:07 pm

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:
OnSong wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:I wonder if Adam McGrath will get another invite to a xmas party this year following his efforts last year and his black eye..

Did you dot him?
Nah not me.

Did he deserve it? :lol:
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