Dutchy wrote:Lightning McQueen wrote:Dutchy wrote:Lightning McQueen wrote:Sportsbet.
I just tried it out again with the Richmond vs Geelong match.
Geel/Geel 1-39/Geel (-10.5)/Under 163.5 (5.25), drop the H2H out and stays 5.25.
Wow, that is horrendously terrible value, no wonder Sportsbet promote these so much.
You think?
A night game at the G (wont be a high scoring game)
Geelong should win by about 4 or 5 goals, money for jam.
I wont argue with the betting guru though
Put them all in a multi outside the SGM and it spits out $7.80. This is where Sportsbet clean up on these gimmicks
A betting guru would realise you can't put them in the same multi outside of the SGM as they are dependent results.
IE: Geelong into Geelong 1-39 has already been discussed, but you then also have an issue where Geelong to cover the line (-10.5), and Geelong 1-39 is a partial dependent result.
You won't get $7.80 for that anywhere, and if you find somewhere that does, I suggest you load up as that's long term printing money.
Essentially the bet LM has posted is Geelong by 11-39 and the total points under 163.5.
Now, what's the 'correct' odds for Geelong by 11-39? Well that's easy enough to work out.
Geelong to cover the line (-10.5) is a 50:50 bet.
We also know Geelong 40+ is 18% (40+ will be paying roughly $5.50 on a 100% market & 1/5.5 = 0.18 or 18%).
So Geelong 11-39 is simply the 50% for them to win by more than 10pts, less 18% for them to go 40+ = 32% (or $3.15)
Under/over 163.5 is a 50:50 bet, so the fair price on that is $2.
Multi up the $3.15 and the $2 = $6.30
Now you could also argue there is a slight dependence on the game not going over 163.5, and therefore Geelong not blowing the margin out past 39 points. How dependent is that? Well, anyone's guess really, but you'd have to say there is some sort of link here. So $6.30 would need to be reduced back somewhat. Say 50c, so I'd say the 'fair' price is in the order of $5.80. Sure, that's still higher than the $5.25 offered by sportsbet, but no where near as silly as the $7.80 the 'guru' suggests it should be.