Port Adelaide 2019

[Brodlach]

Seb Ross cost me mine, had him for 25 disposals among 5 other legs which I had wrapped up by 3qtr time, only to see him fall short by 2 for a $508 return

Fasolo cost me big time yesterday but I got money back

Did you back him to get a possession?

Haha, to kick a goal

[Dutchy]

So you can back Port H2H at say $1.88 and then at 40+ at say $3.65 and it doesn't add any value?

Who with?

Sportsbet.

I just tried it out again with the Richmond vs Geelong match.

Geel/Geel 1-39/Geel (-10.5)/Under 163.5 (5.25), drop the H2H out and stays 5.25.

Wow, that is horrendously terrible value, no wonder Sportsbet promote these so much.

[Lightning McQueen]

Sportsbet.

I just tried it out again with the Richmond vs Geelong match.

Geel/Geel 1-39/Geel (-10.5)/Under 163.5 (5.25), drop the H2H out and stays 5.25.

Wow, that is horrendously terrible value, no wonder Sportsbet promote these so much.

You think?

A night game at the G (wont be a high scoring game)
Geelong should win by about 4 or 5 goals, money for jam.

I wont argue with the betting guru though

[Dutchy]

Sportsbet.

I just tried it out again with the Richmond vs Geelong match.

Geel/Geel 1-39/Geel (-10.5)/Under 163.5 (5.25), drop the H2H out and stays 5.25.

Wow, that is horrendously terrible value, no wonder Sportsbet promote these so much.

You think?

A night game at the G (wont be a high scoring game)
Geelong should win by about 4 or 5 goals, money for jam.

I wont argue with the betting guru though

Put them all in a multi outside the SGM and it spits out $7.80. This is where Sportsbet clean up on these gimmicks

[DOC]

Big difference, That said, Geelong are no certainties.

[Trader]

Sportsbet.

I just tried it out again with the Richmond vs Geelong match.

Geel/Geel 1-39/Geel (-10.5)/Under 163.5 (5.25), drop the H2H out and stays 5.25.

Wow, that is horrendously terrible value, no wonder Sportsbet promote these so much.

You think?

A night game at the G (wont be a high scoring game)
Geelong should win by about 4 or 5 goals, money for jam.

I wont argue with the betting guru though

Put them all in a multi outside the SGM and it spits out $7.80. This is where Sportsbet clean up on these gimmicks

A betting guru would realise you can't put them in the same multi outside of the SGM as they are dependent results.
IE: Geelong into Geelong 1-39 has already been discussed, but you then also have an issue where Geelong to cover the line (-10.5), and Geelong 1-39 is a partial dependent result.

You won't get $7.80 for that anywhere, and if you find somewhere that does, I suggest you load up as that's long term printing money.

Essentially the bet LM has posted is Geelong by 11-39 and the total points under 163.5.

Now, what's the 'correct' odds for Geelong by 11-39? Well that's easy enough to work out.
Geelong to cover the line (-10.5) is a 50:50 bet.
We also know Geelong 40+ is 18% (40+ will be paying roughly $5.50 on a 100% market & 1/5.5 = 0.18 or 18%).
So Geelong 11-39 is simply the 50% for them to win by more than 10pts, less 18% for them to go 40+ = 32% (or $3.15)

Under/over 163.5 is a 50:50 bet, so the fair price on that is $2.

Multi up the $3.15 and the $2 = $6.30

Now you could also argue there is a slight dependence on the game not going over 163.5, and therefore Geelong not blowing the margin out past 39 points. How dependent is that? Well, anyone's guess really, but you'd have to say there is some sort of link here. So $6.30 would need to be reduced back somewhat. Say 50c, so I'd say the 'fair' price is in the order of $5.80. Sure, that's still higher than the $5.25 offered by sportsbet, but no where near as silly as the $7.80 the 'guru' suggests it should be.

[Booney]

Gambling forum >

[Lightning McQueen]

Gambling forum >

There is one?

[Trader]

Gambling forum >

What? Discussion on the fair price of a same game multi between Richmond and Geelong doesn't belong in the Port Adelaide thread?

Given Dutchy is being labelled the 'guru' I would suggest this thread belongs in the fantasy section, not the Gambling forum.

[Booney]

Gambling forum >

A What? Discussion on the fair price of a same game multi between Richmond and Geelong doesn't belong in the Port Adelaide thread?

B Given Dutchy is being labelled the 'guru' I would suggest this thread belongs in the fantasy section, not the Gambling forum.

A Probably not.

B Your call.

[Lightning McQueen]

Gambling forum >

What? Discussion on the fair price of a same game multi between Richmond and Geelong doesn't belong in the Port Adelaide thread?

Given Dutchy is being labelled the 'guru' I would suggest this thread belongs in the fantasy section, not the Gambling forum.

To Dutchy's defence, I named him that after seeing his fine work with cricket bets.

[Dutchy]

A betting guru would realise you can't put them in the same multi outside of the SGM as they are dependent results.

I never said it did, but purely an example where Sportsbet are giving you massive under's in these bets, people that play them will just add another leg to get the price where they want it instead of chasing real value, again that what Sportsbet want.

[MW]

So Kane reckons Hinkley is the front runner for the Carlton job. Laughable.

[Booney]

So Kane reckons Hinkley is the front runner for the Carlton job. Laughable.

The only laughable thing is that's what you think he said.

Come on mate, you're better than that. That is so far from what Cornes has said it's not funny.

"We have said that Carlton will ask the question of Port Adelaide's coach Ken Hinkley," Cornes told SEN.

"I think we know what the answer will be, but I can tell you that Carlton will ask the question."

[MW]

So Kane reckons Hinkley is the front runner for the Carlton job. Laughable.

The only laughable thing is that's what you think he said.

Come on mate, you're better than that. That is so far from what Cornes has said it's not funny.

"We have said that Carlton will ask the question of Port Adelaide's coach Ken Hinkley," Cornes told SEN.

"I think we know what the answer will be, but I can tell you that Carlton will ask the question."

Thought I saw the headline saying exactly what I said... Should have posted the link when I had it
Either way it's laughable they would approach hinkley

[Brodlach]

This one?

“Carlton will go after Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley for the top job, says Kane Cornes”


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.spo ... a33a471gx0

[Booney]

This one?

“Carlton will go after Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley for the top job, says Kane Cornes”


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.spo ... a33a471gx0

So Kane reckons Hinkley is the front runner for the Carlton job. Laughable.

[MW]

This one?

“Carlton will go after Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley for the top job, says Kane Cornes”


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.spo ... a33a471gx0

So Kane reckons Hinkley is the front runner for the Carlton job. Laughable.

It's not the one I saw mate

[amber_fluid]

This one?

“Carlton will go after Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley for the top job, says Kane Cornes”


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.spo ... a33a471gx0

Kane is smoking some good shit!

[Brodlach]

This one?

“Carlton will go after Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley for the top job, says Kane Cornes”


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.spo ... a33a471gx0

Kane is smoking some good shit!

C’mon Amber you’d love your teams coach move to your other team