OAKSY Doggies Tips

[Oaksnaf]

BALLARAT RACE 6

4 SUPER BLU $2.67
1 OWEN MONEY $5.03
6 PANDORAS PROOF $7.66
7 ALEZAN $8.51
3 LEKTRA STOMP $11.68
2 WHY NOT MAXINE $17.80
8 SISCO BELLA $27.13

[Oaksnaf]

BALLARAT RACE 11

8 CARAMEL BLONDE $2.45
4 BLACK TESS $5.70
1 RINGCRAFT $8.69
7 MISS POCKET ACES $10.73
6 DESTINI CHEETAH $11.92
3 MILLIES ANGEL $13.25
5 BLISTERING BETTY $20.19

[Oaksnaf]

SHEP RACE 4

2 HES A NATURAL $2.38
6 VAMPIRE VIXEN $4.97
5 BURRAWONGA MISS $7.58
4 HOREYS PRINCE $11.56
1 SULTAN BALE $14.27
3 NIMBLE NALA $15.85
7 SUPASONIC SAZ $36.83

[Oaksnaf]

SHEP RACE 5

7 BIG BARRA $4.16
8 ALMENDRA $5.13
2 COMPSOGNATHUS $5.71
6 FEELING SEEDY $6.34
4 OUR CHINA PLATE $7.83
1 HARRYS ENTITY $14.73
3 LILY THE WEAPON $27.71

[Oaksnaf]

SHEP RACE 10

3 FLOPPY JOE $2.58
6 HURRICANE ROSE $5.99
2 POPPY YAALA $7.39
1 ALL IN YOUI $8.21
8 TAT SCOOBY $9.12
4 LEVYS BANJO $21.19
7 COCONUT GLORIA $32.30

[mighty_tiger_79]

Shep r11-8 lektra flirt debuts for us.

Is expected to lead, but whether her condition holds is another question.
$2.80 ubet.



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Led them easy.
Condition showed up in straight. Winner is a strong 450m type according to Tina.
Not a bad result 1st up.

[Groover]

Thursday @ Angle Park
Race 1 Box 1 Miss Takiri
Has the gun draw which is made even better with wide runners drawn directly outside her. She was the quickest heat winner and has the pace early to lead them throughout.
Expect odds around $2.20 for the win bet.

Race 2 box 8 Mister Kingswood
Still learning his craft and at this stage doesn’t come into winning calculations.
End of Trifecta and first four hope at best.


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[mighty_tiger_79]

2 in today at Geelong.
Hooing both can be in the top 3[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191022/35e37f49228b1d13f21879d6d1e48a1f.jpg[/img]

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[mighty_tiger_79]

2 in today at Geelong.
Hoping both can be in the top 3[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191022/35e37f49228b1d13f21879d6d1e48a1f.jpg[/img]

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[Oaksnaf]

HORSHAM RACE 5

4 POOR OLD FRANK $3.95
5 AMOR VINCIT $4.88
6 ASTON LAGONDA $6.69
2 FLYING JAMAICA $8.26
1 DREAM BOULEVARD $9.18
8 FOUND IN QUARTZ $11.34
3 GREAT SUCCESS $19.20
9 XERA BALE $44.60

Quite an interesting race this one, not many of these runners come from behind to win really, perhaps the 5 is the only one that does so. This is also a harder field for the 6 who has been racing well here of late, so no doubt Joe will come for the 6.

They all have good pace early, 2,3 will want to move left while 1 wants to push off,4 will run straight and 5 wants rails. 8,9 are slow out, 8 will muster up quickly though. This should mean the 4,5,6 get room either side early to move forward. At the bend 4 has to be clear of 5 as 5 will want the rails while 4 wants to race off. 6 is slow mid race and will have to go long way around this field. Runs out of steam out there.
If 4,5,6 are caught in a tangle, then it is 8 that will benefit most here.

I think it is quite tight at the front overall, 4,5,6 will be hard to find good value about.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Bear runs 2nd

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[Oaksnaf]

50 races into the new season campaign and the results look like this:

TOP RATING 20winners 40% S/R, Returning $55.87, POT 11.7%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB.
TOP RATING OVERLAYS 19 selections 6 winners, 31.5% S/R, Returning $26.20, POT 37.8%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB

Winner coming from top 4: 42/50 = 84% S/R
Total overlays: 164 for 13 winners 7.9% S/R Returning $173 on level stakes betting.

Looks to be around the mark for the top rating selection.
Issue has been the 2nd/3rd rating at the moment have been under performing and my handicapping for these runners is impacting the exotics.
For instance 2nd rater has only won 5 times returning $16.70 and has only finished 2nd 9 times. With 22 overlays for 1 winner returning $6.50......
So this is the area where I need to hone my skills, get a more accurate market after the top rater.

[mighty_tiger_79]

50 races into the new season campaign and the results look like this:

TOP RATING 20winners 40% S/R, Returning $55.87, POT 11.7%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB.
TOP RATING OVERLAYS 19 selections 6 winners, 31.5% S/R, Returning $26.20, POT 37.8%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB

Winner coming from top 4: 42/50 = 84% S/R
Total overlays: 164 for 13 winners 7.9% S/R Returning $173 on level stakes betting.

Looks to be around the mark for the top rating selection.
Issue has been the 2nd/3rd rating at the moment have been under performing and my handicapping for these runners is impacting the exotics.
For instance 2nd rater has only won 5 times returning $16.70 and has only finished 2nd 9 times. With 22 overlays for 1 winner returning $6.50......
So this is the area where I need to hone my skills, get a more accurate market after the top rater.

Top rater is doing well.
Do you run your form through a program before the market builder? Or just manual hard work?

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[Oaksnaf]

It is all manual hard work.
No computer science behind this at all. Just my brain.
I need a bit of work on my brain for the 2nd/3rd/4th ratings they are not performing when I can find the winner. So there is something I am fundamentally doing wrong. Hope can find the answer in the next 50/100 races.

[Oaksnaf]

The rules I adopt when deciding to bet on an overlay are simple as I don't have the necessary time to be following the markets extensively.

Scenario 1)
Early Market opens overlay. You spend half your expected overlay wager.
Closing Market closes overlay. You spend the remaining half of wager.

Scenario 2)
Early Market opens overlay. You spend half your wager.
Closing Market closes underlay. You don't buy the remaining half.

Scenario 3)
Early Market opens underlay. You don't bet any wager.
Closing Market closes overlay. You then bet your full wager.

I base all my markets on value off the TAB FIXED Odds market. If that runner is an overlay on that market early, then you go and chase the best price possible elsewhere. If the runner is an overlay in the closing market, you chase the best price possible.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Solid rules.
And betfair wouldn't be good for someone with your unit size!

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[Oaksnaf]

Haha. if you say so.

HORSHAM RACE 10

4 KRAKEN LIGHTNING $1.76
8 KRAKEN TEX $6.22
1 EAGLEHAWK MISS $11.71
7 NESSIE BALE $17.85
2 RAMPANT DOC $19.83
6 SUNSET NAVANA $22.03
3 STILL SINGLE $30.22

Difficult to find anything but the 4 winning here, 3 is steady out, vacant box outside, 6 does want the rails, but 4 should be in front by the time that happens.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Stormy a tad unsettled in the kennels....again....hates these late races at meetings

Hopefully he still good enough

[mighty_tiger_79]

Like a good boy he wins!
Did fear the worst.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Here ya go Oaksy[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191022/3b3004823516a24bb2966aca26099187.jpg[/img]

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