Oaksnaf wrote:50 races into the new season campaign and the results look like this:
TOP RATING 20winners 40% S/R, Returning $55.87, POT 11.7%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB.
TOP RATING OVERLAYS 19 selections 6 winners, 31.5% S/R, Returning $26.20, POT 37.8%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB
Winner coming from top 4: 42/50 = 84% S/R
Total overlays: 164 for 13 winners 7.9% S/R Returning $173 on level stakes betting.
Looks to be around the mark for the top rating selection.
Issue has been the 2nd/3rd rating at the moment have been under performing and my handicapping for these runners is impacting the exotics.
For instance 2nd rater has only won 5 times returning $16.70 and has only finished 2nd 9 times. With 22 overlays for 1 winner returning $6.50......
So this is the area where I need to hone my skills, get a more accurate market after the top rater.
We are now up to 100 races.
TOP RATING 38 winners 38% S/R Returning $102.25, POT 2.25% based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB.
TOP RATING OVERLAYS 38 selections 10 winners 26% S/R, Returning $42.75 POT 12.5%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB
Winner coming from top 4: 81/100 = 81% S/R
Total overlays (this is for all ranked animals) 323 for 28 winners 8.6% S/R Returning $388 on level stakes betting.
If you were to bet 100/odds = bet size on all overlays :
OUT $4,242
IN $4,705
2nd rater still terrible, only 10 wins, but has now come 2nd 20 times. Still needs massive improvement.
Basically last 50 races more or less similar to the first 50 except a drop in profit based on closing fixed odds.
With a 38% S/R on the top rater we have something to work with. But still a long way to go.
