OAKSY Doggies Tips

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 12

4 BELLAS GHOST $4.4
1 INTER JOE $5.5
8 TANKALICIOUS $6.1
5 CIRCUS OASIS $7.5
3 CEE JAY ACE $10.3
6 AIRLY WITH GRACE $11.5
10 ADO CARR $14.2
9 SURGICAL WALLY $24.0

4 gets gun draw and likes racing here, may find itself in lead at the bend.

[Oaksnaf]

I downgraded the 3 too hard due to class.
Ah well, one good race. 3 horrors.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Wally gave me a good run at odds.


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[mighty_tiger_79]

I downgraded the 3 too hard due to class.
Ah well, one good race. 3 horrors.

And i got lucky!

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[Oaksnaf]

I downgraded the 3 too hard due to class.
Ah well, one good race. 3 horrors.

And i got lucky!

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Incredible work to get that quinella !!

Awesome work, and huge divvies.

[Oaksnaf]

MONDAY

HVL RACE 11

2 EARLY SPECIAL $3.1
4 DOWN MEXICO WAY $5.3
1 LEKTRA ELSA $5.9
7 KNOCKA FELLER $7.3
3 SMALL ROSE $8.1
8 DON QUIXOTE $23.2
6 FARFALLA NERA $53.9

#1 jumps fair and will want to head out to the outside fence in a flash and crash into anything in its path. #2 can begin fast enough to jump in front perhaps, but if gets knocked, is also strong enough in last 50m on the rail to enjoy this trip. #4 is slow out and will enjoy all the clear room inside after 1 takes a few out.
#7 is improving back to old self, but still waiting for that early pace. #1 can run time and is strong even after crashing,.

[Oaksnaf]

MONDAY BALLARAT RACE 4

2 MISS MURINO $2.4
1 HURRICANE ARMO $5.5
7 SCUFFY $6.8
4 DUNDEE BLITZ $7.6
8 CLARETOWN TRIXIE $10.4
3 INGA ROSS $36.9

[Groover]

Anyone of u lot looking at investing into the national greyhound draft?
Apart from the Rhonda rocks pup I really like the look of the lots team RSN has. Couple that with training by the Langton/lanigan/Britton team and you have a really good chance for success.

I may be tempted at having a go for the $1200, just for interests sakes.

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[Oaksnaf]

Nah Groover, haven't owned/had a share in a runner for ages now. Prefer to just have it in the kitty.

BALLARAT RACE 7

2 PARTNERSHIP $2.4
5 MR MILFORD $5.6
4 STANS HOPE $7.0
7 NEW CROSS GATE $7.7
1 MILLY MAC $10.6
8 JANRAY LUCKY ONE $37.6
3 RIVERDALE TUOHY $87.4
6 MISS WINKS $148.0

[mighty_tiger_79]

Anyone of u lot looking at investing into the national greyhound draft?
Apart from the Rhonda rocks pup I really like the look of the lots team RSN has. Couple that with training by the Langton/lanigan/Britton team and you have a really good chance for success.

I may be tempted at having a go for the $1200, just for interests sakes.

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Im a fan of the concept, but not at the price. 2% in 3 dogs and get paid any prizemoney annually.

[Oaksnaf]

BALLARAT RACE 8

A well studied race. Maybe too well studied.

3 CHASING BEERS $3.6
5 MAINA HONEY $4.9
8 NUT AND BOLT $6.7
1 SPORTS GAIRN $7.5
6 PIPPA SQUEAK $14.1
2 GAME SPIRIT $15.6
7 STAVROS $17.4
4 ROGER THAT $23.8

#1 - races well here and can find some luck on the rails as begins steadily, a bit once paced around the 26.0 mark and can drift wide on the bend.
#2 Wants room inside and outside, early will try and get to the outside so can cut back in. Will find it tough.
#3 I have down as the leader here in a slow field. Will want the rails, slows up at the corner and will be strong in the finish.
#4 Wants the rails early, weak under pressure and will be fading late.
#5 Rails badly and can step sideways intothe 4. Luckily will get some room to do best early.
#6 Gets best chance to perform as inside draw goes raill and outside draw goes wide. Will improve today, but is flat mid race.
#7 jumps wide early and stays wide and cuts into the rails hard and needs luck. Will peak in run. LS perfect case and punters will come on that basis.
#8 Steady initially then musters up well, likes going outside runners, is class above these, but will peak on the run and can get stuck wide throughout.

Looks to be good value about this race as punters are coming for the 7 and having the 8 as favourite. We can find some value on the inside boxes here.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Shep r11 -4 lektra flirt.

Need to lead and probably have a Good chance to do so.

But $3.40 is a tad light.

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[moeee]

I don't know how to do the PM nonsesense here - Oaksnaf , did you get my PM ?

[Oaksnaf]

yep all received Thanks.

[Oaksnaf]

SHEP R10

6 WHERES JAMAL $2.6
8 KINGSLEY BOY $4.0
5 SCOTT PIZZAZZ $5.5
1 BOUND TWO AFFAIR $10.3
4 MY FERNANDO TIM $15.7
3 HARRYS ENTITY $44.9

[Oaksnaf]

SHEP R11

8 ASTON HAZARD $2.7
1 VALSTREPO $6.4
6 ONCE A KING $7.9
4 LEKTRA FLIRT $8.7
3 LEVYS BANJO $10.8
2 ALL INN YOUI $13.3
7 KRAKEN COURAGE $14.8

[Oaksnaf]

50 races into the new season campaign and the results look like this:

TOP RATING 20winners 40% S/R, Returning $55.87, POT 11.7%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB.
TOP RATING OVERLAYS 19 selections 6 winners, 31.5% S/R, Returning $26.20, POT 37.8%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB

Winner coming from top 4: 42/50 = 84% S/R
Total overlays: 164 for 13 winners 7.9% S/R Returning $173 on level stakes betting.

Looks to be around the mark for the top rating selection.
Issue has been the 2nd/3rd rating at the moment have been under performing and my handicapping for these runners is impacting the exotics.
For instance 2nd rater has only won 5 times returning $16.70 and has only finished 2nd 9 times. With 22 overlays for 1 winner returning $6.50......
So this is the area where I need to hone my skills, get a more accurate market after the top rater.

We are now up to 100 races.
TOP RATING 38 winners 38% S/R Returning $102.25, POT 2.25% based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB.
TOP RATING OVERLAYS 38 selections 10 winners 26% S/R, Returning $42.75 POT 12.5%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB

Winner coming from top 4: 81/100 = 81% S/R
Total overlays (this is for all ranked animals) 323 for 28 winners 8.6% S/R Returning $388 on level stakes betting.
If you were to bet 100/odds = bet size on all overlays :
OUT $4,242
IN $4,705

2nd rater still terrible, only 10 wins, but has now come 2nd 20 times. Still needs massive improvement.

Basically last 50 races more or less similar to the first 50 except a drop in profit based on closing fixed odds.

With a 38% S/R on the top rater we have something to work with. But still a long way to go.

We are now up to 150 races.
TOP RATING 53 winners 35% S/R Returning $149.60, POT -0.3% based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB.
TOP RATING OVERLAYS 62 selections 15 winners 24% S/R, Returning $68.95 POT 11.2%, based on closing FIXED ODDS TAB

Winner coming from top 4: 120/150 = 80% S/R
Total overlays (this is for all ranked animals) 468 for 39 winners 8.3% S/R Returning $473.45 on level stakes betting.

2nd rater improved in last 50 races.
Now 19 wins, but 3rd ranking has 37 and 4th has 11 wins and 5th has 17. So still got plenty of work to do in handicapping.

Top Rating
1st 53
2nd 28
3rd 25
106 placings / 150 71% finishes inside Top 3. and 40.5% in top 2.

Have to work harder on the handicapping.

[Oaksnaf]

TUESDAY

GEELONG RACE 6

1 SUVLA BAY $3.4
3 CRACKERJACK NATH $4.2
7 HEAD BANGER $5.2
2 WINLOCK NEWBOLT $12.0
5 RENITA BALE $13.3
4 GREAT SUCCESS $16.5
8 WINLOCK DYNO $31.0
6 DIEGO FERNANDO $47.2

[moeee]

You are way too concrete in your decisions.
If you got something at $20 , and the rest of us mere mortals have it at $4.80 , don't be such a damn narcissist , and shorten it somewhat.
You won't be backing it , but it will lengthen the Odds of the other runners somewhat , and perhaps reduce what may contain 4 Overlays , down to perhaps just 2.
Bookies don't have animals at short Odds for nothing - if they have them at the wrong Odds , they will get smashed on the other dogs.
Do your form and trust your studies , but don't ignore JOE completely.

I'll do a few races that you do tomorrow , if you play , and I will point out where you messed up.

[Oaksnaf]

You are way too concrete in your decisions.
If you got something at $20 , and the rest of us mere mortals have it at $4.80 , don't be such a damn narcissist , and shorten it somewhat.
You won't be backing it , but it will lengthen the Odds of the other runners somewhat , and perhaps reduce what may contain 4 Overlays , down to perhaps just 2.
Bookies don't have animals at short Odds for nothing - if they have them at the wrong Odds , they will get smashed on the other dogs.
Do your form and trust your studies , but don't ignore JOE completely.

I'll do a few races that you do tomorrow , if you play , and I will point out where you messed up.

Tomorrow I have Geel 6,9 + WGL 4,10,11. Nothing suitable Horsham.

I guess the arrogance still shines through a little for sure. My boss also yells at me for this (going too hard one way). But it's getting better.
My studying goes like this. 1) Video. 2) Paper. 3) Statistics 4) Joe. But basically when I look at Joe, the further apart I am, the happier I get. Perhaps it is the dopamine that is getting int he way. Noted comments, will take more respect from Joe (considering they have their handicapping in order and I don't for the races I've studied).

But you can see right through the numbers, top 2 ratings, anything closing over $10 on fixed 1 win from 26 and a huge loss on Kelly of course (need those market more accurate as you said).
The sample size from races needs to be much larger to give myself a real kick, but early trend is there.

Appreciate comments.