OAKSY Doggies Tips

[Oaksnaf]

Shep r11 -4 lektra flirt.

Need to lead and probably have a Good chance to do so.

But $3.40 is a tad light.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

Again fine form in VIc greys.
Must have been your money crunching it in late.
I overlooked its fitness as returned to winning weight and last start Bendigo was much improved to previous fading attempts.

Well done.

[Groover]

Busy week ahead

1 from our litter is in tomorrow
Gawler race 12 box 2
Silk Worm
Faded late resuming, but should be fitter for the run. Should be leading here and giving a good sight.

Thursday we have 4 in at Angle Park
Race 2 box 9 (reserve)
Mister Kingswood
Trial form has me somewhat positive about his prospects if he was to gain a start, but I’d only suggest a small place wager for now.

Race 3 box 8
Miss Bellawood
1st of the Brian Johnstone semi finals and Bella has some real solid form coming in. Main danger is obviously the 1, but I think we may be too strong in the end here. Win bet

Race 4 box 8
Miss Breakout
2nd up from a lengthy spell and looking to improve on what she did last week. Drawing the carpark is an obvious disadvantage as she looked to crash the rails early last week. Still is very strong and has proven herself to be versatile at the track and trip. Safe place bet here

Race 5 box 7
Miss Takiri
Returned to winning form after a hiccup 2 starts ago, has won 9 of her last 12 and really does a lot of things right. Once again drawn wide, but she has won from here before, can lead or come from behind. With an ounce of luck on T1 she should be right in the finish here. Each way bet.

All things going well we could have 3 in the final [emoji1696]



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[moeee]

TUESDAY

GEELONG RACE 6

2 WINLOCK NEWBOLT $12.0

8 WINLOCK DYNO $31.0

How can Winlock Dyno be such huge Odds over Winlock Newbolt when it accounted for it so easily last week ?
What you seem to be saying here is that it has zero chance of crossing safely.
I reckon it has a great chance of crossing , but even if it don't , the checks has been racing terribly the last few runs

[moeee]

TUESDAY

GEELONG RACE 6

1 SUVLA BAY $3.4
3 CRACKERJACK NATH $4.2
7 HEAD BANGER $5.2
2 WINLOCK NEWBOLT $12.0
5 RENITA BALE $13.3
4 GREAT SUCCESS $16.5
8 WINLOCK DYNO $31.0
6 DIEGO FERNANDO $47.2

1 SUVLA BAY $3.6
3 CRACKERJACK NATH $4.5
8 WINLOCK DYNO $10.4
7 HEAD BANGER $11
2 WINLOCK NEWBOLT $11.6
5 RENITA BALE $12.2
4 GREAT SUCCESS $12.8
6 DIEGO FERNANDO $15

I like to alter my Market until it looks right.
Do all the weights and balances with times , simply throws up some weird Markets.
the most important thing is to get them in finishing order , especially if you gonna wanna get some exotics happenning , and thats why I always adjust My Markets for looks.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Shep r11 -4 lektra flirt.

Need to lead and probably have a Good chance to do so.

But $3.40 is a tad light.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

Again fine form in VIc greys.
Must have been your money crunching it in late.
I overlooked its fitness as returned to winning weight and last start Bendigo was much improved to previous fading attempts.

Well done.

Back to the 390m is more suitable.
I only had a small interest bet on her.


Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[mighty_tiger_79]

You are way too concrete in your decisions.
If you got something at $20 , and the rest of us mere mortals have it at $4.80 , don't be such a damn narcissist , and shorten it somewhat.
You won't be backing it , but it will lengthen the Odds of the other runners somewhat , and perhaps reduce what may contain 4 Overlays , down to perhaps just 2.
Bookies don't have animals at short Odds for nothing - if they have them at the wrong Odds , they will get smashed on the other dogs.
Do your form and trust your studies , but don't ignore JOE completely.

I'll do a few races that you do tomorrow , if you play , and I will point out where you messed up.

Tomorrow I have Geel 6,9 + WGL 4,10,11. Nothing suitable Horsham.

I guess the arrogance still shines through a little for sure. My boss also yells at me for this (going too hard one way). But it's getting better.
My studying goes like this. 1) Video. 2) Paper. 3) Statistics 4) Joe. But basically when I look at Joe, the further apart I am, the happier I get. Perhaps it is the dopamine that is getting int he way. Noted comments, will take more respect from Joe (considering they have their handicapping in order and I don't for the races I've studied).

But you can see right through the numbers, top 2 ratings, anything closing over $10 on fixed 1 win from 26 and a huge loss on Kelly of course (need those market more accurate as you said).
The sample size from races needs to be much larger to give myself a real kick, but early trend is there.

Appreciate comments.

if you don't like a dog and think its a $20 why would you shorten it, So the others in the top 4 may drift out to a price where you may have to play them??
Thats just manipulating your markets to force a bet.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[mighty_tiger_79]

I'll try and have a look at thise 5 races

[Oaksnaf]

TUESDAY

GEELONG RACE 6

2 WINLOCK NEWBOLT $12.0

8 WINLOCK DYNO $31.0

How can Winlock Dyno be such huge Odds over Winlock Newbolt when it accounted for it so easily last week ?
What you seem to be saying here is that it has zero chance of crossing safely.
I reckon it has a great chance of crossing , but even if it don't , the checks has been racing terribly the last few runs

On my mapping, 2 is slow out and musters up fast and likes being closer to the rails. Builds momentum and doesn't want to be checked so needs some luck.
The 8 begins well and wants the rails. Gets checked easily and will be steady at the line. If you factor in JOE as you say, #2 was well backed against #8 LS and the #8 this time has a lot more pace underneath in 5,6,7 who can cause bother to letting it run to best ability. With the #1 Jumping well and #3 racing mid track, gives #2 a big hole early on to perform to best ability.

[moeee]

If you factor in JOE as you say, #2 was well backed against #8 LS and the #8 this time has a lot more pace underneath in 5,6,7 who can cause bother to letting it run to best ability. With the #1 Jumping well and #3 racing mid track, gives #2 a big hole early on to perform to best ability.

This is all good , and I also had similar views as you say , but then I noticed that the #2 had failed at its past 3 runs , with ZERO excuse.
The ODDS just looked plain wrong for a dog that plainly is running poorly recently.
I guess my dick is on the choppimg block yet again , but the good thing is , one of us will have to reconsider their study method , and can only benefit and possibly improve.
Having said that , neither of them will win , and I think the top 2 will run the Quinella , even though My Odds don't reflect that as a certainty.

[moeee]

if you don't like a dog and think its a $20 why would you shorten it, So the others in the top 4 may drift out to a price where you may have to play them??
Thats just manipulating your markets to force a bet.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

You shorten it ONLY if you are NOT the BEST HANDICAPPER on the Planet.
In fact by shortening it , you are manipulating the Market to eliminate a bet.
Of course if you do not handicap races and Frame markets , then don't concern yourself , just keep doing what you are doing and keep on winning.
I myself do all this stuff , yet keep Losing just the same.

[mighty_tiger_79]

TUESDAY

GEELONG RACE 6

1 SUVLA BAY $3.4
3 CRACKERJACK NATH $4.2
7 HEAD BANGER $5.2
2 WINLOCK NEWBOLT $12.0
5 RENITA BALE $13.3
4 GREAT SUCCESS $16.5
8 WINLOCK DYNO $31.0
6 DIEGO FERNANDO $47.2

1 SUVLA BAY $3.6
3 CRACKERJACK NATH $4.5
8 WINLOCK DYNO $10.4
7 HEAD BANGER $11
2 WINLOCK NEWBOLT $11.6
5 RENITA BALE $12.2
4 GREAT SUCCESS $12.8
6 DIEGO FERNANDO $15

I like to alter my Market until it looks right.
Do all the weights and balances with times , simply throws up some weird Markets.
the most important thing is to get them in finishing order , especially if you gonna wanna get some exotics happenning , and thats why I always adjust My Markets for looks.

I them odds about the 6

[mighty_tiger_79]

if you don't like a dog and think its a $20 why would you shorten it, So the others in the top 4 may drift out to a price where you may have to play them??
Thats just manipulating your markets to force a bet.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

You shorten it ONLY if you are NOT the BEST HANDICAPPER on the Planet.
In fact by shortening it , you are manipulating the Market to eliminate a bet.
Of course if you do not handicap races and Frame markets , then don't concern yourself , just keep doing what you are doing and keep on winning.
I myself do all this stuff , yet keep Losing just the same.

But you do need a sense of confidence/arrogance in your markets though.

[mighty_tiger_79]

if you don't like a dog and think its a $20 why would you shorten it, So the others in the top 4 may drift out to a price where you may have to play them??
Thats just manipulating your markets to force a bet.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

You shorten it ONLY if you are NOT the BEST HANDICAPPER on the Planet.
In fact by shortening it , you are manipulating the Market to eliminate a bet.
Of course if you do not handicap races and Frame markets , then don't concern yourself , just keep doing what you are doing and keep on winning.
I myself do all this stuff , yet keep Losing just the same.

Have you created a programme to download form and create market or still doing the manual way?

[mighty_tiger_79]

Silk Worm wins nicely, straight on the bunny

[Groover]

Silk Worm wins nicely, straight on the bunny

Yeah went very well! Blew out on the tote too!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[moeee]

Have you created a programme to download form and create market or still doing the manual way?

I have a program that creates a market , but has no error correction , not outlier eliminaters , but does give a Market although only based on average lifetime ( or past 40 starts ) race times.
I use it as a tool and a guide.
Manually tidy things up and do video watch ( sometimes)

[mighty_tiger_79]

Have you created a programme to download form and create market or still doing the manual way?

I have a program that creates a market , but has no error correction , not outlier eliminaters , but does give a Market although only based on average lifetime ( or past 40 starts ) race times.
I use it as a tool and a guide.
Manually tidy things up and do video watch ( sometimes)

Are you able to expand on that at all to allow for outliers etc? Or just have to use it as a guide?

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[Groover]

Friday night @ Sandown
Race 5 box 6
Mister Harlewood
With 8 strong heats we have done well here to dodge most of the big guns. The draw is good for him with the 4&5 wanting a rails run. If he can step clean he could get into a nice position and hopefully run a good race.
Crossing fingers he can win through to the final!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[moeee]

Are you able to expand on that at all to allow for outliers etc? Or just have to use it as a guide?

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

I manually do what needs to be done.I enjoy it.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Im gonna box up 1367 here in r6

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk