Coronavirus (Covid19)

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby bulldogproud » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:36 pm

Q. wrote:
Booney wrote:
Q. wrote:USA is going to be catastrophic. Straight line on a logarithmic x-axis is exponential growth :shock:

Image


F*cking hell.

I know our trajectory is similar, but I'm wondering how population density is taken into account with these predictions.


No adjustment for popn density, but with Singapore ranked #2 globally for density it makes you realise how good their response has been. I suspect Australia's lack of popn density is working in our favour.

Hopefully we can South Korea the shit out of COVID-19 :D


At current rates, unlikely but possible. There are still more steps we should be taking. Key though is having people start to realise how serious it is. Pubs and cafes were chockas last night apparently. Thank God that can't happen anymore. I hope we do get to the South Korea rate though, our lives depend on it!
Last edited by bulldogproud on Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Jase » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:37 pm

amber_fluid wrote:
Jase wrote:
Pag wrote:
amber_fluid wrote:My kids school has 45% non attendance rate today.
I knew it would be high but that’s massive.
May be time to shut school then.

We're at approx 650 absent from a school of 1450 today.


We were approx 210 out of 1100 absent today


What area is the school?
I’m inner south/west.

Pag is north?

I’m interested to see why your school is only around 20%


My school is actually about 3Km's away from Pag's as the crow flies...

In the North/North Eastern suburbs...

Each day the number of Self-isolating students increases so no doubt we will be up to 40-45% by the end of the week, provided schools are still open then...
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Bum Crack » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:37 pm

am Bays wrote:
bulldogproud wrote:
am Bays wrote:our rate of infections is still below Singapore (0.004 v 0.007%) of the population

Our death rate is exceptional under 1% compared to the rest of the world (292000 cases 12 700 deaths - ~4%). https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200322-sitrep-62-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=f7764c46_2 WHO situational data reports

As someone who works in health I think the governments of all persuasions across Australia are doing a good job treading the fine line between flattening the curve and allowing people to go about our normal every day lives.

it's the d!ckheads out there making it problematic not the governments

The reality is this will effect les than who we think will get the virus and for the vast majority the effects will be mild to moderate.

The problem we have as a nation is that even with 1% Morbidity of a 20% population infection rate we don't have enough health resources to go around.

Bottom line: follow official advice, practice social distancing and good hand hygiene


If you work in health, I am very scared because you sure can't read graphs. Look up above to the one Booney posted, the same one I did that you criticised me for, saying it was fake. You read the graph the following way: the x-axis is the number of days since each country had their 100th case; the y-axis is the total number of cases.
Now, can you see that Australia has over 1500 cases after 12 days whilst Singapore is less than 500 after 22 days?? Can you also see by the slope that Australia is following a very similar trajectory to that of European countries and the US?? These are very worrying signs for Australia. The only reason our infection and death rates WERE lower is that Covid-19 hit our shores later. Sadly, we will go wayyyyyyyyyyy past the Singapore rates.

To follow Singapore, we need to do what they do: not let anyone onto public transport, into offices or shops if they have a temperature. We are not even checking temperatures. Re schools, they take the temperature of every student twice a day. For anyone, if you have a temperature, you are sent home and told to self-isolate. You cannot go into the shop, public transport, school or office until your temperature has fallen to normal.

I’m scared that you teach kids, very scared.

Are you aware of the medical model we’re following in health??

LOL
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby bulldogproud » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:40 pm

am Bays wrote:
bulldogproud wrote:
am Bays wrote:our rate of infections is still below Singapore (0.004 v 0.007%) of the population

Our death rate is exceptional under 1% compared to the rest of the world (292000 cases 12 700 deaths - ~4%). https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200322-sitrep-62-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=f7764c46_2 WHO situational data reports

As someone who works in health I think the governments of all persuasions across Australia are doing a good job treading the fine line between flattening the curve and allowing people to go about our normal every day lives.

it's the d!ckheads out there making it problematic not the governments

The reality is this will effect les than who we think will get the virus and for the vast majority the effects will be mild to moderate.

The problem we have as a nation is that even with 1% Morbidity of a 20% population infection rate we don't have enough health resources to go around.

Bottom line: follow official advice, practice social distancing and good hand hygiene


If you work in health, I am very scared because you sure can't read graphs. Look up above to the one Booney posted, the same one I did that you criticised me for, saying it was fake. You read the graph the following way: the x-axis is the number of days since each country had their 100th case; the y-axis is the total number of cases.
Now, can you see that Australia has over 1500 cases after 12 days whilst Singapore is less than 500 after 22 days?? Can you also see by the slope that Australia is following a very similar trajectory to that of European countries and the US?? These are very worrying signs for Australia. The only reason our infection and death rates WERE lower is that Covid-19 hit our shores later. Sadly, we will go wayyyyyyyyyyy past the Singapore rates.

To follow Singapore, we need to do what they do: not let anyone onto public transport, into offices or shops if they have a temperature. We are not even checking temperatures. Re schools, they take the temperature of every student twice a day. For anyone, if you have a temperature, you are sent home and told to self-isolate. You cannot go into the shop, public transport, school or office until your temperature has fallen to normal.

I’m scared that you teach kids, very scared.

Are you aware of the medical model we’re following in health??


I sure am. However, it is going to get a lot worse until it gets better. We are on about a 12 day lag between actions and results. Remember that the CMO was telling us to shake hands 8 days ago, ScoMo told us to go to the football at the same time. We only started getting serious about it a couple of days ago. Saturday's effort at Bondi showed just how bad it can be for Australia. So many young people think they are immune and don't give a tinker's cuss about the consequences sadly. We will hit 5000 cases by early next week at the latest, sadly. If I am wrong, that would be excellent. However, if we are not under 5 000 cases by next week, I would be extremely surprised.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby bulldogproud » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:44 pm

I urge you to start listening to real experts: people like Raina MacIntyre, Bill Bowtell, David Caldicott, Alan Baxter - epidemiologists, virologists, immunologists and infectious disease experts. You may scoff all you like, but we are in BIG TROUBLE. When our deaths come into the hundreds aand then the thousands, come back to me then. I pray you won't have to, but I can't see it not happening.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby The Bedge » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:46 pm

My partner works with an aged care company, goes around and checks in on elderly, cleans their houses etc.

Sent me a message saying she had a client who was upset and cried to her for a fair while because his wife on 60+ years is in a nursing home adjacent to his unit complex, he can only now visit her once a day for a maximum of 30 minutes in her room and isn't allowed to hug or kiss her or help her get ready for bed like he does every night.

He's now cancelled all outside help he receives to his home just to ensure he doesn't get sick and can continue to see her once a day. :'(
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby bulldogproud » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:48 pm

The Bedge wrote:My partner works with an aged care company, goes around and checks in on elderly, cleans their houses etc.

Sent me a message saying she had a client who was upset and cried to her for a fair while because his wife on 60+ years is in a nursing home adjacent to his unit complex, he can only now visit her once a day for a maximum of 30 minutes in her room and isn't allowed to hug or kiss her or help her get ready for bed like he does every night.

He's now cancelled all outside help he receives to his home just to ensure he doesn't get sick and can continue to see her once a day. :'(


So sorry to hear this, Bedge. I pray that he does indeed stay well.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Jim05 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:50 pm

At least the WA government told the cruise ship that wanted to dock at Fremantle with 1700 passengers to **** off.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:53 pm

South Australia up from 100 to 134 cases over night.

None of these people have been admitted into Intensive Care.

All people who have been interviewed have either been over seas, in contact with someone over seas or travelled from interstate, several are directly related to the cruise ship that arrived into Sydney.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby bulldogproud » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:59 pm

Booney wrote:South Australia up from 100 to 134 cases over night.

None of these people have been admitted into Intensive Care.

All people who have been interviewed have either been over seas, in contact with someone over seas or travelled from interstate.


Well, with the fact that it is almost impossible to be tested if you don't fit those conditions, that is not surprising. Thankfully, they have now changed that to people travelling from outside SA who are showing respiratory signs.

If they were testing everyone, it is believed they would find at least ten times as many infected as numbers currently show.

Thankfully, I had a doctor who KNOWS that it can be transferred from children to teachers and made sure i was tested.

Another four cases of schoolchildren and teachers just in Auckland today. It is believed that there are hundreds in our schools with Covid-19, many being asymptomatic though. Still, those cases can be scary as Covid-19 can act like a stealth bomber spreading from one to another until it is finally detected, in an older person in most cases.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Armchair expert » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:01 pm

It’s time to actually close the borders

None of this self isolation bullcrap

Don’t let em in
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Q. » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:01 pm

bulldogproud wrote:I urge you to start listening to real experts: people like Raina MacIntyre, Bill Bowtell, David Caldicott, Alan Baxter - epidemiologists, virologists, immunologists and infectious disease experts. You may scoff all you like, but we are in BIG TROUBLE. When our deaths come into the hundreds aand then the thousands, come back to me then. I pray you won't have to, but I can't see it not happening.


I am much more optimistic about the next 4 weeks now, especially with States closing schools and Marshall likely to follow. I reckon Marshall and SA Health have been doing a pretty good job (albeit with the fortune of seeing it unfold in other states first), including dedicating an entire floor for COVID-19 response at the Lyell Mac.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Q. » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:03 pm

Down to our last 4-pack of TP though. I think I'll need to slip a pineapple to a checkout chick at Foodland to hold me a packet when they come in :shock:
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Jim05 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:04 pm

QLD have just voted to enact similar border policies to us.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby bulldogproud » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:05 pm

The union is finally taking a stance:

IEUA CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE NATION-WIDE END OF TERM FOR ALL SCHOOL STUDENTS
The IEUA’s primary concern is that schools cannot meet either their legislative Work, Health and Safety obligations or their duty of care to both their employees and students.
Accordingly, the IEUA calls for an immediate nation-wide end of term for all school students.
Employees with underlying health conditions, those who are pregnant and those who provide care for elderly relatives within their own household should, with immediate effect, be permitted to work from home or granted ex-gratia leave.
There must also be an orderly transition to emergency schooling arrangements, including support and protocols for online/remote learning. There needs to be urgent discussions between government, employers and the Unions about the provision of emergency schooling arrangements for children of essential services personnel, including the terms of engagement for volunteer staff and a safe workplace environment.
Staff working in remote schools must be provided with immediate travel arrangements to their home or home state, especially in light of emerging border arrangements.
It’s time to call time on term one now.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby bulldogproud » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:07 pm

Q. wrote:Down to our last 4-pack of TP though. I think I'll need to slip a pineapple to a checkout chick at Foodland to hold me a packet when they come in :shock:


Q, you should be fine. You are always nice to shop assistants. They will do what they do with me, I am sure. Whilst in self-isolation, my local shop has arranged to phone me each morning, ask me what I would like and deliver it to my front doorstep. Now, that is service! :)
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby bulldogproud » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:29 pm

Q. wrote:
bulldogproud wrote:I urge you to start listening to real experts: people like Raina MacIntyre, Bill Bowtell, David Caldicott, Alan Baxter - epidemiologists, virologists, immunologists and infectious disease experts. You may scoff all you like, but we are in BIG TROUBLE. When our deaths come into the hundreds aand then the thousands, come back to me then. I pray you won't have to, but I can't see it not happening.


I am much more optimistic about the next 4 weeks now, especially with States closing schools and Marshall likely to follow. I reckon Marshall and SA Health have been doing a pretty good job (albeit with the fortune of seeing it unfold in other states first), including dedicating an entire floor for COVID-19 response at the Lyell Mac.


The only problem is that both WA and SA seem very reluctant to close schools. Concerning to hear Marshall state the following this morning: 'No, I do not intend to provide any thermometers to schools at the moment; there is no health advice to do so'. If we are not going to close schools, we need to have thermometers at the very least.

Yes, we can get numbers down or at least to flatten, but it relies on people realising how critical it is to follow every instruction. To have the CMO say a week ago that it is fine to shake hands, and to have a PM say he is 'going to the football' at that time was worrying. As we didn't really start getting serious until a couple of days ago, the trajectory won't start to decrease for at least another 10 days sadly. By then, we could be somewhere around 15,000 cases. I really think the closure of schools is critical though - young people could well be thinking that if it is okay to go to school, then there is no problem in doing anything else.

The other aspect that will be very important is how people view the 'holidays'. If they view them as actual 'holidays', then numbers will not go down. The next three or four weeks are incredibly critical!
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby bulldogproud » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:33 pm

Have decided to post here what I did in another forum:

Current thoughts: With Jacinda Ardern deciding to close all New Zealand schools as of Wednesday, that will leave Australia and Mexico as the only two OECD countries not to have closed schools. When looking at the Mexican President's thoughts about the issue, this gets extremely scary for Australian teachers and schoolchildren:

'But it is the president’s personal attitude that has Mexicans puzzled. He continues to attend mass public rallies, shaking hands and kissing babies. Asked how he was protecting Mexico, López Obrador removed two religious amulets from his wallet and proudly showed them off.

“The protective shield is the ‘Get thee behind me, Satan,’” López Obrador said, reading off the inscription on the amulet, “Stop, enemy, for the Heart of Jesus is with me.”

If Morrison is following the same reasoning for not closing schools as Mexico is, he better have a mighty big Hillsong rabbit's foot!!!

I really feel for Mexico. I am religious person, but his religious beliefs are way too trusting!!
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:43 pm

bulldogproud wrote:....but his religious beliefs are way too trusting!!


The understatement to end all.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby bulldogproud » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:45 pm

cracka wrote:
amber_fluid wrote:
Mythical Creature wrote:My son left his hat home this morning. Wife dropped it off to him at school and talked to the principal (Wife is school chairperson).
Apparently the attendance rate is reasonably high still (country town fyi)


My kids school has 45% non attendance rate today.
I knew it would be high but that’s massive.
May be time to shut school then.

With school holidays so close, I don't understand why the government don't just bite the bullet and close them now. Even if they have to shorten the other school holiday periods later.


Just got the final figures; only a 14% absentee rate, but that is Iggies for you! ;)
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