Australian Specific Data
Australian State populations were taken from the ABS Website and were accurate in Sept 2019. The difference with previous estimates used above was within 0.04%, and as such no adjustments were made.
A series of complimentary charts regarding the spread of COVID-19 are available from the ABC website.
Australia’s spread of the virus appears in the previous plots as marginally slower than many other countries, grouping together with countries such as Greece, Israel and the UK. This may be a reflection of Australian geography or our tendency to have large personal space requirements.
This may also be a reflection of the pre-emptive strategies already being taken by the population and government.
Despite the above, Australia is still
clearly in the exponential growth phase with no sign of the growth levelling out. Infections are currently doubling in slightly less than 4 days.
Using an estimated population size of 25,499,884, the total percentage of the Australian population confirmed as infected currently sits at 0.007%, or one person in every 14,851.
However, projecting forward using a 7 day lag as representative of the delay between contracting the virus and manifestation of symptoms, the number of people within Australia who are currently infected may be near 6,868, which corresponds to 0.027% of the population, or one person in every 3,713
Assuming a hospitalisation rate of 12% (based on US figures found here), it can be expected that within a week, 824 will be hospitalised around Australia with severe symptoms.
https://uofabioinformaticshub.github.io ... troduction