The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Multi's

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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Bum Crack » Thu Aug 06, 2020 6:29 pm

Mihocek
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Anytime goal scorer $11.50 boosted.
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Bum Crack » Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:46 pm

About time. Finally got an 8 leg multi.
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Lightning McQueen » Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:11 am

Bum Crack wrote:About time. Finally got an 8 leg multi.

Details?

Membrey and Sexton shanked my 10 legger last night.
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Bum Crack » Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:03 am

Lightning McQueen wrote:
Bum Crack wrote:About time. Finally got an 8 leg multi.

Details?

Membrey and Sexton shanked my 10 legger last night.

I tried to post the bet slip but comes up with some message about too many pixels.

King brothers, Butler and Rankine anytime goal

Greenwood, Hill, Billings and Weller 15 or more.

Paid $10.80.
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Lightning McQueen » Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:24 am

Bum Crack wrote:
Lightning McQueen wrote:
Bum Crack wrote:About time. Finally got an 8 leg multi.

Details?

Membrey and Sexton shanked my 10 legger last night.

I tried to post the bet slip but comes up with some message about too many pixels.

King brothers, Butler and Rankine anytime goal

Greenwood, Hill, Billings and Weller 15 or more.

Paid $10.80.

Noice.
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Bum Crack » Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:28 am

8 legs for tonight.

Tippa, Townsend, Himmelberg and Finlayson anytime goal scorers

Saad, Parish, Ward and Perryman 15 or more disposals.

$15.75.
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Lightning McQueen » Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:53 am

Bum Crack wrote:8 legs for tonight.

Tippa, Townsend, Himmelberg and Finlayson anytime goal scorers

Saad, Parish, Ward and Perryman 15 or more disposals.

$15.75.

Tippa goes missing when Essendon lose, should still get a goal out of him though you'd think.
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby daysofourlives » Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:10 pm

Daniels, Snelling, Tippa anytime
GWS win
Under 102.5
20 @ $80

I have much more success with goal kickers around the $2 to $3 mark than the $1.20
I believe its wet there, scoreline could be 3-2 with these teams
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:28 pm

Devon smith goal + 12+ disposals $3.50

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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby daysofourlives » Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:44 pm

daysofourlives wrote:Daniels, Snelling, Tippa anytime
GWS win
Under 102.5
20 @ $80

I have much more success with goal kickers around the $2 to $3 mark than the $1.20
I believe its wet there, scoreline could be 3-2 with these teams


For clarification i meant 3-2 goals
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:45 pm

daysofourlives wrote:
daysofourlives wrote:Daniels, Snelling, Tippa anytime
GWS win
Under 102.5
20 @ $80

I have much more success with goal kickers around the $2 to $3 mark than the $1.20
I believe its wet there, scoreline could be 3-2 with these teams


For clarification i meant 3-2 goals
Yeah we know[emoji23]

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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Bum Crack » Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:52 pm

Bum Crack wrote:8 legs for tonight.

Tippa, Townsend, Himmelberg and Finlayson anytime goal scorers

Saad, Parish, Ward and Perryman 15 or more disposals.

$15.75.

**** you townsend
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Booney » Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:18 pm

Please.

9 legger @ $89 last night, needed McGrath to get 20+ to round it off, he had 17 at 3/4 time. Got 1 in the last. 1 FFS!
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby LMA » Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:40 pm

Just checked my SB history, I've had 15 SGM's this year totalling $100 for 0 collects. Reads like the Crows season.
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Lightning McQueen » Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:32 am

LMA wrote:Just checked my SB history, I've had 15 SGM's this year totalling $100 for 0 collects. Reads like the Crows season.

Due for a win then, load up again.
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Lightning McQueen » Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:34 am

Managed 10/11 on the Port game, Dusty needing 20 disposals was my only failure GRRR!!!
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Dutchy » Mon Aug 10, 2020 1:26 pm

This thread shows how much Bookies love SGM's :lol:
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Trader » Mon Aug 10, 2020 3:20 pm

Dutchy wrote:This thread shows how much Bookies love SGM's :lol:


Backing short priced favourites to multi it up to a large collect is one of the worst moves you can make.

15 years ago when I was turning over substantial volume I played around with some mathematical models and it quickly became apparent how bad a strategy it was.

Lets say the average market is framed at 105% in head to head markets, and more like 108% in the exotic bets (players to kick a goal, get 20 disposals, etc).

If you do a 10 leg multi in a 108% market, all of a sudden the bookies edge has gone from 8% to 115% (1.08^10 = 2.15).
That is to say, if the price you are getting on your multi is 20:1, its chances of hitting are closer to 43:1.

You are far better off just finding a bet at long odds and having a crack at it. Both are unlikely, but at least you're only paying the 'vig' or 'juice' once, rather than 10 times on the same bet!
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Booney » Mon Aug 10, 2020 3:22 pm

You're not coming to any of my parties.
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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

Postby Lightning McQueen » Mon Aug 10, 2020 3:25 pm

Trader wrote:
Dutchy wrote:This thread shows how much Bookies love SGM's :lol:


Backing short priced favourites to multi it up to a large collect is one of the worst moves you can make.

15 years ago when I was turning over substantial volume I played around with some mathematical models and it quickly became apparent how bad a strategy it was.

Lets say the average market is framed at 105% in head to head markets, and more like 108% in the exotic bets (players to kick a goal, get 20 disposals, etc).

If you do a 10 leg multi in a 108% market, all of a sudden the bookies edge has gone from 8% to 115% (1.08^10 = 2.15).
That is to say, if the price you are getting on your multi is 20:1, its chances of hitting are closer to 43:1.

You are far better off just finding a bet at long odds and having a crack at it. Both are unlikely, but at least you're only paying the 'vig' or 'juice' once, rather than 10 times on the same bet!

At $5 a pop it gives me a reason to have some interest in a game along with adding some excitement as the game progresses, if I get all but one I get a bonus bet.

I know the odds are against me but when I jag one it covers me for a while, doing a one leg long shot is no fun, it's usually dead and buried by half time.
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