Coronavirus (Covid19)

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby am Bays » Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:45 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Trader wrote:484, now we are starting to get somewhere.

Soon the exposure sites will stop and we will move into the more realistic phase of if you get covid, let your friends and family know. Their monitor their own symptoms and get tested if they develop.
None of this go to iso for 7 days cause you went to coles 15 minutes after someone else who is now positive.


Correct, except Coles & Woolies never seem to be exposure sites, despite the volume of traffic :-k


Most retail sites on the exposure list are being dealt with as causal or low casual contacts (Drakes seaford) where u you only have to get tested and wait for a negative result or monitor for symptoms.

the majority of close contacts are restaurants, gaming venues or certain rows on a plane.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby amber_fluid » Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:03 pm

Brodlach wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Trader wrote:484, now we are starting to get somewhere.

Soon the exposure sites will stop and we will move into the more realistic phase of if you get covid, let your friends and family know. Their monitor their own symptoms and get tested if they develop.
None of this go to iso for 7 days cause you went to coles 15 minutes after someone else who is now positive.


Correct, except Coles & Woolies never seem to be exposure sites, despite the volume of traffic :-k

Is that because most people are not in there for more than 15 minutes?


When did you last do the shopping? ;)

It’d take at least 30-45 minutes for a full shop
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Brodlach » Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:07 pm

amber_fluid wrote:
Brodlach wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Trader wrote:484, now we are starting to get somewhere.

Soon the exposure sites will stop and we will move into the more realistic phase of if you get covid, let your friends and family know. Their monitor their own symptoms and get tested if they develop.
None of this go to iso for 7 days cause you went to coles 15 minutes after someone else who is now positive.


Correct, except Coles & Woolies never seem to be exposure sites, despite the volume of traffic :-k

Is that because most people are not in there for more than 15 minutes?


When did you last do the shopping? ;)

It’d take at least 30-45 minutes for a full shop


I grocery shop each week, full shop in about 15 - 20 minutes


Most people are in and out getting bits and pieces in about 5 minutes
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby stan » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:28 pm

Geez the former state of Western Australia is going well, loosing it's poo over 1 case.

Can't see them opening up at all to be honest.
Read my reply. It is directed at you because you have double standards
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Jimmy_041 » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:52 pm

WHO says vaccine booster programs will prolong Covid crisis: ‘No country can boost its way out of the pandemic’

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/who-says-covid-vaccine-booster-programs-will-prolong-pandemic.html

I dont want this thing either but are we just delaying the inevitable?
I'm no fan of the WHO who kowtowed to the Chinese but this actually makes sense.
We have politicians and CHOs who are completely out of their depth and putting all of their faith in vaccines that are no match for this virus.

Dont forget this: https://kidshealth.org/en/parents/antibiotic-overuse.html#:~:text=Taking%20antibiotics%20too%20often%20or,resistance%20is%20a%20growing%20problem.

I'll keep using this because, one day, someone's going to say this happened

Image

Hitler lost the Eastern Front because he refused to face the fact that he was losing and that the battle and changed.
He refused to retreat, regroup, and change tactics. Ultimately, he lost, and blamed the very people who warned him of the impending disaster if he did not adapt.

We are losing the war against this virus and just doing the same thing over again. Why? Because the people in charge cannot face the fact that they are losing.

Hopefully someone is looking at Omicron as to whether it is the answer. OK - it is more contagious, but is it more virulent?

This thing is not going to end until there is a change in tactics.

I just wish Marshall hadn't ****ed our Christmas by pulling the trigger when he did.
But, unfortunately, we all know that sport is more important than anything to politicians.
That's why he wants to build another $1Bn stadium when the health system is crashing down
I'd rather another hospital thanks Steve :YMHUG:
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby stan » Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:01 pm

Jimmy_041 wrote:WHO says vaccine booster programs will prolong Covid crisis: ‘No country can boost its way out of the pandemic’

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/who-says-covid-vaccine-booster-programs-will-prolong-pandemic.html

I dont want this thing either but are we just delaying the inevitable?
I'm no fan of the WHO who kowtowed to the Chinese but this actually makes sense.
We have politicians and CHOs who are completely out of their depth and putting all of their faith in vaccines that are no match for this virus.

Dont forget this: https://kidshealth.org/en/parents/antibiotic-overuse.html#:~:text=Taking%20antibiotics%20too%20often%20or,resistance%20is%20a%20growing%20problem.

I'll keep using this because, one day, someone's going to say this happened

Image

Hitler lost the Eastern Front because he refused to face the fact that he was losing and that the battle and changed.
He refused to retreat, regroup, and change tactics. Ultimately, he lost, and blamed the very people who warned him of the impending disaster if he did not adapt.

We are losing the war against this virus and just doing the same thing over again. Why? Because the people in charge cannot face the fact that they are losing.

Hopefully someone is looking at Omicron as to whether it is the answer. OK - it is more contagious, but is it more virulent?

This thing is not going to end until there is a change in tactics.

I just wish Marshall hadn't ****ed our Christmas by pulling the trigger when he did.
But, unfortunately, we all know that sport is more important than anything to politicians.
That's why he wants to build another $1Bn stadium when the health system is crashing down
I'd rather another hospital thanks Steve :YMHUG:
Essentially yes, the booster isn't the answer they are looking for. This ends when the virus runs it's course and mutates its way to a harmless head cold.

Is Omicron that? This is unknown at the moment. Maybe it is the answer as you have suggested, maybe not.
Read my reply. It is directed at you because you have double standards
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby king neptune » Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:12 pm

Brother-in-law is a close contact of someone who tested positive today. Pretty sure he will test positive too.

Thanks so much Marshmallow you cucking funt. Thousands in isolation - Christmases ruined all for what?

So glad a handful of people from interstate get rewarded while the people of SA who had done the right thing and sacrificed so much including travel get punished.

Marshmallow really just should've employed the age old tactic of the dumb kid at school - copy the person next to you's work. In this case the WA Premier. Not many complaints coming from there.
Last edited by king neptune on Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Mythical Creature » Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:19 pm

One of my best mates has got the message today that he caught covid. Took 48 hours for the result to come back. Pretty confident he caught it at the cricket. He is aware of a heap of others after making phone calls today to everyone he can remember seeing each day.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Armchair expert » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:45 pm

Image

ha ha ha
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Trader » Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:31 am

Ok, story time....

Its Friday 24th of December, you've just woken up after getting home late last night; you'd been at Adelaide Oval watching the strikers get pumped and had to sink a few beverages to get you to the point you stopped asking why you bother attending. You get a message from your mate, encouraging you to attend The Ed for the usual Chrissy Eve session. "A few beers might help stave off the impending hangover" you think to yourself. But then you remember, mum told you Grandma's coming to Xmas lunch tomorrow. She's getting on and there's a good chance she won't make next year's. You've clearly been told, you're expected to be there, and in a reasonable shape. The last three times you've done The Ed on Dec 24th, you haven't made it out of bed on the 25th. Conflicted, you decide to run the numbers to determine what the best course of action is.

You log in and check out the dashboard from SA Health.
December 23rd - 484 new cases. Hmmm, that sounds high.

So that's the cases reported on the 23rd, which were results received in the previous 24 hours, ie December 22nd results. Swabs are taking between 24 and 60 hours to return results at the moment, lets split the middle and call it two days, so 484 cases were found from tests taken on or around December 20th.

Then you think a little more, people are being asked to get tested when the develop symptoms. Symptoms are presenting between 3 and 7 days after exposure, split the middle and call it 5 days. So 484 cases were caught in SA back on the 15th of December.

Well, what's the growth rate. You do some googling, every 2 days it doubles apparently. Is that real? Who knows. What did we report on the 21st?...145. Hmmm, we might be tripling every 2 days, not doubling! Anyway, lets assume SA is no worse than the rest of the world and work on doubling every two days.

So 484 cases caught on Dec 15th... Double it means 968 cases on the 17th...1936 on the 19th...3872 for the 21st....7744 on the 23rd and a massive 15,488 cases will be caught on Christmas day.

Active cases will be the cases caught on that day and the previous 7-10 days (by the time you catch it, develop symptoms, get your results then go into iso). Call it 8 days. So active cases will be the sum of the previous 8 days...50,820.

Holy Crap you think to yourself. There will be 50 thousand active cases attending Christmas Parties around Adelaide tomorrow?

There's 1.5m people in SA. That means there are slightly more than 1 in 30 people in SA positive and out in the community on Chrissie day.
Or to put it another way, each person active tomorrow, has a 3.39% chance of being positive without knowing it.

You then think, geez, mum's invited a few tomorrow. There's aunty shaz and her deadbeat boyfriend. Uncle Bill and his 4 kids are all coming. At least you like a couple of your cousins. Then there Nan and two of her friends that have no where else to go. Not to mention your three siblings and the 7 nephews and nieces. Oh, and a few plus ones. There's going to be roughly 25 people here.

Well if each individual has a 96.61% of not having covid, what's the chance all 25 don't have covid...0.9661^25 = 0.4225, or 42.25% chance no one has it. That means a 57.75% chance at least one of the guests has it.

Hmmm.... a 57.75% chance someone has covid at tomorrow's lunch? Sh!t, we're going to kill Grandma.
A moment of clarity dawns on you.
Be a hero, help save Nan's life, skip the Christmas lunch.

You text your mate back. "I'm in, cya at The Ed at 11am".
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Lightning McQueen » Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:54 am

Trader wrote:Ok, story time....

Its Friday 24th of December, you've just woken up after getting home late last night; you'd been at Adelaide Oval watching the strikers get pumped and had to sink a few beverages to get you to the point you stopped asking why you bother attending. You get a message from your mate, encouraging you to attend The Ed for the usual Chrissy Eve session. "A few beers might help stave off the impending hangover" you think to yourself. But then you remember, mum told you Grandma's coming to Xmas lunch tomorrow. She's getting on and there's a good chance she won't make next year's. You've clearly been told, you're expected to be there, and in a reasonable shape. The last three times you've done The Ed on Dec 24th, you haven't made it out of bed on the 25th. Conflicted, you decide to run the numbers to determine what the best course of action is.

You log in and check out the dashboard from SA Health.
December 23rd - 484 new cases. Hmmm, that sounds high.

So that's the cases reported on the 23rd, which were results received in the previous 24 hours, ie December 22nd results. Swabs are taking between 24 and 60 hours to return results at the moment, lets split the middle and call it two days, so 484 cases were found from tests taken on or around December 20th.

Then you think a little more, people are being asked to get tested when the develop symptoms. Symptoms are presenting between 3 and 7 days after exposure, split the middle and call it 5 days. So 484 cases were caught in SA back on the 15th of December.

Well, what's the growth rate. You do some googling, every 2 days it doubles apparently. Is that real? Who knows. What did we report on the 21st?...145. Hmmm, we might be tripling every 2 days, not doubling! Anyway, lets assume SA is no worse than the rest of the world and work on doubling every two days.

So 484 cases caught on Dec 15th... Double it means 968 cases on the 17th...1936 on the 19th...3872 for the 21st....7744 on the 23rd and a massive 15,488 cases will be caught on Christmas day.

Active cases will be the cases caught on that day and the previous 7-10 days (by the time you catch it, develop symptoms, get your results then go into iso). Call it 8 days. So active cases will be the sum of the previous 8 days...50,820.

Holy Crap you think to yourself. There will be 50 thousand active cases attending Christmas Parties around Adelaide tomorrow?

There's 1.5m people in SA. That means there are slightly more than 1 in 30 people in SA positive and out in the community on Chrissie day.
Or to put it another way, each person active tomorrow, has a 3.39% chance of being positive without knowing it.

You then think, geez, mum's invited a few tomorrow. There's aunty shaz and her deadbeat boyfriend. Uncle Bill and his 4 kids are all coming. At least you like a couple of your cousins. Then there Nan and two of her friends that have no where else to go. Not to mention your three siblings and the 7 nephews and nieces. Oh, and a few plus ones. There's going to be roughly 25 people here.

Well if each individual has a 96.61% of not having covid, what's the chance all 25 don't have covid...0.9661^25 = 0.4225, or 42.25% chance no one has it. That means a 57.75% chance at least one of the guests has it.

Hmmm.... a 57.75% chance someone has covid at tomorrow's lunch? Sh!t, we're going to kill Grandma.
A moment of clarity dawns on you.
Be a hero, help save Nan's life, skip the Christmas lunch.

You text your mate back. "I'm in, cya at The Ed at 11am".


Say G'day to William for me and tell him that Shaz's boyfriend thinks he's weak as piss.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby am Bays » Fri Dec 24, 2021 10:35 am

Jimmy_041 wrote:WHO says vaccine booster programs will prolong Covid crisis: ‘No country can boost its way out of the pandemic’

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/who-says-covid-vaccine-booster-programs-will-prolong-pandemic.html

I dont want this thing either but are we just delaying the inevitable?
I'm no fan of the WHO who kowtowed to the Chinese but this actually makes sense.
We have politicians and CHOs who are completely out of their depth and putting all of their faith in vaccines that are no match for this virus.

Dont forget this: https://kidshealth.org/en/parents/antibiotic-overuse.html#:~:text=Taking%20antibiotics%20too%20often%20or,resistance%20is%20a%20growing%20problem.



The eggs aren't all in one basket the eggs are in at least three: improved transmission based precautions (hand hygiene, social distancing mask wearing), vaccines and contract tracing/checking to manage the spread. Like all health care strategies they are heavily dependant of intra and external human factors. who wants to do the team things and wear masks and check in everytime??

Having been involved in the planning 20 months ago there was never any thoughts amongst the CHOs/ health departments about beating this it's always been about managing it as best we can until we can start dealing with it.

Jimmy_041 wrote:
I just wish Marshall hadn't ****ed our Christmas by pulling the trigger when he did.
But, unfortunately, we all know that sport is more important than anything to politicians.
That's why he wants to build another $1Bn stadium when the health system is crashing down
I'd rather another hospital thanks Steve :YMHUG:


Beds arent the problem it's staff to service them and Jimmy I know how you feel about increasing the size of the public service.

Whose up for 50% GST raise (i think I mentioned this 300-500 pages back).

Personally I think mask wearing in public and checking in are non-negotiable but the time is right now (given the overall vaccination rate) for being less stringent on the isolation/quarantining for close and casual contacts. Now's the time to start living with this.

Social distancing and mask wearing are two effective controls when done correctly that can reduce the risk of transmission via air-borne droplets which is the primary route. If you're identified as a close contact get a PCR test (greater sensitivity in the early phase) but then wear a mask at all times and socially distance.

Maybe we can have clean (non-covid) and unclean (covid +ve) spaces in public gong forward ;)

PS as we saw under Ms Chantalois' (sp) squeeze, 2 Billion hospitals actually cost over $3 Billion...
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby stan » Fri Dec 24, 2021 10:56 am

Trader wrote:Ok, story time....

Its Friday 24th of December, you've just woken up after getting home late last night; you'd been at Adelaide Oval watching the strikers get pumped and had to sink a few beverages to get you to the point you stopped asking why you bother attending. You get a message from your mate, encouraging you to attend The Ed for the usual Chrissy Eve session. "A few beers might help stave off the impending hangover" you think to yourself. But then you remember, mum told you Grandma's coming to Xmas lunch tomorrow. She's getting on and there's a good chance she won't make next year's. You've clearly been told, you're expected to be there, and in a reasonable shape. The last three times you've done The Ed on Dec 24th, you haven't made it out of bed on the 25th. Conflicted, you decide to run the numbers to determine what the best course of action is.

You log in and check out the dashboard from SA Health.
December 23rd - 484 new cases. Hmmm, that sounds high.

So that's the cases reported on the 23rd, which were results received in the previous 24 hours, ie December 22nd results. Swabs are taking between 24 and 60 hours to return results at the moment, lets split the middle and call it two days, so 484 cases were found from tests taken on or around December 20th.

Then you think a little more, people are being asked to get tested when the develop symptoms. Symptoms are presenting between 3 and 7 days after exposure, split the middle and call it 5 days. So 484 cases were caught in SA back on the 15th of December.

Well, what's the growth rate. You do some googling, every 2 days it doubles apparently. Is that real? Who knows. What did we report on the 21st?...145. Hmmm, we might be tripling every 2 days, not doubling! Anyway, lets assume SA is no worse than the rest of the world and work on doubling every two days.

So 484 cases caught on Dec 15th... Double it means 968 cases on the 17th...1936 on the 19th...3872 for the 21st....7744 on the 23rd and a massive 15,488 cases will be caught on Christmas day.

Active cases will be the cases caught on that day and the previous 7-10 days (by the time you catch it, develop symptoms, get your results then go into iso). Call it 8 days. So active cases will be the sum of the previous 8 days...50,820.

Holy Crap you think to yourself. There will be 50 thousand active cases attending Christmas Parties around Adelaide tomorrow?

There's 1.5m people in SA. That means there are slightly more than 1 in 30 people in SA positive and out in the community on Chrissie day.
Or to put it another way, each person active tomorrow, has a 3.39% chance of being positive without knowing it.

You then think, geez, mum's invited a few tomorrow. There's aunty shaz and her deadbeat boyfriend. Uncle Bill and his 4 kids are all coming. At least you like a couple of your cousins. Then there Nan and two of her friends that have no where else to go. Not to mention your three siblings and the 7 nephews and nieces. Oh, and a few plus ones. There's going to be roughly 25 people here.

Well if each individual has a 96.61% of not having covid, what's the chance all 25 don't have covid...0.9661^25 = 0.4225, or 42.25% chance no one has it. That means a 57.75% chance at least one of the guests has it.

Hmmm.... a 57.75% chance someone has covid at tomorrow's lunch? Sh!t, we're going to kill Grandma.
A moment of clarity dawns on you.
Be a hero, help save Nan's life, skip the Christmas lunch.

You text your mate back. "I'm in, cya at The Ed at 11am".
He's a good lad, skip Xmas lunch for the greater good.

Not all hero's wear capes. But they do attend the Ed session at 11pm.
Read my reply. It is directed at you because you have double standards
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Jase » Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:25 am

So went to a families place for our annual Christmas party with all the kids, 4 families an excellent evening had by all...

Got a message from the hosts this morning advising that their boy had been at OSHC on the Tuesday and one of the workers had covid.

So we are playing the waiting game now to see if anyone gets symptoms...

Merry Christmas everyone...

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby mal » Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:41 am

am Bays wrote:Course he's entitled to an opinion but when he is part of a vocal minority that have at best jaundiced views and at worst no idea due to getting information from highly unreliable sources. He cant not expect to have it challenged especially when exhibited behaviours by the anti-vaxxers, anti maskers and anti check-inners are causing harm to vulnerable innocent members of our wider community.

Sorry if this appears harsh but having sat through todays and every other days Daily huddle at a major tertiary hospital which would've been no different to what happened at the nRAH, FMC and LMH today and then when you hear though even though we ahve beds we dont ahve the staff due to all the fatigue and leave.

Despite what has been posted on here across the all states there ahs been significant preparations and planning into managing Covid, however the goal post keep changing with every mutation and outbreak so more planning and prep has to be put in place. So when the 5th Column of society spreading misinformation with no experience or knowledge on:
1. how to run a health service
2. clinical practise and
3. Virology

Is our system perfect no, in hindsight could things have been done better yes but given the environment and complexity of what we are dealing with in real time we are doing the best of a crap situation

You can expect lies and miss information (ivermectin please F***ing spare me - clinical bleach) to go unchallenged.

I'm off to go check in, wear a mask and recover from my 3rd pfizer shot (just a sore arm like the previous two)


Perhaps the most pertinent post in this thread
Perhaps the best post by the poster

One point AMBAYS made is the changing of goal posts for each mutation or outbreaks
This makes it difficult for any Health departments world wide to deal with the pandemic , and to have concise game plans

Ive been almost 100% behind what's been done, until 23/11/2021
There would never have been a correct time to open the borders
However
2nd January might have been a better time ?

Get thru the test match
Get thru the BBL matches
Get thru Christmas
Get through New Years Eve

Just my opinion
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:47 am

688 cases

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Brodlach » Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:53 am

70% of the cases are Omicron


The relaxation of restrictions has been delayed until the New Year
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Psyber » Fri Dec 24, 2021 3:23 pm

My wife and I both got the Pfizer booster on Monday 20th - 5 months after the second AZ shot. She had no significant reaction at all, but I woke with a headache and some muscular aches and pains the next day that slowed me down a bit. They faded over the following couple of days though.

I thought we are taking a bit of a risk with launching the current opening up now rather than waiting until mid-January, and now some more shut downs may happen in the new year. I suspect the decision has been driven by politician concern over elections due in early 2022 at both federal and state level, and the motivation is to avoid hostility over spoiling Christmas for the voters. It may backfire...
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby amber_fluid » Fri Dec 24, 2021 3:30 pm

Anyone got their new loyalty card?

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Psyber » Fri Dec 24, 2021 3:42 pm

I suspect an annual booster will be inevitable - maybe even 6 monthly for a while. The virus, like the Influenza one, mutates frequently and new variations will keep emerging.
EPIGENETICS - Lamarck was right!
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