The South Australian Political Landscape

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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Gozu » Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:52 am

So it's looking like 23 Labor, 21 Liberal & 2 IND with 1 undecided which is probably going to go to the Libs. If it goes to Labor then they can form govt in their own right but if as expected to the Libs then they can possibly form minority govt with the two indies where as Labor only need to convince 1 of those 2 indies to form govt at worst.

Labor are in the box seat to form govt but there is an argument that Labor might be better off allowing the Libs to form govt to avoid what would almost certainly be a Labor wipeout at the next election. I don't subscribe to that and if as expected Labor forms govt either in it's own right or with an indie you go with it and do the best you can for the next four years. Whatever might happen in 2018 may or may not happen.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby bennymacca » Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:09 pm

Gozu wrote:So it's looking like 23 Labor, 21 Liberal & 2 IND with 1 undecided which is probably going to go to the Libs. If it goes to Labor then they can form govt in their own right but if as expected to the Libs then they can possibly form minority govt with the two indies where as Labor only need to convince 1 of those 2 indies to form govt at worst.

Labor are in the box seat to form govt but there is an argument that Labor might be better off allowing the Libs to form govt to avoid what would almost certainly be a Labor wipeout at the next election. I don't subscribe to that and if as expected Labor forms govt either in it's own right or with an indie you go with it and do the best you can for the next four years. Whatever might happen in 2018 may or may not happen.


if abbott doesnt turn things around federally they could get a swing towards them in 2018 imo
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Psyber » Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:36 pm

Unfortunately, whoever forms the new state government it won't be possible to dig SA out of its debt morass by 2018 anyway...
The question is how much worse it can become.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby bennymacca » Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:46 pm

Psyber wrote:Unfortunately, whoever forms the new state government it won't be possible to dig SA out of its debt morass by 2018 anyway...
The question is how much worse it can become.


do you think that has anything to do with the governance of the state or the external pressures from federal/international economic conditions? i tend to think the latter.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Psyber » Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:57 pm

bennymacca wrote:
Psyber wrote:Unfortunately, whoever forms the new state government it won't be possible to dig SA out of its debt morass by 2018 anyway...
The question is how much worse it can become.
do you think that has anything to do with the governance of the state or the external pressures from federal/international economic conditions? i tend to think the latter.

I don't think anyone - individual or government - should run up a debt they can't reliably pay off quickly from assets or reserves if conditions turn bad.
And running up more debt than you can pay off to allegedly "build the economy" through infrastructure investment is a joke. It failed in the late 1980s and is failing again.

Nobody with any brains expands their business, or starts a new business, when they can foresee no profit in it but potential losses of their own money, regardless of new infrastructure. In my view you need to provide financial security and stability to give people the confidence to risk their own money.

(That's how I made mine, and how my sister made hers - and kindly left it to me - we both pulled out of any carrying of debt or risk in the late 1980s and got back in after the state and federal debt was reduced.)
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby bennymacca » Sun Mar 16, 2014 1:35 pm

Equating public debt and private debt is a little misleading imo. The capacity of governments to both service and handle debt is much better than an individual

I don't think anyone has suggested that SA and Australia has ever not been able to pay off their debts in recent history either.

Most of the talk about the "fiscal emergency etc" is all politics. Prime example for that is liberals raising the debt ceiling almost straight away. They know that debt ebbs and flows but they were happy to score cheap political points at a time when governments of any persuasion would have struggled.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Gozu » Sun Mar 16, 2014 1:36 pm

Libs have never been good at economics it's called a mortgage. Everyone understands you pay off your debt (mortgage) over time.

This bullshit about 'we're going to have the budget back in surplus by year x' is rubbish, both sides say that crap because it appeals to a few idiots so good luck to them.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby bennymacca » Sun Mar 16, 2014 1:45 pm

http://m.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south- ... 6856125213


Agree with chapman that the pre poll votes should also be counted ASAP but it sounds like sour grapes from MHS.

The boundaries get redrawn after every election. Libs consistently fail to win the marginal seats and rely on their big country majorities to get it done.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Roxy the Rat Girl » Sun Mar 16, 2014 2:30 pm

I think for the Libs to move forward and win the next election with a majority they need to take responsibility for the past 2 election debacles, do some real soul searching and come out the other side with a fresh and open political mindset that is inclusive of ALL members of the South Australian Community. Unfortunately all I can see on the horizon is the same as has occurred after previous losses, the blaming of anything and everyone but themselves!

Man up Liberal Party, critique the loss, take responsibility, develop a positive and inclusive strategy, and give us voters something to vote for!
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby The Sleeping Giant » Sun Mar 16, 2014 2:30 pm

Reading a few articles today, and with the Libs getting the TPP votes, does it point to the Libs not doing enough in their must win electorates? Maybe thinking "we got this in the bag" and forgetting it ain't over until its over?
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Gozu » Sun Mar 16, 2014 2:51 pm

Of the two majors Labor are known to be far and away better marginal seat campaigners. They did it masterfully under Bruce Hawker at the last election and have at the very least forced the Libs into minority govt this time which is why so many Labor people are happy about this result. Two months ago it was expected the Libs would romp it in but Labor sandbagged the hell out of the marginals and look to be favourites to remain in govt.

Why the Libs didn't make more of the Farrell intervention in Napier (attempted intervention) and go nuts about faceless men and all that jazz I'll never know. Weatherill handled that situation as best as he possibly could, holding a knife to his own throat and declaring "back off or the Premier gets it" but the SA Libs being the incompetent & generally amateurish mob they are I suppose it was to be expected.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Jimmy_041 » Sun Mar 16, 2014 3:13 pm

Gozu wrote:Libs have never been good at economics it's called a mortgage. Everyone understands you pay off your debt (mortgage) over time.

This bullshit about 'we're going to have the budget back in surplus by year x' is rubbish, both sides say that crap because it appeals to a few idiots so good luck to them.


Those idiots understand basic economics. For example: Everyone understands you pay off your debt (mortgage) over time. Yes, but these people are compounding the interest and borrowing more to make the repayments. They have NO plan, in any form, to repay the debt.
Plus, you cannot sustain an economy where you are borrowing money to pay your day to day services.
Debt is OK to pay for infrastructure where you service the debt or end up earning revenue to service, and eventually repay, the debt.
This mob relied on forecasts to justify their future expenses and, as we have found out, was based on a falsehood, same as the procurement savings.
Herein lies the problem with people swallowing the Labor crap that we can keep spending and not worry about repaying the debt. It's someone else's problem and shouldn't have to ensure some pain now. Absolute typical Labor economic doctrine. Spend it all and let someone else do the hard years and clean our mess up. Problem is, they cant keep blaming the GFC like they have been doing for years.

Predictions for the next 4 years:
1. The budget deficit will only get worse and they will never get it back to surplus
2. The debt will increase exponentially (it has already increased since the last admission but Labor have hidden it)
3. Higher public service numbers, because they have to bow to the union demands, costing more money and running up an even bigger deficit and debt.
4. Workcover will not be fixed. According to Weatherill and Rau, they are going to cut the unfunded liability of $1.4b with a stroke of a pen in 2015 so let's see what happens in real life now the unions can re-open hostilities with the government. Foley tried to reform it but had to accede to the unions who threatened to lynch him (literally).

But, the stupid people of SA have fallen for the biggest con job again and they will get what they deserve.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby The Sleeping Giant » Sun Mar 16, 2014 4:20 pm

Will that be the libs campaign slogan next time? "Vote for us stupid".
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Jimmy_041 » Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:31 pm

May as well.......... (PJK always said the voters were idiots)

Weatherill "I wont' leave anyone behind" He forgot to say "on the way down"

In fact, we should only have the election in 10 seats and save some money
95% of us don't really have a say anyway
Note: I am not supporting the "overall vote" argument. It is what it is so work within the rules
Also, I don't support the Liberals were over-confident and screwed up by ignoring that game plan this time
They did target the important seats. I know they put a lot of work and money into seats 1 - 10
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Mickyj » Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:48 pm

Jimmy_041 wrote:
Gozu wrote:Libs have never been good at economics it's called a mortgage. Everyone understands you pay off your debt (mortgage) over time.

This bullshit about 'we're going to have the budget back in surplus by year x' is rubbish, both sides say that crap because it appeals to a few idiots so good luck to them.


Those idiots understand basic economics. For example: Everyone understands you pay off your debt (mortgage) over time. Yes, but these people are compounding the interest and borrowing more to make the repayments. They have NO plan, in any form, to repay the debt.
Plus, you cannot sustain an economy where you are borrowing money to pay your day to day services.
Debt is OK to pay for infrastructure where you service the debt or end up earning revenue to service, and eventually repay, the debt.
This mob relied on forecasts to justify their future expenses and, as we have found out, was based on a falsehood, same as the procurement savings.
Herein lies the problem with people swallowing the Labor crap that we can keep spending and not worry about repaying the debt. It's someone else's problem and shouldn't have to ensure some pain now. Absolute typical Labor economic doctrine. Spend it all and let someone else do the hard years and clean our mess up. Problem is, they cant keep blaming the GFC like they have been doing for years.

Predictions for the next 4 years:
1. The budget deficit will only get worse and they will never get it back to surplus
2. The debt will increase exponentially (it has already increased since the last admission but Labor have hidden it)
3. Higher public service numbers, because they have to bow to the union demands, costing more money and running up an even bigger deficit and debt.
4. Workcover will not be fixed. According to Weatherill and Rau, they are going to cut the unfunded liability of $1.4b with a stroke of a pen in 2015 so let's see what happens in real life now the unions can re-open hostilities with the government. Foley tried to reform it but had to accede to the unions who threatened to lynch him (literally).

But, the stupid people of SA have fallen for the biggest con job again and they will get what they deserve.


I didn't vote labor or liberal made no difference in my seat labor won !!
IMHO Liberals didn't help themselves
1 The PM being here so often and the rumours of work choices etc
2 Marshals gaffs of vote labor and his allegedly dodgy business dealings ie fudging the books and then not remembering if he owned that business didn't help IMHO
3 Liberal candidate for the Salisbury saying his constituents were all smelly and unemployed

Hell more like the dodgy party
And Labor aint much better

And that stupid xeonophon party (however u spell it) stupid woman handing out fliers all most speared me trying to give me a how to vote card !! Talk about dodgy IMHO how can u be an independent in the federal system and run a party in the state election !!
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Gozu » Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:11 pm

Mickyj wrote:3 Liberal candidate for the Salisbury saying his constituents were all smelly and unemployed


On the way to my local polling booth I saw two corflutes of Anthony Antoniadis lying on the ground of the stobie pole they once adorned. I nearly grabbed one for posterity. You'll never hear anything from that guy again.
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Jimmy_041 » Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:13 pm

The Sleeping Giant wrote:Will that be the libs campaign slogan next time? "Vote for us stupid".


I was about to say: I think they tried that in Ramsay................
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby Jimmy_041 » Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:16 pm

Gozu wrote:
Mickyj wrote:3 Liberal candidate for the Salisbury saying his constituents were all smelly and unemployed


On the way to my local polling booth I saw two corflutes of Anthony Antoniadis lying on the ground of the stobie pole they once adorned. I nearly grabbed one for posterity. You'll never hear anything from that guy again.


Run him against Kouta next election: should make that seat interesting
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby philcas » Sun Mar 16, 2014 8:20 pm

I am generally a labor voter but thought that the fact they have been in for 12 years & they had some bad publicity over the last few years with education dept ,public transport issue & building reasonable high dept due to mainly infastructure spending. I felt that the public would vote for a change with a healthy majority, although I didnt think stephen Marshall filled anyone with any great confidence,that he had a clear plan to improve SA . I am staggered that they may at best have a minority government & also still possibly lose. I feel that people preety much voted the same way as previous elections with a few exceptions. Whether the libs get in to power or not they really do need to look at how they run campaigns & who they gave as candidates. I feel if they do get into power & they can not satisfy the public they are doing a good job ,Labor will be turning the screws like you wouldnt believe at the next election
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Re: The South Australian Political Landscape

Postby gadj1976 » Sun Mar 16, 2014 8:33 pm

That's the thing isn't it. Give us something to vote for, not a reason to vote against a party.
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