Richmond v North Melbourne
FNF kicks off with a not so dead rubber, but it kind of is now, 5th placed Richmond ( 56pts 121% ) take on the 8th placed Roos ( 52pts 109 % ). A win for the Tigers and they should stitch up 5th spot while a loss could see them drop to 7th and perhaps travel to play Adelaide in Adelaide. That’d be fun for Tigers fans, they loved last year’s Adelaide Oval finals experience.
The Roos meanwhile will want to keep winning form going, but a win might see them go to Adelaide to face the rampant Crows. Not really a very enticing proposition at the moment, as such, they’ve asked the AFL if it’s ok to go half arsed and the AFL said yep, sure, why not. Poor AFL, poor.
Both of these sides have had some solid late season form, both have had some bottom 8 opposition in recent weeks, but Richmond have beaten Hawthorn and North have beaten Fremantle in those runs. So, you while you can only beat who you’re playing, they’ve beaten some quality sides. As for only beating who you’re playing, the Tigers will beat the second string Kangaroos line up easily. By 48 points.
Geelong v Adelaide
Well it’s sayonara for some Cats legends, Kelly and Stokes have announced a farewell to the faithful at Cat Park, there might be another one or two announce the same before the game, the home fans will be cheering them off and cheering Paddy D in if all goes as most of us see it. Adelaide are set for finals footy, a win and a Roos win will see them finish 6th ( won’t happen with the Roos throwing the game tonight ) and an unlikely Bulldogs loss to Brisbane could have them as high as 5th. Either way they’ll play post season for the first time since 2012.
Geelong have got little to play for in terms of premiership aspirations, but they’ve got plenty to play for as far as pride goes. They let themselves down last Friday night against the Pies, they let Enright down early this year dropping his 300th to the Demons at home and they will not want to send out a group of retiring/sacked champions with a loss to end the year. They’ll be set for this one, question is, how long can they keep up the mental application in a game that’s got nothing on the end of it for them?
Adelaide, what can you say about them? Pretty much what I’ve said for about the last month, forward are on fire, backs are solid and the mids are winning plenty of ball as big Sauce taps in down their throats. They are the form team of the bottom half of the 8, they just pumped the Eagles ( who admittedly have been “up” for several weeks ) and look set to give the sides above them in the 8 something to look over their shoulder at. They’re in ripping nick, scoring heavily and their key big men all through the spine are the keys.
I think Adelaide will win this, win it comfortably, by 45 points.
Brisbane v Bulldogs
Last one out, please turn the lights off? It will be some cold, soulless corridors around the Lions over summer, with players already being told DCM, others saying they want to move and a handful yet to decide it’s not a happy place to be at the moment, they’ve still got a game to play and it’s a team on the rise, the Bullies. The Dogs are wanting an Adelaide win and a Kangas win would give them a home final against the Roos, a Tigers win and they’ll get Adelaide. The Roos game at the G or the Crows under the roof? With 11 wins from their last 13 under the roof, they’ll want to play there next week. ( Edit – The AFL has stated all finals will be at the MCG next weekend )
Not much can be said about this one, one factor will be the heat up in Brisbane, 23° Saturday and this one played at 2pm means the Dogs will be exposed to some early spring warmth. It might be something they look to manage with a trip home and a final to play the following week. The Lions will just be hoping enough of their blokes roll up to make a side up and get out on the park.
Can’t see this one having much heat in it, the Dogs will run the Lions off their feet early and take the foot off as they melt under the Brisbane sun. The Lions could get close late, if they’ve got their heads in the game and play it out. Bulldogs by 40+ with another wooden spoon in the Bears/Lions keeping.
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Well, half of Fremantle anyway. Fair enough, they’ve got the right to rest players up, they’ve earned it by finished clear on top of the table. Port though have plenty of pressure on them, we don’t want to lose to a team voluntarily missing a third of their starting line up. Port will end the season most likely in Richmond, I mean 9th one game out the 8....only got themselves to blame for missing September action and it might be 7 wins from the last 8 for the Power.
Might not be quite as one sided as most punters think ( Port $1.11 Fremantle $6.75 ) as Fremantle might show it’s system over personnel and they will have half a dozen blokes gunning to keep their spot in the side. Most of them would have been told in this week out the next, but form gets rewarded and some of the last picked last week will be looking and the “ins” this week,wondering “Will he take my spot next week?”
With Port in good form, the Dockers resting heaps, the money should be in Ports favour. Twilight game so the wife shouldn’t expect much from me when I arrive home Saturday night / Sunday morning. Port to win the last one of a frustrating season by 30 points.
Hawthorn v Carlton
It’s another Hawks v Blues clash, the Hawks only ripped them a new one a month ago and the hapless Blues get to cop another dose of brown and gold running through them this week. Lucky them, they might be able to get a doctor’s note to get out of this one. In one box Clarkson will be plotting another assault on a premiership, in the other box John Barker will keep the seat warm from Brendan Bolton and Bolton will be looking at the Hawks line up thinking, how am I supposed to live without you?
The Hawks have lost 2 of their last 5, Richmond and Port beating them in similar fashion. While they knew a top 4 spot was theirs they would have preferred a top 2 spot and all their finals at the G, instead, it’s off to Perth next week for them to face the Eagles. ( Unless the most shocking of upsets occur and St Kilda beat West Coast in Perth ). You can’t bet on this one, $1.01 for the Hawks and $18 for Carlton. That suggests someone might bet on the Blues, they really should be ”Not listed” in the betting market here.
The Hawks will fine tune themselves this week, winning by a lazy 70+ points as the Blues think about their Mad Monday outfits.
Sydney v Gold Coast
Sneaky little millionaires, aren’t they? With 4th spot theirs ( unless the Blues beat the Hawks....comedy gold that ) they are set to also head to Perth and face the Dockers in the first week as the boys on the Gold Coast settle in for some sunshine over the next month or so before getting smashed on the preseason training track.
Sydney have just slowly but surely built up their form over the last 8 weeks, a big win over the Saints last week, the same over GWS the week before with 20 goals on both occasions after beating the Pies. A little hiccup down at Geelong and a solid win over Adelaide before that has them just building nicely. They’ve been the sleepers of the competition all year and they’ll win this one comfortably and head to Perth very confident of matching it with the Dockers. Last time over there, way back in round 4 it was the Dockers by 14 points.
Sydney sure up 4th spot, winning by 39+ here.
West Coast v St Kilda
Not much to play for here for either side. In the very remote chance St Kilda upset the Eagles the Eagles could surrender second spot, but after last week’s hiding at Adelaide Oval the Eagles will appreciate some simulated match practice in this one, St Kilda on a hiding to nothing here. Although, being a Saturday night game they might get the red eye home to Melbourne and kick off Man Monday on board a virgin. Funny, that’s how Mad Mondays usually end.
We all expect West Coast to win big here, do their best to get back on track for the first final at home next weekend and the Saints will be just a minor bit player in this one. The Eagles by 60+
The final two Sunday games are both dead rubbers, neither of them have much interest in them at all, the only way you could make them interesting is to throw them in a big multi to try and pull some funds together for the next few weeks of frothies on the lounge.
GWS should account for Melbourne with ease, by 44 points in pretty much the least enticing match up of the round. Etihad will be a cold empty place on Sunday afternoon.
The last game of the minor round will be an empty MCG with the Bombers facing the Pies. The Pies bounced back into the winners circle last Friday night, the Cats suffered from the amount of run the Pies mids generated and they’ll do the same again this week, winning by 30 points.
For something different to wrap up the year I’m going a multi this weekend, the last few games of the year are hardly worth looking into so don’t just pick ‘em, back ‘em on footy punt!
Richmond 39+ / Adelaide 39+ / Port 25+ / Hawthorn 60+ / Sydney 39+ / West Coast 60+ ( I’ll post the odds later when I’ve put it on )
TTFWIW – Finals next week....good luck to those still in the hunt for a win in their footy tipping competitions.
