Crows 2016

[Booney]

It was interesting to note the panel, be they experts or not, all seemed to think the crows would miss Dangerfield to the extent that they would miss finals this season.... other than Healy who had the crows in the 8. Crows fans that I speak too are very confident of top 4 this season.... see how it pans out hey!

you speak to different crows fans than me then! Honestly havent met a single fan that thinks we will do better than last year. Some think we will be about the same, most think we will go down slightly

It will be remarkable if they hold sway. Losing Dangerfield, tough draw and the emotion of last year has settled ( at least to those of us outside that bubble ).

[MW]

No Crows supporter in their right mind has us top 4. We would need career best seasons out of most of the list to get anywhere near top 4.
I have us around 7-10 depending on how the first 10 weeks pan out.

[bennymacca]

Yes, clearly I must... one young bloke from cricket, and another lad (mid 20's) from golf..... maybe it's the optimism of youth!

well i hope they are right and im very wrong!

No Crows supporter in their right mind has us top 4. We would need career best seasons out of most of the list to get anywhere near top 4.
I have us around 7-10 depending on how the first 10 weeks pan out.

could be more like 7-12 i reckon, and the finals will be huge this year, wheras i expected it last year

[Corona Man]

No Crows supporter in their right mind has us top 4. We would need career best seasons out of most of the list to get anywhere near top 4.
I have us around 7-10 depending on how the first 10 weeks pan out.

Good to see someone (crows follower) who is realistic about the Crows chances....I think you are correct in your assessment, but no doubt Roo, Jars & Co will pump up the fans & fill them with a false belief to start making plans for September!

[Booney]

No Crows supporter in their right mind has us top 4. We would need career best seasons out of most of the list to get anywhere near top 4.
I have us around 7-10 depending on how the first 10 weeks pan out.

Good to see someone (crows follower) who is realistic about the Crows chances....I think you are correct in your assessment, but no doubt Roo, Jars & Co will pump up the fans & fill them with a false belief to start making plans for September!

You can start making plans, Bali, Fiji, Thailand, anywhere but Adelaide Oval or Melbourne.

[Fluffbag]

No Crows supporter in their right mind has us top 4. We would need career best seasons out of most of the list to get anywhere near top 4.
I have us around 7-10 depending on how the first 10 weeks pan out.

Good to see someone (crows follower) who is realistic about the Crows chances....I think you are correct in your assessment, but no doubt Roo, Jars & Co will pump up the fans & fill them with a false belief to start making plans for September!

You can start making plans, Bali, Fiji, Thailand, anywhere but Adelaide Oval or Melbourne.

After barracking for south for 38 years, I am used to booking holidays in September

Can't see Crows making the finals as I agree with fox footy last night, the lost of Dangerfield is worth 3 games, and midfield depth is rather thin.

Tackling, goal kicking and kicking the ball out from a point are still issues within the club.

[MW]

The draw is worth 3 games!

[Spargo]

Don't know if it's been posted earlier but I've had a look at Adelaide's first 8 games -
Their season could almost be over before it begins...

[Mr Beefy]

Don't know if it's been posted earlier but I've had a look at Adelaide's first 8 games -
Their season could almost be over before it begins...

Gozu's predictions has them 1 and 7 after R8

[stan]

Tough first 8 but some winnable games are in there. Maybe be 4-4 at R8. That would mean counting on wins against Port at home - 50/50 chance really, swans at home, freo at home and I think they are a chance against North away as well and also Geelong at home.

[Booney]

Don't know if it's been posted earlier but I've had a look at Adelaide's first 8 games -
Their season could almost be over before it begins...

That's why they've hit the NAB so hard, they need to hit the ground running and be at worst 4-4 after 8 games. Any worse and it's probably a bridge too far. As they say though, it's a marathon not a sprint so even if they are 6-2 at that point they'll have spent plenty of tickets doing so.

[bennymacca]

if we are 4-4 after 8 i think we can make finals

A port friend of mine reckons we wont win more than 2 of our first 10! My $50 says he is wrong

[Booney]

if we are 4-4 after 8 i think we can make finals

A port friend of mine reckons we wont win more than 2 of our first 10! My $50 says he is wrong

So 3 wins from your first 10 for you to get the choccies?

Who will they be?

[Spargo]

Many Crows supporters seem to be putting all their eggs in one basket re round 1 v North.
This is the game many have singled out as the most probable victory in their first 8 matches.
If we happen to buck the trend of losing every season opener under Scott & get up, it will be a hell of a let down for Adelaide so early in the year...

[stan]

Many Crows supporters seem to be putting all their eggs in one basket re round 1 v North.
This is the game many have singled out as the most probable victory in their first 8 matches.
If we happen to buck the trend of losing every season opener under Scott & get up, it will be a hell of a let down for Adelaide so early in the year...

Yep definitely make it hard if they drop that one. As most of them look at it as a good chance to get a win. But it will be tough for them no doubt.

[Former Glory]

if we are 4-4 after 8 i think we can make finals

A port friend of mine reckons we wont win more than 2 of our first 10! My $50 says he is wrong

So 3 wins from your first 10 for you to get the choccies?

Who will they be?

Suns then Giants in rounds 9 and 10 would have to be considered the most winnable games. Richmond at Etihad is a better proposition than against them at the G. Swans and Freo at home are more winnable than past years in my eyes. All it takes is a key injury or two to either a Crows player or opposition player to change the complexity of a match up.

At this point though I think it is a reasonable bet, I don't see too many more wins than that though.

[bennymacca]

I have tried give us a percentage chance of winning each game. You may argue them but I don't think I'm that far off

North (A) 40%
Port (H) 50
Rich (a) 50
Syd (h) 40
Haw (a) 10
Freo (h) 20
Dogs (a) 40
Geel (h) 50
Gc (a) 70
Gws (h) 80

That adds up to 4.2 wins if we realise our equity

Guess it depends a lot on us jagging a couple of the 50/50 and 40/60 games

[TEX07]

No Crows supporter in their right mind has us top 4. We would need career best seasons out of most of the list to get anywhere near top 4.
I have us around 7-10 depending on how the first 10 weeks pan out.

thats the key - a poor start is always hard to come back from. Our first 8 we could be competitive and still only win 3 games.

[HH3]

I have tried give us a percentage chance of winning each game. You may argue them but I don't think I'm that far off

North (A) 40%
Port (H) 50
Rich (a) 50
Syd (h) 40
Haw (a) 10
Freo (h) 20
Dogs (a) 40
Geel (h) 50
Gc (a) 70
Gws (h) 80

That adds up to 4.2 wins if we realise our equity

Guess it depends a lot on us jagging a couple of the 50/50 and 40/60 games

Given that these are entirely based on your own opinion, of course you don't think you're far off. That's what you think.

I'd say you guys are about a 74.3% chance to win about 3 of them.

[bennymacca]

We'll have a crack yourself then