Perfervid scrutiny of Round 15

[Booney]

Who else gains immense pleasure from telling the Mrs that there’s 4 weeks of Thursday night footy and we’ve still got 3 to go? Couldn’t have made her happier, certainly not since I told her that her grey hair is making her look more like her mother.

Whilst the AFL can’t predict who’ll be shit and who won’t, this week dishes up a few dead rubbers, a mercy killing, a potentially close one and a season shaping match for two top 4 aspirants.



TNF – Eagles v Bombers

Thursday kicks off with the we like it at home Eagles facing off against the we don’t much like it at all Bombers. Both sides had the bye last weekend so nothing to report here.

In fact, there’s probably not much to report at all really. The Eagles beat up on the weak teams at home and haven’t beaten anyone in the 8, their best form indicators of late are the 8 point loss to the Dogs away followed by the 29 point loss to Adelaide at home. In the run home they have Essendon (H), North (H), Carlton (A), Melbourne (H), Collingwood (A), Fremantle, Giants (A), Hawks (H) before finishing off against the Crows in Adelaide. If the form runs true they’ll win 5, maybe 6 more to end up with 13 or 14 wins and 8th spot. That will suck, for whoever finishes 5th will probably be a game or two off top and be in a different class to the Eagles of ’16. With Naitanui set to miss the rest of the year this Eagles unit will fall into 8th spot and be easy pickings come week one of finals.

No point looking at who the Bombers have, they finish off with 9 games against teams above them on the ladder. This includes the Crows, Geelong and the Bulldogs in three of the last 5 weeks. Ouch.

The Eagles a good thing here, the betting says so much too. West Coast by 66 points. ( Eagles $1.01 Essendon $21 )



FNF – Port v Richmond

Meh. Two sides outside the 8 who most certainly had higher aspirations than playing a dead rubber to start the second half of the year.

Port were diabolical against the Dockers a fortnight ago, making matters worse the Dockers go to Melbourne and get pumped by a half arsed Collingwood unit. If that’s franking form then Ports pre-bye form was wretched. Questions were asked, again. Answers were given, again. None of it means a pinch of shit to the Port fan as it’s another year of “What if?” and “Why didn’t we?”. With a draw that takes in Hawthorn, North and GWS after the Tigers along with Sydney away and Adelaide before the year end means Port can expect to be maybe 10 or 11 wins come the pointy end and be at least 2 games behind 8th, maybe more. Big questions over the leaders of the group after the Fremantle loss and no doubt we’ll see some response this week, too late she cried. I’m backing Charlie Dixon to enjoy less focus with Schulz in the side and to prosper in front of goal this week.

The Tigers have won 4 of their last 5, those 4 being Fremantle, Essendon, Gold Coast and Brisbane. Also currently sitting 6-7 in pretender land with Port, Melbourne, St Kilda and Carlton they don’t have a dream run on the way home either. The Dogs, Hawks, Giants, Cats and Swans to come they too have little chance of mounting any chance of an unlikely finals berth. Big couple of months for the Tigers to decide if it’s another round of recruiting from a potato farm or some trading away of any of the little quality they have to mount a crack at some first and second round draft picks. My guess is they’ll not give up any of the quality they do have for fear of upsetting the Tiger army and go into 2017 with more spuds on their list.


Home ground and crowd advantage should see Port win by 4 or 5 goals. Port by 26 points. ( Port $1.40 Richmond $2.95 )



Gold Coast v St Kilda –

Interesting week for them both last week. The Suns went to Tassie and led the Hawks by a few goals early in the second before conceding 10 goals to 4 after ¼ time. Pretty good effort from a side who has shown little heart over the last couple of months. The Saints surprised everyone and thundered into the Cats from go to whoa to record one of the upsets of the year and potentially dent the top spot chances of Geelong.

4 of the Suns most important stood tall last week, Ablett was back to being GAj, Lynch clunked some serious contested marks against quality opposition and big Nicholls took on and beat the McEvoy/Ceglar combination. Harbrow often gets over looked for his importance, but between the 50m arcs he’s a valuable contributor. Clearances, I50s and R50s along with 25 touches. A couple more look to be getting out of the physio rooms and onto the park, might see some improved efforts with these guys in the next month or so. Should have beaten Richmond two weeks ago and stuck with the Hawks for a while, they’re not out of this one.

3 point loss to the Hawks, 7 point loss to the Kangas, 3 point win over the Cats.....and some pants down thrashings in between. Why the gap? “We’re a young group” say EVERY club, St Kilda are 13th on the list for average age, 5 clubs including the Dogs and Giants have younger lists than them, so let’s not go down that path. Is it game style? Adelaide and West Coast have beaten them by a combined 211 points. Ick. Something isn’t right when you cop 100+ point losses then beat the top side. Perhaps application of the game plan and ability to stick to it is the problem, or is the list thin and when they’re on they’re on? Me, I think it’s application and they’re hard to trust.

I give the Suns a chance here, they’ll perhaps gain Kolodjashnij and Martin back this week. The Saints should win, but this is one they are very capable of dropping. St Kilda by 9 points. ( GC $1.78 St Kilda $2.05 )



Sydney v Bulldogs –

Promises to be a ripping contest between two potential top 4 contenders, or will it be? Both sides had the weekend off last weekend so nothing to review there. The week before however might shed some light on what we can expect here.

In the wet the Swannies gave the Demons a touch up, some of the not oft spoken of names of Nankervis, Hewett and Lloyd joined in with the big names to hit the scoreboard and Jones and Towers made an impact around the ground. Towers showing some versatility by gaining possessions, hitout’s, tackles and goals. Good all round performance. It’s the likes of Towers and Nankervis that can take some of the load off Sinclair as the Swans navigate through the second half of the year Tippettless. Looking at the Dogs form of the last few weeks isn’t quite as impressive. Two weeks back the Cats touched them up and the game was all but won by ¼ time, the week before the Dogs took all day to shake of an up and down Port Adelaide and prior to that held on by 8 points over the Eagles in Melbourne. Really does look like the bye came at the right time for the Doggies. They limped into the break and if they want a top 4 spot they really need to win this one.

The Swans have had some wet weather contests in the last couple of months to up the numbers, but across the board they have upped the pressure on the ball carrier and lead the competition for tackles with 85 per game, the league average is 70, the Dogs average 64. Clearly the Dogs have dropped their pressure on the ball carrier and no bigger challenge than trying to up that against the Swans.

The Swans back line holds together well, the mids run deeper than anyone and Bud is on fire. I’m thinking this one might be a bit one sided with the Swans winning by 38 points. ( Sydney $1.37 Dogs $3.10 )




Carlton v Collingwood –

The Pies faithful, all 20,000 of them, braved the conditions to see them beat a pathetic Fremantle unit last Friday night as the Blues went a bit North to play GWS and duly copped a hiding. With 13thv14th the crowd might not be as big as it normally would for the old rivals, although Carlton fans have come out of the woodwork a bit this year, the Pies fans have burrowed in hiding from daylight.

Stats across the board are pretty even for both these sides, the key indicators of contested ball, tackles, I50’s, clearances are all within a bulls roar of each other. The difference might be the conditions and how the two sides set up. Collingwood have been going with White, Cox and last week Cloke up front, Grundy in the middle and Reid and Brown down back. That’s some height and it somehow worked in last weeks terrible conditions. The Blues on the other hand use Tuohy, Docherty, Plowman ( that’s his name it’s Mr Plow ) and even Weitering as the runners to set up from defence and Simpson is the one setting them all up. Rowe and Weitering will have their work cut out if the Pies can get some meaningful entries to the big men in the Pies F50. If the ball gets ground level the Blues will run it out. Interesting battle.

Both sides have won 3o f their last 5, both sides score about the same and both sides concede about the same. I think Carlton have the better defensive structure that the poorer sides struggle with, Collingwood clearly have the better attacking options, certainly the talls.

Really tough to pick this one, the Blues form across the season is more solid and the loss to GWS and St Kilda prior to that are reasonable indicators. The Pies win over Fremantle not convincing. Carlton by 11 points. ( Carlton $2.10 Collingwood $1.74 )




Melbourne v Adelaide –

The last of the games in the last of the short rounds. Melbourne back on their home deck at the G after a week in the snow and Adelaide coming in on consecutive 10 day breaks after a convincing win over the Kangaroos on a cold night in Adelaide.

The Dee’s needed the week off after being beat up in the wet at the SCG, the Swans laid an unprecedented 155 tackles. If you spread that out, each Melbourne player was subjected to copping 7 tackles, that’s nearly 2 per quarter and the Swans stick their tackles. Probably more boys in the spa at Thredbo last week than on the slopes. Another side 6-7 but they’ve got a leaky defence that won’t deal with Adelaide’s attack. The midfield need to be at their competitive best this week to help the backline anyway they can.

Could Adelaide have just been gifted the best possible mid-season break? They played the Eagles in Perth, had the weekend off and faced the Kangaroos at home. The Crows on a 10 day break the Kangas on a 6 day break. Now they play Sunday, another 10 day break so 1 game in 3 weeks and they must be fresh after a tough first half of the year. They’re a genuine top 4 contender with the most damaging forward line in the game at the moment, talls, mids and smalls all playing their role. Rory’s Sloane and Atkins inside and out in the middle, Laird in defence all leading the way. Talia blankets his opponent and Hogan will have no space this week with, in my view, the best CHB in the game all over him.

Adelaide building for a tilt at top 4, this one will be challenging but I expect Adelaide’s forward to flourish on the expanses of the G. Look for Lynch and Betts to do their best work this week. Adelaide by 44 points.
( Melbourne $3.35 Adelaide $1.33 )

[JK]

All bar the Thursday night games hold a form of interest I'd say (at least for non-Eagles or Bombers fans)

[mighty_tiger_79]

Eagles by plenty
Port - home ground advantage
Sainters
Swannies
Draw - carlton-pies

Melbourne to upset flag favs

[Jim05]

When our punishment was handed out this was the fixture I was most worried about. The Eagles got their tag of FTB's from this type of game and expecting a 140 point hiding

[Brodlach]

Eagles by plenty
Port - home ground advantage
Sainters
Swannies
Draw - carlton-pies

Melbourne to upset flag favs

Thought the Hawks had the bye?

[whufc]

All bar the Thursday night games hold a form of interest I'd say (at least for non-Eagles or Bombers fans)

for the neutrals though I think are 3 dead rubbers and 1 forgone conclusion

IMHO it's one of the most 'boring' rounds in recent history especially considering we are only just over half way through the year

[Fricky]

In years gone passed the Crows would lose this game by 6+ goals.

[Wedgie]

In years gone passed the Crows would lose this game by 6+ goals.

Crows have won 22
Melbourne 12

[Rik E Boy]

All bar the Thursday night games hold a form of interest I'd say (at least for non-Eagles or Bombers fans)

for the neutrals though I think are 3 dead rubbers and 1 forgone conclusion

IMHO it's one of the most 'boring' rounds in recent history especially considering we are only just over half way through the year

Isn't there a scoreless draw you should be watching?

regards,

REB

[Booney]

All bar the Thursday night games hold a form of interest I'd say (at least for non-Eagles or Bombers fans)

for the neutrals though I think are 3 dead rubbers and 1 forgone conclusion

IMHO it's one of the most 'boring' rounds in recent history especially considering we are only just over half way through the year

Isn't there a scoreless draw you should be watching?

regards,

REB

Ease up mate, it's a good one!

[whufc]

All bar the Thursday night games hold a form of interest I'd say (at least for non-Eagles or Bombers fans)

for the neutrals though I think are 3 dead rubbers and 1 forgone conclusion

IMHO it's one of the most 'boring' rounds in recent history especially considering we are only just over half way through the year

Isn't there a scoreless draw you should be watching?

regards,

REB

Give me that anyday over what will be 100 point thrashing and game over halfway through the second quarter in western australia this weekend.

[whufc]

In all seriousness though i reckon the AFL would be a tad worried that in round 14 and 15 we are already seeing 3 complete dead rubbers each round when it comes to finals/premiership implications.

Considering the AFL literally revolves around TV Audiences and Attendances i reckon they would see this as having huge financial impact on themselves and the clubs.

Maybe this is a reason we have such as 'bandwagon' mentality in AFL attendance as once a team cant make finals which for clubs such as Freo and Brisbane was five weeks into the season, they literally are playing for draft picks.

[JK]

All bar the Thursday night games hold a form of interest I'd say (at least for non-Eagles or Bombers fans)

for the neutrals though I think are 3 dead rubbers and 1 forgone conclusion

IMHO it's one of the most 'boring' rounds in recent history especially considering we are only just over half way through the year

As a neutral, this round has more games I'm interested in than last round. Sure a couple of them appear to be dead rubbers, but Imho all games have done interest bar Thurs night

[LMA]

Next year I hope they just have 1 bye round after rd 12, you won't see teams coming off consecutive 6 day breaks versing sides fresh off the bye and fans will be itching at the bit to attend or tune in after a week off.

[Jim05]

Next year I hope they just have 1 bye round after rd 12, you won't see teams coming off consecutive 6 day breaks versing sides fresh off the bye and fans will be itching at the bit to attend or tune in after a week off.

TV Broadcasters want games every week so can't see them agreeing to have a mid year break

[LMA]

Next year I hope they just have 1 bye round after rd 12, you won't see teams coming off consecutive 6 day breaks versing sides fresh off the bye and fans will be itching at the bit to attend or tune in after a week off.

TV Broadcasters want games every week so can't see them agreeing to have a mid year break

They're having a week off after the final round this year, not ideal if you finish top 4 and win the first week. Week on, week off, week on, week off, week on to make the GF

[heater31]

Next year I hope they just have 1 bye round after rd 12, you won't see teams coming off consecutive 6 day breaks versing sides fresh off the bye and fans will be itching at the bit to attend or tune in after a week off.

TV Broadcasters want games every week so can't see them agreeing to have a mid year break

Only way to solve that problem....State of Origin.....

[Grahaml]

State of origin died for a darn good reason and those reasons are even more of a hindrance now. Let's just move on, leave it in the past as a great chapter of the game and stop pining for something that just won't happen.

[cracka]

In all seriousness though i reckon the AFL would be a tad worried that in round 14 and 15 we are already seeing 3 complete dead rubbers each round when it comes to finals/premiership implications.

Considering the AFL literally revolves around TV Audiences and Attendances i reckon they would see this as having huge financial impact on themselves and the clubs.

Maybe this is a reason we have such as 'bandwagon' mentality in AFL attendance as once a team cant make finals which for clubs such as Freo and Brisbane was five weeks into the season, they literally are playing for draft picks.

Too many teams. Cull 4 of them, piss the pre season crap off & have a 26 round home & away comp with 1 week off in the middle.

[bennymacca]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kLnuRsrGhU