A sedulous analysis of Round 16

[Booney]

Whilst I didn’t really enjoy the split rounds with just 6 games per weekend over 4 days and little FTA coverage of some ( well I thought I didn’t until I had to come up with 9 games worth of previews ) I have enjoyed looking at a full round of matches and the coming month or so will be pretty exciting to watch as top 8 sides face off against each other in season defining matches. We’ve got two of them this weekend and every weekend from now to the first week of finals will be the same. Big finish coming up with 6 sides neck deep in it and two sides battling each other this weekend to prove that they too are worthy.


TNF Port v Hawthorn -

The last of the Thursday night matches, again cocked up by those at AFL HQ, Port off a 6 day break vs the Hawks off an 11 day break. Yeah, nah, as they say in the classics. Port ended the Tigers run, I was certain they were set to win all the games they had to play and make the 8. Port too good inside the contest in the wet and Richmond paddling with their big men MIA on the night. Hawkers coming off the weekend off.

Port looked to the leaders last week and the heat was on Boak, Wines, Ebert and co and they stood up in the wet. Boak was outstanding, 26 touches, 11 tackles, 3 R50, 5 I50 and 2 goals. Outstanding night from the skipper who has copped some rough criticism this year in my view, he’s not been stellar, he’s not been below good either. Kane Mitchell came in and stuck to Cotchin like the proverbial and was one of Ports best, unexpected best too. Who will he get this week? Won’t matter, life will be harder than it was on Cotchin who didn’t go out of his way to shake Mitchell off.

Can we all believe the Hawks are sitting top? Roughead with his battles looked to be ( and is ) a huge loss, Hodge has only played 5 games for the year, age looked to be catching up on them but the likes of Sicily, Hartung, Duryea and Shiels have reinvigorated a side that many expected to drop a little. For mine, when the big games have been there to be won Lewis and Mitchell have been outstanding and they will prove to be a challenge for Port Adelaide this week. One bloke who doesn’t get many plaudits is Frawley, he’s rarely beaten, doesn’t create much, but doesn’t get beaten much either. Port have won 3 of the last 5 in this match up, both of the encounters in 2015 went to the Power. One when expected and the other when it wasn’t, could there be an upset on the cards here then?

Not likely as Port have been capable, then lamentable, then capable, then, you get it and the Hawks are a model of consistency, although they don’t always rise to the lesser opponents. Often they just get the job done. Hawks by 18 points and not the silliest of upset chances here. ( Port $2.60 Hawks $1.50 )


FNF Geelong v Sydney –

Ripping contest set up down at Cat Park. The Catters had a week off to lick their wounds after the Saints rolled them and the Swans will be filthy they dropped one to the Bulldogs in Sydney when they had all the momentum late. Two sides who won’t want to lose two in a row. Two sides who don’t often lose two in a row.

The Cats would be dirty, with losses to Collingwood, Carlton and now the Saints all when clear favourites at this point has cost them top spot, not just top spot but they should be at least one, maybe two games clear in top spot and looking at the possibility of managing players in the last 8 weeks. Not now. They’re now in the pack with the rest who could be top or 6th and there’s plenty to be said for not being 6th. They were simply hassled out of it by the Saints, they lost clearances and tackles but had more touches and more I50’s. They can say it all they want, but they were not up for the Saints game and it cost them.

On a different scale with the opposition but the Swans were much the same, beaten up inside the contest. Less clearances, less contested ball and they don’t lose those stats often, if ever. When they kicked the first 3 goals of the last quarter to take back the lead and Buddy was lurking around like a shark at Bondi on a summers day it looked to be all over, Swans win. But no. Looked like the Swans had got momentum back after they gave up 5 goals on the run in the 3rd quarter but the Dogs pressure was too much for them. They too will want to make amends. With a loss last week, the Cats and then the Hawks we’ll see how the Swans are set to fare without Tippett.

How do you pick this one? ****. Geelong at home by 9. ( Geelong $1.45 Sydney $2.75 – Might be some value on the Swannies here )


GWS v Collingwood –

The Giants put the feet up last week, the Pies played a forgettable one against the Blues. It was that interesting the channel 2 coverage of the Federal Election was decidedly more entertaining, in fact more goals were kicked by Jeff Kennett on that coverage than Carlton and Collingwood combined....no, literally.

The Giants have been on the right end of some other sides bad luck in the last two weeks, the Swans loss to the Dogs and the Cats loss to the Saints gives the Giants a, well, giant look at top spot. With a nice soft run home that only includes the Eagles ( in Sydney ) and North from the top 8 sides they look very well placed to take a top 4, perhaps top 2 and even top spot at the end of the minor round. A healthy percentage already ( just 0.6% behind Geelong as the best ) and a good draw, they’ve got themselves neck deep in 2016. Two names, Johnson and Shaw, both been there done that, both probably thinking one more year tops, both probably thinking this is another shot at one. They’ll both be very, very important in the next couple of months.

The Pies have strung a few decent performances together, although none of them convincing. Beating Carlton and Fremantle in their last two, including the bye means it’s been nearly a month since they’ve lost! Hey, those of us outside the 8 are looking for anything we can. Big gap to fill here. The Pies average 81 points, the Giants 109. Where will the Pies find 7 goals? Probably not from the key forwards who while offering a bale out option don’t look like threatening any goal kicking records.

Collingwood have won the last 4 over GWS, time for that to change. GWS by 67 points. ( GWS $1.09 Collingwood $7.50 )


Gold Coast v Brisbane –

Kicking myself, kicking myself as I was pretty bullish about the Suns by the time Saturday rolled around. Was some value in them last week against an untrustworthy St Kilda. The Lions had their best week for a long, long time. The bye, some sweet mercy.

The rot started in round 4 this year when the Suns were upset by their Canetoad compatriots, the Suns were sitting 3-0 when they went to the Gabba, they left 3-1 and before they could sign a deal to get away from the Gold Coast the playing group found themselves 3-10 and 2016 went the same way as 2015, the wrong way. In recent weeks the doctors room has cleared out, GAj has himself in some of the best shape he’s been in for 18 months and the group feeds off of him. They might upset more than just the Saints before the end of the year.

At the other end of the Pacific Motorway things started bad, got worse, got a little worse, then they had the bye and things went quiet. Back into it now and no hiding for the Lions, their only win for the year the one mentioned above and I can’t see them adding to that paltry tally this week. Interesting times with a bloke the calibre of Lewis Taylor, a 44 gamer asking for (reportedly) over $500,000 to stay in Brisbane. I guess they have to pay 95% of the cap and they have to pay it to someone...

Gold Coast should romp home here, they’ll be keen to atone for round 4 and will not want the cross town rivals to beat them twice on the one calendar. Gold Coast by 40 points. ( Gold Coast $1.19 Brisbane $4.80 )


Bulldogs v Richmond –

I questioned the Bulldogs last week, such is my lack of knowledge in all things AFL related, although I’m sure I’m no Robinson Crusoe when it came to thinking the Swans would be too good in Sydney. The Dogs were even better. While on Friday night in the wet at Adelaide Oval some chips buckets offered more structure than the Tigers midfield, despite them being wet and oily and full of shitty offerings. The chip buckets got soggy too.

Really felt the Bulldogs were up against it last weekend, the form leading into it wasn’t convincing, they don’t really have the big men down back to hold Franklin ( he kicked 4.5 ) and they had been under the pump around the contest and not only getting matched by lesser teams but beaten by them in some areas, then there was the capitulation at the hands of the Cats. So where did Saturday nights efforts come from? For one, good kicking helped, 13.5 is good accuracy in front of the big sticks. The Bont, while we know he’s a gun but he also showed he likes the big stage, Boyd and Morris, as they often do, controlled the back half and played their sweeping roles perfectly. Stringer with 3 straight from 5 kicks shows he doesn’t need a lot of it to impact on the game.

Where to for the Tigers? Me, personally, I don’t really care but in the spirit of wiring this I’ll look into it further. They need to throw a heap of dead wood out, go to the draft and take their medicine that will be 3-5 years in the wilderness as they develop some kids. They probably need to appoint a new coach as since his appointment in 2010 Hardwick is 66-66-2 at the helm and hasn’t got to the second week of finals in that time. Many coaches don’t get afforded that sort of time without any real crack at the flag and it’s unlikely he’ll be at the helm for their next tilt. Lucky they extended his contract early this year.

One game the Doggies won’t want to drop in the race for a top 4 berth. Bulldogs by 49. ( Bulldogs $1.21 Richmond $4.40 )



Melbourne v Fremantle –

Again last week the Dees showed they’re on the right path, they gave Adelaide a wakeup call before half time and played a more attacking style that suits them. The Dockers had the weekend at home, or in Bali, after they offered very little against the Pies in Melbourne.

Whipping boy Jack Watts has had a career best year taking his game to another level, he’s been more consistent and there’s no doubt the free flowing Melbourne game plan suits him. Hogan continues to show he’s a future star of the competition, he’s very good now and his stocks will rise in conjunction with the Demons rise up the ladder in the coming years. Jayden Hunt might also be one to watch, showed some run and carry off half back and looks to be a find.

Fremantle have never been one of my favourites, but after beating Port they went to Melbourne and put up about as meek a display as possible against Collingwood. It was terrible. They were terrible.

Off to Darwin we go for this one. The Dockers have beaten Melbourne the last 7 times they’ve played the last 5 by 54,68,43,95 and 90 points. But that counts for nothing as Fremantle aren’t who they used to be and neither are Melbourne. Melbourne should be at “home” up there in Darwin and win by 18 points. ( Melbourne $1.42 Dockers $2.90 )



Carlton v Adelaide –

Carlton pleaded guilty during the week of match slaughter, a lesser charge than match fixing in a terrible spectacle last Saturday night. The Crows went on their merry way busting through the 100 point barrier (again) on the way to defeating the Demons.

Just 6 goals from the Blues last week in a forgettable fixture against the Pies. The ball bounced from 50m arc to 50m arc as both sides turned the ball over with consummate ease as they fluffed one forward thrust after another. The Blues have dropped the ball, literally, over the last month as the long season starts to take it’s toll on the young list. They’ve lost the last 3 and I don’t hold much hope for them here.

Adelaide are looking for a club record 7 wins on the trot and haven’t lost since the “Danger” game in Adelaide in May. In that time they’ve proven to be one of the most even outfits in the competition and, dare I say it, they are looking threatening. The forward half is not only versatile but smart, led by Betts they are epitomising “team work”. They are happy to run to space to create space for others, they are happy to have little impact so long as they play their role and they are combining to make the side one of the most potent attacking sides in the game. I hate writing this.

Adelaide will just be too good here, two in a row on the G where they will hope to be later in the year. Adelaide by 38 points. ( Carlton $5.00 Adelaide $1.18 )


West Coast v North Melbourne –


This one is big, really big for both sides. The loser here might be stuck in the bottom half of the 8, perhaps the bottom half of the bottom half...yeah? The Eagles are tough to beat at home, the Kangaroos look like they’re slipping a little.

The Eagles came out of the bye with a soft one over the Bombers, 20 goals and they propped up their percentage which might be crucial come the end of season proper. They have a nice draw heading home and this one will be important, any win over fellow top 8 sides is gold at the moment. They’ve yet to beat another side in the 8, this might be their best chance. Lycett will need to be at his best to match it with Goldy in the middle and more importantly around the ground where the clearances will be crucial.

The Roos came to Adelaide before the weekend off and went home 6 goal losers, that was flattering, Adelaide had 40 scoring shots to 17 and the Kangaroos defence was all over the place. Looks like a couple of keys might be back this week, none more important than Waite who had a dry spell before going down with injury. In their last 3 games they’ve scored 12, 11 and 10 goals, not even close enough to beating the genuine contenders and the forwards in Petrie, Brown, Waite and Harvey need to start hitting the scoreboard.

Sunday game so no sides picked, will make interesting reading if Waite, Wells and Hansen pass fitness tests. Will they risk them all if they do? Might not be enough. Eagles at home by 20 points. ( Eagles $1.39 North $3.05 )


Essendon v St Kilda –

Last and mostly least twilight Sunday under the roof and I’d say you won’t be packed in like sardines if you attend this one. Mind you, the blind, I mean Bomber faithful have been sticking by their club, Saints fans might be a bit filthy after last weeks effort but they’ll still front up. Maybe.

13th v 18th and a genuine dead rubber with little interest for anyone but card carrying members and those dabbling in a multi for the weekend with the Saints as their last leg. St Kilda won handsomely earlier in the year in the corresponding fixture and I’d expect them to do the same once more. So would most people.

Disappointed with the Saints last week, I kind of expected it but hoped they would stand up and show some consistency which they didn’t, but it reflects where they are at as a club. Building on their youth platform for the seasons ahead.

St Kilda with no issues here, by 45 points. ( St Kilda ( $1.10 Essendon $7.00 )

[nuggety goodness]

Is Geelong v Sydney a season definer or what? Winner can rubber stamp a top 4 spot while the loser will fall a game behind.

Sydney lose 2 on the trot to other finals bound players and their confidence will take a hit then they face the Hawks at the SCG! A tough 2 weeks to come!

Geelong seem to beat the best and drop a couple of 'easier' ones. Watch them lose to Freo next week after accounting for the swans this week then it's crows and dogs at Simmonds... not the easiest run!

[Booney]

Swans are $2.70 in that game.....

[MW]

Port v Hawks
Friday -
Geelong v Sydney
Saturday :
GWS v Collingwood
Gold Coast v Brisbane
Bulldogs v Richmond
Melbourne v Fremantle
Sunday :
Carlton v Adelaide
West Coast v North Melbourne
Essendon v St Kilda

[bennymacca]

Finally a full round of footy again and a few decent games by the looks of it

[mighty_tiger_79]

Cats by 5 goals.
Game over at 1/4 time

[daysofourlives]

all the home teams to win

[carey]

all the home teams to win

You don't mean that!

[woodublieve12]

Cats by 5 goals.
Game over at 1/4 time

If the game is over by qtr time you'd think you'll win by more than 5 goals.

You should win comfortably after having a fortnight off

[mighty_tiger_79]

Cats by 5 goals.
Game over at 1/4 time

If the game is over by qtr time you'd think you'll win by more than 5 goals.

You should win comfortably after having a fortnight off

We will get out to an early lead and then it will remain the same margin.

Sent from my XT1562 using Tapatalk

[Corona Man]

all the home teams to win

I agree, until the final game of the round...

[LaughingKookaburra]

I reckon Port are a huge chance tonight. Normally I haven't given Port any hope because honestly their consistency to perform this year is terrible, especially against a decent side. Played footy for a long time and watched it for longer, there seemed to be a bit of insecurity from Clarko with his comments yesterday. He knows what he is doing, however not every game does he fire a barb like that. It's almost like he's internally concerned what could happen if all engines aren't firing. To be honest too, with 4 more wins on the board and 8 ladder positions, I'd expect more than 9% to seperate these teams traditionally.

I also reckon Richmond are a big chance against the Dogs. Could we see a team crash after a big interstate win against a team they shouldn't lose to? Time will tell.

[bennymacca]

all the home teams to win

I agree, until the final game of the round...

Pretty confident the crows will beat Carlton pretty easily. They look spent

[Corona Man]

all the home teams to win

I agree, until the final game of the round...

Pretty confident the crows will beat Carlton pretty easily. They look spent

Correction, until the last few games. Agree Crows should beat the Blues.

[JK]

Hawks
Geelong
GWS
Gold Coast
Bulldogs
Melbourne
Adelaide
North Melbourne
St Kilda

Coupla tough ones in there

[Spargo]

Hawks by 37 pts
Swans by 13 pts
Giants by 54 pts
Suns by 25 pts
Bulldogs by 10 pts
Demons by 16 pts
Crows by 32 pts
Roos by 8 pts
Saints by 38 pts

[carey]

Hawks - Just
Geelong
GWS
GC
Dogs
Melbourne
Cows - Premiership favorites to get up here
West Coast - just
Saints

[Rik E Boy]

Booney you wussbag not tipping Port against the Hawks at home.

regards,

REB

[Rik E Boy]

all the home teams to win

Can't have Carlton against Adelaide surely.

regards,

REB

[PatowalongaPirate]

Hawks by 44
Cats by 9
GWS by 51
Suns by 22
Dogs by 59
Dockers by 21
Crows by 60
Eagles by 17
Saints by 80