Circum XVII

[Booney]

One huge match up tonight and after that it’s top 8 v bottom 10 and not a lot of interest down the list. Some question marks over the Kangaroos and the Giants who both need to right the ship this weekend and Geelong need to bounce back.

No talk of players girlfriends this week, how good is that? The big talk is around a glove, not OJ Simpson, but Trav Clokes glove and the make up of the fixture in the final round. Me, I think the week off before the finals start is a momentum killer and some sides will like it while others won’t. Finish top 4, win the first week and it will be one game in 3 weeks. Might not be ideal?


TNF – Sydney v Hawthorn

Two wins by the top of the table sides last week and a massive Thursday night fixture to kick of a round that involves just one match between top 8 combatants. This one. The Swans ( at $3.25 thank you very much ) over powered Dangerfield to win at Cat Park as the unsociable Hawks led be evil midget master mind Clarkson came to Adelaide and rolled Port.

Sydney were super impressive over the Cats, they jumped to a lead early only to have Pat the Cat drag Geelong back into it but from there on in the Swans midfield controlled the game and when they didn’t the back line held firm, led by Rampe and Aliir off half back they kept the Cats to just 9 goals after they had 3 at ¼ time. This week’s Rising Star nominee Callum Mills finally got the NAB nod after being one of the favourites to win the award even without being nominated. There was something in the Woman’s Day about Jack, his Mrs, his Mum and Dad and it had nothing to do with the game but got several mentions from McAvaney on the broadcast. Just call the game, Bruce, just call the game. Richards played the unusual role of key forward to keep the Geelong backs honest and not allowing them to go 2 or 3 up on Franklin.

Clarkson, that evil little bastard threw a bomb at Port at Tullamarine and it went off as he expected. He said Port had been too physical early for his charges in recent encounters and challenged his side to take Port on in that area, it was actually at Port challenging them to play the body not the ball and early Port had the ascendency, the Hawks then got control of the midfield and when they got the ball deep even though they didn’t score they locked Port in and their rolling zone kept Port from scoring. Hodge excellent across half back, Lewis and Mitchell do as they do in the middle and after having the previous week off Rioli looked to be covering the ground better than the rest of the pack.

Extremely difficult one to pick here. Promises to be a cracking match up. Can you tip against either side? Hardly. Sydney just because it’s in Sydney, by 11 points. ( Sydney $1.60 Hawks $2.35 )


FNF – Fremantle v Geelong

Fremantle looked like they were playing with some purpose for a few weeks and then rolled over to Collingwood before the break and gave Melbourne little opposition last week. Geelong looked to Pat to lift them, he did but one man, even when that good, can’t carry a side. The Swans holding the Cats to just 9 majors.

Can’t see the Purple Haze getting up for this one, they know they’ll be out gunned by a top 4 contender looking to get back on the straight and narrow and with only 8 and 5 goals in the last two weeks they don’t look like kicking a winning score, then again, this is the year of the big upset and tipsters nightmares. The last time these two sides met was round 2 last year at Cat Park when the Dockers started their massive run of wins with a 44 point win, but that was led by Fyfe, Sandilands and Johnson, none of whom will front up this week. Makes life hard.

What to make of the Cats? Are they pretenders? I don’t think so, they’ve got enough players on the park with a premiership medallion to know they have a sniff at another one if they put their very best on the park, they’ve been good against top 8 sides ( bar last week ) and have dropped games to sides who shouldn’t get near them. It’s either systematic ( coaching style ) or mental application. One is hard to fix the other is damning. If it’s the coaching style ( which I get the feeling Cats fans think it is ) then that’s a tough fix, if it’s between the ears then shoulders back, chest out and get on with it. It’s time for the game face. The front half is being exposed by Hawkins and Motlops lack of form and they can’t fix a second big man in the line up forward as Clark, Stanley and Kersten have had chances but not taken them.

This should be an easy win for the Cats, but we’ve said that 4 times this year only to taste the funk of one of our own feet in our mouths. Surely not? Geelong by 23 points. ( Freo $5.25 Cats $1.17 )



Richmond v Essendon –

The first of several dead rubbers this round and one that won’t evoke the emotion or atmosphere of the now traditional Dreamtime at the G that was this corresponding fixture earlier in the year. The Tigers battled pretty well against the Dogs to eventually be undone by a touch of class and the Bombers did much the same against the Sainters. Almost but not quite for both of them as they went down by 10 and 9 points respectively.

The Tigers threw everything at the Dogs last week, they hit the lead in the middle of the second term, they got out to nearly 3 goals a couple of times but gave up the last 3 goals of the game to go down by 10 points. In all the in-and-at-‘em stats they matched the Bulldogs who just a week earlier carved up the Swans. The Tigers won contested possessions, just got pipped in tackles and clearances and I50’s which is surprising considering their effort against Port just a week ago. Dusty Martin has cemented himself as a bona fide star of the competition this year, again he was outstanding inside the contest. 38 disposals, 8 clearances, 5 tackles, 6 I50 and 3 R50. Can be a bit of a one man show though. Rance controlled the back half again and Cotchin got some pill. Hampson came back in and made it clear he’s the No 1 ruckman ahead of Maric and the dropped hot potato.

Similar sort of tale for the Bombers. They got the first one of the night and with the first to of the 3rd quarter got the lead only to concede 5 more for the quarter then again in the last snaffled the first three to lead by one sausage roll with 15 minutes to play. The Saints kicked the next four to snuff out any chance of an upset and the Essendon faithful would have thought W #2 might have been on the cards prior to that. Merrett was good in the guts with 36 and 7 clearances, the traditionally named Orazio Fantasia stepped up in Multicultural Round and served up wonderful souvlaki topped off with 3 majors from 13 touches. Young full back Michael Hartley looked a player who might get more opportunity in the future.

Can’t see the Bombers winning this one BUT the Tigers are capable of anything and then nothing. Richmond by 25 points and look for Joe Daniher vs Alex Rance battle this week. ( Richmond $1.14 Essendon $5.75 )



North Melbourne v Port Adelaide –

North went west last week, the result went south so they flew east and headed home. I still can’t work out why they have red in their off field merchandise either, but that’s for another day. Or now. Who knows? Port had the unsociable Hawks come to town and class prevailed, Port showed something but came away empty handed.

The Kangas had a chance to keep in touch with the top 4 last week by going to Perth and beating the Eagles but failed again to hit the scoreboard. Just 11 goals and since Waite dried up and Wells went out injured the side has struggled with avenues to goal. Brown is working up and down the ground still and offering a target but the Dish is not giving much at all. Goal less in rounds 9 and 10 and just 7 in the 5 matches since is a dry patch the Roos need him to get out of if they’re to figure deep in the finals series. That’s 7 goals in his last 7 outings. Brown has 7 in the last 3 weeks in comparison. Waite hasn’t played since round 12 against Geelong and went goal less in his 3 outings prior to that. The big men aren’t firing and North are on a 4 game losing streak because of it.

Port started well, got the first couple and then got sucked in by Clarksons comments and went some body instead of the ball and the Hawks lapped it up. Again disposal efficiency went down hill as the Hawks zone locked Port deep in defence. The skills from deep in the back half were terrible and gifted goals to the Hawks at crucial times. Robbie Gray was at his very best with 29 touches, 10 clearances, 6 tackles, 6 I50s and 2 goals. Excellent effort in a losing side. Wingard kicked 3 from limited opportunities and young backman Darcy Byrne-Jones ( DBJ ) once again looked at home in a big game. He might be the find of 2016. Ebert, Boak and Hartlett all left the ground at different stages sore, will they come up? Jonas has served his time so Port get at least one tall backman into the line up.

You would think the Roos win this, but with 4 losses on the trot and confidence a bit low they might not be a monty. I’ll be there for this one, Carn Ports! Kangas by 11 points unless I have something to do with it.
( Kangas $1.39 Port $3.00 )



Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast –

The Doggies were made to earn it by the Tigers, I guess that could be expected after the two sides previous outings. The Dogs beat Sydney and the Tigers were limp against Port. The wretched run for the Suns keeps going, despite a solid win over the Lions they lose more soldiers.

I questioned the Dogs a couple of weeks back and they made me eat my words, won’t be the first or last time I’m sure. One of the sides fighting for the double chance they’ve shown they can match it with the best of them. Strange one last week with all the keys stats pretty even which would suggest the Dogs would have been too good for the Tigers, but it wasn’t to be. The one stat they got burnt on was hitouts, Hampson got on top of Roughead and the Doggies just broke even on stoppages where they normally dominate. They get an easier opponent this week and they’ll want to get that key area back going their way ASAP. Young Libba copped a ripper and might be a no show in this one.

The Suns can’t take a trick, can they? They win a couple on the trot and look like they’re getting some soldiers back only to see Rischitelli do down early with an ACL and then with just minutes to go GAj tackles in the middle of the field and pops his left wing again. Both of them gone for the year and obviously Rischitelli until sometime next year. Makes the retention of O’Meara and Prestia even more important. On the positive side Lynch continues to build as a key forward the whole competition will fear and 2 metre Peter Wright looks like a player. With 5 majors each last week, despite the opposition, that’s a sound return and perhaps a sign of the future forward line of the Suns. If it is, they’ve got something to work with.

Off to Cazalys in Cairns for this one, been a little untidy there on a family holiday once, nice place that makes you thirsty. They don’t understand the joke “They write XXXX on the cans because if they wrote SHIT it wouldn’t sell.” Funny Northerners. The Dogs to consolidate with the outs for the Suns too big to cover. Dogs by 29. ( Dogs $1.18 Suns $5 )



Adelaide v Collingwood -

Same, same for Adelaide last week as they again clear the 100 point barrier and roll the Blues my an even 10 majors. The Pies! Where did that sticky glove come from?!?! The Pies were unbackable outsiders in the clash with GWS yet somehow came away with the choccies.

Getting a terrible taste in the mouth here in SA. It tastes a little like the war years of 97 and 98 and to be honest, it’s that long ago that we don’t mention the war here anymore. Not even the winners make note of it such is the length of time between victorious battles. They just keep winning, not only winning but winning with ease against almost all comers. They keep breaking the 100 point mark with ease, the back line is holding strong and the midfield is spreading the load. The midfield are playing a different game to the rest of the top sides, they don’t roll back deep in defence as they back the backs to win the ball, then numbers, plenty of numbers across half back allows the forwards to spread and score. Someone please work it out.

Fair dinkum unbackable last weekend. The Pies had no right to go to Spotless and beat the Giants and when the Giants got out beyond 4 goals in the middle of the second quarter it was pretty much game over....then the Magpies go on a run 16 goals to 7 after ¼ time and the Pies win by 5 goals. Cloke returned to some form with 4, White chipped in with 3 and returning Fasolo picked up where he left off when he went out injured with 2. The biggest turn around in individual form though was from man-bun-wearing Grundy. He’s been ordinary much of the year but was BOG and kept Mumford out of the game. 26 touches and 28 hitouts. His best game for many moons.

Big win for the Pies over much more fancied opposition last weekend, but I can’t see them doing it again this week in Adelaide. Adelaide by 35 points. ( Adelaide $1.17 Pies $5 )



Carlton v West Coast –

The ol’ navy Blues look a tired lot now, a big loss to Adelaide last week didn’t help the pep in the step. The Eagles got a top 8 side at home and saluted over the Kangaroos in a fairly uninspiring affair considering what was at stake.

They fired some shots early but the long season is taking it’s toll on the Blues. With that the impressive zone Bolton set up falls apart more often and the front half is relying too heavily on the one man target in Casboult. Andreas Everitt had a purple patch that coincided with that of the Blues when he kicked 10 goals in 4 weeks, since then it’s been 2 in 5 matches and it’s a reflection of the sides inability to hit the scoreboard. So while the zone worked they got repeat F50 entries, now the zone is breaking down they bleed in defence. Need a key forward to help Casboult and give some mobility in the big man department. Cloke?

West coast finally got their top 8 scalp they’d not been able to get all year, the Kangaroos with no Wells or Waite were easy pickings in the end. Big man Lycett can count his lucky stars he got away with a head high bump on Zeibell, it looked like it was a game or two the moment it happened. Shuey, Priddis, Gaff and Masten all did the midfield grunt work and broke even despite Goldstein smashing Lycett in the ruck duels. As the Eagles do at home they move the ball more by foot than by hand and cover the ground quickly to give Kennedy (4), Cripps (3) and LeCras (2) room to do their work.

The Eagles need to keep winning to give themselves a home advantage during the finals, they should win this one. West coast too many forward options, by 34 points. ( Carlton $5.50 West Coast $1.15 )



St Kilda v Melbourne –

Dead set dead rubber here, both sides out of finals contention and both sides up and down over the journey. Melbourne coming back from Darwin can be expected to be a little flat and the Saints after just holding out the Bombers can be expected to be a little keen to atone.

The Saints had that big win over the Cats then flopped against the Suns and had all but 5 minutes to save themselves over the Bombers, 3 of the last 4 goals and they really didn’t put the Bombers away.

The Dees just dominated over the Dockers in Darwin. Over 130 more disposals and 20 more tackles meant they always had the game in their keeping. Hogan and Viney both excellent.

Very tough one to pick this, the Demons on ballers or the Saints tall forwards, who will be more damaging? I’m backing the Saints big men to be the difference. St Kilda by 14 points. ( St Kilda $2.05 Melbourne $1.80 )




Brisbane v GWS –

The last of the weekend’s games and if GWS have got one genuine bone in their bodies they will this one with aplomb. That’s if they indeed are genuine.

The Lions lost the Q Clash last week but did something they haven’t done often this year, broke the 100 point mark with 17 majors. Hipwood ( who? ) with 4, McStay and Rich among a few with 2 each. Skipper Rockliff did what he could with 28 touches and 10 tackles, young Mathieson and Mayes also good in the middle with some clearances and tackles showing they are prepared to get their hands dirty.

The Giants were meek after ¼ time against the Pies, if it wasn’t them taking the foot off the pedal then they sure did a good job of making it look that way. 4 goals up and ¼ and stretching it in the early parts of the second meant it was 4 points coming their way, then they stopped tackling ( lost the count 80-60 ) , they started grizzling to the umpires and then they Pies had the momentum. Wasn’t a good look for a side who could have been top of the table at the end of the minor round. They still can, but they need to play like they want to be there. Now.

GWS need to make a statement here, I think they will. GWS by 55 points. ( Brisbane $11.00 GWS $1.04 )

[carey]

Grand Final Preview- Sydney just at the SCG
Geelong
Richmond
Roos
Dogs
Cows
West Coast
Melbourne
GWS

[RustyCage]

Carlton will be wearing orange socks this weekend against West Coast



"Carlton Respects"

With advice from leading family violence prevention organisation Our Watch, and the Luke Batty Foundation, the Club will raise awareness about the prevalence of family violence ahead of its Round 17 game against West Coast at the MCG.

Blues' CEO Steven Trigg said that the initiative was aimed at bringing awareness to family violence in the community.

“There are some alarming statistics around family violence,” Trigg said.

“In Victoria alone, police attend a family violence incident every eight minutes. This is simply unacceptable and we hope to send a strong message that this behaviour cannot be tolerated.

“As a football club, we understand that we are very much in the frame as social influencers. A primary prevention of family violence is through improved gender equality, a notion which aligns with our club as we strive to be leaders in this area.”

http://www.triplem.com.au/melbourne/spo ... s-weekend/

[Booney]

Some good money on offer this round I reckon :

Hawks $3.75 1-24
Roos $3-15 1-24

[Corona Man]

Nice previews Booney, another enjoyable read, thanks for taking the time.

Hawks is a tempter tonight at the $3.75. May have a dabble at that.... and if I do, that will be the ultimate kiss of death!

Sounds like a few over to Melb this week to watch the footy. My lad is off with a group of mates to see Bombers Vs Tigers (Why would ya?) and I think they are buttering up on the Sunday with the Saints Vs Dees.... I say again....why?

I need to get back on track in my footy tips - still 6 behind the leader in both my comps, too far back I reckon.

FWIW

Swans
Geelong
Richmond
North
Dogs
Cows
Eagles
Dees
GWS

[Q.]

The biggest turn around in individual form though was from man-bun-wearing Grundy. He’s been ordinary much of the year but was BOG and kept Mumford out of the game. 26 touches and 28 hitouts. His best game for many moons.

Grundy been in career best form for about a month now....no coincidence we've then been winning. Will be interesting to see how he fares against Jacobs.

[Booney]

The biggest turn around in individual form though was from man-bun-wearing Grundy. He’s been ordinary much of the year but was BOG and kept Mumford out of the game. 26 touches and 28 hitouts. His best game for many moons.

Grundy been in career best form for about a month now....no coincidence we've then been winning. Will be interesting to see how he fares against Jacobs.

Was good against Carlton the week before, only ok against Fremantle with no ruckman and before that smacked by Gawn and barely broke even with Trengove in the loss to Port. Not that convincing.

[Corona Man]

That reminds me @Carey have you sorted out your dubious travel plans from the beating heart of Melbourne, that is Avalon?

[Q.]

The biggest turn around in individual form though was from man-bun-wearing Grundy. He’s been ordinary much of the year but was BOG and kept Mumford out of the game. 26 touches and 28 hitouts. His best game for many moons.

Grundy been in career best form for about a month now....no coincidence we've then been winning. Will be interesting to see how he fares against Jacobs.

Was good against Carlton the week before, only ok against Fremantle with no ruckman and before that smacked by Gawn and barely broke even with Trengove in the loss to Port. Not that convincing.

Was also good against the bye

[Booney]

The biggest turn around in individual form though was from man-bun-wearing Grundy. He’s been ordinary much of the year but was BOG and kept Mumford out of the game. 26 touches and 28 hitouts. His best game for many moons.

Grundy been in career best form for about a month now....no coincidence we've then been winning. Will be interesting to see how he fares against Jacobs.

Was good against Carlton the week before, only ok against Fremantle with no ruckman and before that smacked by Gawn and barely broke even with Trengove in the loss to Port. Not that convincing.

Was also good against the bye

Rounds out a solid month. Career best, as you note.

[Rik E Boy]

Nice previews Booney, another enjoyable read, thanks for taking the time.

Hawks is a tempter tonight at the $3.75. May have a dabble at that.... and if I do, that will be the ultimate kiss of death!

Sounds like a few over to Melb this week to watch the footy. My lad is off with a group of mates to see Bombers Vs Tigers (Why would ya?) and I think they are buttering up on the Sunday with the Saints Vs Dees.... I say again....why?

I need to get back on track in my footy tips - still 6 behind the leader in both my comps, too far back I reckon.

FWIW

Swans
Geelong
Richmond
North
Dogs
Cows
Eagles
Dees
GWS

My lad is a Dees supporter (again why? LOL) so I watch Melbourne every week and have for years. The St Kilda v Melbourne match up is actually a good match up. The last few games in particular have been quite entertaining affairs. For some reason though, the Demons are the Saints' bitch, particularly at Eddie Head. I'd be changing that tip mate Saints all the way and I reckon another close, watchable game will be on the cards.

regards,

REB

[Corona Man]

Nice previews Booney, another enjoyable read, thanks for taking the time.

Hawks is a tempter tonight at the $3.75. May have a dabble at that.... and if I do, that will be the ultimate kiss of death!

Sounds like a few over to Melb this week to watch the footy. My lad is off with a group of mates to see Bombers Vs Tigers (Why would ya?) and I think they are buttering up on the Sunday with the Saints Vs Dees.... I say again....why?

I need to get back on track in my footy tips - still 6 behind the leader in both my comps, too far back I reckon.

FWIW

Swans
Geelong
Richmond
North
Dogs
Cows
Eagles
Dees
GWS

My lad is a Dees supporter (again why? LOL) so I watch Melbourne every week and have for years. The St Kilda v Melbourne match up is actually a good match up. The last few games in particular have been quite entertaining affairs. For some reason though, the Demons are the Saints' bitch, particularly at Eddie Head. I'd be changing that tip mate Saints all the way and I reckon another close, watchable game will be on the cards.

regards,

REB

Good call REB, I will re-consider the Saints v Dees game..... Dees travelling back from Up North as well, may be a factor. Saints are just all over the place, which is not unusual at Moorabbin, or Seaford, or wherever they are this week.....

[Rik E Boy]

Melbourne hasn't beaten the Saints since 2006 and their record at Ethiad is the worst in the league.

regards,

REB

[valleys07]

Melbourne hasn't beaten the Saints since 2006 and their record at Ethiad is the worst in the league.

regards,

REB

Correct. Have won 1 from their last 24 at Etihad, and have lost the last 13 against St.Kilda dating back to the 2006 Elimination Final.

I'll be on the Saints this week.

[Booney]

Doesn't matter, but Fasolo out for Collingwood.

[carey]

That reminds me @Carey have you sorted out your dubious travel plans from the beating heart of Melbourne, that is Avalon?

All sorted C-Man. Getting picked up from the Airport 20mins after landing should have my first pot and winner on the nags a further 25mins later!

[bennymacca]

changed my tip about 3 times already in the melbourne st kilda game

[Corona Man]

changed my tip about 3 times already in the melbourne st kilda game

I opted for the Saints in the end.... mind you, the Dee's are due.

[bennymacca]

changed my tip about 3 times already in the melbourne st kilda game

I opted for the Saints in the end.... mind you, the Dee's are due.

I think melbourne are a much better team. But they are both inconsistent as hell, and the Dee's record is hard to ignore

[Corona Man]

changed my tip about 3 times already in the melbourne st kilda game

I opted for the Saints in the end.... mind you, the Dee's are due.

I think melbourne are a much better team. But they are both inconsistent as hell, and the Dee's record is hard to ignore

I agree the Dee's are a better team, I like the way they go about it. I probably need to "sneak" a couple in my tips, so have gone St's in an attempt to sneak one, against what would have been my better judgement. I'll blame REB if it all turns to sh!t