Round 2 Preview: Port Adelaide vs. Sydney- Saturday April 11th @ Adelaide Oval
Games Played- 24 (Port Adelaide 7, Sydney 17)
Meetings at Adelaide Oval - 1 (Port Adelaide 0, Sydney 0)
Last time they met:
2014 Round 20: Port Adelaide 7.16.58 def. by Sydney 12.12.84 @ Adelaide Oval.
Last 5- Port Adelaide 1, Sydney 4.
Redden back against the Red n White.
679 days between games for most players would spell the end of their careers, which is what makes Jarrad Redden’s return to AFL football on Saturday night so very special. Hinkley has even admitted there were fears Jarrad wouldn’t make it back to the top flight, so I can’t wait to see him run out on Saturday night, such as my admiration for his resilience and determination.
It’s not often Round 2 is tagged as a “crucial game”, but such is the nature of the draw for Port- we simply can’t afford to go 0-2, as it could quickly turn to 0-5 and the season almost over before it began. Heading into this one, it looms as a fairly even battle. Both sides came off tough Round 1 encounters, with Port’s 6 day break perhaps offset by the tough conditions faced at ANZ stadium last Saturday. A lot has been spoken about the individual moments that cost Port Adelaide the game against Fremantle, with Pavlich, Sandilands and Fyfe single-handedly able to will Fremantle across the line. At no stage last week did Fremantle kick more than 2 consecutive goals against us, perhaps a sign that we have matured with football in hand, are able to withstand intense pressure from the opposition when momentum swings their way and showed that we have a Plan B and are prepared to slow down the play, rather than run and gun for 120 minutes.
Summary
Round 13 2014 turned out to be one of the games of the season, the locals treated to Buddy Franklin at his scintillating best, with a 4 goal 2nd half (including 2 goal of the year contenders in the last quarter) proving the difference in a 4 point win to the Swans, handing Port what was only their 2nd loss of the season to date. The return fixture at Adelaide Oval in round 20 coincided with a late season form slump for the Power, with the returning Jackson Trengove unable to arrest the tide as an inaccurate Port Adelaide went down by 26 points.
It will again become a battle of the game plans, with Sydney renowned for numbers behind the footy and capitalising on the turnover, hurting sides over the back where Franklin and Tippett are almost impossible to stop when allowed to compete in 1 on 1 contests. Port’s composure with ball in hand will be crucial to the result tomorrow, as 2014 saw Sydney rank #1 for R50 to I50 transfers (Port ranked #2), as well as ranking #1 for forcing forward half turnovers and #1 in the league for scores from turnovers. Despite Essendon’s dominance over Sydney last week, Sydney still managed 60 I50’s, which with dry conditions expected at Adelaide Oval, could result in a monster scoreline if allowed the same number this week. For Port Adelaide, the key is decision making, picking the right moment to attack vs. defend and speed of ball movement. Last week they went at 79% for disposal efficiency, but the stat that hurt Port as far as scoreboard involvement was the number of possessions per goal (39), allowing Fremantle ample time to stack numbers behind the footy and control the influence of our forwards with intercept marking or outnumbering at the contest. With the aforementioned stats, this will play right into Sydney’s hands, so Port need quick transition into the F50 giving Redden/Ryder/Schulz/Westhoff opportunities at one on one’s with an undersized Sydney back 6 by comparison. Port Adelaide must attempt to match Sydney in the contested stakes. Kennedy (24) and Parker (17) played big roles in Sydney registering the highest number of contested possessions for the round with 176. Port must curtail the contested influence of these 2 to wrestle midfield dominance.
Key Matchup’s
Jack Hombsch vs. Lance Franklin- These two had a very entertaining battle in Round 20, Hombsch in fairness holding Buddy to one of his more modest performances of the 2014 season , kicking just 2 goals amongst 15 disposals, Hombsch rated amongst the Power’s best that evening. With Carlisle not capable of matching Bud aerobically (evidenced in round 13), Hombsch must be the starting option, as he is the only Power player capable of matching Franklin for speed, strength and aerobic capacity as the all-round ideal match-up.
Ollie Wines vs. Josh Kennedy- 2 contested ball beasts go head to head this week in what promises to be a ripping contest, which will surely shape the victor in clearances and midfield dominance. Wines with 27 touches (12 contested) 5 clearances and 2 goals last week, up against Kennedy with 30 touches (24 contested) and 9 clearances. Josh Kennedy finished 2nd in 2014 for contested possessions, and is catalyst for Sydney getting the footy into the hands of Parker, Jetta, Shaw, Hannebery and Jack to release on the outside and thrust Sydney forward. A match deciding match-up I feel.
The 6 points (AFL website)
1. The Swans' two wins over Port Adelaide in 2014 were thanks to their stars; in round 13 at the SCG Lance Franklin dominated with 23 possessions and five goals. In round 20 at Adelaide Oval Josh Kennedy had 34 possessions.
2. The Swans have dominated Port Adelaide in recent seasons, winning 10 of their past 11 matches, including a club-record eight straight wins from 2006-12.
3. This is the 25th contest between the sides and it's the Swans who hold a clear advantage with 17 wins to the Power’s seven.
4. In round one Port Adelaide led the AFL in possessions with 390, and uncontested possessions with 284; in contrast the Swans had the most contested possessions with 176.
5. No player had more contested possessions in the opening round than the Swans' Josh Kennedy (24). Luke Parker also had 17 contested.
6. Lance Franklin remains the game's best key forward according to Official AFL Player Ratings. With almost 572 points to his name he's miles ahead of former Hawthorn teammate Jarryd Roughead (529.3 points)
Team Line-up’s
Port Adelaide:
FB: Hombsch CarlisleTrengove
HB: Pittard Jonas Broadbent
C: Polec Ebert White
HF: Gray Westhoff Wingard
FF: Hartlett Schulz Neade
R: Ryder Boak Wines
I/C: Monfries Impey Cornes Redden
Sydney:
FB: Shaw Richards Rampe
HB: Smith Grundy McVeigh
C: Jetta Jack Bird
HF: Lloyd Franklin Hannebery
FF: Tippett Reid Rohan
R: Pyke Kennedy Parker
I/C: Goodes Heeney Laidler Towers
Valley’s Final Thoughts:
Redden will prove to be an important inclusion this week, ability to get some quality tap work in and around stoppages, as well as forcing Sydney to draw a quality defensive opponent up forward. Ryder will benefit massively for the run last week and will see more time up forward given the selection of a designated 2nd ruckman in the side, hopefully creating havoc for a Sydney backline stretched for height beyond Richards and Grundy. Port Adelaide won’t have the luxury of space to perfectly execute their running game, they will have to stem the flow during periods of the game, with Sydney having passages during our last 2 meetings where we were unable to curtail an onslaught. Sydney got lucky last week. Essendon ran empty after 3 quarters of high pressure footy, allowing the Swans to pinch the 4 points. Sydney are traditionally slow starters, but are 2-0 at Adelaide oval. With a full house packed into Adelaide Oval to cheer the Power on, as well as Jackson Trengove’s 100th game hopefully a source of motivation for the boys, Port to even the ledger in a classic.
Prediction- Port Adelaide by 13 points.
Nicely done! It's always a pleasure reading your work.