by Booney » Thu Mar 24, 2016 10:22 am
Round 1 – So who is that bloke?
Changes, ch...ch....ch....changes. Moves galore, no form to work with, here it is!
Hard to line up any real form lines from the NAB stuff, makes round 1 tipping tough especially in the evenly matched fixtures where a couple of new faces or a couple who started preseason a little late can make the difference between a win and a loss.
First week might not be kind to tipsters and it’s rough with half the sides yet to be named, but we’ve got to have a crack anyway.
Richmond v Carlton -
And so it starts with an AFL manufactured Mock-buster once again. The butt of everyone’s jokes Tigers against the Ctrl+Alt+Del reset Navy Blues. When the final siren blew to end season 2015 we had 173 days ahead of us before we again went into season proper, Gill and his mates give us this. At least it’s out of the way and in reality it could be anyone and we’d be watching it.
Richmond maintain their fine tradition of recruiting from the fringe, Yarran from Carlton ( that’s a coup, picking a bloke up who looked good at Carlton ), Moore from Port ( who wasn’t in Ports best side most of the year ) while brining in one who looks worth getting in another Rioli, continuing the legacy of the Rioli stars of years gone by. They’ve not got past the first week of finals 3 years in a row and the coach ( with a 66-64-2 win-loss-draw record ) gets another 2 years on his contract! I wish I worked for Richmond, money for jam regardless of how well you’re going.
While in Lygon St it’s all about the new coach. Brendan Bolton, smiling all through his time at Carlton will be hard pressed to keep that chirpy disposition throughout 2016 and beyond. I reakon his Mrs will notice a change in him, won’t be a good one. Carlton went nuts in the summer, they moved in a classroom of kids from GWS on the back of S.O.S saying so, #1 pick Weitering looks like a #1 pick should, ready to play and full of class, if he turns out better than their other 3 #1 picks he’ll be handy at worst. All going well his 200th game will be a final, probably his first.
Can’t see the Blues having learned the Bolton play book just yet, if they have they won’t be able to execute it. Richmond will have too many options in the front half for the under sized and under manned Blues defence, by 35 points and the Tiger train will once again be “all aboard”.
Melbourne v GWS –
Undefeated since 2015 the Demons come into 2016 with some real momentum while GWS have been a bit of a sleeper through the summer, we all know how teenagers can sleep all day and night but who knew they could sleep all summer!
The Dee’s lost a couple of players over the summer in Howe and Toumpas, replaced them with Kennedy from the Pies, Melksham from the Bombers and swiftly lost him again and added Tom Bugg from GWS to the midfield. They had some signs of improvement in 2015, then things slipped into same same as they won one of the last 7 to end up 7-15 after a promising patch mid season that saw them upset the finals bound Bulldogs and the Catters at the Cattery. Roos and now Goodwin have built the base, time to start fighting gravity and move upwards.
Meanwhile the boys out West have topped up some top end talent by taking Stevie J when the he was let out of the Cattery one night and wasn’t let back in, Dawson Simpson must have walked out at the same time and they’ve stuck together. A big loss in Treloar to the Pies, Bugg and Hampton showed a little while the youngsters Lamb, Phillips, Plowman ( that’s my name it’s Mr Plow ) and Sumner all answered the SOS from S.O.S and find themselves at Carlton. 11-11 in ’15 and into their 5th year many expect the Giants to push for finals action in ’16.
While Melbourne haven’t lost this year and the Giants have been scratchy I think one is ahead of the other, by some way and expect a Giants win here, even without the suspended Cameron. Tough one to pick as Melbourne hit the ground running and a season opener at the G in front of the home crowd might give them enough....I don’t think so. GWS just for mine with Stevie J relishing a return to the G where he’s performed on much bigger stages than Melbourne v GWS. Giants 9 points with no confidence.
Gold Coast v Essendon –
Well in all finally came about and the human pin cushions had their day in a Swiss Court and it wasn’t good news. With 12 current Bombers banned for 12 months they spent the summer scampering around for delisted/retired/fringe players who wanted another crack at AFL footy. Some will stand up, some wont. The Suns had some big outs ( literally ) and a couple of handy ins. 2016 shapes as a big year for the GC boys.
Up on the Gold Coast things have changed, Dixon,Smith and Bennell left, Swallow and O’Meara are both out as “indefinite” and Gaz and Prestia come in under done. The addition of Grant (WB) and Rosa (WCE) adds some extra depth to the midfield rotations and bring some experience with them. Throw into that mix the exciting Callum Ah Chee and they look to have bolstered the running department, good timing with a couple of young guns unable to get up to speed.
What can you say about the blokes at Windy Hill? They’ve had a couple of handy additions with Jamar, Stokes, Crowley, Kelly all having another year to cover for the suspended group but I don’t think anyone can expect these tired legs to carry the kids through 23 weeks of footy. Might not be the worst thing for them getting an undermanned Suns first up, but it won’t get any easier for them.
Hard to see the Bombers winning many, if any this year and I can’t see it starting this week. Gold Coast have loads to play for early in ’16, pride being the first and foremost and they will get the new version of Essendon by 27 points.
North Melbourne v Adelaide –
North haven’t won round 1 for 6 years, Adelaide giving it to them from all angles at Adelaide Oval last year in their only 2015 encounter. Work that out, they played once last year in round 1?
North were pretty quiet in the off season, no real big names in or out suggesting they are happy with what they’ve got which, in the ever evolving world of AFL football might be standing still and you can’t afford to do that, or can they? Again, they’ll look to Harvey, Petrie, Swallow, Waite and the rejuvenated Wells to set the example. They’ll stretch Adelaide a little with Brown, Petrie, Waite all forward of centre and Adelaide will need to play the third tall man back to cover that.
Adelaide had a couple of changes, they lost one handy player, Sam Kerridge to Carlton and a couple of others to retirements and the Geelong surf. Looks like Seedsman from Collingwood will slot straight in and Milera, drafted from local club Central Districts might play round 1 so some new faces are in among the old. Again they’ll rely heavily on big man Sam Jacobs, Walker, Betts and Jenkins forward and Talia in the back half.
Can Adelaide cover the loss of Kerridge around the ball, he was a contested ball beast. I think they’ll struggle and this one is hard to pick. I think Adelaide have hit the preseason hard knowing they need to bust out of the gates in the first month or so to be any chance of being in the positive come round 10. Adelaide by 14 points.
Sydney v Collingwood
They like to move it, move it. They like to move it, move it. So what? Eddie has a sulk about anything, his wife must be jealous that he’s the one throwing the tantys over bugger all all the time. Sydney finally get away from ANZ, no more bolts on the ground for them and Eddie wants compensation for the ‘Pies fans heading up to Sydney, with the 4 weeks notice, with the game being played just 22kms away. Pfft.
Sydney maintained their recent record of recruiting big blokes at the end of the year by targeting Callum Sinclair from the Eagles, he’s some ruck support for Tippett who finished off ’15 in really strong form as the lead ruckman. They welcome back Bud from his personal issues and look like another Academy rookie in Callum Mills will be another excellent reason for Eddie to wind up the soap box again. Goodes, Pyke and Shaw all retired so they’ve lost an all time great, a big man who made the most of his time in the game and a chirpy little smart arse from half back.
Collingwood also joined in the off season merry go round by taking Aish from Brisbane, Howe from Melbourne, Treloar from the Giants and didn’t lose much with Kennedy and Seedsman the only names you’ll know on their “out” list. Bucks gets an extended deal, the media seem to be all over the ‘Pies as a real mover this year but I can’t see why. They’ll still laugh at their own as Cloke sprays them then jeer at White when he takes a mark. De Goey, he’s classy, Witts looks ready to help Grundy and Moore has lots of expectation on his shoulders.
Swannies will be keen to welcome Bud back into the fray, they’ll be too classy in the big man department against the Pies for mine, Sydney by 17 points back where they like to be at the SCG. ( Say that in your head like it’s Richie saying it....RIP, Rich. )
Bulldogs v Fremantle –
The Bulldogs targeted and landed Matt Suckling from the Hawks in the summer, his long left leg should suit their running game plan perfectly and give Stringer and co. up front some swift movement from the back half while Fremantle, much like the Kangas, didn’t make many big moves over the summer. Bennell from the Gold Coast was the only big “in” while Crowley and McPharlin are two familiar names we won’t see in purple again.
The Dogs were the side of ’15 ( with Adelaide ) and took the open running game plan of the modern day to a new level. They grew more and more confident as the year went on and found themselves close to a top 4 berth with a couple of weeks to go. Stringer, Bontempelli, Dahlhaus and Wood all had break out years to establish themselves in the core group of the young Dogs line up. Johannisen, Redpath, Dickson, Hunter and Boyd will be looking to do the same in 2016, if they do, they’ll be hard to beat.
Finding themselves so far clear on top that they could play with selections in the last few rounds the Dockers had an awful finals series. They fell over the line against an under manned Sydney in Perth, had the week off sitting and waiting and then had no answers for the eventual premier, Hawthorn, as they lost the preliminary final by 27 in Perth. Makes it all the more interesting that they were so inactive during the trade period, either they didn’t have the money ( not sure how with some big names in the last year of some deals ) or they think they’ve got the group to get them there again.
Under the roof at Etihad I think the Dogs should be too fast for the Dockers in round 1, then again the Dockers can stifle teams as good as anyone can. Not this one, Dogs by 17 points.
Port v St Kilda –
For SA based viewers there’s no much more to be written about Ports summer, Dixon in, Ryder and Monfries out. We’ve only read/heard/seen that about 458 times this off season and fair enough, it’s all pretty big news, especially Dixon, he’s as big as they come. At 6 ft 7 in and 110 kegs the big bloke gives Port a real target up front....more later. The Saints had a summer to forget. They went hard at Jake Carlisle and landed him then he went and span chatted himself doing a line to some mates, it got leaked, he got club imposed sanctions then a year to think about it with the Essendon saga. Youch.
Port kick of ’16 looking to quickly erase and make up for what most punters think was a wasted season in 2015. Losses to Carlton and Brisbane sullied a year that saw the Power finish 9th just a game from finals action, but in all reality we never deserved to be there. Throw in Dixon up front to help out Schulz who, all his career, has played the big man in the F50 when he isn’t that big and Westhoff who has never been the hulking key forward. Wingard, Gray (x2) and Neade will be looking forward to big Charlie making some noises down there and defenders will know where the big unit is.
Alan Richardson found a couple of players last year. Tom Hickey showed a bit, he and Billy Longer look like they could form a sound ruck partnership, while Membrey and Bruce look ready to take the key forward spots left over from Reiwoldt who’ll move up the ground in his twilight years, not that he’s a vampire or werewolf. With 6 wins in ’15 and some promising kids learning the Richardson play book Saints fans might finally see light at the end of the tunnel that isn’t a train.
Tough gig for the Saints coming to Adelaide Oval in round 1 to face a Port side looking to hit the season hard and fast. Can’t make much of a case for the Saints here, Port should win comfortably, by 40+
West Coast v Brisbane –
Talk about tough gigs first up....
West Coast welcomed Giles from Port and GWS and Essendon into the club as some back up for Natanui and Lycett, Jetta from Sydney for some speed and ball carrying ability and Redden from Brisbane because, well, everyone leave the Bears. The Bears grabbed Bastinac from North, Bell from Carlton, Walker from Geelong and young gun Schache in the draft. Some midfield depth right away and some targets up front to aim at.
Rough for the Lions first up heading to Perth to take on last years runners up and a side many people fancy to be right there at the end again. Hard to make any sort of case for the Lions to get into this one let alone while missing Beams, Clarke and perhaps Rockcliffe, who at best is under done, and I won’t, the Eagles to win and win big, 60+.
Geelong v Hawthorn –
The Cats bucked the trend of sides around the finals mix by making huge changes on field. They cut the cord on premiership heros Johnson, Kelly and Stokes while McIntosh and Rivers both called it a day to allow the likes of Dangerfield ( had you heard he went there? ), Henderson, Selwood and Smith to come into the club. A midfield gun,a stopper/run with, a swing man and a ruckman make for some pretty solid inculsions to a side looking for all of the above. Premiers Hawthorn didn’t do much, Lake and Hale took the gold watch and left to give others a chance and some kids fell arse backwards into the best set up in the competition when drafted to Glenferrie.
No sides named for this one yet ( or many others ) so I’m going on not much other than feel and with Roughead missing from the Hawks, Hill sidelined and Sheils missing with Lake, Hale and Suckling moved on it will be a different looking Hawks unit come Monday. They’ll still have the same system and structure, so you expect them to be competitive.
I do however fancy the Cats to be the big improver from outside the 8 of last year ( with Port ) and I think they’ll be after a big scalp, none bigger than the Hawks in round 1. The Cats by 11 points.
Last edited by
Booney on Thu Mar 24, 2016 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
PAFC. Forever.
LOOK OUT, WE'RE COMING!
